We the Future
Michael Green: The global goals we've made progress on -- and the ones we haven't
迈克尔 · 格林: 已经取得进展和有待实现的全球目标
Filmed:
Readability: 4
1,598,306 views
“我们如今生活的世界正在努力减少因饥饿、疟疾或腹泻而死去的人口数量。”经济学家迈克尔 · 格林如是说。为了帮助实现这一计划，联合国早在2015年就围绕着如健康、教育和平等重要因素提出了 17 项方针。在这场用数据佐证的演说中，格林分享了对每个国家已经所有进展的（或有待实现的）“可持续性发展目标”的分析——并针对我们将如何向着这些目标前进提出了新的想法。
Michael Green - Social progress expert
Michael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens. Full bio
Michael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 2015, the leaders of the world
made a big promise.
made a big promise.
0
480
5496
2015 年，世界各国的领袖们
做出了一个巨大的承诺——
做出了一个巨大的承诺——
在接下来的 15 年里，
00:18
A promise that over the next 15 years,
1
6000
2736
全球数十亿人的生活将得到改善，
00:20
the lives of billions of people
are going to get better
are going to get better
2
8760
3576
没有人会掉队。
00:24
with no one left behind.
3
12360
2080
00:27
That promise is the Sustainable
Development Goals --
Development Goals --
4
15200
3216
那个承诺就是，“可持续性发展目标”
（Sustainable Development Goals) ——
（Sustainable Development Goals) ——
00:30
the SDGs.
5
18440
1200
简称 SDGs。
00:32
We're now three years in;
6
20480
1816
时间已经过去了3年；
相当于整个旅程的五分之一。
00:34
a fifth of the way into the journey.
7
22320
2336
时间如白驹过隙，
00:36
The clock is ticking.
8
24680
1696
如果我们现在就偏离了既定轨道，
00:38
If we offtrack now,
9
26400
1536
00:39
it's going to get harder and harder
to hit those goals.
to hit those goals.
10
27960
3240
那么实现目标就会变得越来越艰难。
00:44
So what I want to do for you today
is give you a snapshot
is give you a snapshot
11
32320
2776
所以，今天我想让各位对于
我们目前已经走到了哪一步
我们目前已经走到了哪一步
有一个粗略的认识，
00:47
on where we are today,
12
35120
1736
00:48
some projections on where we're heading
13
36880
3136
并对我们未来的
前进方向做出一个预测，
前进方向做出一个预测，
同时也思考一下，
有哪些地方需要做出调整。
有哪些地方需要做出调整。
00:52
and some ideas on things
we might need to do differently.
we might need to do differently.
14
40040
3560
00:57
Now, the SDGs are of course
spectacularly complicated.
spectacularly complicated.
15
45440
3816
这个可持续性发展目标
的确不容易实现。
的确不容易实现。
01:01
I would expect nothing less
from the United Nations.
from the United Nations.
16
49280
2456
我非常期待联合国能够达成。
（笑声）
01:03
(Laughter)
17
51760
1016
我们有多少个目标？
01:04
How many goals?
18
52800
1216
也许尝试过并测试过的，
有那么3个，7个或10个。
有那么3个，7个或10个。
01:06
Maybe something tried and tested,
like three, seven or 10.
like three, seven or 10.
19
54040
3816
01:09
No, let's pick a prime number
higher than 10.
higher than 10.
20
57880
3416
不——还是让我们挑个
比10大的质数吧。
比10大的质数吧。
17个目标。
01:13
Seventeen goals.
21
61320
1720
01:15
I congratulate those of you
who've memorized them already.
who've memorized them already.
22
63960
2936
如果有些人已经记住了
这些目标，那么恭喜你们。
这些目标，那么恭喜你们。
01:18
For the rest of us, here they are.
23
66920
2136
至于其他人，请看这里。
01:21
Seventeen goals ranging
from ending poverty
from ending poverty
24
69080
3016
十七个目标，从终结贫困，
01:24
to inclusive cities
25
72120
1376
到提升城市的包容性，
01:25
to sustainable fisheries;
26
73520
1816
到发展可持续的渔业；
这一切都是为了我们
未来的世界所做的全面计划。
未来的世界所做的全面计划。
01:27
all a comprehensive plan
for the future of our world.
for the future of our world.
27
75360
3440
01:31
But sadly, a plan
without the data to measure it.
without the data to measure it.
28
79720
3720
但可惜的是，没有一个计划
可以用于衡量它们。
可以用于衡量它们。
01:36
So how are we going to track progress?
29
84280
1810
那么我们该如何追踪进展呢？
01:38
Well, I'm going to use today
the Social Progress Index.
the Social Progress Index.
