We the Future
Michael Green: The global goals we've made progress on -- and the ones we haven't
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"We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea," says economist Michael Green. To help spur progress, back in 2015 the United Nations drew up a set of 17 goals around important factors like health, education and equality. In this data-packed talk, Green shares his analysis on the steps each country has (or hasn't) made toward these Sustainable Development Goals -- and offers new ideas on what needs to change so we can achieve them.
Michael Green - Social progress expert
Michael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens. Full bio
Michael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 2015, the leaders of the world
made a big promise.
made a big promise.
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A promise that over the next 15 years,
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the lives of billions of people
are going to get better
are going to get better
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with no one left behind.
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That promise is the Sustainable
Development Goals --
Development Goals --
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the SDGs.
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We're now three years in;
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a fifth of the way into the journey.
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The clock is ticking.
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If we offtrack now,
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it's going to get harder and harder
to hit those goals.
to hit those goals.
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So what I want to do for you today
is give you a snapshot
is give you a snapshot
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on where we are today,
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some projections on where we're heading
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and some ideas on things
we might need to do differently.
we might need to do differently.
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Now, the SDGs are of course
spectacularly complicated.
spectacularly complicated.
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I would expect nothing less
from the United Nations.
from the United Nations.
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(Laughter)
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How many goals?
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Maybe something tried and tested,
like three, seven or 10.
like three, seven or 10.
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No, let's pick a prime number
higher than 10.
higher than 10.
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Seventeen goals.
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I congratulate those of you
who've memorized them already.
who've memorized them already.
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For the rest of us, here they are.
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Seventeen goals ranging
from ending poverty
from ending poverty
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to inclusive cities
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to sustainable fisheries;
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all a comprehensive plan
for the future of our world.
for the future of our world.
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But sadly, a plan
without the data to measure it.
without the data to measure it.
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So how are we going to track progress?
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Well, I'm going to use today
the Social Progress Index.
the Social Progress Index.
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It's a measure of
the quality of life of countries,
the quality of life of countries,
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ranging from the basic
needs of survival --
needs of survival --
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food, water, shelter, safety --
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through to the foundations
of well-being --
of well-being --
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education, information,
health and the environment --
health and the environment --
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and opportunity --
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rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness
and access to higher education.
and access to higher education.
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Now, the Social Progress Index
doesn't look like the SDGs,
doesn't look like the SDGs,
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but fundamentally,
it's measuring the same concepts,
it's measuring the same concepts,
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and the Social Progress Index
has the advantage that we have the data.
has the advantage that we have the data.
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We have 51 indicators
drawn from trusted sources
drawn from trusted sources
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to measure these concepts.
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And also, what we can do
because it's an index,
because it's an index,
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is add together all those indicators
to give us an aggregate score
to give us an aggregate score
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about how we're performing
against the total package of the SDGs.
against the total package of the SDGs.
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Now, one caveat.
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The Social Progress Index
is a measure of quality of life.
is a measure of quality of life.
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We're not looking at whether
this can be achieved
this can be achieved
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within the planet's environmental limits.
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You will need other tools to do that.
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So how are we doing on the SDGs?
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Well, I'm going to put the SDGs
on a scale of zero to 100.
on a scale of zero to 100.
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And zero is the absolute worst score
on each of those 51 indicators:
on each of those 51 indicators:
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absolute social progress, zero.
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And then 100 is the minimum standard
required to achieve those SDGs.
required to achieve those SDGs.
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A hundred is where
we want to get to by 2030.
we want to get to by 2030.
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So, where did we start on this journey?
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Fortunately, not at zero.
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In 2015, the world score
against the SDGs was 69.1.
against the SDGs was 69.1.
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Some way on the way there
but quite a long way to go.
but quite a long way to go.
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Now let me also emphasize
that this world forecast,
that this world forecast,
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which is based on data from 180 countries,
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is population weighted.
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So China has more weight in than Comoros;
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India has more weight in than Iceland.
