ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Titley - Meteorologist
Scientist and retired Navy officer Dr. David Titley asks a big question: Could the US military play a role in combating climate change?

Why you should listen

David Titley is a Professor of Practice in Meteorology and a Professor of International Affairs at the Pennsylvania State University. He is the founding director of Penn State’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. He served as a naval officer for 32 years and rose to the rank of Rear Admiral. Titley’s career included duties as commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command; oceanographer and navigator of the Navy; and deputy assistant chief of naval operations for information dominance. He also served as senior military assistant for the director, Office of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

While serving in the Pentagon, Titley initiated and led the U.S. Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. After retiring from the Navy, Titley served as the Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Operations, the chief operating officer position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Titley serves on numerous advisory boards and National Academies of Science committees, including the CNA Military Advisory Board, the Center for Climate and Security and the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Titley is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

More profile about the speaker
David Titley | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

David Titley: How the military fights climate change

大卫·蒂特利: 军队如何对抗气候变化

Filmed:
1,016,753 views

军事领袖千年以来就明白要防患于未然,这是科学家兼海军退休军官大卫·蒂特利的观点。他从叙利亚的人道主义灾难讲到斯瓦尔巴的冰冻海岸,向我们展示了军队是如何应对气候变化威胁的,观点新颖又实际,态度中立。他说到:“冰川不会在乎谁入主白宫,谁控制国会,谁操纵议会。它只会融化。”
- Meteorologist
Scientist and retired Navy officer Dr. David Titley asks a big question: Could the US military play a role in combating climate change? Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I'd like to tell you a story故事
about climate气候 and change更改,
0
833
3823
我想讲一个关于气候和变化的故事,
00:16
but it's really a story故事 about people
and not polar极性 bears.
1
4680
2666
但这个故事实际上跟人有关,
而不是北极熊。
00:20
So this is our house
that we lived生活 in in the mid-中-2000s.
2
8640
3536
这是我2005年左右住的房子。
00:24
I was the chief首席 operating操作 officer
for the Navy's海军 weather天气 and ocean海洋 service服务.
3
12200
4776
当时我在海军天气和海洋局
当首席运营官。
00:29
It happened发生 to be down at a place地点
called Stennis斯坦尼斯 Space空间 Center中央
4
17000
2896
房子位于斯坦尼斯航天中心,
墨西哥湾沿岸,
00:31
right on the Gulf海湾 Coast,
5
19920
1256
我们住在密西西比州
一个叫维乌兰德的小镇,
00:33
so we lived生活 in a little town
called Waveland韦夫兰, Mississippi密西西比州,
6
21200
2715
很漂亮很现代的房子,如您所见,
它经历了风暴潮。
00:35
nice不错 modest谦虚 house, and as you can see,
it's up against反对 a storm风暴 surge浪涌.
7
23939
3517
00:39
Now, if you ever wonder奇迹
8
27480
2656
不知道您想过没有,
00:42
what a 30-foot-脚丫子 or nine-meter九米
storm风暴 surge浪涌 does
9
30160
3456
30英尺,或者说9米高的风暴潮
00:45
coming未来 up your street,
10
33640
2056
袭击您住的街区会是什么样子,
00:47
let me show显示 you.
11
35720
1616
我们来看一看。
00:49
Same相同 house.
12
37360
1336
就是那栋房子。
00:50
That's me, kind of wondering想知道 what's next下一个.
13
38720
3536
那是我,在想接下来应该怎么办。
00:54
But when we say we lost丢失 our house --
this is, like, right after Katrina卡特里娜 --
14
42280
3496
我们失去了自己的房子,
这是在卡特里娜飓风过境之后,
00:57
