We the Future
Graham Allison: Is war between China and the US inevitable?
格拉汉姆·艾利森: 中美战争是否不可避免？
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从历史演进的模式“修昔底德的陷阱”中汲取经验教训，政治学家格拉汉姆·艾利森展示了为什么崛起中的中国和处于掌权地位的美国可能会产生没有任何人期待的暴力冲突--并介绍了我们能如何突破常规，避免这场战争。
Graham Allison - Political scientist, professor
Graham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making. Full bio
Graham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So, let me thank you
for the opportunity to talk about
for the opportunity to talk about
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首先我想感谢能有这个机会,
来讨论你们职业生涯中
最大的国际话题，
最大的国际话题，
00:17
the biggest international story
of your professional lifetime,
of your professional lifetime,
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00:22
which is also the most important
international challenge
international challenge
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同时也是众所周知，
最重要的，
最重要的，
00:26
the world will face
for as far as the eye can see.
for as far as the eye can see.
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全世界正面临的国际性挑战。
00:29
The story, of course,
is the rise of China.
is the rise of China.
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这个话题，毋庸置疑，
便是中国的崛起。
便是中国的崛起。
00:32
Never before have so many people
risen so far so fast,
risen so far so fast,
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在此之前从未有如此众多的人，
在如此众多的方面，
00:35
on so many different dimensions.
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有着如此飞速地进步。
00:38
The challenge is the impact
of China's rise --
of China's rise --
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随之而来的挑战在于
中国崛起所带来的影响--
中国崛起所带来的影响--
00:42
the discombobulation
this will cause the Unites States
this will cause the Unites States
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对美国以及国际秩序，
00:46
and the international order,
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所产生的混乱，
00:48
of which the US has been
the principal architect and guardian.
the principal architect and guardian.
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而美国一直是国际秩序的
首要建造者和守卫者。
首要建造者和守卫者。
00:54
The past 100 years have been what
historians now call an "American Century."
historians now call an "American Century."
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历史学家们将过去的100年
称为“美国的世纪”。
称为“美国的世纪”。
00:58
Americans have become
accustomed to their place
accustomed to their place
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美国人对自己在各方面所处的顶尖地位，
01:01
at the top of every pecking order.
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早已习以为常。
01:03
So the very idea of another country
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因此，若是有另一个
如同美国一样，
如同美国一样，
01:06
that could be as big and strong
as the US -- or bigger --
as the US -- or bigger --
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力量强大的大国--
甚至更大的国家存在。
甚至更大的国家存在。
这将对美国人的
自我认知造成威胁。
自我认知造成威胁。
01:10
strikes many Americans
as an assault on who they are.
as an assault on who they are.
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01:18
For perspective on what
we're now seeing in this rivalry,
we're now seeing in this rivalry,
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对这场正在进行的竞争
应该采取什么视角，
应该采取什么视角，
01:22
it's useful to locate it
on the larger map of history.
on the larger map of history.
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把眼光放大至历史中会很有用。
01:27
The past 500 years have seen 16 cases
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过去500年发生过的16案例，
01:30
in which a rising power
threatened to displace a ruling power.
threatened to displace a ruling power.
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展现崛起力量威胁掌权力量，
甚至取而代之。
甚至取而代之。
01:34
Twelve of those ended in war.
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其中12件案例最终导致战争。
01:39
So just in November, we'll all pause
to mark the 100th anniversary
to mark the 100th anniversary
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刚刚过去的11月，
我们纪念了那场100周年的战争。
我们纪念了那场100周年的战争。
01:45
of the final day of a war
that became so encompassing,
that became so encompassing,
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这场战争影响之广，
01:50
that it required historians to create
an entirely new category: world war.
an entirely new category: world war.
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以致历史学家创造了一个
新的类别：世界大战。
新的类别：世界大战。
01:55
So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day
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在1918年的第11个月的，
01:59
of the 11th month in 1918,
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第11天中的第11个小时，
02:03
the guns of World War I fell silent,
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第一次世界大战的
枪声开始沉寂，
枪声开始沉寂，
02:06
but 20 million individuals lay dead.
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但是两千万人
早已在战争中丧生。
早已在战争中丧生。
02:12
I know that this
is a sophisticated audience,
is a sophisticated audience,
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我相信在座各位都很熟悉，
02:14
so you know about the rise of China.
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所以你们应该
对中国的崛起有所了解。
对中国的崛起有所了解。
02:17
I'm going to focus, therefore,
on the impact of China's rise,
on the impact of China's rise,
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因此，我接下来想着重讨论
中国崛起所带来的影响，
中国崛起所带来的影响，
02:21
on the US, on the international order
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对于美国，对于国际秩序，
02:25
and on the prospects for war and peace.