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But we could unpack this
and see how the countries are doing.
and see how the countries are doing.
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And the country today that is closest
to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.
to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.
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And the country with the furthest to go
is Central African Republic.
is Central African Republic.
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And everyone else is somewhere in between.
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So the challenge for the SDGs
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is to try and sweep all these dots
across to the right, to 100 by 2030.
across to the right, to 100 by 2030.
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Can we get there?
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Well, with the Social Progress Index,
we've got some time series data.
we've got some time series data.
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So we have some idea of the trend
that the countries are on,
that the countries are on,
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on which we can build some projections.
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So let's have a look.
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Let's start with our
top-performing country, Denmark.
top-performing country, Denmark.
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And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark
is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
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Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win.
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Let's look at some of the other
richer countries of the world --
richer countries of the world --
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the G7.
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And we find that Germany and Japan
will get there or thereabouts.
will get there or thereabouts.
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But Canada, France, the UK and Italy
are all going to fall short.
are all going to fall short.
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And the United States?
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Quite some way back.
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Now, this is sort of worrying news.
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But these are the richest
countries in the world,
countries in the world,
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not the most populous.
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So let's take a look now
at the biggest countries in the world,
at the biggest countries in the world,
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the ones that will most affect
whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
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And here they are --
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countries in the world with a population
of higher than 100 million,
of higher than 100 million,
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ranging from China to Ethiopia.
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Obviously, the US and Japan
would be in that list,
would be in that list,
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but we've looked at them already.
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So here we are.
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The biggest countries in the world;
the dealbreakers for the SDGs.
the dealbreakers for the SDGs.
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And the country that's going to make
most progress towards the SDGs
most progress towards the SDGs
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is Mexico.
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Mexico is going to get to about 87,
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so just shy of where
the US is going to get
the US is going to get
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but quite some way off our SDG target.
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Russia comes next.
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Then China and Indonesia.
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Then Brazil -- might've expected
Brazil to do a bit better.
Brazil to do a bit better.
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Philippines,
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and then a step down to India,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,
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and then Ethiopia.
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So none of these countries
are going to hit the SDGs.
are going to hit the SDGs.
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And we can then take these numbers
in all the countries of the world
in all the countries of the world
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to give ourselves a world forecast
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on achieving that total
package of the SDGs.
package of the SDGs.
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So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1.
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I'm pleased to say
that over the last three years,
that over the last three years,
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we have made some progress.
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In 2018, we've hit 70.5,
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and if we project that rate
of progress forward to 2030,
of progress forward to 2030,
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that's going to get us to 75.2,
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which is obviously
a long way short of our target.
a long way short of our target.
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Indeed, on current trends,
we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.
we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.
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Now, I don't know about you,
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but I certainly don't
want to wait that long.
want to wait that long.
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So what can we do about this?
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Well, the first thing to do is
we've got to call out the rich countries.
we've got to call out the rich countries.
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Here are the countries
closest to the SDGs,
closest to the SDGs,
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with the greatest resources,
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and they're falling short.
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Maybe they think
that this is like the Old World
that this is like the Old World
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where goals for the UN are just
for poor countries and not for them.
for poor countries and not for them.
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Well, you're wrong.
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The SDGs are for every country,
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and it's shameful that these wealthy
countries are falling short.
countries are falling short.
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Every country needs a plan
to implement the SDGs
to implement the SDGs
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and deliver them for their citizens.
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G7, other rich countries --
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get your act together.
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The second thing we can do
is look a bit further into the data
is look a bit further into the data
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and see where there are opportunities
to accelerate progress
to accelerate progress
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or there are negative trends
that we can reverse.
that we can reverse.
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So I'm going to take you into three areas.
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One where we're doing quite well,
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one where we really should be doing better
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and another where we've got
some real problems.
some real problems.
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Let's start with the good news,
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and I want to talk about what we call
nutrition and basic medical care.
nutrition and basic medical care.
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This covers SDG 2 on no hunger
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and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health,
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so maternal and child mortality,
infectious diseases, etc ...
infectious diseases, etc ...