so the house is either all the way
up there in the railway铁路 tracks轨道,
15
45800
3816
我们的房子要么在这里的铁路线上,
01:01
or it's somewhere某处 down there
in the Gulf海湾 of Mexico墨西哥,
16
49640
2816
要么就是在墨西哥湾里的某个地方,
01:04
and to this day,
we really, we lost丢失 our house.
17
52480
2176
直到今天,我只知道房子没了,
01:06
We don't know where it is.
18
54680
1256
天知道它在哪里。
01:07
(Laughter笑声)
19
55960
1256
(笑声)
01:09
You know, it's gone走了.
20
57240
1856
没了就是没了。
01:11
So I don't show显示 this for pity可怜,
21
59120
4896
我说这个不是为了寻求同情,
01:16
because in many许多 ways方法, we were
the luckiest幸运 people on the Gulf海湾 Coast.
22
64040
4416
因为从很多方面来说,
我们已经是墨西哥湾沿岸最幸运的人了。
01:20
One of the things is, we had insurance保险,
23
68480
2856
因为很重要的一点,我们有保险,
01:23
and that idea理念 of insurance保险
is probably大概 pretty漂亮 important重要 there.
24
71360
4416
保险对于我们那儿而言尤为重要。
01:27
But does this scale规模 up,
you know, what happened发生 here?
25
75800
2936
那么这种事情会不会越来越严重呢?
01:30
And I think it kind of does,
because as you've heard听说,
26
78760
3256
我认为会,因为大家都知道,
01:34
as the sea levels水平 come up,
27
82040
1696
随着海平面上升,
01:35
it takes weaker较弱 and weaker较弱 storms风暴
to do something like this.
28
83760
3896
越来越小的风暴
都可以造成这样大的伤害。
01:39
So let's just step back for a second第二
and kind of look at this.
29
87680
3896
让我们先停一下,来看看这个。
01:43
And, you know,
climate's气候的 really complicated复杂,
30
91600
2576
我们都知道,气候非常复杂,
01:46
a lot of moving移动 parts部分 in this,
31
94200
2776
有很多变化因素在里面,
01:49
but I kind of put it about
it's all about the water.
32
97000
2896
但简单来看,全部都跟水有关。
01:51
See, see those three blue蓝色 dots
there down on the lower降低 part部分?
33
99920
3376
大家看到下面这3个蓝色的点了吗?
01:55
The one you can easily容易 see,
that's all the water in the world世界.
34
103320
3296
最大的那个,是全世界所有的水。
01:58
Those two smaller dots,
those are the fresh新鲜 water.
35
106640
3456
比较小的那2个,是淡水。
02:02
And it turns out
that as the climate气候 changes变化,
36
110120
3336
其实随着气候的变化,
02:05
the distribution分配 of that water
is changing改变 very fundamentally从根本上.
37
113480
3496
水的比例会发生根本性的变化。
02:09
So now we have too much, too little,
wrong错误 place地点, wrong错误 time.
38
117000
3736
要么多了,要么少了,
要么地点不对,要么时间不对。
02:12
It's salty where it should be fresh新鲜;
it's liquid液体 where it should be frozen冻结的;
39
120760
4576
本该是淡水的,变成了咸水,
本该是冻结的,融化了,
02:17
it's wet湿 where it should be dry;
40
125360
1576
本该干燥的地方变潮湿了,
02:18
and in fact事实, the very chemistry化学
of the ocean海洋 itself本身 is changing改变.
41
126960
3775
实际上,海洋本身的
化学成分也在变化。
02:22
And what that does
from a security安全 or a military军事 part部分
42
130759
4937
那么从安全和军事角度来说,
02:27
is it does three things:
43
135720
2256
气候变化带来了3件事:
02:30
it changes变化 the very operating操作
environment环境 that we're working加工 in,
44
138000
3576
一是改变了我们行动的环境,
02:33
it threatens威胁 our bases基地,
45
141600
1576
威胁我们的基地,
02:35
and then it has geostrategic地缘政治 risks风险,
which哪一个 sounds声音 kind of fancy幻想
46
143200
3496
同时还有地缘战略风险,
这个听起来有点高深,
02:38
and I'll explain说明 what I mean
by that in a second第二.
47
146720
3256
我稍后会详细解释。
02:42
So let's go to just
a couple一对 examples例子 here.
48
150000
3496
下面举几个例子。
02:45
And we'll start开始 off with what we all know
49
153520
2216
首先是大家众所周知的,
02:47
is of course课程 a political政治
and humanitarian人道主义 catastrophe灾难
50
155760
3176
发生在叙利亚的人道主义灾难
02:50
that is Syria叙利亚.
51
158960
1416
和政治灾难。
02:52
And it turns out that climate气候
was one of the causes原因
52
160400
4416
原来,气候也是起因之一,
02:56
in a long chain of events事件.
53
164840
2696
是链条中的一环。
