TED2018
Charles C. Mann: How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion?
查尔斯 C. 曼恩: 当地球人口达到100亿时，我们将如何生存？
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2,753,413 views
据估计，到2050年，地球将会居住100亿人口。我们该怎样在避免极端气候变化带来影响的同时，给每个人提供基本的需求？在这个富有理性与智慧的演讲中，科学记者查尔斯 C. 曼恩打破了传统的束缚，发现答案将来源于两个对立的群体：”奇才“与“先知”，同时也分享了他个人对于这个问题的看法。
Charles C. Mann - Science journalist
Charles C. Mann calls himself "a fella who tries to find out interesting things and tell others about them." Full bio
Charles C. Mann calls himself "a fella who tries to find out interesting things and tell others about them." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
How are we doing?
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我们最近过得怎么样？
00:14
No, no, no, by that, I meant,
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哦不，我的意思是，
最近，身为现代人的“我们”...
00:16
how are we, homo sapiens "we" ...
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00:17
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
作为一个物种，过得怎么样？
00:18
doing as a species?
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00:20
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
关于这个问题的回答，
很典型的一类就是，
很典型的一类就是，
00:21
Now the typical way
to answer that question is this.
to answer that question is this.
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选择一些描述人们身体状况的词：
00:23
You choose some measure
of human physical well-being:
of human physical well-being:
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平均寿命，每天平均的食物摄入量，
00:26
average longevity,
average calories per day,
average calories per day,
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平均收入，总人口等等，
00:29
average income, overall population,
that sort of thing,
that sort of thing,
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然后画一个随时间变化的曲线。
00:32
and draw a graph of its value over time.
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00:35
In almost every case,
you get the same result.
you get the same result.
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在几乎所有的情况下，
你得到的都是同样的结果。
你得到的都是同样的结果。
在几千年的时间线上，变化
都是处于一个较低的水平，
都是处于一个较低的水平，
00:37
The line skitters along
at a low level for millennia,
at a low level for millennia,
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随后在19世纪和20世纪
以指数方式猛涨。
以指数方式猛涨。
00:40
then rockets up exponentially
in the 19th and 20th century.
in the 19th and 20th century.
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00:44
Or choose a measure of consumption:
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或者以消耗量为单位：
消耗了多少能源，用了多少水，
00:47
consumption of energy,
consumption of fresh water,
consumption of fresh water,
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消耗了多少光合作用，
00:49
consumption of the world's photosynthesis,
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再画一个随时间变化的曲线。
00:51
and draw a graph of its value over time.
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00:53
In the same way, the line skitters along
at a low level for millennia,
at a low level for millennia,
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同样，时间线在几千年来
还是处于低值，且变化平缓，
还是处于低值，且变化平缓，
在19世纪与20世纪
以指数方式猛涨。
以指数方式猛涨。
00:57
then rockets up exponentially
in the 19th and 20th century.
in the 19th and 20th century.
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01:02
Biologists have a word for this: outbreak.
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生物学家对此的解释是：生物爆炸。
01:05
An outbreak is when
a population or species
a population or species
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生物爆炸指的就是一种物种的数量
超出了自然界所能承受的范围。
01:08
exceeds the bounds of natural selection.
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通常来说，自然选择在大致范围内
01:10
Natural selection ordinarily
keeps populations and species
keeps populations and species
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01:13
within roughly defined limits.
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控制了人口和物种的数量。
01:16
Pests, parasites, lack of resources
prevent them from expanding too much.
prevent them from expanding too much.
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害虫，寄生虫，资源缺乏等
因素，导致它们无法过度繁殖。
因素，导致它们无法过度繁殖。
01:20
But every now and then,
a species escapes its bounds.
a species escapes its bounds.
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但偶尔，一些物种
也会突破自身的边界。
也会突破自身的边界。
01:24
Crown-of-thorns starfish
in the Indian Ocean,
in the Indian Ocean,
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比如印度洋的棘冠海星，
01:26
zebra mussels in the Great Lakes,
spruce budworm here in Canada.
spruce budworm here in Canada.
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北美五大湖的斑马贻贝，
加拿大的云杉蚜虫。
加拿大的云杉蚜虫。
这些生物数量是呈百倍，千倍，
01:30
Populations explode,
a hundredfold, a thousandfold,
a hundredfold, a thousandfold,
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甚至是万倍增长的。
01:33
a millionfold.