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This is an area where most
of the rich world has hit the SDGs.
of the rich world has hit the SDGs.
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And we also find,
looking at our big countries,
looking at our big countries,
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that the most advanced
have got pretty close.
have got pretty close.
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Here are our 11 big countries,
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and if you look at the top,
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Brazil and Russia
are pretty close to the SDG target.
are pretty close to the SDG target.
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But at the bottom --
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Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go.
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That's where we are in 2018.
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What's our trajectory?
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On the current trajectory,
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how far are we going to get by 2030?
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Well, let's have a look.
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Well, what we see is a lot of progress.
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See Bangladesh in the middle.
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If Bangladesh maintains
its current rate of progress,
its current rate of progress,
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it could get very close
to that SDG target.
to that SDG target.
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And Ethiopia at the bottom
is making a huge amount of progress
is making a huge amount of progress
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at the moment.
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If that can be maintained,
Ethiopia could get a long way.
Ethiopia could get a long way.
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We add this all up
for all the countries of the world
for all the countries of the world
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and our projection
is a score of 94.5 by 2030.
is a score of 94.5 by 2030.
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And if countries like the Philippines,
which have grown more slowly,
which have grown more slowly,
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could accelerate progress,
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then we could get a lot closer.
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So there are reasons to be optimistic
about SDGs 2 and 3.
about SDGs 2 and 3.
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But there's another very basic area
of the SDGs where we're doing less well,
of the SDGs where we're doing less well,
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which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation.
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Again, it's an SDG
where most of the rich countries
where most of the rich countries
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have already achieved the targets.
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And again, for our big countries --
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our big 11 emerging countries,
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we see that some of the countries,
like Russia and Mexico,
like Russia and Mexico,
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are very close to the target,
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but Nigeria and other countries
are a very long way back.
are a very long way back.
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So how are we doing on this target?
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What progress are we going to make
over the next 12 years
over the next 12 years
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based on the current direction of travel?
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Well, here we go ...
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and yes, there is some progress.
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Our top four countries
are all hitting the SDG targets --
are all hitting the SDG targets --
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some are moving forward quite quickly.
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But it's not enough
to really move us forward significantly.
to really move us forward significantly.
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What we see is that
for the world as a whole,
for the world as a whole,
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we're forecasting a score
of around 85, 86 by 2030 --
of around 85, 86 by 2030 --
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not fast enough.
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Now, obviously this is not good news,
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but I think what this data also shows
is that we could be doing a lot better.
is that we could be doing a lot better.
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Water and sanitation is a solved problem.
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It's about scaling
that solution everywhere.
that solution everywhere.
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So if we could accelerate progress
in some of those countries
in some of those countries
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who are improving more slowly --
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Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. --
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then we could get
a lot closer to the goal.
a lot closer to the goal.
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Indeed, I think SDG 6
is probably the biggest opportunity
is probably the biggest opportunity
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of all the SDGs for a step change.
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So that's an area we could do better.
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Let's look finally at an area
where we are struggling,
where we are struggling,
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which is what we call
personal rights and inclusiveness.
personal rights and inclusiveness.
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This is covering concepts
across a range of SDGs.
across a range of SDGs.
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SDG 1 on poverty,
SDG 5 on gender equality,
SDG 5 on gender equality,
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SDG 10 on inequality,
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SDG 11 on inclusive cities
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and SDG 16 on peace and justice.
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So across those SDGs there are themes
around rights and inclusiveness,
around rights and inclusiveness,
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and those may seem
less immediate or pressing
less immediate or pressing
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than things like hunger and disease,
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but rights and inclusion are critical
to an agenda of no one left behind.
to an agenda of no one left behind.
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So how are we doing on those issues?
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Let's start off with personal rights.
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What I'm going to do first
is show you our big countries in 2015.
is show you our big countries in 2015.
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So here they are,
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and I've put the USA and Japan back in,
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so it's our 13 biggest
countries in the world.
countries in the world.