02:59
It actually其实 started开始 back in the 1970s.
54
167560
2776
事情开始于20世纪70年代。
03:02
When Assad阿萨德 took control控制 over Syria叙利亚,
55
170360
2856
当时阿萨德控制了叙利亚,
03:05
he decided决定 he wanted to be self-sufficient自给
in things like wheat小麦 and barley大麦.
56
173240
5136
他想要实现粮食自给自足。
03:10
Now, you would like to think
57
178400
1656
好的,你也许会想,
03:12
that there was somebody
in Assad's阿萨德的 office办公室 that said,
58
180080
2456
会有人在阿萨德的办公室说,
“老板,我们位于地中海东岸,
03:14
"Hey boss老板, you know,
we're in the eastern Mediterranean地中海,
59
182560
3096
03:17
kind of dry here,
maybe not the best最好 idea理念."
60
185680
3456
气候有点干燥,可能有点难办。”
03:21
But I think what happened发生 was,
61
189160
1456
但我觉得实际情况可能是,
03:22
"Boss老板, you are a smart聪明, powerful强大
and handsome英俊 man. We'll get right on it."
62
190640
4096
“老板,您真是英明神武。
我们立刻去办。”
03:26
And they did.
63
194760
1216
他们说到做到。
03:28
So by the '90s, believe it or not,
64
196000
3936
不管你信不信,在90年代,
他们真的做到了粮食自给自足,
03:31
they were actually其实
self-sufficient自给 in food餐饮,
65
199960
3416
03:35
but they did it at a great cost成本.
66
203400
1576
但付出的代价也很大。
03:37
They did it at a cost成本 of their aquifers含水层,
67
205000
1936
代价就是他们的地下水,
03:38
they did it at a cost成本
of their surface表面 water.
68
206960
2136
以及地表水。
03:41
And of course课程, there are
many许多 nonclimate非气候 issues问题
69
209120
2216
当然,还有很多非气候的因素
03:43
that also contributed贡献 to Syria叙利亚.
70
211360
1696
造成了目前叙利亚的局面。
比如伊拉克战争,
03:45
There was the Iraq伊拉克 War战争,
71
213080
1216
03:46
and as you can see
by that lower降低 blue蓝色 line线 there,
72
214320
2416
请大家看底下这条蓝色的线,
03:48
over a million百万 refugees难民
come into the cities城市.
73
216760
3216
超过100万难民涌入城市。
03:52
And then about a decade ago,
74
220000
1736
另外,差不多十年前,
03:53
there's this tremendous巨大
heat wave and drought干旱 --
75
221760
3136
发生了严重的热浪和干旱,
03:56
fingerprints指纹 all over that show显示,
76
224920
2056
所有的证据都表明,
03:59
yes, this is in fact事实 related有关
to the changing改变 climate气候 --
77
227000
3216
没错,这的确跟气候变化有关
04:02
has put another另一个 three quarters住处
of a million百万 farmers农民
78
230240
2936
而且这又将另外75万农民
04:05
into those same相同 cities城市.
79
233200
1896
赶入了之前那些城市。
04:07
Why? Because they had nothing.
80
235120
2480
为什么?因为他们已经一无所有。
04:10
They had dust灰尘. They had dirt污垢.
They had nothing.
81
238200
2976
除了沙尘和荒漠,一无所有。
04:13
So now they're in the cities城市,
82
241200
2016
他们身处城市之中,
04:15
the Iraqis伊拉克人 are in the cities城市,
83
243240
1416
伊拉克人也在城市之中,
04:16
it's Assad阿萨德, it's not like
he's taking服用 care关心 of his people,
84
244680
3096
那可是阿萨德,
他可不关照他的子民,
04:19
and all of a sudden突然
we have just this huge巨大 issue问题 here
85
247800
4296
仿佛一夜之间,
出现了很多大问题,
04:24
of massive大规模的 instability不稳定
86
252120
2256
比如不稳定,
04:26
and a breeding配种 ground地面 for extremism极端主义.
87
254400
2256
比如滋生极端主义。
04:28
And this is why in the security安全 community社区
88
256680
1976
正因为此,我们搞安全的
04:30
we call climate气候 change更改
a risk风险 to instability不稳定.
89
258680
3696
会把气候变化称为造成不稳定的风险。
04:34
It accelerates加速 instability不稳定 here.
90
262400
2256
它会加速不稳定。
04:36
In plain English英语,
it makes品牌 bad places地方 worse更差.
91
264680
2760
直白点说,会让不好的地方变得更糟。
04:40
So let's go to another另一个 place地点 here.
92
268240
1656
下面我们去另一个地方看一下。
04:41
Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers公里,
or about 1,200 miles英里, north of Oslo奥斯陆,
93
269920
4576
奥斯陆北边2000公里,
或者说1200英里的地方,
04:46
only 600 miles英里 from the Pole,
94
274520
2536
那儿离北极点只有600英里,
04:49