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01:35
So here's a fundamental
lesson from biology:
lesson from biology:
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下面是一个生物学中普遍的教训：
01:37
outbreaks in nature don't end well.
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自然界中的生物爆炸
通常没什么好结果。
通常没什么好结果。
01:40
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:41
Put a couple of protozoa
into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.
into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.
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把几种单细胞生物放入
一个有营养物质的培养皿中，
一个有营养物质的培养皿中，
01:46
In their natural habitat, soil or water,
their environment constrains them.
their environment constrains them.
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在它们的自然环境中，土壤
或水分等因素限制了它们的繁衍。
或水分等因素限制了它们的繁衍。
01:50
In the petri dish, they have
an ocean of breakfast
an ocean of breakfast
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而在培养皿中，它们营养充足，
并且没有天敌。
01:53
and no natural enemies.
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01:54
They eat and reproduce, eat and reproduce,
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它们不断地摄入与繁殖，
直到有一天，它们撑爆了培养皿，
01:57
until bang, they hit
the edge of the petri dish,
the edge of the petri dish,
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01:59
at which point they either
drown in their own waste,
drown in their own waste,
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只能要么淹没在自己的排泄物中，
要么因缺乏营养而饿死，
或者两者兼有之。
或者两者兼有之。
02:01
starve from lack of resources, or both.
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生物爆炸总是以糟糕的方式结束。
02:03
The outbreak ends, always, badly.
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02:06
Now, from the viewpoint of biology,
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从生物学的方面来看，
02:09
you and I are not fundamentally different
than the protozoa in the petri dish.
than the protozoa in the petri dish.
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你和我比起培养皿中的单细胞生物，
并没有什么本质上的区别，
并没有什么本质上的区别，
02:13
We're not special.
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我们并不特殊。
02:17
All the things that we, in our vanity,
think make us different --
think make us different --
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我们因虚荣心而认为，
思想使得我们与众不同，
思想使得我们与众不同，
艺术，科技等等，但这些都不重要。
02:20
art, science, technology, and so forth,
they don't matter.
they don't matter.
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我们就是一种生物爆炸的物种，
02:23
We're an outbreak species,
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我们就要撑爆我们的
培养皿了，就这么简单。
培养皿了，就这么简单。
02:24
we're going to hit the edge
of the petri dish, simple as that.
of the petri dish, simple as that.
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不过有个显而易见的问题：
这会是真的吗？
这会是真的吗？
02:28
Well, the obvious question:
Is this actually true?
Is this actually true?
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02:31
Are we in fact doomed
to hit the edge of the petri dish?
to hit the edge of the petri dish?
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我们的人口真的会达到极限吗？
我暂且先把这个问题放一放，
02:34
I'd like to set aside
this question for a moment
this question for a moment
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来问大家另一个问题。
02:36
and ask you guys another one.
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如果我们能够突破
生物爆炸的宿命，要怎么做呢？
生物爆炸的宿命，要怎么做呢？
02:38
If we are going to escape biology,
how are we going to do it?
how are we going to do it?
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02:42
In the year 2050,
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到2050年，
地球上将会有100亿人口，
02:43
there will be almost
10 billion people in the world,
10 billion people in the world,
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并且我们想要的东西，
这些人也都会需要：
这些人也都会需要：
02:46
and all of those people will want
the things that you and I want:
the things that you and I want:
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豪车，名牌衣服，大别墅，
02:49
nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes,
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奇奇怪怪的三角巧克力。
02:52
the odd chunk of Toblerone.
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02:55
I mean, think of it:
Toblerone for 10 billion people.
Toblerone for 10 billion people.
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假设把三角巧克力分给100亿个人。
要怎么实现呢？
02:57
How are we going to do this?
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我们怎么给每个人
足够的食物，足够的水，
足够的食物，足够的水，
02:59
How are we going to feed everybody,
get water to everybody,
get water to everybody,
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让每个人保持足够的体力
来应对最极端的气候变化？
来应对最极端的气候变化？
03:02
provide power to everybody,
avoid the worst impacts of climate change?
avoid the worst impacts of climate change?
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我是一名科学记者，
03:05
I'm a science journalist,
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这些年来我一直在
问专家们这些问题，
问专家们这些问题，
03:07
and I've been asking these questions
to researchers for years,
to researchers for years,
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以我的经验看来，他们的回答
大体可分为两大类，
大体可分为两大类，
03:10
and in my experience, their answers
fall into two broad categories,
fall into two broad categories,
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就是我说的“奇才”和“先知”。
03:14
which I call "wizards" and "prophets."