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对于战争与和平方面所带来的影响。
02:28
But having taught at Harvard
over many years,
over many years,
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我在哈佛教书多年的经验告诉我，
02:30
I've learned that from time to time,
it's useful to take a short pause,
it's useful to take a short pause,
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偶尔有个短暂间隙会很有效，
02:34
just to make sure we're all
on the same page.
on the same page.
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来确认我们的认知是否同步。
我将我的检验方式称为“暂停休息”，
02:37
The way I do this is, I call a time-out,
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02:39
I give students a pop quiz --
ungraded, of course.
ungraded, of course.
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我给学生们提及测验
当然了，是不记分的。
当然了，是不记分的。
02:43
So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz.
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所以我们也试试吧，
突击小测验。
突击小测验。
02:46
Question:
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提问：
02:47
forty years ago, 1978, China sets out
on its march to the market.
on its march to the market.
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四十年前，1987年，
中国向市场进军。
中国向市场进军。
02:53
At that point, what percentage
of China's one billion citizens
of China's one billion citizens
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那时的中国，
十亿人口中有多少比例
十亿人口中有多少比例
挣扎在每天仅花2美刀的水平线上呢？
02:58
were struggling to survive
on less than two dollars a day?
on less than two dollars a day?
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03:02
Take a guess -- 25 percent?
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猜一下--25%？
03:05
Fifty?
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50%？
03:07
Seventy-five?
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75%？
03:09
Ninety.
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是90%。
03:12
What do you think?
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你们怎么看？
03:14
Ninety.
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90%。
03:16
Nine out of every 10
on less than two dollars a day.
on less than two dollars a day.
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每十人中有九人，每天的花销不到2美刀。
03:21
Twenty eighteen, 40 years later.
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2018年，40年之后，
03:24
What about the numbers?
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这个数字变成多少了呢？
03:25
What's your bet?
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你们猜是多少？
03:27
Take a look.
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了解一下，
03:33
Fewer than one in 100 today.
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如今每一百人中不到一人。
03:36
And China's president has promised
that within the next three years,
that within the next three years,
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中国国家主席还承诺在未来三年里，
最后的那一千万人口，
03:39
those last tens of millions
will have been raised up
will have been raised up
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03:42
above that threshold.
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会摆脱那个临界值。
03:44
So it's a miracle, actually,
in our lifetime.
in our lifetime.
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因此这可以说是我们
有生之年中的一个奇迹。
有生之年中的一个奇迹。
03:48
Hard to believe.
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难以置信。
03:49
But brute facts are even harder to ignore.
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然而残忍的事实无法忽视。
03:53
A nation that didn't even appear
on any of the international league tables
on any of the international league tables
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一个在25年前从未出现在，
03:56
25 years ago
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任何国际会议上的国家，
03:57
has soared,
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已经崛起，
03:59
to rival -- and in some areas,
surpass -- the United States.
surpass -- the United States.
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开始去竞争--
并且在一些方面超越了美国。
并且在一些方面超越了美国。
04:06
Thus, the challenge
that will shape our world:
that will shape our world:
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因此，改变世界的挑战在于：
04:10
a seemingly unstoppable rising China
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貌似无法阻挡的
崛起的中国，
崛起的中国，
04:14
accelerating towards an apparently
immovable ruling US,
immovable ruling US,
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加速朝着明显不动的
占据统治地位的美国走去。
占据统治地位的美国走去。
04:19
on course for what could be
the grandest collision in history.
the grandest collision in history.
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这可以说是历史上
最大的碰撞交锋。
最大的碰撞交锋。
04:24
To help us get our minds
around this challenge,
around this challenge,
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为了帮助大家理解这个挑战，
04:27
I'm going to introduce you
to a great thinker,
to a great thinker,
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我要向大家介绍
一位伟大的思想家。
一位伟大的思想家。
04:31
I'm going to present a big idea,
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我要在演讲中展示
一个宏大的想法，
一个宏大的想法，
04:33
and I'm going to pose a most
consequential question.
consequential question.
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并由此提出
最重要的问题。
最重要的问题。
04:38
The great thinker is Thucydides.
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这位思想家名为修昔底德。
04:41
Now, I know his name is a mouthful,
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我知道他的名字很绕口，
04:43
and some people
have trouble pronouncing it.
have trouble pronouncing it.
