ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.

Why you should listen

Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably IrrationalThe Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.

Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Dan Ariely: How equal do we want the world to be? You'd be surprised

丹·艾瑞里: 我们想要一个怎样的平等世界?意料之外的答案

Filmed:
1,928,125 views

社会越发不公,这让我们都坐立不安。但是为什么?丹·艾瑞里揭露了一些新颖惊人的研究,研究话题涉及我们对公平以及财富在不同社会阶层如何分布的认知……然后他向我们展示了真实的数据。
- Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

在生活中的很多方面
00:12
It would be nice不错 to be
objective目的 in life,
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保持客观是有益的。
00:15
in many许多 ways方法.
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00:17
The problem问题 is that we have
these color-tinted颜色着色 glasses眼镜
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问题是,我们常常会带着有色眼镜
00:20
as we look at all kinds of situations情况.
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去看待身边的各种事物。
00:25
For example, think about
something as simple简单 as beer啤酒.
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简单来说,以啤酒为例。
00:29
If I gave you a few少数 beers啤酒 to taste味道
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如果我让你品尝一些啤酒,
00:31
and I asked you to rate them
on intensity强度 and bitterness苦味,
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并让你根据烈度和苦味值打分,
00:35
different不同 beers啤酒 would occupy占据
different不同 space空间.
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不同的啤酒会得不同的分数。
00:39
But what if we tried试着
to be objective目的 about it?
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如果我们想客观一些,怎么办?
00:41
In the case案件 of beer啤酒,
it would be very simple简单.
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对于啤酒来说,这很简单。
我们可以做盲品测试。
00:43
What if we did a blind taste味道?
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我们做同样的测试,
让人品尝同样的啤酒,
00:46
Well, if we did the same相同 thing,
you tasted the same相同 beer啤酒,
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00:48
now in the blind taste味道,
things would look slightly different不同.
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但盲品测试的结果会稍有不同。
00:52
Most of the beers啤酒 will go into one place地点.
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大多数啤酒的得分会很相近。
00:55
You will basically基本上 not
be able能够 to distinguish区分 them,
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你基本分辨不出它们的差别。
00:57
and the exception例外, of course课程,
will be Guinness吉尼斯.
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当然,健力士啤酒是个例外。
01:00
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:02
Similarly同样, we can think about physiology生理.
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同样的,生理体验也是一样。
01:05
What happens发生 when people expect期望
something from their physiology生理?
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人们对生理体验有
一定预期的时候会如何呢?
01:08
For example, we sold出售 people
pain疼痛 medications药物治疗.
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比如我们卖给人们一些止痛药。
01:11
Some people, we told them
the medications药物治疗 were expensive昂贵.
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对一些人,我们说药很贵。
01:13
Some people, we told them it was cheap低廉.
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对另一些人,我们说药很便宜。
01:15
And the expensive昂贵
pain疼痛 medication药物治疗 worked工作 better.
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结果是:贵的止痛药似乎更有效果,
01:18
It relieved安心 more pain疼痛 from people,
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更能减轻人们的痛苦。
01:21
because expectations期望
do change更改 our physiology生理.
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这是因为预期会改变生理体验。
01:24
And of course课程, we all know that in sports体育,
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当然,我们都知道,看比赛时,
01:26
if you are a fan风扇 of a particular特定 team球队,
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如果你是其中一支球队的粉丝,
你就只会从那支球队的视角
01:28
you can't help but see the game游戏
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01:31
develop发展 from the perspective透视 of your team球队.
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来看待这场比赛。
01:34
So all of those are cases in which哪一个
our preconceived先入为主 notions概念
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在所有这些案例中,
我们的成见和预期
都会影响自己对世界的观察。
01:38
and our expectations期望 color颜色 our world世界.
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01:42
But what happened发生
in more important重要 questions问题?
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但在重要问题上也是这样吗?
01:45
What happened发生 with questions问题
that had to do with social社会 justice正义?
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比如关于社会正义的问题。
01:49
So we wanted to think about
what is the blind tasting品尝 version
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我们想知道,在贫富差距问题上