and this is arguably按理说
95
277080
2536
那个地方可以说是
04:51
the most strategic战略 island
you've never heard听说 of.
96
279640
2256
最具有战略意义的岛屿,
而你可能从未听说过。
04:53
It's a place地点 called Svalbard斯瓦尔巴.
97
281920
1576
它叫斯瓦尔巴。
04:55
It sits坐镇 astride跨越 the sea lanes车道
98
283520
2216
它横跨数条海洋航道,
04:57
that the Russian俄语 Northern北方 Fleet舰队 needs需求
to get out and go into warmer回暖 waters水域.
99
285760
5256
俄罗斯的北方舰队要进入
温暖海域,必须经过这里。
05:03
It is also, by virtue美德 of its geography地理,
100
291040
2976
它还有一个地理上的优势,
05:06
a place地点 where you can control控制
every一切 single polar极性 orbiting轨道 satellite卫星
101
294040
3536
在这里,你可以控制到
每一颗极地轨道卫星
无论它的轨道高度如何。
05:09
on every一切 orbit轨道.
102
297600
1256
05:10
It is the strategic战略 high ground地面 of space空间.
103
298880
2616
这里是太空的战略制高点。
05:13
Climate气候 change更改 has greatly非常 reduced减少
the sea ice around here,
104
301520
3256
气候变化极大减少了
那里的海冰,
05:16
greatly非常 increasing增加 human人的 activity活动,
105
304800
2816
并大大加强了人类活动,
这里成为了一个导火线,
05:19
and it's becoming变得 a flashpoint闪点,
106
307640
1496
05:21
and in fact事实 the NATO北约
Parliamentary议会 Assembly部件
107
309160
2056
实际上,北约的议会大会,
05:23
is going to meet遇到 here
on Svalbard斯瓦尔巴 next下一个 month.
108
311240
3016
将会于下月在斯瓦尔巴召开。
05:26
The Russians俄罗斯 are very,
very unhappy不快乐 about that.
109
314280
2736
俄罗斯对此非常不满。
05:29
So if you want to find
a flashpoint闪点 in the Arctic北极,
110
317040
2656
如果你想在北极找一个导火线,
05:31
look at Svalbard斯瓦尔巴 there.
111
319720
1640
非斯瓦尔巴莫属。
05:34
Now, in the military军事,
112
322440
1776
在军事领域,
05:36
we have known已知 for decades几十年,
if not centuries百年,
113
324240
2336
在早几十年甚至几个世纪前,
我们就已经明白,
05:38
that the time to prepare准备,
114
326600
2016
要防患于未然,
05:40
whether是否 it's for a hurricane飓风,
a typhoon台风 or strategic战略 changes变化,
115
328640
3736
预防飓风、台风或者战略变化,
05:44
is before they hit击中 you,
116
332400
1856
做好预案,
05:46
and Admiral上将 NimitzNimitz was right there.
117
334280
1696
尼米兹上将明白这一点。
05:48
That is the time to prepare准备.
118
336000
1976
他已经在准备应对。
05:50
Fortunately幸好, our Secretary秘书 of Defense防御,
119
338000
2496
幸运的是,我们的国防部长,
05:52
Secretary秘书 Mattis马蒂斯,
he understands理解 that as well,
120
340520
2240
马蒂斯部长,他也明白这一点,
05:55
and what he understands理解
is that climate气候 is a risk风险.
121
343600
3056
他知道气候是风险。
05:58
He has said so in his written书面
responses回复 to Congress国会,
122
346680
2456
他在对国会的书面回复中写到,
06:01
and he says, "As Secretary秘书 of Defense防御,
123
349160
2136
“作为国防部长,
06:03
it's my job工作 to manage管理 such这样 risks风险."
124
351320
3416
我有责任来应对这些风险。”
06:06
It's not only the US military军事
that understands理解 this.
125
354760
3936
不仅是美国军方有这种意识。
06:10
Many许多 of our friends朋友 and allies盟国
in other navies海军 and other militaries军队
126
358720
3536
我们在其他国家海军和军方的
许多朋友和盟友
06:14
have very clear-eyed头脑清晰 views意见
about the climate气候 risk风险.
127
362280
3776
对于气候风险也有很清醒的认识。
06:18
And in fact事实, in 2014, I was honored荣幸
to speak说话 for a half-a-day半天 seminar研讨会
128
366080
4296
2014年,我有幸参加了
一次为期半天的研讨会,
06:22
at the International国际 Seapower海权 Symposium座谈会
129
370400
2216
主题是国际海洋力量,
06:24
to 70 heads of navies海军 about this issue问题.
130
372640
2840
我有幸对全球70家海军的领袖发言。
06:29
So Winston温斯顿 Churchill丘吉尔
is alleged所谓的 to have said,
131
377200
2576
据说温斯顿·丘吉尔说过,
06:31
I'm not sure if he said anything,
but he's alleged所谓的 to have said
132
379800
3256
我不确定他是否说过,
但据说是这样,
06:35
that Americans美国人 can always
be counted upon to do the right thing
133
383080
3936
他说,美国人在折腾完
其他所有的可能性之后,
06:39