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有些人不太清楚如何发音。
04:45
So, let's do it, one,
two, three, together:
two, three, together:
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所以我们练习一遍，
一，二，三，一起：
一，二，三，一起：
04:47
Thucydides.
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修昔底德。
04:48
One more time: Thucydides.
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再一次：修昔底德。
谁是修昔底德？
04:51
So who was Thucydides?
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04:53
He was the father and founder of history.
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他是历史学之父，历史学的创立者，
04:56
He wrote the first-ever history book.
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他撰写了第一本历史书。
04:59
It's titled "The History
of the Peloponnesian War,"
of the Peloponnesian War,"
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这本书名为
《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》。
《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》。
05:03
about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago.
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它讲的是2500年前
发生在希腊的战争，
发生在希腊的战争，
05:07
So if nothing else today,
you can tweet your friends,
you can tweet your friends,
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所以如果今天什么都没印象
你可以给朋友发推特说：
你可以给朋友发推特说：
05:10
"I met a great thinker.
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“我今天认识了一位伟大的思想家，
我甚至可以念他的名字：修昔底德”。
05:12
And I can even pronounce
his name: Thucydides."
his name: Thucydides."
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05:16
So, about this war
that destroyed classical Greece,
that destroyed classical Greece,
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关于这场摧毁了古希腊的战争，
05:21
Thucydides wrote famously:
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修昔底德写下了一句著名评论：
05:24
"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta
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“正是雅典势力的崛起
和斯巴达因此而逐渐产生的恐惧，
和斯巴达因此而逐渐产生的恐惧，
05:31
that made the war inevitable."
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使得这场战争不可避免”。
05:34
So the rise of one
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所以一方势力的崛起，
05:36
and the reaction of the other
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以及另一方所做的反应，
05:39
create a toxic cocktail of pride,
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制造了饱含
骄傲，傲慢，偏执的
骄傲，傲慢，偏执的
05:43
arrogance, paranoia,
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有毒鸡尾酒，
05:46
that drug them both to war.
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这毒药让两者都上了战场。
05:50
Which brings me to the big idea:
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而这将我引向一个宏大的想法：
05:53
Thucydides's Trap.
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修昔底德的陷阱。
05:55
"Thucydides's Trap" is a term
I coined several years ago,
I coined several years ago,
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“修昔底德的陷阱”是
我几年前发明的词,
我几年前发明的词,
以便生动地阐述
修昔底德的见解。
修昔底德的见解。
05:59
to make vivid Thucydides's insight.
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06:02
Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous
dynamic that occurs
dynamic that occurs
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“修昔底德的陷阱”
指的是当新兴力量，
指的是当新兴力量，
06:06
when a rising power threatens
to displace a ruling power,
to displace a ruling power,
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威胁到掌权势力时
产生的危险动态，
产生的危险动态，
06:10
like Athens --
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如雅典--
如100年前的德国
又如如今的中国--
又如如今的中国--
06:12
or Germany 100 years ago,
or China today --
or China today --
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06:16
and their impact on Sparta,
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和它们对斯巴达的影响，
06:19
or Great Britain 100 years ago,
or the US today.
or the US today.
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如100年前的大英帝国
又如今对美国造成的影响。
又如今对美国造成的影响。
06:24
As Henry Kissinger has said,
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像亨利·基辛格所说，
06:26
once you get this idea, this concept
of Thucydides's Trap in your head,
of Thucydides's Trap in your head,
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一旦你产生这个想法，
脑海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”，
脑海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”，
06:30
it will provide a lens
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它将给你提供--
06:32
for helping you look through
the news and noise of the day
the news and noise of the day
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透过现今的新闻与喧嚣，
06:36
to understand what's actually going on.
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并理解事态的实际进展的棱镜，
06:40
So, to the most consequential question
about our world today:
about our world today:
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所以，当下对于全世界来说，
最重要的问题是：
最重要的问题是：
06:46
Are we going to follow
in the footsteps of history?
in the footsteps of history?
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我们将步入历史的后尘吗？
06:51
Or can we, through a combination
of imagination and common sense
of imagination and common sense
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或者我们可以
通过融合想象力和常识，
通过融合想象力和常识，
06:57
and courage
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以及勇气，
来寻找到对付
这种竞争关系的解决途径，
这种竞争关系的解决途径，
06:58
find a way to manage this rivalry
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07:03
without a war nobody wants,
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而不引发任何人都不期待，
07:06
and everybody knows would be catastrophic?