01:52
for thinking思维 about inequality不等式?
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进行“盲品测试”会有什么结果?
01:55
So we started开始 looking at inequality不等式,
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所以,我们开始考虑贫富差距,
01:57
and we did some large-scale大规模 surveys调查
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我们在美国和其他国家
01:59
around the U.S. and other countries国家.
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做了一些大规模的调查。
02:02
So we asked two questions问题:
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我们问了两个问题:
人们了解目前的贫富差距吗?
02:04
Do people know what kind of
level水平 of inequality不等式 we have?
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人们理想的贫富差距又是怎样的?
02:07
And then, what level水平 of inequality不等式
do we want to have?
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02:11
So let's think about the first question.
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我们首先看第一个问题。
02:14
Imagine想像 I took all the people in the U.S.
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想象一下,这是美国全部的人口,
02:16
and I sorted分类 them from
the poorest最穷 on the right
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最穷的人排在最右边,
02:19
to the richest首富 on the left,
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最富的人排在最左边。
02:21
and then I divided分为 them into five buckets水桶:
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然后,我把他们分成五组:
每20%一组,最穷的20%人口,
02:24
the poorest最穷 20 percent百分,
the next下一个 20 percent百分,
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02:26
the next下一个, the next下一个,
and the richest首富 20 percent百分.
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以此类推到最富的20%人口。
02:29
And then I asked you to tell me
how much wealth财富 do you think
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然后,我问道:你认为每组人口
02:32
is concentrated集中 in each of those buckets水桶.
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各占有多少财富。
再简单点儿,请告诉我,
02:35
So to make it simpler简单,
imagine想像 I ask you to tell me,
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你认为最穷的两组,
02:37
how much wealth财富 do you think
is concentrated集中
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02:40
in the bottom底部 two buckets水桶,
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也就是最底层的40%人口
02:42
the bottom底部 40 percent百分?
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占有多少财富?
02:44
Take a second第二. Think about it
and have a number.
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想一想,想一个具体的数字。
02:47
Usually平时 we don't think.
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通常我们都不去想。
02:49
Think for a second第二,
have a real真实 number in your mind心神.
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现在想一下,要有一个确实的数字。
02:51
You have it?
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想好了吗?
02:53
Okay, here's这里的 what lots
of Americans美国人 tell us.
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好,这是很多美国人的答案。
02:56
They think that the bottom底部 20 percent百分
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他们认为,最底层的20%人口
02:58
has about 2.9 percent百分 of the wealth财富,
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拥有2.9%的财富,
03:00
the next下一个 group has 6.4,
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稍富的一组拥有6.4%,
03:02
so together一起 it's slightly more than nine.
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所以两者之和略大于9%。
03:05
The next下一个 group, they say, has 12 percent百分,
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下一组,他们说,拥有12%,
03:08
20 percent百分,
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然后是20%,
人们认为,最富的20%人口
拥有58%的财富。
03:10
and the richest首富 20 percent百分, people think
has 58 percent百分 of the wealth财富.
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03:15
You can see how this relates涉及
to what you thought.
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大家可以比较一下自己的想法。
03:18
Now, what's reality现实?
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那么,实际数据是怎样呢?
03:19
Reality现实 is slightly different不同.
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实际数据略有不同。
03:21
The bottom底部 20 percent百分
has 0.1 percent百分 of the wealth财富.
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底层的20%人口拥有0.1%的财富。
03:25
The next下一个 20 percent百分
has 0.2 percent百分 of the wealth财富.
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第二组20%拥有0.2%。
03:28
Together一起, it's 0.3.
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合起来是0.3%。
03:30
The next下一个 group has 3.9,
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再下一组拥有3.9%,
03:34
11.3,
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11.3%,
03:36
and the richest首富 group
has 84-85 percent百分 of the wealth财富.
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最富的一组拥有84%-85%的财富。
03:42