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03:16
Wizards, techno-whizzes,
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奇才，也就是所谓的技术宅，
03:18
believe that science and technology,
properly applied,
properly applied,
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认为恰当地运用科技，
会让我们找到摆脱困境的方法。
03:21
will let us produce
our way out of our dilemmas.
our way out of our dilemmas.
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他们会说：“机灵点，提高生产力。
03:24
"Be smart, make more," they say.
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那样的话，每个人都会生存下来。”
03:26
"That way, everyone can win."
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03:28
Prophets believe close to the opposite.
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先知们则认为恰恰相反。
03:31
They see the world as governed
by fundamental ecological processes
by fundamental ecological processes
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他们认为世界有一种
基本的生态法则，
基本的生态法则，
而我们必须遵守这个法则，
不然就要自食其果。
不然就要自食其果。
03:35
with limits that we
transgress to our peril.
transgress to our peril.
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03:39
"Use less, conserve," they say.
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他们会说“少用点，存起来，
不然的话，每个人都得饿死。”
03:41
"Otherwise, everybody's going to lose."
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03:44
Wizards and prophets have been
butting their heads together for decades,
butting their heads together for decades,
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几十年来，奇才与先知的
观点一直处于对立的状态，
观点一直处于对立的状态，
但他们都认为，科技是一把
通向美好明天的钥匙。
通向美好明天的钥匙。
03:47
but they both believe that technology
is key to a successful future.
is key to a successful future.
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分歧在于，他们所预想的科技和未来
03:51
The trouble is, they envision
different types of technology
different types of technology
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都是不一样的。
03:54
and different types of futures.
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03:56
Wizards envision a world of glittering,
hyperefficient megacities
hyperefficient megacities
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奇才们认为世界上都是
灯火辉煌的，高效率的大城市，
灯火辉煌的，高效率的大城市，
被周围广阔的原生态自然所包围着，
04:02
surrounded by vast tracts
of untouched nature,
of untouched nature,
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经济体从实体经济转向数字经济，
04:05
economies that have
transitioned from atoms to bits,
transitioned from atoms to bits,
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非物质化的资本主义社会
04:07
dematerialized capitalist societies
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不再依赖于剥削自然。
04:09
that no longer depend
on exploiting nature.
on exploiting nature.
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04:12
Energy, to wizards,
comes from compact nuclear plants;
comes from compact nuclear plants;
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在奇才们看来，能源来自于核电站，
04:15
food from low-footprint farms
with ultraproductive,
with ultraproductive,
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来自于高生产力的小农场
生产的转基因食物，
生产的转基因食物，
04:18
genetically modified crops
tended by robots;
tended by robots;
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并且这些庄稼都由机器人看管；
水源都来自于高流通量的
海水淡化工厂，
海水淡化工厂，
04:21
water from high-throughput
desalination plants,
desalination plants,
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04:23
which means we no longer
exploit rivers and aquifers.
exploit rivers and aquifers.
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这就意味着我们不再需要
利用河流与地下水。
利用河流与地下水。
04:27
Wizards envision all 10 billion of us
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这些人假设把我们100亿人，
04:29
packed into ultradense
but walkable megacities,
but walkable megacities,
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全部塞进一个交通便捷的特大城市，
04:31
an urbanized world
of maximum human aspiration
of maximum human aspiration
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这是一个全人类的美好愿景：
04:34
and maximum human liberty.
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高度自由化的超级城市化世界。
04:36
Now, prophets object to every bit of this.
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而先知们则反对这一切说辞。
他们指出，你不能抹去
水和食物的物质形态，
水和食物的物质形态，
04:40
You can't dematerialize
food and water, they point out.
food and water, they point out.
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04:43
They say, you can't eat bits,
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你不可能以吃比特为生吧，
04:45
and industrial agriculture has already
given us massive soil erosion,
given us massive soil erosion,
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而且工业化农业生产已经给我们
造成了严重的水土流失，
造成了严重的水土流失，
造成海洋水体富营养化，
微生物群落被摧毁。
微生物群落被摧毁。
04:49
huge coastal dead zones
and ruined soil microbiomes.
and ruined soil microbiomes.
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04:52
And you wizards, you want more of this?