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且只会带来灾难的战争吗？
07:10
Give me five minutes to unpack this,
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让我花5分钟来解释，
07:12
and later this afternoon, when the next
news story pops up for you
news story pops up for you
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等你下午接收到一条新闻消息，
07:17
about China doing this,
or the US reacting like that,
or the US reacting like that,
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报道中国这么做，
或者美国那样应对时，
或者美国那样应对时，
07:20
you will be able to have a better
understanding of what's going on
understanding of what's going on
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你就会对事情进展
有更深的理解，
有更深的理解，
07:24
and even to explain it to your friends.
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甚至可以跟朋友做一番解释。
07:27
So as we saw with this flipping
the pyramid of poverty,
the pyramid of poverty,
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如同我们所看到的这个
贫穷倒金字塔一样，
贫穷倒金字塔一样，
07:32
China has actually soared.
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中国确实在崛起。
07:34
It's meteoric.
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如同流星般快速向前。
07:36
Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel,
I think, put it best.
I think, put it best.
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我认为前任捷克总统
瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔的描述很准确。
瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔的描述很准确。
07:39
He said, "All this has happened so fast,
we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
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他说：“这一切发生得太快了，
我们甚至还来不及去惊讶。”
我们甚至还来不及去惊讶。”
07:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:46
To remind myself
how astonished I should be,
how astonished I should be,
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为了提醒我自己应该有多惊讶，
07:50
I occasionally look out the window
in my office in Cambridge
in my office in Cambridge
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我坐在自己在剑桥的办公室，
偶尔会朝窗外望去
偶尔会朝窗外望去
07:54
at this bridge, which goes
across the Charles River,
across the Charles River,
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这座横跨查尔斯河的桥，
07:57
between the Kennedy School
and Harvard Business School.
and Harvard Business School.
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它处于哈佛的
肯尼迪政府学院和商学院之间。
肯尼迪政府学院和商学院之间。
08:00
In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said
they were going to renovate this bridge,
they were going to renovate this bridge,
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2012年，马萨诸塞州宣布
他们将翻新这座桥，
他们将翻新这座桥，
08:04
and it would take two years.
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预计将花费两年时间。
08:07
In 2014, they said it wasn't finished.
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可到了2014年还没竣工。
08:10
In 2015, they said
it would take one more year.
it would take one more year.
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2015年时，
他们说要再一年。
他们说要再一年。
08:13
In 2016, they said it's not finished,
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到了2016年他们又说未能竣工，
08:15
we're not going to tell you
when it's going to be finished.
when it's going to be finished.
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我不是打算告诉大家它什么时候能竣工。
08:18
Finally, last year, it was finished --
three times over budget.
three times over budget.
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最终，这项工程在去年竣工--
实际花费金额是预算的三倍。
实际花费金额是预算的三倍。
08:22
Now, compare this to a similar bridge
that I drove across last month in Beijing.
that I drove across last month in Beijing.
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现在，把这架桥和我上月在北京
曾驾驶穿过的一座桥做对比。
曾驾驶穿过的一座桥做对比。
08:27
It's called the Sanyuan Bridge.
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这座桥叫三元桥。
08:30
In 2015, the Chinese decided
they wanted to renovate that bridge.
they wanted to renovate that bridge.
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2015年时中国人
决定翻新这座桥。
决定翻新这座桥。
08:33
It actually has twice as many
lanes of traffic.
lanes of traffic.
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这座桥的交通车道数
是剑桥的两倍。
是剑桥的两倍。
08:37
How long did it take for them
to complete the project?
to complete the project?
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中国人花了多久完成这项工程呢？
08:40
Twenty fifteen, what do you bet?
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2015年，
你们猜是花了多久？
你们猜是花了多久？
08:44
Take a guess -- OK, three --
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猜一下--好，三（年）
08:46
Take a look.
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我们看看这段录像吧
08:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:00
The answer is 43 hours.
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答案是43小时。
09:02
(Audience: Wow!)
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（观众：哇！）
09:08
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:16
Graham Allison: Now, of course,
that couldn't happen in New York.
that couldn't happen in New York.
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当然，这种事不可能发生在纽约。
09:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:21
Behind this speed in execution
is a purpose-driven leader
is a purpose-driven leader
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在这执行速度的背后
是由以目标驱动行动的领导者，
是由以目标驱动行动的领导者，
09:26
and a government that works.
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和一个干实事的政府。
09:29
The most ambitious
and most competent leader
and most competent leader
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在如今的国际舞台上
最有雄心和最有竞争力的领导者，
最有雄心和最有竞争力的领导者，
是中国国家主席习近平。
09:32
on the international stage today
is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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他从不掩饰
自己想得到什么。
自己想得到什么。
09:36
And he's made no secret
about what he wants.
about what he wants.