30
86880
3896
别担心，今天我要展示的就是
社会进步指数 (Social Progress Index)。
社会进步指数 (Social Progress Index)。
01:42
It's a measure of
the quality of life of countries,
the quality of life of countries,
31
90800
3096
它是用于衡量一个
国家的生活质量的标准，
国家的生活质量的标准，
01:45
ranging from the basic
needs of survival --
needs of survival --
32
93920
3016
范围从基本的生存需求——
01:48
food, water, shelter, safety --
33
96960
2776
食物、水、住所、安全——
一直到保证幸福生活的基础——
01:51
through to the foundations
of well-being --
of well-being --
34
99760
2256
教育、资讯、健康以及环境——
01:54
education, information,
health and the environment --
health and the environment --
35
102040
3336
01:57
and opportunity --
36
105400
1576
还有机会-——
01:59
rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness
and access to higher education.
and access to higher education.
37
107000
5000
权力、选择自由权、包容度，
以及获得高等教育的机会。
以及获得高等教育的机会。
02:05
Now, the Social Progress Index
doesn't look like the SDGs,
doesn't look like the SDGs,
38
113240
3496
社会进步指数看起来
并不像可持续性发展目标，
并不像可持续性发展目标，
02:08
but fundamentally,
it's measuring the same concepts,
it's measuring the same concepts,
39
116760
3336
但根本来说，它是在衡量同样的概念，
02:12
and the Social Progress Index
has the advantage that we have the data.
has the advantage that we have the data.
40
120120
3576
而社会进步指数有一个优势，
就是我们有相关的数据。
就是我们有相关的数据。
02:15
We have 51 indicators
drawn from trusted sources
drawn from trusted sources
41
123720
3256
我们有 51 项指标，
都来自可靠的信息来源，
都来自可靠的信息来源，
可以用来衡量这些概念。
02:19
to measure these concepts.
42
127000
1440
02:21
And also, what we can do
because it's an index,
because it's an index,
43
129479
2577
此外，因为它是一个指数，
我们还可以把这些指标加起来
得到一个合计的分数，
得到一个合计的分数，
02:24
is add together all those indicators
to give us an aggregate score
to give us an aggregate score
44
132080
3896
用来代表整个可持续性
发展目标的表现。
发展目标的表现。
02:28
about how we're performing
against the total package of the SDGs.
against the total package of the SDGs.
45
136000
4080
02:33
Now, one caveat.
46
141120
1456
值得注意的是，
02:34
The Social Progress Index
is a measure of quality of life.
is a measure of quality of life.
47
142600
2856
社会测量指数可以衡量生活品质。
我们要观察的并非是
02:37
We're not looking at whether
this can be achieved
this can be achieved
48
145480
2336
在地球的环境限制之内
是否能达成目标，
是否能达成目标，
02:39
within the planet's environmental limits.
49
147840
1976
这些需要其他的工具才能做到。
02:41
You will need other tools to do that.
50
149840
1800
02:45
So how are we doing on the SDGs?
51
153200
2480
那么在可持续性发展目标上
我们做得如何呢？
我们做得如何呢？
02:48
Well, I'm going to put the SDGs
on a scale of zero to 100.
on a scale of zero to 100.
52
156320
4296
我们可以把可持续性发展目标
放到0到100的尺度上来看。
放到0到100的尺度上来看。
0分表示这所有 51 个指标
处于最糟糕的情况：
处于最糟糕的情况：
02:52
And zero is the absolute worst score
on each of those 51 indicators:
on each of those 51 indicators:
53
160640
4416
绝对的社会进展，0分。
02:57
absolute social progress, zero.
54
165080
2496
100分是要达到的
可持续性发展目标的最低标准。
可持续性发展目标的最低标准。
02:59
And then 100 is the minimum standard
required to achieve those SDGs.
required to achieve those SDGs.
55
167600
5096
我们希望能够在 2030 年达到100分。
03:04
A hundred is where
we want to get to by 2030.
we want to get to by 2030.
56
172720
2880
03:08
So, where did we start on this journey?
57
176600
2216
那么这趟旅程我们究竟
是从何开始的？
是从何开始的？
幸运的是，不是从零开始。
03:10
Fortunately, not at zero.
58
178840
1896
在 2015 年，全世界的
可持续发展目标分数是 69.1。
可持续发展目标分数是 69.1。
03:12
In 2015, the world score
against the SDGs was 69.1.
against the SDGs was 69.1.
59
180760
6096
这表明，我们已经在向着目标前进，
但还有很长的路要走。
但还有很长的路要走。
03:18
Some way on the way there
but quite a long way to go.
but quite a long way to go.
60
186880
2760
03:22
Now let me also emphasize
that this world forecast,
that this world forecast,
61
190320
2616
我还要强调一下，
这只是世界范围的预测，
这只是世界范围的预测，
03:24
which is based on data from 180 countries,
62
192960
2376
是基于 180 个国家现有的数据，
以人口数作为加权。
03:27
is population weighted.
63
195360
1696
03:29
So China has more weight in than Comoros;
64
197080
2456
所以，中国的权重比科摩罗要高；
03:31
India has more weight in than Iceland.
65
199560
1880
印度的权重比冰岛要高。
03:34
But we could unpack this
and see how the countries are doing.
and see how the countries are doing.