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那我问你们，这些土地
都贫瘠成这副样子了，
都贫瘠成这副样子了，
04:54
And those giant desalination plants?
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还想着建你们的海水淡化工厂？
毕竟，它们会产生大量的有毒盐，
04:56
You know they generate
equally giant piles of toxic salt
equally giant piles of toxic salt
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而这些基本上都是不可能处理掉的。
04:59
that are basically
impossible to dispose of.
impossible to dispose of.
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05:02
And those megacities you like?
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这就是你喜欢的超级城市？
05:04
Can you name me
an actually existing megacity
an actually existing megacity
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你能给我列出一座现实世界存在的
05:07
that really exists in the world today,
except for possibly Tokyo,
except for possibly Tokyo,
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这种城市吗，除了东京之外，
而且看着还不像一个
腐败和不平等的污浊之地？
腐败和不平等的污浊之地？
05:10
that isn't a cesspool
of corruption and inequality?
of corruption and inequality?
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05:15
Instead, prophets pray for a world
of smaller, interconnected communities,
of smaller, interconnected communities,
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相反地，先知们希望这个世界
是一个更小型的，相互关联的社区，
是一个更小型的，相互关联的社区，
05:21
closer to the earth,
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与自然相处更和谐，
05:23
a more agrarian world
of maximum human connection
of maximum human connection
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一个全人类紧密相连的农业世界，
没有任何商业纷争。
05:26
and reduced corporate control.
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05:30
More people live
in the countryside in this vision,
in the countryside in this vision,
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在这个愿景中，更多的人居住在乡下，
05:32
with power provided by neighborhood-scale
solar and wind installations
solar and wind installations
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用全社区规模的太阳能
与对环境无破坏的
与对环境无破坏的
风力发电机来提供电力。
05:36
that disappear into the background.
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05:38
Prophets don't generate water
from giant desalination plants.
from giant desalination plants.
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先知们才不会用淡化工厂来提取水呢，
05:44
They capture it from rainfall,
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他们在降雨中获得水分，
05:46
and they reuse and recycle it endlessly.
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并且不断地重复使用和循环利用。
05:49
And the food comes
from small-scale networks of farms
from small-scale networks of farms
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食物呢，则有小型的网络型农场，
专门栽种树木和薯类，
05:53
that focus on trees and tubers
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而不是像大米小麦这样产量低的谷物。
05:55
rather than less productive cereals
like wheat and rice.
like wheat and rice.
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06:01
Above all, though, prophets envision
people changing their habits.
people changing their habits.
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最重要的是，先知们希望人们
能够改变他们的生活方式。
能够改变他们的生活方式。
他们不用开车上班，
而是乘坐可再生能源列车。
而是乘坐可再生能源列车。
06:05
They don't drive to work,
they take their renewable-powered train.
they take their renewable-powered train.
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他们每天早上不用再
花30分钟来洗个热水澡。
花30分钟来洗个热水澡。
06:08
They don't take 30-minute
hot showers every morning.
hot showers every morning.
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像迈克尔 · 波伦说的，
06:10
They eat, you know,
like Michael Pollan says,
like Michael Pollan says,
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他们吃的是真正的食物，
绝大多数是素食，还要控制食量。
绝大多数是素食，还要控制食量。
06:13
real food, mostly plants, not too much.
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06:17
Above all, prophets say
submitting to nature's restraints
submitting to nature's restraints
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最重要的就是，先知们提倡利用
地球母亲给我们提供的一切，
地球母亲给我们提供的一切，
06:21
leads to a freer, more democratic,
healthier way of life.
healthier way of life.
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引领一个更自由，更民主，
更健康的生活方式。
更健康的生活方式。
06:26
Now, wizards regard all this as hooey.
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不过，奇才们则认为
这些都是异想天开。
这些都是异想天开。
他们觉得这会导致狭隘，
倒退，以及全球性的贫困。
倒退，以及全球性的贫困。
06:29
They see it as a recipe for narrowness,
regression, and global poverty.
regression, and global poverty.
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06:34
Prophet-style agriculture, they say,
only extends the human footprint
only extends the human footprint
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他们认为“先知”式的农业
就是扩展人类的足迹，
就是扩展人类的足迹，
06:37
and shunts more people
into low-wage agricultural labor.
into low-wage agricultural labor.