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09:39
As he said when he became
president six years ago,
president six years ago,
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如同他六年前当选主席时所说。
09:42
his goal is to make China great again --
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他的目标就是要让
中国再次变得伟大—
中国再次变得伟大—
09:46
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:48
a banner he raised long before
Donald Trump picked up a version of this.
Donald Trump picked up a version of this.
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这个口号早在特朗普
提出类似的话前就已经出现了。
提出类似的话前就已经出现了。
09:53
To that end, Xi Jinping has announced
specific targets for specific dates:
specific targets for specific dates:
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那时习近平还宣布了
特定日期应完成的特定目标：
特定日期应完成的特定目标：
10:00
2025, 2035, 2049.
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2025年，2035年，2049年，
10:06
By 2025, China means to be
the dominant power
the dominant power
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到2025年时，
中国要成为10个先进科技领域，
中国要成为10个先进科技领域，
10:12
in the major market
in 10 leading technologies,
in 10 leading technologies,
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主要市场中的主导力量，
10:16
including driverless cars, robots,
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这其中包括
无人驾驶汽车，机器人，
无人驾驶汽车，机器人，
10:19
artificial intelligence,
quantum computing.
quantum computing.
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人工智能和量子计算。
10:23
By 2035, China means to be
the innovation leader
the innovation leader
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到2035年时，
中国要成为所有先进科技领域中
中国要成为所有先进科技领域中
10:28
across all the advanced technologies.
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最具创新力的领导者。
10:31
And by 2049, which is
the 100th anniversary
the 100th anniversary
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并且到2049年，
中华人民共和国，
中华人民共和国，
10:35
of the founding of the People's Republic,
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成立100周年之际，
10:37
China means to be
unambiguously number one,
unambiguously number one,
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中国要成为无可争议的第一，
10:41
including, [says] Xi Jinping,
an army that he calls "Fight and Win."
an army that he calls "Fight and Win."
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其中包括，习近平强调，
一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。
一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。
10:47
So these are audacious goals,
but as you can see,
but as you can see,
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这些都是大胆的目标，
但是大家都知道，
但是大家都知道，
10:50
China is already well on its way
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中国在朝着目标的路上，
10:53
to these objectives.
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一路走得稳扎稳打。
10:55
And we should remember
how fast our world is changing.
how fast our world is changing.
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我们还需提醒自己
这个世界的变化之快。
这个世界的变化之快。
10:59
Thirty years ago,
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三十年前，
11:00
the World Wide Web had not
yet even been invented.
yet even been invented.
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万维网还没出现。
11:05
Who will feel the impact
of this rise of China most directly?
of this rise of China most directly?
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4709
有谁能直观地感受到
中国崛起的影响力呢？
中国崛起的影响力呢？
11:10
Obviously, the current number one.
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658399
1918
答案显而易见的，
便是当今的第一大国。
便是当今的第一大国。
11:13
As China gets bigger
and stronger and richer,
and stronger and richer,
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随着中国变得
愈发强大和富有，
愈发强大和富有，
11:15
technologically more advanced,
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2000
科技变得更加先进，
11:17
it will inevitably bump up against
American positions and prerogatives.
American positions and prerogatives.
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中国将注定要对
美国的地位和特权产生威胁。
美国的地位和特权产生威胁。
11:23
Now, for red-blooded Americans --
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对于那些热血沸腾的美国人来说——
11:26
and especially for red-necked Americans
like me; I'm from North Carolina --
like me; I'm from North Carolina --
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4413
尤其是像我一样的美国乡巴佬--
我来自北卡罗莱纳州，
我来自北卡罗莱纳州，
11:30
there's something wrong with this picture.
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2334
这张宏大的蓝图里有点不对劲。
11:33
The USA means number one,
that's who we are.
that's who we are.
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2972
美国就是“第一”的代名词，
这点毋庸置疑，
这点毋庸置疑，
11:38
But again, to repeat:
brute facts are hard to ignore.
brute facts are hard to ignore.
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3943
但是还需再次强调：
我们无法忽视残忍的事实。
我们无法忽视残忍的事实。
11:43
Four years ago, Senator John McCain
asked me to testify about this
asked me to testify about this
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四年前，参议员约翰·麦凯恩想让我，
11:47
to his Senate Armed Services Committee.