66
202080
3856
但是我们可以将数据进行分解，
看看各个国家的表现。
看看各个国家的表现。
03:37
And the country today that is closest
to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.
to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.
67
205960
5616
目前，最接近达成目标的国家是丹麦。
03:43
And the country with the furthest to go
is Central African Republic.
is Central African Republic.
68
211600
3600
最前路漫漫的国家是中非共和国。
03:47
And everyone else is somewhere in between.
69
215920
2600
其余的国家都处于它们之间。
03:51
So the challenge for the SDGs
70
219595
1381
所以，可持续性发展目标的挑战
03:53
is to try and sweep all these dots
across to the right, to 100 by 2030.
across to the right, to 100 by 2030.
71
221000
5280
就是要试着在 2030 年之前把
所有的点全部扫到最右的一百分。
所有的点全部扫到最右的一百分。
03:59
Can we get there?
72
227120
1200
我们能做到吗？
04:01
Well, with the Social Progress Index,
we've got some time series data.
we've got some time series data.
73
229040
3336
针对社会进步指数，
我们有一些时间序列的资料。
我们有一些时间序列的资料。
04:04
So we have some idea of the trend
that the countries are on,
that the countries are on,
74
232400
3296
所以我们能多少了解一点国家的趋势，
04:07
on which we can build some projections.
75
235720
2480
可以再通过趋势来做预测。
04:10
So let's have a look.
76
238880
1216
那么我们来看看吧。
我们先从表现最好的国家丹麦开始。
04:12
Let's start with our
top-performing country, Denmark.
top-performing country, Denmark.
77
240120
3016
04:15
And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark
is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
78
243160
4960
是的，我很高兴的预测，丹麦能在
2030 年实现可持续性发展目标。
2030 年实现可持续性发展目标。
04:20
Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win.
79
248800
3136
或许不出所料，
但是至少先打赢一场。
但是至少先打赢一场。
我们再来看看世界上的
其他较富有的国家——
其他较富有的国家——
04:23
Let's look at some of the other
richer countries of the world --
richer countries of the world --
80
251960
3056
西方七大工业国 (G7)。
04:27
the G7.
81
255040
1215
我们发现德国和日本会达到，
或至少很接近目标。
或至少很接近目标。
04:28
And we find that Germany and Japan
will get there or thereabouts.
will get there or thereabouts.
82
256279
4081
04:33
But Canada, France, the UK and Italy
are all going to fall short.
are all going to fall short.
83
261079
6417
但是加拿大，法国，英国
和意大利都还有一定差距。
和意大利都还有一定差距。
那么美国呢？
04:39
And the United States?
84
267520
1736
还要再差一截。
04:41
Quite some way back.
85
269280
1240
04:43
Now, this is sort of worrying news.
86
271880
2736
这是个有些让人担忧的消息。
但是这些是世界上最富有的国家，
04:46
But these are the richest
countries in the world,
countries in the world,
87
274640
2376
并不是人口最多的。
04:49
not the most populous.
88
277040
1816
现在让我们来看看
世界上最大的那些国家，
世界上最大的那些国家，
04:50
So let's take a look now
at the biggest countries in the world,
at the biggest countries in the world,
89
278880
2976
那些会直接影响到我们能否
实现可持续性发展目标的国家。
实现可持续性发展目标的国家。
04:53
the ones that will most affect
whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
90
281880
3336
04:57
And here they are --
91
285240
1416
就是这些——
04:58
countries in the world with a population
of higher than 100 million,
of higher than 100 million,
92
286680
3216
世界上人口超过一亿的国家，
从中国到埃塞俄比亚。
05:01
ranging from China to Ethiopia.
93
289920
2056
05:04
Obviously, the US and Japan
would be in that list,
would be in that list,
94
292000
2496
显然，美国和日本应该也在列表上，
但是我们已经看过它们，就不重复了。
05:06
but we've looked at them already.
95
294520
1616
05:08
So here we are.
96
296160
1216
那么问题就是，
世界上最大的国家是能否
达成可持续性发展目标的关键。
达成可持续性发展目标的关键。
05:09
The biggest countries in the world;
the dealbreakers for the SDGs.
the dealbreakers for the SDGs.
97
297400
3536
05:12
And the country that's going to make
most progress towards the SDGs
most progress towards the SDGs
98
300960
3696
而将会在可持续性发展目标上
取得巨大进展的国家是
取得巨大进展的国家是
05:16
is Mexico.
99
304680
2136
墨西哥。
05:18
Mexico is going to get to about 87,
100
306840
2016
墨西哥大概会达到 87 分，
05:20
so just shy of where
the US is going to get
the US is going to get
101
308880
2376
只是略低于美国会达到的目标，
但距离我们最终的
可持续性目标还差不少。
可持续性目标还差不少。
05:23
but quite some way off our SDG target.
102
311280
2200
05:26
Russia comes next.
103
314160
1776
接下来是俄罗斯，
05:27
Then China and Indonesia.
