ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Titley - Meteorologist
Scientist and retired Navy officer Dr. David Titley asks a big question: Could the US military play a role in combating climate change?

Why you should listen

David Titley is a Professor of Practice in Meteorology and a Professor of International Affairs at the Pennsylvania State University. He is the founding director of Penn State’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. He served as a naval officer for 32 years and rose to the rank of Rear Admiral. Titley’s career included duties as commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command; oceanographer and navigator of the Navy; and deputy assistant chief of naval operations for information dominance. He also served as senior military assistant for the director, Office of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

While serving in the Pentagon, Titley initiated and led the U.S. Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. After retiring from the Navy, Titley served as the Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Operations, the chief operating officer position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Titley serves on numerous advisory boards and National Academies of Science committees, including the CNA Military Advisory Board, the Center for Climate and Security and the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Titley is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

More profile about the speaker
David Titley | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

David Titley: How the military fights climate change

大衛.提特利: 軍方如何對抗氣候變遷

Filmed:
1,016,753 views

軍方領導人長期以來都知道,面對挑戰,做準備的時間點應該是在它襲擊之前,科學家兼退休美國海軍軍官大衛.提特利如此說。他帶著我們,從敘利亞的人道主義災難,一路到斯瓦巴的冰沿岸地區,來展示出軍方如何對付氣候變遷的威脅,對於為氣候做準備,他帶來了很實用又無黨派的觀點。「冰並不在乎誰坐鎮白宮。冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的國會。冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的議會。」提特利說:「它就是會融化。」
- Meteorologist
Scientist and retired Navy officer Dr. David Titley asks a big question: Could the US military play a role in combating climate change? Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I'd like to tell you a story故事
about climate氣候 and change更改,
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我想要告訴各位一個
關於氣候和變遷的故事,
00:16
but it's really a story故事 about people
and not polar極性 bears.
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但它其實是一個關於
人的故事,而非北極熊。
00:20
So this is our house
that we lived生活 in in the mid-中-2000s.
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這是我們在 2000 年代中期
所居住的房子。
00:24
I was the chief首席 operating操作 officer
for the Navy's海軍 weather天氣 and ocean海洋 service服務.
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我是海軍氣象與海洋局營運長。
00:29
It happened發生 to be down at a place地點
called Stennis斯坦尼斯 Space空間 Center中央
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它剛好是在一個叫做
斯坦尼斯航天中心的地方,
就在墨西哥灣沿岸地區,
00:31
right on the Gulf海灣 Coast,
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所以我們住在一個小鎮,
密西西比的威佛蘭,
00:33
so we lived生活 in a little town
called Waveland韋夫蘭, Mississippi密西西比州,
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它是間樸素的好房子,
00:35
nice不錯 modest謙虛 house, and as you can see,
it's up against反對 a storm風暴 surge浪湧.
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如你們所見,它面對風暴潮。
00:39
Now, if you ever wonder奇蹟
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如果你曾納悶過,
00:42
what a 30-foot-腳丫子 or nine-meter九米
storm風暴 surge浪湧 does
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三十英呎或九公尺高的
風暴潮打到街上時,
00:45
coming未來 up your street,
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會造成什麼狀況,
00:47
let me show顯示 you.
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讓我呈現給你們看。
00:49
Same相同 house.
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同一間房子。
00:50
That's me, kind of wondering想知道 what's next下一個.
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那是我,有點搞不清楚
接下來會發生什麼。
00:54
But when we say we lost丟失 our house --
this is, like, right after Katrina卡特里娜 --
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我們說我們的房子不見了
──那是在卡崔娜颶風之後──
00:57
so the house is either all the way
up there in the railway鐵路 tracks軌道,
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房子要不是一路跑到鐵軌那一頭,
01:01
or it's somewhere某處 down there
in the Gulf海灣 of Mexico墨西哥,
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就是到了墨西哥灣那一頭,