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向参议院军事委员会阐明这个事实。
11:51
And I made for them a chart
that you can see,
that you can see,
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我便给他们绘制了一张表，如大家所见，
11:55
that said, compare the US and China
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在这个表中，我把中美对比：
11:58
to kids on opposite ends
of a seesaw on a playground,
of a seesaw on a playground,
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4516
比喻成在操场上玩跷跷板的两个小孩子，
12:02
each represented by the size
of their economy.
of their economy.
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3023
尺寸大小由两国的经济规模决定。
12:05
As late as 2004,
China was just half our size.
China was just half our size.
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4124
2004年时，
中国的规模仅占美国的一半。
中国的规模仅占美国的一半。
12:11
By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours.
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到了2014年，
中国的GDP值和美国一样了。
中国的GDP值和美国一样了。
12:14
And on the current trajectory,
by 2024, it will be half again larger.
by 2024, it will be half again larger.
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照此形势发展，到2024年时
中国的规模会变得比美国大一半。
中国的规模会变得比美国大一半。
12:22
The consequences of this tectonic change
will be felt everywhere.
will be felt everywhere.
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这个构造层面的改变结果
体现在方方面面。
体现在方方面面。
举个例子，在如今的贸易冲突中，
12:27
For example, in the current
trade conflict,
trade conflict,
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12:29
China is already
the number one trading partner
the number one trading partner
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2608
中国已经成为了所有亚洲主要国家的，
12:32
of all the major Asian countries.
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第一大贸易伙伴。
12:36
Which brings us back
to our Greek historian.
to our Greek historian.
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这个事实又把我们
带回了修昔底德的理论。
带回了修昔底德的理论。
12:40
Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File"
has reviewed the last 500 years of history
has reviewed the last 500 years of history
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哈佛大学的“修昔底德案例文档”
回顾了前500年里的历史，
回顾了前500年里的历史，
12:46
and found 16 cases in which a rising power
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并发现16个档案里出现了，
12:49
threatened to displace a ruling power.
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1930
崛起力量威胁掌权力量的事件。
12:52
Twelve of these ended in war.
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这其中12个案例以战争结束。
12:57
And the tragedy of this
is that in very few of these
is that in very few of these
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5293
最为悲剧的是，很少有主角，
13:03
did either of the protagonists want a war;
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想要发动战争；
13:07
few of these wars were initiated
by either the rising power
by either the rising power
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3302
其中只有几场战争是
由崛起力量，
由崛起力量，
13:10
or the ruling power.
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或掌权力量发起的。
13:11
So how does this work?
214
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事情是如何进展的？
13:13
What happens is,
a third party's provocation
a third party's provocation
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实际上，第三方势力的挑衅，
13:17
forces one or the other to react,
216
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2453
造成了某一方势力的躁动，
13:21
and that sets in motion a spiral,
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2745
而这便形成了一个漩涡，
13:24
which drags the two somewhere
they don't want to go.
they don't want to go.
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2869
把这两方势力拽进了
未曾想到达的地步。
未曾想到达的地步。
13:27
If that seems crazy, it is.
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这听起来有点疯狂，
确实是这样的。
确实是这样的。
但现实如此。
13:29
But it's life.
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13:31
Remember World War I.
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回想一下
世界第一次大战。
世界第一次大战。
13:33
The provocation in that case
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那场战争的导火索，
13:36
was the assassination
of a second-level figure,
of a second-level figure,
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便是矛头指向二级人物，
13:40
Archduke Franz Ferdinand,
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1925
弗朗茨·斐迪南大公的刺杀行动，
13:43
which then led
the Austro-Hungarian emperor
the Austro-Hungarian emperor
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这导致了奥匈帝国的皇帝，
下达对塞尔维亚的最后通牒，
13:46
to issue an ultimatum to Serbia,
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2087
13:48
they dragged in the various allies,
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1754
随后形成了多方势力的盟军，
两个月不到，
全欧洲便陷入战争。
全欧洲便陷入战争。
13:50
within two months,
all of Europe was at war.
all of Europe was at war.
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13:54
So imagine if Thucydides were watching
planet Earth today.
planet Earth today.
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想象一下修昔底德
观望如今的地球形势。
观望如今的地球形势。
13:58
What would he say?
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他会发表什么看法？
14:01
Could he find a more appropriate
leading man for the ruling power
leading man for the ruling power
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4841
他会找到一个比特朗普更合适，
14:05
than Donald J Trump?
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1435
掌权力量的领导者吗？
14:07
(Laughter)
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1365
（笑声）
14:08
Or a more apt lead for the rising
power than Xi Jinping?
power than Xi Jinping?