104
315960
2616
紧接着是中国和印度尼西亚。
然后是巴西——
本来预期巴西会比这个更好。
本来预期巴西会比这个更好。
05:30
Then Brazil -- might've expected
Brazil to do a bit better.
Brazil to do a bit better.
105
318600
3056
菲律宾，
05:33
Philippines,
106
321680
1296
05:35
and then a step down to India,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,
107
323000
5416
然后下面是印度，孟加拉，
巴基斯坦，尼日利亚，
巴基斯坦，尼日利亚，
05:40
and then Ethiopia.
108
328440
1280
以及埃塞俄比亚。
05:42
So none of these countries
are going to hit the SDGs.
are going to hit the SDGs.
109
330960
3336
可见，这些国家通通都
无法达到可持续性发展目标。
无法达到可持续性发展目标。
接着我们可以拿全世界
所有国家的数据
所有国家的数据
05:46
And we can then take these numbers
in all the countries of the world
in all the countries of the world
110
334320
3216
来做一个世界性的预测，
05:49
to give ourselves a world forecast
111
337560
1816
05:51
on achieving that total
package of the SDGs.
package of the SDGs.
112
339400
2896
预测可持续性发展目标的实现情况。
别忘了，在 2015 年，
我们是从 69.1 分起步的。
我们是从 69.1 分起步的。
05:54
So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1.
113
342320
4656
05:59
I'm pleased to say
that over the last three years,
that over the last three years,
114
347000
2376
我很高兴地说，在过去的三年里，
我们还是取得了一些喜人的进展。
06:01
we have made some progress.
115
349400
1496
06:02
In 2018, we've hit 70.5,
116
350920
3400
在 2018 年，我们达到了 70.5 分，
06:07
and if we project that rate
of progress forward to 2030,
of progress forward to 2030,
117
355160
3256
如果我们按照这样的趋势
推算到 2030 年，
推算到 2030 年，
我们将会达到 75.2分，
06:10
that's going to get us to 75.2,
118
358440
2800
06:13
which is obviously
a long way short of our target.
a long way short of our target.
119
361960
3160
显然离我们预期的目标还相差甚远。
06:17
Indeed, on current trends,
we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.
we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.
120
365880
6400
的确，依照目前的趋势，我们要到
2094 年才能实现同样的目标。
2094 年才能实现同样的目标。
06:26
Now, I don't know about you,
121
374360
1376
我不确定你们怎么想，
06:27
but I certainly don't
want to wait that long.
want to wait that long.
122
375760
2376
但是我肯定不想等那么久。
那么我们该怎么办呢？
06:30
So what can we do about this?
123
378160
1400
06:32
Well, the first thing to do is
we've got to call out the rich countries.
we've got to call out the rich countries.
124
380480
3416
首先我们要做的就是
呼吁这些富有的国家采取行动。
呼吁这些富有的国家采取行动。
它们是最接近可持续性
发展目标的国家，
发展目标的国家，
06:35
Here are the countries
closest to the SDGs,
closest to the SDGs,
125
383920
2816
有着丰富的资源，
06:38
with the greatest resources,
126
386760
1696
06:40
and they're falling short.
127
388480
1280
但却没能达到目标。
06:42
Maybe they think
that this is like the Old World
that this is like the Old World
128
390440
2896
也许它们认为这就像是旧世界里，
联合国的目标只是为了贫穷的
国家制定的，而不是为了它们。
国家制定的，而不是为了它们。
06:45
where goals for the UN are just
for poor countries and not for them.
for poor countries and not for them.
129
393360
3776
06:49
Well, you're wrong.
130
397160
1216
那你们就大错特错了。
可持续性发展目标
是为每一个国家制定的。
是为每一个国家制定的。
06:50
The SDGs are for every country,
131
398400
2096
06:52
and it's shameful that these wealthy
countries are falling short.
countries are falling short.
132
400520
3096
这些没能实现目标的
富有国家应该感到羞愧。
富有国家应该感到羞愧。
每一个国家都需要制定
一个计划来实施这一目标，
一个计划来实施这一目标，
06:55
Every country needs a plan
to implement the SDGs
to implement the SDGs
133
403640
2896
并为它们的公民们去达成这个目标。
06:58
and deliver them for their citizens.
134
406560
1896
07:00
G7, other rich countries --
135
408480
2056
七大工业国，以及其他富有的国家——
07:02
get your act together.
136
410560
1200
要积极行动起来。
07:05
The second thing we can do
is look a bit further into the data
is look a bit further into the data
137
413160
3416
我们能做的第二件事，就是
在看资料的时候更深入思考，
在看资料的时候更深入思考，
看看哪里有机会可以让进展更快，
07:08
and see where there are opportunities
to accelerate progress
to accelerate progress
138
416600
3096
或者哪里有机会
让我们逆转负面的趋势。
让我们逆转负面的趋势。
07:11
or there are negative trends
that we can reverse.
that we can reverse.
139
419720
2520
07:15
So I'm going to take you into three areas.