So what we actually其实 have
and what we think we have
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所以,我们的想法跟现实
03:45
are very different不同.
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其实非常不一样。
03:47
What about what we want?
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那么,我们理想的贫富差距是多少?
怎么来计算这个?
03:49
How do we even figure数字 this out?
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为了得到答案,
03:51
So to look at this,
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03:52
to look at what we really want,
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了解我们真正想要什么,
03:54
we thought about
the philosopher哲学家 John约翰 Rawls罗尔斯.
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我们要了解一下哲学家约翰·罗尔斯。
03:57
If you remember记得 John约翰 Rawls罗尔斯,
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你们可能记得,
约翰·罗尔斯有一个
关于公平社会的理念。
03:59
he had this notion概念
of what's a just society社会.
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04:02
He said a just society社会
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他说,公平社会是这样一个社会:
当你了解了这个社会的一切,
04:04
is a society社会 that if
you knew知道 everything about it,
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你仍然愿意成为任何社会阶层中一份子。
04:06
you would be willing愿意
to enter输入 it in a random随机 place地点.
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04:09
And it's a beautiful美丽 definition定义,
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这个定义很精彩,
04:10
because if you're wealthy富裕,
you might威力 want the wealthy富裕
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因为如果你是富人,
你会希望富人更富,穷人更穷。
04:13
to have more money, the poor较差的 to have less.
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04:15
If you're poor较差的, you might威力
want more equality平等.
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如果你是穷人,你会希望缩小贫富差距。
04:17
But if you're going
to go into that society社会
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但是,如果你进入社会,
04:19
in every一切 possible可能 situation情况,
and you don't know,
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但不知道自己会处于哪个阶层,
04:22
you have to consider考虑 all the aspects方面.
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你不得不考虑所有的方面。
04:24
It's a little bit like blind tasting品尝
in which哪一个 you don't know
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这有点像盲品测试,
04:27
what the outcome结果 will be
when you make a decision决定,
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选择的时候,连自己也不知道结果,
04:30
and Rawls罗尔斯 called this
the "veil面纱 of ignorance无知."
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罗尔斯把这叫做“无知之幕”。
04:34
So, we took another另一个 group,
a large group of Americans美国人,
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所以,我们找来另一组美国人,
04:37
and we asked them the question
in the veil面纱 of ignorance无知.
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基于“无知之幕”,我们问他们:
04:40
What are the characteristics特点 of a country国家
that would make you want to join加入 it,
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如果你可能进入社会的任一阶层,
04:44
knowing会心 that you could end结束
randomly随机 at any place地点?
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你希望你的国家有哪些特质?
04:47
And here is what we got.
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这是我们得到的结果。
04:49
What did people want to give
to the first group,
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第一组,即底层的20%人口,
人们想给这一组分配多少财富呢?
04:51
the bottom底部 20 percent百分?
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04:53
They wanted to give them
about 10 percent百分 of the wealth财富.
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人们愿意给这一组10%的财富。
04:56
The next下一个 group, 14 percent百分 of the wealth财富,
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下一组是14%的财富,
04:59
21, 22 and 32.
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接着是21%,22%,最后是32%。
05:04
Now, nobody没有人 in our sample样品
wanted full充分 equality平等.
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注意:我们的样本里,
没人想要绝对的平等。
05:07
Nobody没有人 thought that socialism社会主义
is a fantastic奇妙 idea理念 in our sample样品.
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我们的研究中,没人认为
社会主义是一个好主意。
05:12
But what does it mean?
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这意味着什么?
05:13
It means手段 that we have this knowledge知识 gap间隙
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这意味着,
在现实和认知之间存在差距,
05:15
between之间 what we have
and what we think we have,
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05:18
but we have at least最小 as big a gap间隙
between之间 what we think is right
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而我们的理想和认知之间,
05:22
to what we think we have.
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也同样存在着差距。
05:24
Now, we can ask these questions问题,
by the way, not just about wealth财富.