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5238
或者找到一个比习近平
更合适的崛起力量领导者？
更合适的崛起力量领导者？
14:15
And he would scratch his head
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2008
然后他会挠挠头，
14:17
and certainly say he couldn't think
of more colorful provocateur
of more colorful provocateur
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5364
并十分确信地说他无法找到，
14:22
than North Korea's Kim Jong-un.
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比朝鲜领导者金正恩
更具鲜明色彩的煽动者了。
更具鲜明色彩的煽动者了。
14:26
Each seems determined
to play his assigned part
to play his assigned part
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每个人似乎都在扮演着
被分配好的角色，
被分配好的角色，
14:30
and is right on script.
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1534
并按着剧本发展进行。
14:33
So finally, we conclude again
with the most consequential question,
with the most consequential question,
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4504
最后，我们再以最重要的问题总结，
14:37
the question that will have
the gravest consequences
the gravest consequences
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这个问题对我们的余生，
14:40
for the rest of our lives:
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2031
都具有重大意义：
14:45
Are Americans and Chinese going to let
the forces of history drive us to a war
the forces of history drive us to a war
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5834
美国人和中国人
难道就打算让历史的车轮，
难道就打算让历史的车轮，
14:51
that would be catastrophic for both?
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2212
载着他们驶向对任何人
都没好处的灾难性战争吗？
都没好处的灾难性战争吗？
14:54
Or can we summon
the imagination and courage
the imagination and courage
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又或，我们能征服想象力和勇气，
14:57
to find a way to survive together,
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1982
寻找一条共生之路，
15:00
to share the leadership
in the 21st century,
in the 21st century,
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分享21世纪的领导权力，
15:03
or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create
a new form of great power relations?
a new form of great power relations?
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4531
或者就如习近平所说，
创造一种新形式的权力联盟吗？
创造一种新形式的权力联盟吗？
15:08
That's the issue I've been
pursuing passionately
pursuing passionately
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2532
这个话题是我近两年来，
15:10
for the last two years.
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1579
一直在热切思考的。
15:12
I've had the opportunity to talk
and, indeed, to listen
and, indeed, to listen
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我曾有机会去和所有相关政府--
北京，华盛顿，
15:15
to leaders of all
the relevant governments --
the relevant governments --
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2158
15:17
Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo --
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3929
首尔，东京--讨论与倾听，
15:21
and to thought leaders across the spectrum
of both the arts and business.
of both the arts and business.
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4553
并从艺术和商业范围判断这些领导者。
15:26
I wish I had more to report.
255
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我不方便透露更多。
15:28
The good news is that leaders
are increasingly aware
are increasingly aware
256
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4048
好消息是，这些领导者
对于修昔底德的理论，
对于修昔底德的理论，
15:32
of this Thucydidean dynamic
257
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以及其可能造成的危险，
15:34
and the dangers that it poses.
258
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1560
开始逐渐重视起来。
15:37
The bad news is that
nobody has a feasible plan
nobody has a feasible plan
259
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坏消息是，
没有人制定出可行的方案，
没有人制定出可行的方案，
15:39
for escaping history as usual.
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2134
来逃出历史的怪圈。
15:43
So it's clear to me
that we need some ideas
that we need some ideas
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所以我很清楚我们需要，
15:45
outside the box
of conventional state graph --
of conventional state graph --
262
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在常规之外寻找些想法--
15:49
indeed, from another page
or another space --
or another space --
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3128
实际上，是从另一角度
或者另一空间--
或者另一空间--
15:54
which is what brings me to TED today
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这便成为了我今天来TED的缘由，
15:56
and which brings me to a request.
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也促使我发出请求。
16:01
This audience includes many
of the most creative minds on the planet,
of the most creative minds on the planet,
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在座的观众中囊括了
这个星球上最富创造力的大脑，
这个星球上最富创造力的大脑，
16:06
who get up in the morning and think
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你们会早上起来时思索，
16:08
not only about how to manage
the world we have,
the world we have,
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不局限于关于如何管理
这个世界的问题，
这个世界的问题，
16:11
but how to create worlds that should be.
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也去思考该如何创造
一个应有的世界。
一个应有的世界。
16:14
So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in
and as you reflect on it,
and as you reflect on it,
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所以我希望随着
大家思考得越深入，
大家思考得越深入，
16:19
some of you are going to have
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,
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在座的人里可能，
会产生些些大胆的甚至疯狂的想法。
会产生些些大胆的甚至疯狂的想法。
16:23
that when we find, will make
a difference in this space.
a difference in this space.