140
423000
2056
我们可以从三个方面来思考。
一方面是我们都做得很好的地方，
07:17
One where we're doing quite well,
141
425080
2096
07:19
one where we really should be doing better
142
427200
2256
一方面是还需要提升的地方，
还有另一方面是我们有问题
需要解决的地方。
需要解决的地方。
07:21
and another where we've got
some real problems.
some real problems.
143
429480
2400
07:25
Let's start with the good news,
144
433400
1616
我们先从好消息开始，
我想要谈的是所谓的
食物和基本的医疗服务。
食物和基本的医疗服务。
07:27
and I want to talk about what we call
nutrition and basic medical care.
nutrition and basic medical care.
145
435040
4296
这就包含了关于结束饥饿的
可持续性发展目标二，
可持续性发展目标二，
07:31
This covers SDG 2 on no hunger
146
439360
2456
及关于健康的目标三中的基本条款，
07:33
and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health,
147
441840
2336
包括母亲和儿童的死亡率，
感染性疾病等等。
感染性疾病等等。
07:36
so maternal and child mortality,
infectious diseases, etc ...
infectious diseases, etc ...
148
444200
4416
07:40
This is an area where most
of the rich world has hit the SDGs.
of the rich world has hit the SDGs.
149
448640
4176
在这一方面，世界上大部分
富有的国家都达到了目标。
富有的国家都达到了目标。
从这些富有国家中，我们也发现，
07:44
And we also find,
looking at our big countries,
looking at our big countries,
150
452840
2536
07:47
that the most advanced
have got pretty close.
have got pretty close.
151
455400
3136
最先进的国家最先达到目标。
07:50
Here are our 11 big countries,
152
458560
1976
这是我们的前 11 个大国，
07:52
and if you look at the top,
153
460560
1336
如果你看最上面的几个国家，
巴西和俄罗斯，它们都很接近目标。
07:53
Brazil and Russia
are pretty close to the SDG target.
are pretty close to the SDG target.
154
461920
3056
但在最底部——
07:57
But at the bottom --
155
465000
1256
埃塞俄比亚，巴基斯坦——
还有很长的路要走。
还有很长的路要走。
07:58
Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go.
156
466280
2296
08:00
That's where we are in 2018.
157
468600
1776
这就是截至到 2018 年的情况。
那么我们的发展轨迹又如何呢？
08:02
What's our trajectory?
158
470400
1256
若依照目前的轨迹，
08:03
On the current trajectory,
159
471680
1656
08:05
how far are we going to get by 2030?
160
473360
2416
到2030 年，我们还能走多远？
我们一起来看看。
08:07
Well, let's have a look.
161
475800
1336
很多国家都进展喜人。
08:09
Well, what we see is a lot of progress.
162
477160
2736
看一下中间的孟加拉国。
08:11
See Bangladesh in the middle.
163
479920
1696
08:13
If Bangladesh maintains
its current rate of progress,
its current rate of progress,
164
481640
3056
如果孟加拉国维持目前的进展，
它可能会非常接近
可持续性发展目标。
可持续性发展目标。
08:16
it could get very close
to that SDG target.
to that SDG target.
165
484720
3096
08:19
And Ethiopia at the bottom
is making a huge amount of progress
is making a huge amount of progress
166
487840
3456
而最下方的埃塞俄比亚目前也有
08:23
at the moment.
167
491320
1216
大幅度的进展。
如果保持这个势头，
埃塞俄比亚能够走得很远。
埃塞俄比亚能够走得很远。
08:24
If that can be maintained,
Ethiopia could get a long way.
Ethiopia could get a long way.
168
492560
3160
08:28
We add this all up
for all the countries of the world
for all the countries of the world
169
496640
2496
把全世界所有国家的数字加起来，
08:31
and our projection
is a score of 94.5 by 2030.
is a score of 94.5 by 2030.
170
499160
5696
我们预测到 2030 年，
我们将会达到 94.5 分。
我们将会达到 94.5 分。
如果像菲律宾这类成长较慢的国家
08:36
And if countries like the Philippines,
which have grown more slowly,
which have grown more slowly,
171
504880
3216
08:40
could accelerate progress,
172
508120
1296
能够加速进展，
08:41
then we could get a lot closer.
173
509440
2336
那么我们就会更接近目标。
08:43
So there are reasons to be optimistic
about SDGs 2 and 3.
about SDGs 2 and 3.
174
511800
3960
所以，我们对可持续性发展目标
二和三可以抱持积极的态度。
二和三可以抱持积极的态度。
08:48
But there's another very basic area
of the SDGs where we're doing less well,
of the SDGs where we're doing less well,
175
516480
4376
但是该目标的另一方面
我们就没能做得很好，
我们就没能做得很好，
那就是目标六，
关于水资源和卫生系统。
关于水资源和卫生系统。
08:52
which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation.
176
520880
3000
08:56
Again, it's an SDG
where most of the rich countries
where most of the rich countries
177
524560
2736
同样地，这也是大部分富有国家
08:59
have already achieved the targets.