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另外,这些问题不仅限于财富的角度,
05:28
We can ask it about other things as well.
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我们也能从其他角度来做测验。
05:30
So for example, we asked people
from different不同 parts部分 of the world世界
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比如,我们针对世界不同地方的人
05:34
about this question,
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做了这个测验。
05:36
people who are liberals自由主义者 and conservatives保守派,
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我们问了自由主义者和保守主义者,
05:38
and they gave us basically基本上
the same相同 answer回答.
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他们给了我们大致相同的答案。
05:40
We asked rich丰富 and poor较差的,
they gave us the same相同 answer回答,
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我们问了富人和穷人,也是相同的答案,
05:43
men男人 and women妇女,
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男人和女人,
全国公共广播电台(NPR)的听众
和《福布斯》的读者。
05:44
NPR美国国家公共电台 listeners听众 and Forbes福布斯 readers读者.
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05:47
We asked people in England英国,
Australia澳大利亚, the U.S. --
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我们问了英格兰人,
澳大利亚人,美国人……
05:50
very similar类似 answers答案.
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答案基本相同。
05:52
We even asked different不同
departments部门 of a university大学.
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我们甚至问了大学里不同学院的人。
05:54
We went to Harvard哈佛 and we checked检查
almost几乎 every一切 department,
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我们去哈佛,
问了几乎每个学院的学生,
05:57
and in fact事实, from Harvard哈佛 Business商业 School学校,
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事实上,哈佛商学院的学生中,
05:59
where a few少数 people wanted the wealthy富裕
to have more and the [poor较差的] to have less,
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一些人希望富人更富或者更穷,
相似度是惊人的。
06:03
the similarity相似 was astonishing惊人.
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06:05
I know some of you went
to Harvard哈佛 Business商业 School学校.
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我知道,这儿有些人上过哈佛商学院。
06:08
We also asked this question
about something else其他.
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我们也测验了其他话题。
06:12
We asked, what about the ratio
of CEOCEO pay工资 to unskilled不熟练 workers工人?
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比如,CEO跟非技术人员的收入比率。
06:17
So you can see what
people think is the ratio,
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这是人们认为的比率,
06:20
and then we can ask the question,
what do they think should be the ratio?
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然后我们问,理想比率应该是多少。
06:24
And then we can ask, what is reality现实?
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我们也可以问,现实比率是多少。
06:26
What is reality现实? And you could say,
well, it's not that bad, right?
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现实是多少?
你也许会说,还算合理啊,
06:30
The red and the yellow黄色
are not that different不同.
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橘色跟黄色没差那么多。
06:32
But the fact事实 is, it's because
I didn't draw them on the same相同 scale规模.
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不过,这是因为我用了不同的比例尺。
06:38
It's hard to see, there's yellow黄色
and blue蓝色 in there.
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这下很难看到中间的黄色和蓝色了吧。
06:42
So what about other outcomes结果 of wealth财富?
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那么财富衍生品方面,
测试结果又如何呢?
财富不只是金钱意义上的财富,
06:44
Wealth财富 is not just about wealth财富.
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我们也问了关于:健康,
06:46
We asked, what about things like health健康?
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06:48
What about availability可用性
of prescription处方 medication药物治疗?
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处方药物治疗的供给,
06:52
What about life expectancy期待?
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平均寿命,
婴儿的预期寿命。
06:54
What about life expectancy期待 of infants婴儿?
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06:57
How do we want this to be distributed分散式?
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我们想要怎样的数据分布呢?
06:59
What about education教育 for young年轻 people?
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还有年轻人的教育,
07:02
And for older旧的 people?
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以及成年人的教育。
07:04
And across横过 all of those things,
what we learned学到了 was that people
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通过测试这些方面,
我们发现人们不喜欢贫富差距,
07:07
don't like inequality不等式 of wealth财富,
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07:10
but there's other things where inequality不等式,
which哪一个 is an outcome结果 of wealth财富,
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但更不喜欢、甚至厌恶
其他方面的不平等,