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给更多的人分配低薪的农务。
06:40
Those neighborhood-run solar facilities,
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那些在社区使用的太阳能装置，
听起来还不错，
06:42
they sound great,
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但依赖于一种
尚未开发出来的技术手段，
尚未开发出来的技术手段，
06:44
but they depend on a technology
that doesn't exist yet.
that doesn't exist yet.
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完全是痴人说梦。
06:47
They're a fantasy.
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06:49
And recycling water? It's a brake
on growth and development.
on growth and development.
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再说循环利用的水，这就是
限制社会发展的一颗毒瘤。
限制社会发展的一颗毒瘤。
06:51
Above all, though, wizards object
to the prophets' emphasis
to the prophets' emphasis
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最重要的是，
奇才们反对先知们在
大规模社会生产上的观点，
大规模社会生产上的观点，
06:55
on wide-scale social engineering,
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06:57
which they see as deeply anti-democratic.
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他们认为这是完全反民主的。
07:01
If the history of the last two centuries
was one of unbridled growth,
was one of unbridled growth,
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如果过去两个世纪的历史
是无节制增长的话，
是无节制增长的话，
07:05
the history of the coming century
may well be the choice we make
may well be the choice we make
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那么下一个世纪的历史很可能是，
我们作为一个物种
在这两条道路之间做出的选择。
在这两条道路之间做出的选择。
07:08
as a species between these two paths.
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07:11
These are the arguments that will be
resolved, in one way or another,
resolved, in one way or another,
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这些问题不管怎样，都会被我们的
下一代给解决掉，
07:14
by our children's generation,
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终将成为构成100亿人口的下一代人。
07:16
the generation that will come
into the world of 10 billion.
into the world of 10 billion.
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07:19
Now, but wait, by this point,
biologists should be rolling their eyes
biologists should be rolling their eyes
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等会儿，生物学家们
现在应该对此嗤之以鼻，
现在应该对此嗤之以鼻，
它们的反对之声大到
你都听不到我说话了。
你都听不到我说话了。
07:22
so loud you can barely hear me speak.
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07:24
They should be saying,
all of this, wizards, prophets,
all of this, wizards, prophets,
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他们铁定会说，所有这些
“奇才”，“先知”之类的，
“奇才”，“先知”之类的，
都是白日梦。
07:28
it's a pipe dream.
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07:29
It doesn't matter which illusory path
you think you're taking.
you think you're taking.
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你认为你做的是
什么白日梦并不重要。
什么白日梦并不重要。
07:34
Outbreaks in nature don't end well.
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自然界的生物爆炸注定没有好结果。
07:37
I mean, you think the protozoa
see the edge of the petri dish approaching
see the edge of the petri dish approaching
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我是说，你以为单细胞动物
看到了培养皿的边缘正在靠近，
看到了培养皿的边缘正在靠近，
然后说，"朋友们，我们是不是
该改变一下社会结构了？”
该改变一下社会结构了？”
07:40
and say, "Hey guys,
time to change society"?
time to change society"?
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不，它们只会继续。
07:42
No. They just let her rip.
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这就是生命，我们也是
这个生命的一部分。
这个生命的一部分。
07:44
That's what life does,
and we're part of life.
and we're part of life.
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07:47
We'll do the same thing. Deal with it.
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我们也会做同样的事。
直面这个事实吧。
直面这个事实吧。
07:50
Well, if you're a follower of Darwin,
you have to take this into consideration.
you have to take this into consideration.
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如果你是达尔文的追随者，
就必须考虑到这一点。
就必须考虑到这一点。
07:56
I mean, the basic counterargument
boils down to: "We're special."
boils down to: "We're special."
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基本的反驳可以归结为：
“我们是特殊的。”
“我们是特殊的。”
08:00
How lame is that?
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是不是挺厚颜无耻的？
（笑声）
08:02
(Laughter)
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08:03
I mean, we can accumulate
and share knowledge
and share knowledge
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我们可以积累和分享知识，
再用知识来引领我们的未来。
08:05
and use it to guide our future.
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但我们真的在行动了吗？
08:07
Well, are we actually doing this?
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08:09
Is there any evidence that we're actually
using our accumulated, shared knowledge
using our accumulated, shared knowledge
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有什么证据能够证明
我们在用我们所积攒的知识，
我们在用我们所积攒的知识，
08:15
to guarantee our long-term prosperity?
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来保证我们长期的繁荣呢？
08:18
It's pretty easy to say no.