178
527320
1936
已经实现的目标。
同时，对于大国家来说——
09:01
And again, for our big countries --
179
529280
1696
我们 11 个新兴的国家，
09:03
our big 11 emerging countries,
180
531000
2136
可以看到其中有一些，
如俄罗斯和墨西哥，
如俄罗斯和墨西哥，
09:05
we see that some of the countries,
like Russia and Mexico,
like Russia and Mexico,
181
533160
2736
都非常接近目标。
09:07
are very close to the target,
182
535920
2096
但是尼日利亚和其他国家
却还是相差甚远。
却还是相差甚远。
09:10
but Nigeria and other countries
are a very long way back.
are a very long way back.
183
538040
3680
09:14
So how are we doing on this target?
184
542440
1896
那么在这些目标上我们做得如何？
09:16
What progress are we going to make
over the next 12 years
over the next 12 years
185
544360
3176
根据目前的进展方向，
在接下来的 12 年里
我们需要实现怎样的进展？
我们需要实现怎样的进展？
09:19
based on the current direction of travel?
186
547560
1960
09:22
Well, here we go ...
187
550080
1616
好，让我们来看看……
09:23
and yes, there is some progress.
188
551720
1776
是的，就是这些进展。
09:25
Our top four countries
are all hitting the SDG targets --
are all hitting the SDG targets --
189
553520
2696
排名前四的国家将实现
可持续性发展目标——
可持续性发展目标——
09:28
some are moving forward quite quickly.
190
556240
2216
有些国家前进的速度非常快。
09:30
But it's not enough
to really move us forward significantly.
to really move us forward significantly.
191
558480
3376
但这还不足以让我们有显著的进步。
09:33
What we see is that
for the world as a whole,
for the world as a whole,
192
561880
2256
就整个世界而言，
我们预测到 2030 年前，
我们的分数会在 85 到 86 分左右——
我们的分数会在 85 到 86 分左右——
09:36
we're forecasting a score
of around 85, 86 by 2030 --
of around 85, 86 by 2030 --
193
564160
5416
还不够快。
09:41
not fast enough.
194
569600
1200
09:43
Now, obviously this is not good news,
195
571880
1976
显然这不是一个好消息，
09:45
but I think what this data also shows
is that we could be doing a lot better.
is that we could be doing a lot better.
196
573880
4256
但我认为这些数据也意味着
我们在很多地方还能做得更好。
我们在很多地方还能做得更好。
水和卫生是我们有待解决的问题。
09:50
Water and sanitation is a solved problem.
197
578160
2576
重点是我们要把解决方案
扩展到各个地方，
扩展到各个地方，
09:52
It's about scaling
that solution everywhere.
that solution everywhere.
198
580760
2576
09:55
So if we could accelerate progress
in some of those countries
in some of those countries
199
583360
2896
如果我们能够提高这些
成长缓慢的国家
成长缓慢的国家
09:58
who are improving more slowly --
200
586280
1576
进展的速度——
比如尼日利亚，菲律宾等等——
09:59
Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. --
201
587880
1656
10:01
then we could get
a lot closer to the goal.
a lot closer to the goal.
202
589560
2080
这样我们就能够更加接近目标。
10:04
Indeed, I think SDG 6
is probably the biggest opportunity
is probably the biggest opportunity
203
592480
4416
的确，我认为在所有
可持续性发展目标中，
可持续性发展目标中，
达成目标六的机会最大。
10:08
of all the SDGs for a step change.
204
596920
2480
10:13
So that's an area we could do better.
205
601920
1800
所以说，在这个方面
我们可以做得更好。
我们可以做得更好。
10:16
Let's look finally at an area
where we are struggling,
where we are struggling,
206
604800
2816
最后再来看看让我们
举步维艰的方面，
举步维艰的方面，
10:19
which is what we call
personal rights and inclusiveness.
personal rights and inclusiveness.
207
607640
3776
其中就包括所谓的人权以及包容性。
其中囊括了可持续性
发展目标中的不少概念。
发展目标中的不少概念。
10:23
This is covering concepts
across a range of SDGs.
across a range of SDGs.
208
611440
2736
10:26
SDG 1 on poverty,
SDG 5 on gender equality,
SDG 5 on gender equality,
209
614200
4336
目标一中的贫穷，
目标五中的性别平等，
目标五中的性别平等，
10:30
SDG 10 on inequality,
210
618560
2096
目标十中的不平等，
目标十一中的包容性城市，
10:32
SDG 11 on inclusive cities
211
620680
2336
10:35
and SDG 16 on peace and justice.
212
623040
3656
以及目标十六中的和平与公正。
10:38
So across those SDGs there are themes
around rights and inclusiveness,
around rights and inclusiveness,
213
626720
3816
所以，以上目标中的
主题都与权力和包容性有关，
主题都与权力和包容性有关，
10:42
and those may seem
less immediate or pressing
less immediate or pressing
214
630560
2456
与饥饿和疾病相比，它们或许
10:45
than things like hunger and disease,
215
633040
2136
显得没有那么紧急或迫切，
但是如果要做到不让人落后于时代，
权力和包容就变得至关重要。
权力和包容就变得至关重要。
10:47
but rights and inclusion are critical
to an agenda of no one left behind.
to an agenda of no one left behind.