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而当这些想法被发现时，
便会给这个世界带来些不同。
便会给这个世界带来些不同。
16:27
And just to remind you if you do,
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提醒一下，如果你想尝试的话，
16:29
this won't be the first time.
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这并不是历史上的首次尝试。
16:32
Let me remind you of what happened
right after World War II.
right after World War II.
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我再来讲述一下
第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。
第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。
16:36
A remarkable group of Americans
and Europeans and others,
and Europeans and others,
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一个由美国人，欧洲人和其他地区的人
组成的杰出组织，
组成的杰出组织，
16:40
not just from government, but from
the world of culture and business,
the world of culture and business,
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其中不仅有拥有政府工作背景的成员，
还有来自文化界和商界的成员。
还有来自文化界和商界的成员。
16:44
engaged in a collective
surge of imagination.
surge of imagination.
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他们把自己投入进想象力集合工程。
16:48
And what they imagined
and what they created
and what they created
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这些人所想象和创造的，
16:51
was a new international order,
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是新的国际秩序，
16:54
the order that's allowed you and me
to live our lives, all of our lives,
to live our lives, all of our lives,
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一个让你，我，所有人都拥有自己的生活，
16:58
without great power war
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让大规模战争消失殆尽，
17:01
and with more prosperity
than was ever seen before on the planet.
than was ever seen before on the planet.
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并带来前所未有的繁荣的秩序。
17:05
So, a remarkable story.
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这是一段很杰出的事迹。
17:08
Interestingly, every pillar of this
project that produced these results,
project that produced these results,
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有趣的是，这个项目中的每一环，
17:13
when first proposed,
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在最开始公布的时候，
17:15
was rejected by the foreign
policy establishment
policy establishment
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被对外政策体制
以幼稚和不现实为由，
以幼稚和不现实为由，
17:18
as naive or unrealistic.
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给拒绝。
17:21
My favorite is the Marshall Plan.
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我最欣赏的是马歇尔计划。
17:24
After World War II,
Americans felt exhausted.
Americans felt exhausted.
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第二次世界大战结束后，
美国已精疲力竭。
美国已精疲力竭。
17:27
They had demobilized 10 million troops,
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它们遣散了一千万支军队，
17:29
they were focused on
an urgent domestic agenda.
an urgent domestic agenda.
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并把精力放在
紧急国内议程中。
紧急国内议程中。
17:32
But as people began to appreciate
how devastated Europe was
how devastated Europe was
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但当人们开始意识到
欧洲是怎么满目疮痍
欧洲是怎么满目疮痍
17:37
and how aggressive Soviet communism was,
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以及苏联共产主义
如何强势时，
如何强势时，
17:39
Americans eventually decided
to tax themselves
to tax themselves
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美国人最后决定在四年内
17:43
a percent and a half of GDP
every year for four years
every year for four years
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向人民征收占GDP 1.5%的税金，
17:47
and send that money to Europe
to help reconstruct these countries,
to help reconstruct these countries,
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并把这些钱送至欧洲协助重建，
17:51
including Germany and Italy,
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包括德国和意大利，
17:54
whose troops had just
been killing Americans.
been killing Americans.
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这些美国昔日的敌军。
17:57
Amazing.
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令人惊叹。
17:59
This also created the United Nations.
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这件事也促使了联合国的建立。
18:02
Amazing.
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令人惊叹。
18:03
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
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世界人权宣言。
18:06
The World Bank.
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世界银行。
18:08
NATO.
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北大西洋公约组织。
18:09
All of these elements of an order
for peace and prosperity.
for peace and prosperity.
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所有这些都是这个以和平繁荣
为目的的秩序的产物。
为目的的秩序的产物。
18:13
So, in a word, what we need
to do is do it again.
to do is do it again.
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总之，我们所需的是
重新再做一遍。
重新再做一遍。
18:17
And I think now we need a surge
of imagination, creativity,
of imagination, creativity,
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并且我认为现在我们需要
想象力和创造力的迸发，
想象力和创造力的迸发，
18:23
informed by history,
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前事不忘后事之师，
18:26
for, as the philosopher
Santayana reminded us,
Santayana reminded us,
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因为哲学家桑塔耶拿告诫我们，
18:30
in the end, only those
who refuse to study history
who refuse to study history
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最后，只有那些拒绝学习历史的人，
18:34
are condemned to repeat it.
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会被迫重蹈历史的覆辙。
18:37
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
18:38
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Graham Allison - Political scientist, professorGraham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making.
Why you should listen
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and the best-selling author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Founding Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, he has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the Secretaries of Defense under every president from Reagan to Obama.
Graham Allison | Speaker | TED.com