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答案显而易见是否定的。
08:20
If you're a wizard,
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如果你站在奇才那边，
08:21
and you believe that hyperproductive,
genetically engineered crops
genetically engineered crops
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并且相信高产转基因作物
08:24
are key to feeding everyone
in tomorrow's world,
in tomorrow's world,
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在未来能够保证每个人的温饱的话，
那你就不得不担心，
08:27
you have to worry that 20 years
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20年来科学家一直在证明
转基因食物是安全的，
转基因食物是安全的，
08:29
of scientists demonstrating
that they are safe to consume
that they are safe to consume
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08:32
has failed to convince the public
to embrace this technology.
to embrace this technology.
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却没能够说服公众接受这项技术。
08:35
If you're a prophet
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如果你是先知的话，
08:36
and you believe that key to solving
today's growing shortage of fresh water
today's growing shortage of fresh water
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你也相信解决如今
水资源短缺的唯一关键
水资源短缺的唯一关键
08:41
is to stop wasting it,
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1951
就是节约用水，
08:43
you have to worry
that cities around the world,
that cities around the world,
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那你也不得不担心
世界上所有的城市里，
世界上所有的城市里，
08:46
in rich places as well as poor,
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不管是富裕还是贫穷的地方，
08:48
routinely lose a quarter
or more of their water
or more of their water
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通常都会因为破损
和受到污染的管道，
和受到污染的管道，
浪费掉至少四分之一的水。
08:50
to leaky and contaminated pipes.
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08:53
I mean, Cape Town, just a little
while ago, almost ran out of water.
while ago, almost ran out of water.
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举个例子，前阵子
开普敦差点就没水用了。
开普敦差点就没水用了。
开普敦有三分之一的水
是因管道漏水而流失的。
是因管道漏水而流失的。
08:57
Cape Town loses a third
of its water to leaky pipes.
of its water to leaky pipes.
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几十年来这个问题一直在恶化，
08:59
This problem has been
getting worse for decades,
getting worse for decades,
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让人无语的是，人们在这个问题上
几乎没有采取任何措施。
几乎没有采取任何措施。
09:02
and remarkably little
has been done about it.
has been done about it.
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09:04
If you're a wizard, and you think
that clean, abundant,
that clean, abundant,
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如果你是一个奇才的话，
你会认为清洁、丰富、
你会认为清洁、丰富、
09:07
carbon-free nuclear power
is key to fighting climate change,
is key to fighting climate change,
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无碳的核能是对抗气候变化的关键，
09:10
then you have to worry
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那你就不得不考虑
09:12
that the public willingness
to build nukes is going down.
to build nukes is going down.
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公众对于建造核电站的意愿正在下降。
09:15
If you're a prophet, and you think
that the solution to the same problem
that the solution to the same problem
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如果你是先知，你觉得
解决同样问题的关键是
解决同样问题的关键是
靠这些社区运营的太阳能设施
来回运送的电力的话，
来回运送的电力的话，
09:18
is these neighborhood-run solar facilities
shuttling power back and forth,
shuttling power back and forth,
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你就不得不考虑，
这世上是否有哪个国家
这世上是否有哪个国家
09:22
you have to worry that no nation
anywhere in the world
anywhere in the world
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09:25
has devoted anything like the resources
necessary to develop this technology
necessary to develop this technology
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真正投入了开发
这项技术所需的资源，
这项技术所需的资源，
并且在我们需要的时候能够部署它。
09:29
and deploy it in the time that we need it.
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如果你是任意一方，奇才或先知，
09:31
And if you're on either side,
wizard or prophet,
wizard or prophet,
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你得考虑，尽管气候变化的
严重预警早已出现，
严重预警早已出现，
09:34
you have to worry that, despite
the massive alarm about climate change,
the massive alarm about climate change,
195
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09:38
the amount of energy generated every year
from fossil fuels has gone up
from fossil fuels has gone up
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3953
自本世纪初以来，每年从化石燃料中
产生的能量增加了约30%。
09:42
by about 30 percent
since the beginning of this century.
since the beginning of this century.
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3331
09:46
So, still think we're different
than the protozoa?
than the protozoa?
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3317
那么，你还认为我们
和单细胞动物不一样吗?
和单细胞动物不一样吗?
09:50
Still think we're special?
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2270
还觉得我们很特别吗？
09:54
Actually, it's even worse than that.