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And we see a wide range of scores.
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The United States at the top
with Japan hitting the goals;
with Japan hitting the goals;
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China a long way behind.
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So what's been our direction of travel
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on the rights agenda
over the last three years?
over the last three years?
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Let's have a look.
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Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly.
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The majority of the countries
are standing still or moving backwards,
are standing still or moving backwards,
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and big countries like Brazil,
India, China, Bangladesh
India, China, Bangladesh
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have all seen significant declines.
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This is worrying.
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Let's have a look now at inclusiveness.
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And inclusiveness is looking at things
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like violence and discrimination
against minorities,
against minorities,
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gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc...
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And as a result, we see that the scores
for our big countries are generally lower.
for our big countries are generally lower.
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Every country, rich and poor
alike, is struggling
alike, is struggling
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with building an inclusive society.
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But what's our direction of travel?
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Are we building more inclusive countries?
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Let's have a look -- progress to 2018.
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And again we see
the world moving backwards:
the world moving backwards:
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most countries static,
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a lot of countries going backwards --
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12:09
Bangladesh moving backwards --
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but also, two of the countries
that were leading --
that were leading --
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Brazil and the United States --
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have gone backwards significantly
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over the last three years.
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Let's sum this up now
for the world as a whole.
for the world as a whole.
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And what we see on personal rights
for the whole world
for the whole world
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is we're forecasting actually
a decline in the score on personal rights
a decline in the score on personal rights
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to about 60,
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and then this decline in the score
of inclusiveness to about 42.
of inclusiveness to about 42.
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Now, obviously these things
can change quite quickly
can change quite quickly
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with rights and with changes in law,
changes in attitudes,
changes in attitudes,
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but we have to accept
that on current trends,
that on current trends,
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this is probably the most
worrying aspect of the SDGs.
worrying aspect of the SDGs.
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How I've depressed you ...
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(Laughter)
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I hope not because I think what we do see
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is that progress is happening
in a lot of places
in a lot of places
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and there are opportunities
for accelerating progress.
for accelerating progress.
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We are living in a world
that is tantalizingly close
that is tantalizingly close
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to ensuring that no one need die
of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.
of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.
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If we can focus our efforts,
mobilize resources,
mobilize resources,
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galvanize the political will,
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that step change is possible.
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But in focusing on those
really basic, solvable SDGs,
really basic, solvable SDGs,
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we mustn't forget the whole package.
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The goals are an unwieldy
set of indicators, goals and targets,
set of indicators, goals and targets,
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but they also include
the challenges our world faces.
the challenges our world faces.
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The fact that the SDGs
are focusing attention
are focusing attention
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on the fact that we face a crisis
in personal rights and inclusiveness
in personal rights and inclusiveness
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is a positive.
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If we forget that,
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if we choose to double down
on the SDGs that we can solve,
on the SDGs that we can solve,
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if we go for SDG à la carte
and pick the most easy SDGs,
and pick the most easy SDGs,
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then we will have missed
the point of the SDGs,
the point of the SDGs,
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we will miss the goals
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and we will have failed
on the promise of the SDGs.
on the promise of the SDGs.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Green - Social progress expertMichael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens.
Why you should listen
In his book Philanthrocapitalism (co-authored with Economist business editor Matthew Bishop), Michael Green defined a new model for social change built on partnerships between wealthy businesses, governments and community organizations. Shortly thereafter, Bishop floated the idea of a “Social Competiveness Index,” the idea that one day countries would compete with one another to be the most socially advanced, in the same way as they now compete to be economic top dog. Green loved it and decided to turn it into reality.
Teaming up with Avina's president Brizio Biondi-Morra, Sally Osberg of the Skoll Foundation and many other thought leaders from businesses and foundations, he began work on what would become the Social Progress Imperative, of which he's now CEO. Later they were joined by Harvard management guru Michael E. Porter, who became chairman of the SPI's advisory board. The first Social Progress Index was published in 2014.
Michael Green | Speaker | TED.com