after exhausting辛苦 every一切 other possibility可能性.
134
387040
2056
总会做出正确的决定的。
06:41
(Laughter笑声)
135
389120
1576
(笑声)
06:42
So I would argue争论
we're still in the process处理
136
390720
2216
我会说,我们还在折腾,
06:44
of exhausting辛苦 every一切 other possibility可能性,
137
392960
1856
折腾其他所有的可能性,
06:46
but I do think we will prevail战胜.
138
394840
2576
但我认为我们有优势。
06:49
But I need your help.
139
397440
1456
但我需要你们的帮助。
06:50
This is my ask.
140
398920
1256
这是我的请求。
06:52
I ask not that you take
your recycling回收 out on Wednesday星期三,
141
400200
3456
我并不会请求你们
在周三交出可回收物品,
06:55
but that you engage从事
with every一切 business商业 leader领导,
142
403680
2976
而是请求你们
去游说每一位商业领袖,
06:58
every一切 technology技术 leader领导,
every一切 government政府 leader领导,
143
406680
2816
每一位技术领袖,
每一位政府首脑,
07:01
and ask them, "Ma'am女士, sir先生,
144
409520
2576
问问他们“女士/先生,
07:04
what are you doing
to stabilize稳定 the climate气候?"
145
412120
2680
您打算如何来保持气候稳定?”
07:07
It's just that simple简单.
146
415520
1536
就这么简单。
07:09
Because when enough足够 people care关心 enough足够,
147
417080
3496
因为只要有足够多的人关注,
07:12
the politicians政治家, most of whom
won't惯于 lead on this issue问题 --
148
420600
3576
那么政治家们——大部分可能并不直接管这事,
07:16
but they will be led --
149
424200
1776
但他们会被动员起来,
07:18
that will change更改 this.
150
426000
1376
那就足以改变现状了。
07:19
Because I can tell you,
the ice doesn't care关心.
151
427400
4056
因为我可以告诉大家,冰川无情。
冰川并不会在意谁入主白宫。
07:23
The ice doesn't care关心
who's谁是 in the White白色 House.
152
431480
2416
07:25
It doesn't care关心 which哪一个 party派对
controls控制 your congress国会.
153
433920
2976
它也不在意国会被哪个党控制。
07:28
It doesn't care关心 which哪一个 party派对
controls控制 your parliament议会.
154
436920
2576
议会被哪个党控制。
07:31
It just melts熔体.
155
439520
1456
它只会融化。
07:33
Thank you very much.
156
441000
1216
非常感谢大家。
07:34
(Applause掌声)
157
442240
5920
(掌声)
Translated by Alvin Lee
Reviewed by MINGZHI SHIHUA

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Titley - Meteorologist
Scientist and retired Navy officer Dr. David Titley asks a big question: Could the US military play a role in combating climate change?

Why you should listen

David Titley is a Professor of Practice in Meteorology and a Professor of International Affairs at the Pennsylvania State University. He is the founding director of Penn State’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. He served as a naval officer for 32 years and rose to the rank of Rear Admiral. Titley’s career included duties as commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command; oceanographer and navigator of the Navy; and deputy assistant chief of naval operations for information dominance. He also served as senior military assistant for the director, Office of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

While serving in the Pentagon, Titley initiated and led the U.S. Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. After retiring from the Navy, Titley served as the Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Operations, the chief operating officer position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Titley serves on numerous advisory boards and National Academies of Science committees, including the CNA Military Advisory Board, the Center for Climate and Security and the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Titley is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

More profile about the speaker
David Titley | Speaker | TED.com