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实际情况其实更加糟糕。
（笑声)
09:56
(Laughter)
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我们又不是在市区。
09:59
We're not in the streets.
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说真的，如果说我们与单细胞动物
之间存在什么差异的话，
之间存在什么差异的话，
10:00
No seriously, if there's a difference
between us and the protozoa,
between us and the protozoa,
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3175
10:04
a difference that matters,
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1542
一个重要的差异
10:05
it's not just our art and science
and technology and so forth --
and technology and so forth --
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3077
并不是我们的艺术和科技等等——
而是我们可以走到大街上，
我们可以大喊大叫，
我们可以大喊大叫，
10:08
it's that we can yell and scream,
we can go out into the streets,
we can go out into the streets,
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3231
10:11
and, over time,
change the way society works,
change the way society works,
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随着时间的推移，
改变了社会的运作方式，
改变了社会的运作方式，
但我们并没有。
10:14
but we're not doing it.
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几十年来，奇才们一直在争论
10:15
Wizards have been arguing
literally for decades
literally for decades
209
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2424
10:17
that nuclear power is key
to resolving climate change.
to resolving climate change.
210
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4976
核能是不是解决气候变化的关键。
10:24
But the first pro-nuke march in history
occurred less than two years ago,
occurred less than two years ago,
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但历史上第一次支持核武器的
游行就发生在不到两年前，
游行就发生在不到两年前，
与过去的反核武器游行相比，
它显得相形见绌。
它显得相形见绌。
10:28
and it was dwarfed by the anti-nuke
marches of the past.
marches of the past.
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3262
先知们几十年来一直在争论，
10:31
Prophets have been arguing,
again literally for decades,
again literally for decades,
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3126
10:34
that conservation is key
to keeping freshwater supplies
to keeping freshwater supplies
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622863
3763
在不破坏产生淡水供应的
生态系统的前提下，
生态系统的前提下，
10:38
without destroying the ecosystems
that generate those freshwater supplies.
that generate those freshwater supplies.
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保持淡水供应的关键就是贮存。
但在人类历史上，
从来没有任何一条街挤满了
从来没有任何一条街挤满了
10:42
But in the history of humankind,
there has never been a street
there has never been a street
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挥舞着写着破旧管道
标语的愤怒的抗议者。
标语的愤怒的抗议者。
10:45
full of angry protesters
waving signs about leaky pipes.
waving signs about leaky pipes.
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2917
10:48
In fact, most of the political
activity in this sphere
activity in this sphere
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3598
事实上，在这个领域的
大多数政治活动，
大多数政治活动，
10:52
has been wizards and prophets
fighting each other, protesting each other
fighting each other, protesting each other
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一直都是奇才们和先知们
在相互争斗，相互抗议，
在相互争斗，相互抗议，
而不是承认他们从根本上
就是在同一战线的。
就是在同一战线的。
10:56
rather than recognizing that they are,
fundamentally, on the same side.
fundamentally, on the same side.
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3738
10:59
After all, these people are concerned
about the same thing:
about the same thing:
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毕竟，这些人都在关心同一个问题：
11:03
How are we going to make our way
in the world of 10 billion?
in the world of 10 billion?
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在100亿人口的世界里，
我们将如何生存?
我们将如何生存?
开始必要的社会运动，
创造一种群众效益，
创造一种群众效益，
11:06
The first step towards generating
that necessary social movement,
that necessary social movement,
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并且开始走上街
游行的第一步是
游行的第一步是
11:10
creating that critical mass and getting
that yelling and screaming going
that yelling and screaming going
224
658094
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显而易见的：奇才们与
先知们是在同一战线的。
先知们是在同一战线的。
11:13
seems obvious:
wizards and prophets join together.
wizards and prophets join together.
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但考虑到十几年来的
敌意，要如何实现呢？
敌意，要如何实现呢？
11:15
But how are you going to do this,
given the decades of hostility?
given the decades of hostility?
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3150
一种可行的方式是这样：
11:19
One way might be this:
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1174
双方同意接受对方的基本前提。
11:20
Each side agrees to accept
the fundamental premises of the other.
the fundamental premises of the other.