216
635200
5040
10:53
So how are we doing on those issues?
217
641240
1715
那么我们该怎样对待这些问题呢？
10:55
Let's start off with personal rights.
218
643520
2016
让我们从个人权利谈起。
我要先向大家介绍下
2015 年的大国有哪些。
2015 年的大国有哪些。
10:57
What I'm going to do first
is show you our big countries in 2015.
is show you our big countries in 2015.
219
645560
4256
11:01
So here they are,
220
649840
1216
就是这些，
我又把美国和日本重新放了进来，
11:03
and I've put the USA and Japan back in,
221
651080
1896
所以，在全世界我们有 13 个大国。
11:05
so it's our 13 biggest
countries in the world.
countries in the world.
222
653000
2176
我们看到的分数差距很大。
11:07
And we see a wide range of scores.
223
655200
1816
最上面的美国和日本最先达到目标；
11:09
The United States at the top
with Japan hitting the goals;
with Japan hitting the goals;
224
657040
2936
中国还比较落后。
11:12
China a long way behind.
225
660000
2136
11:14
So what's been our direction of travel
226
662160
1976
那么在过去的三年里，
我们在权利方面的
进展方向又是什么？
进展方向又是什么？
11:16
on the rights agenda
over the last three years?
over the last three years?
227
664160
2496
我们来看一看。
11:18
Let's have a look.
228
666680
1256
事实上，形势不容乐观。
11:19
Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly.
229
667960
3096
大多数国家其实并没有
任何进展，甚至还在倒退，
任何进展，甚至还在倒退，
11:23
The majority of the countries
are standing still or moving backwards,
are standing still or moving backwards,
230
671080
3896
一些人口大国，像是
巴西，印度，中国，孟加拉
巴西，印度，中国，孟加拉
11:27
and big countries like Brazil,
India, China, Bangladesh
India, China, Bangladesh
231
675000
3896
11:30
have all seen significant declines.
232
678920
2560
都有明显的衰退迹象。
11:34
This is worrying.
233
682240
1200
这很令人担忧。
11:36
Let's have a look now at inclusiveness.
234
684480
2936
现在我们来看看包容性。
包容性要关注的方面
11:39
And inclusiveness is looking at things
235
687440
1856
有针对少数群体的暴力和歧视、
11:41
like violence and discrimination
against minorities,
against minorities,
236
689320
2736
性别平等、同性恋包容性等。
11:44
gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc...
237
692080
3136
11:47
And as a result, we see that the scores
for our big countries are generally lower.
for our big countries are generally lower.
238
695240
4296
那么我们可以看到人口大国的
分数基本上都很低。
分数基本上都很低。
11:51
Every country, rich and poor
alike, is struggling
alike, is struggling
239
699560
2496
每个国家，无论贫穷还是富有，
11:54
with building an inclusive society.
240
702080
1920
在建立一个包容的社会上
都有着各自的挣扎。
都有着各自的挣扎。
11:56
But what's our direction of travel?
241
704720
1696
但我们的发展方向又是什么？
我们在打造更多
具有包容性的国家吗？
具有包容性的国家吗？
11:58
Are we building more inclusive countries?
242
706440
2096
让我们看看截至 2018 年的进展。
12:00
Let's have a look -- progress to 2018.
243
708560
2120
12:03
And again we see
the world moving backwards:
the world moving backwards:
244
711280
2336
同样，我们看到世界在倒退：
12:05
most countries static,
245
713640
1736
大部分的国家在原地踏步，
很多国家还在倒退——
12:07
a lot of countries going backwards --
246
715400
1936
12:09
Bangladesh moving backwards --
247
717360
1776
孟加拉国在倒退——
12:11
but also, two of the countries
that were leading --
that were leading --
248
719160
2536
但其中有两个国家首当其中——
巴西和美国——
12:13
Brazil and the United States --
249
721720
1616
12:15
have gone backwards significantly
250
723360
1816
在过去三年里，
它们倒退的情况最严重。
12:17
over the last three years.
251
725200
1360
12:19
Let's sum this up now
for the world as a whole.
for the world as a whole.
252
727760
2496
现在，让我们以全球的
视角来做个总结。
视角来做个总结。
12:22
And what we see on personal rights
for the whole world
for the whole world
253
730280
2896
就全世界的个人权利来说，
12:25
is we're forecasting actually
a decline in the score on personal rights
a decline in the score on personal rights
254
733200
3616
我们预测个人权利的分数会下降到
12:28
to about 60,
255
736840
1416
大概 60 分，
包容性的分数将会下降到 42 分。
12:30
and then this decline in the score
of inclusiveness to about 42.
of inclusiveness to about 42.