07:13
is even more aversive厌恶 to them:
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而这些恰恰是贫富差距的结果:
07:15
for example, inequality不等式
in health健康 or education教育.
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比如,健康或教育的不平等。
07:19
We also learned学到了 that people
are particularly尤其 open打开
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我们也发现,当谈论到
能动性较低的人群的时候——
07:22
to changes变化 in equality平等
when it comes to people
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比如孩子或者婴儿——
07:24
who have less agency机构 --
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人们更愿意改变这种不平等,
07:26
basically基本上, young年轻 kids孩子 and babies婴儿,
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07:29
because we don't think of them
as responsible主管 for their situation情况.
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因为我们认为,这类人群
无法对自己的情况负责。
07:34
So what are some lessons教训 from this?
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那么,我们可以从中学到什么呢?
07:36
We have two gaps空白:
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我们有两种差距:
07:37
We have a knowledge知识 gap间隙
and we have a desirability可取 gap间隙
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现实跟认知的差距,以及
认知跟理想的差距。
07:40
And the knowledge知识 gap间隙
is something that we think about,
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先考虑现实跟认知的差距,
07:42
how do we educate教育 people?
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我们要怎样去教育人们?
07:44
How do we get people to think
differently不同 about inequality不等式
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怎样让人们更好地认识贫富差距,
07:46
and the consequences后果 of inequality不等式
in terms条款 of health健康, education教育,
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以及贫富差距所带来的后果?
07:50
jealousy妒忌, crime犯罪 rate, and so on?
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譬如健康、教育、嫉妒、犯罪率等等。
07:52
Then we have the desirability可取 gap间隙.
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然后是认知跟理想的差距。
07:54
How do we get people to think differently不同
about what we really want?
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我们怎样让人们更好地认识
他们到底想要什么?
07:58
You see, the Rawls罗尔斯 definition定义,
the Rawls罗尔斯 way of looking at the world世界,
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罗尔斯的定义,他观察世界的方式,
08:02
the blind tasting品尝 approach途径,
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这种盲品测试,
屏蔽了自私的动机。
08:03
takes our selfish自私 motivation动机
out of the picture图片.
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08:06
How do we implement实行 that
to a higher更高 degree
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我们怎样能在更大程度、
更广的范围内
08:09
on a more extensive广泛 scale规模?
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来应用这个思路?
08:11
And finally最后, we also have an action行动 gap间隙.
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最后,我们还有理想跟行动的差距。
08:14
How do we take these things
and actually其实 do something about it?
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我们怎样才能把这些转化成行动?
08:17
I think part部分 of the answer回答
is to think about people
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我认为,首先我们可以多想想
08:20
like young年轻 kids孩子 and babies婴儿
that don't have much agency机构,
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缺乏能动性的人,比如孩子或婴儿,
08:23
because people seem似乎 to be
more willing愿意 to do this.
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因为人们更愿意考虑这些人。
08:27
To summarize总结, I would say,
next下一个 time you go to drink beer啤酒 or wine红酒,
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总之,下一次你喝啤酒、葡萄酒,
08:32
first of all, think about, what is it
in your experience经验 that is real真实,
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可以先想一想,
你的体验有哪些是真实的,
08:36
and what is it in your experience经验
that is a placebo安慰剂 effect影响
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又有哪些是来自预期的安慰剂效应?
08:40
coming未来 from expectations期望?
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08:41
And then think about what it also means手段
for other decisions决定 in your life,
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也要好好想想,这对
我们个人生活中的其他决策,
对影响我们所有人的
政策方面的问题
08:45
and hopefully希望 also for policy政策 questions问题
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08:47
that affect影响 all of us.
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能有什么启迪。
08:48
Thanks谢谢 a lot.
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非常感谢。
08:50
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Hongfeng Ge
Reviewed by Xingyi Ouyang 歐陽杏儀

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.

Why you should listen

Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably IrrationalThe Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.

Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com