228
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4349
11:25
Accept that nuclear power
is safe and carbon-free,
is safe and carbon-free,
229
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3397
接受核能是安全且无碳的，
而且铀矿的污染也非常严重，
11:29
and that uranium mines
can be hideously dirty
can be hideously dirty
230
677258
2547
11:31
and that putting large volumes
of toxic waste on rickety trains
of toxic waste on rickety trains
231
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4325
把大量的有毒污染物
滞留在破旧的火车上，
滞留在破旧的火车上，
11:36
and shuttling them around
the countryside is a terrible idea.
the countryside is a terrible idea.
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3007
让火车在乡村间穿行
是个糟糕的想法。
是个糟糕的想法。
11:40
To me, this leads rather quickly
to a vision of small,
to a vision of small,
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3533
对我来说，这很快就
引出了一个想法，
引出了一个想法，
在我们发展和部署可再生能源时，
11:43
neighborhood scale, temporary nukes,
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2668
11:46
nuclear power as a bridge technology
while we develop and deploy renewables.
while we develop and deploy renewables.
235
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3620
小型社区的临时核电站供应的
核能是我们的过渡性技术。
核能是我们的过渡性技术。
11:50
Or accept that genetically
modified crops are safe
modified crops are safe
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698015
3701
或者接受改良转基因食物是安全的，
并且农业产业化已经
对环境造成了巨大破坏。
对环境造成了巨大破坏。
11:53
and that industrial agriculture
has caused huge environmental problems.
has caused huge environmental problems.
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3691
在我看来，植物科学家们
很快就会发现
很快就会发现
11:57
To me, this leads rather quickly
to a vision of plant scientists
to a vision of plant scientists
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他们应该花费更多的精力
研究那些比谷物更高产，
研究那些比谷物更高产，
12:01
devoting much more of their attention
to tree and tuber crops,
to tree and tuber crops,
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709729
3147
12:04
which can be much more
productive than cereals,
productive than cereals,
240
712900
3008
比谷物更节水，对环境
造成的侵蚀更少的作物，
造成的侵蚀更少的作物，
像树木和薯类作物。
12:07
use much less water than cereals,
and cause much less erosion than cereals.
and cause much less erosion than cereals.
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715932
3761
这些想法都只是
来自我这样一个普通人。
来自我这样一个普通人。
12:11
These are just ideas
from a random journalist.
from a random journalist.
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而我相信在这儿
有更多人比我聪明。
有更多人比我聪明。
12:13
I'm sure there's a hundred better ones
right here in this room.
right here in this room.
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3054
问题的关键就是，
12:17
The main point is,
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奇才和先知的观点结合起来
会使人类走向成功。
会使人类走向成功。
12:18
wizards and prophets working together
have many paths to success.
have many paths to success.
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12:22
And success would mean
much more than mere survival,
much more than mere survival,
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而成功不仅仅意味着生存，
尽管活下来的确很重要。
12:24
important though that is.
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我是说，如果人类能够挺过来的话，
12:26
I mean, if humankind somehow
survives its own outbreak,
survives its own outbreak,
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如果我们能有保证
每个人都饭吃，有水喝，
每个人都饭吃，有水喝，
12:29
if we get food to everybody,
get water to everybody,
get water to everybody,
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有电用，
12:31
get power to everybody,
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要是我们避开
气候变化的严重后果的话，
气候变化的严重后果的话，
12:32
if we avoid the worst effects
of climate change,
of climate change,
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要是我们能够保护生物圈的话，
12:36
if we somehow safeguard the biome,
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那未来就会相当美好。
12:39
it would be amazing.
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12:41
It would say, I think,
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我觉得我会说，
即使像我这样冷酷的愤世嫉俗者，
12:43
even to a hardened cynic like me,
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都会觉得我们这个物种
可能真的有点特别。
可能真的有点特别。
12:45
maybe we really are special.
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12:47
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
（掌声）
12:48
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Charles C. Mann - Science journalistCharles C. Mann calls himself "a fella who tries to find out interesting things and tell others about them."
Why you should listen
Twenty years ago, on the day his daughter was born, Charles C. Mann suddenly realized that by the time she reaches his age, there will be almost ten billion people in the world. How is that going to work? How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody, get power to everybody and avoid the worst impacts of climate change? Is there any hope we can do all of this?
As a science journalist, Mann has been asking these questions to researchers for years. His TED2018 talk is his best effort to explain the kind of answers he gets, and what they mean -- all in 12 minutes.
Mann is the author of 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus, 1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created and his latest, The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World.
Charles C. Mann | Speaker | TED.com