256
738280
4240
12:35
Now, obviously these things
can change quite quickly
can change quite quickly
257
743480
2456
显然，随着国家的权力
和法律的改变，
和法律的改变，
12:37
with rights and with changes in law,
changes in attitudes,
changes in attitudes,
258
745960
3936
以及人民大众态度的调整，
这些都有可能很快改变，
这些都有可能很快改变，
但我们要接受这样一个事实，
依照目前的趋势，
依照目前的趋势，
12:41
but we have to accept
that on current trends,
that on current trends,
259
749920
2296
12:44
this is probably the most
worrying aspect of the SDGs.
worrying aspect of the SDGs.
260
752240
3880
这可能是可持续性发展目标中
最令人担忧的一方面了。
最令人担忧的一方面了。
12:49
How I've depressed you ...
261
757720
1296
听到这儿，各位是不是
觉得很失望……
觉得很失望……
12:51
(Laughter)
262
759040
1296
（笑声）
12:52
I hope not because I think what we do see
263
760360
2616
我希望没有，
因为我认为我们所看到的
因为我认为我们所看到的
12:55
is that progress is happening
in a lot of places
in a lot of places
264
763000
3416
是在很多地方能够看见的进展，
12:58
and there are opportunities
for accelerating progress.
for accelerating progress.
265
766440
3096
有很多机会能够加速这些进展。
13:01
We are living in a world
that is tantalizingly close
that is tantalizingly close
266
769560
3736
我们如今所生活的世界
13:05
to ensuring that no one need die
of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.
of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.
267
773320
5816
正在努力减少因饥饿、疟疾
或腹泻而死的人口数量。
或腹泻而死的人口数量。
13:11
If we can focus our efforts,
mobilize resources,
mobilize resources,
268
779160
3216
如果我们能够全力以赴，
充分调动资源，
充分调动资源，
13:14
galvanize the political will,
269
782400
1736
刺激政治意愿，
那么改变就有可能发生。
13:16
that step change is possible.
270
784160
1920
13:19
But in focusing on those
really basic, solvable SDGs,
really basic, solvable SDGs,
271
787640
3776
但当我们关注于那些非常基本的、
可解决的可持续性发展目标时，
可解决的可持续性发展目标时，
13:23
we mustn't forget the whole package.
272
791440
2296
我们也不能忘了顾全大局。
13:25
The goals are an unwieldy
set of indicators, goals and targets,
set of indicators, goals and targets,
273
793760
5096
这些目标是非常大的
一组指标和目标，
一组指标和目标，
13:30
but they also include
the challenges our world faces.
the challenges our world faces.
274
798880
3536
但它们也包括了
这个世界正面临的挑战。
这个世界正面临的挑战。
13:34
The fact that the SDGs
are focusing attention
are focusing attention
275
802440
2496
可持续性发展目标关注于
13:36
on the fact that we face a crisis
in personal rights and inclusiveness
in personal rights and inclusiveness
276
804960
4016
我们所面临的人权和包容性危机，
13:41
is a positive.
277
809000
1520
这是一件好事。
13:43
If we forget that,
278
811200
1256
如果我们忘了这点，
选择在我们能解决的
可持续性发展目标上加倍投注，
可持续性发展目标上加倍投注，
13:44
if we choose to double down
on the SDGs that we can solve,
on the SDGs that we can solve,
279
812480
4016
13:48
if we go for SDG à la carte
and pick the most easy SDGs,
and pick the most easy SDGs,
280
816520
5656
如果我们把各项目标拆开来
寻找最容易解决的部分，
寻找最容易解决的部分，
13:54
then we will have missed
the point of the SDGs,
the point of the SDGs,
281
822200
3376
那么我们的可持续性
发展目标就失去了意义，
发展目标就失去了意义，
我们也将错失目标，
13:57
we will miss the goals
282
825600
1696
13:59
and we will have failed
on the promise of the SDGs.
on the promise of the SDGs.
283
827320
3400
无法完成对于该目标的承诺。
14:03
Thank you.
284
831600
1216
谢谢大家。
（掌声）
14:04
(Applause)
285
832840
3640
Translated by Yanyan Hong
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Green - Social progress expertMichael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens.
Why you should listen
In his book Philanthrocapitalism (co-authored with Economist business editor Matthew Bishop), Michael Green defined a new model for social change built on partnerships between wealthy businesses, governments and community organizations. Shortly thereafter, Bishop floated the idea of a “Social Competiveness Index,” the idea that one day countries would compete with one another to be the most socially advanced, in the same way as they now compete to be economic top dog. Green loved it and decided to turn it into reality.
Teaming up with Avina's president Brizio Biondi-Morra, Sally Osberg of the Skoll Foundation and many other thought leaders from businesses and foundations, he began work on what would become the Social Progress Imperative, of which he's now CEO. Later they were joined by Harvard management guru Michael E. Porter, who became chairman of the SPI's advisory board. The first Social Progress Index was published in 2014.
Michael Green | Speaker | TED.com