01:04
and to this day,
we really, we lost丟失 our house.
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至今,我們的房子真的不見了。
01:06
We don't know where it is.
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我們不知道它在哪裡。
01:07
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:09
You know, it's gone走了.
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你們知道的,它不見了。
01:11
So I don't show顯示 this for pity可憐,
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我呈現這些的目的不是要索取同情,
01:16
because in many許多 ways方法, we were
the luckiest幸運 people on the Gulf海灣 Coast.
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因為從許多方面看,
我們算是墨西哥灣沿岸最幸運的人。
01:20
One of the things is, we had insurance保險,
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其中一件幸運的事是,我們有保險,
01:23
and that idea理念 of insurance保險
is probably大概 pretty漂亮 important重要 there.
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在這裡,保險是相當重要的。
01:27
But does this scale規模 up,
you know, what happened發生 here?
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這裡發生的事是否會再擴大?
01:30
And I think it kind of does,
because as you've heard聽說,
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而我認為還會再擴大,
因為如你們已經聽到過的,
01:34
as the sea levels水平 come up,
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隨著海平面上升,
01:35
it takes weaker較弱 and weaker較弱 storms風暴
to do something like this.
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不用多強的風暴,
就可以造成這樣的破壞了。
01:39
So let's just step back for a second第二
and kind of look at this.
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我們先退後一步,來看看這個現象。
01:43
And, you know,
climate's氣候的 really complicated複雜,
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氣候是很複雜的,
01:46
a lot of moving移動 parts部分 in this,
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當中有許多持續在動的部分,
01:49
but I kind of put it about
it's all about the water.
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但我覺得可以說,一切都和水有關。
01:51
See, see those three blue藍色 dots
there down on the lower降低 part部分?
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看到下半部有三個藍點了嗎?
01:55
The one you can easily容易 see,
that's all the water in the world世界.
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很容易看見的那個藍點,
表示全世界所有的水。
01:58
Those two smaller dots,
those are the fresh新鮮 water.
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兩個比較小的點,它們表示淡水。
02:02
And it turns out
that as the climate氣候 changes變化,
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結果發現,隨著氣候變遷,
02:05
the distribution分配 of that water
is changing改變 very fundamentally從根本上.
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水的分佈也有根本上的改變。
02:09
So now we have too much, too little,
wrong錯誤 place地點, wrong錯誤 time.
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現在我們看到太多水、
太少水、不對的地方、不對的時間。
02:12
It's salty where it should be fresh新鮮;
it's liquid液體 where it should be frozen凍結的;
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該是淡水的地方有鹽,
在水該是液態的地方水卻結冰了;
02:17
it's wet where it should be dry;
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該乾燥的地方卻是濕的;
02:18
and in fact事實, the very chemistry化學
of the ocean海洋 itself本身 is changing改變.
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事實上,連海洋本身的
化學性質也在改變。
02:22
And what that does
from a security安全 or a military軍事 part部分
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它對於安全或是軍方的影響,
02:27
is it does three things:
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包括下列三項:
02:30
it changes變化 the very operating操作
environment環境 that we're working加工 in,
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它改變了我們工作的作業環境,
02:33
it threatens威脅 our bases基地,
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它威脅我們的基地,
02:35
and then it has geostrategic地緣政治 risks風險,
which哪一個 sounds聲音 kind of fancy幻想
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且還有地緣戰略的風險,
這聽起來挺炫的,
02:38
and I'll explain說明 what I mean
by that in a second第二.
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我等一下就會解釋它的意思。
02:42
So let's go to just
a couple一對 examples例子 here.
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我們先來看幾個例子。
02:45
And we'll start開始 off with what we all know
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我們先從大家都知道的開始,
02:47
is of course課程 a political政治
and humanitarian人道主義 catastrophe災難
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當然,就是政治和人道主義的災難,
02:50
that is Syria敘利亞.
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也就是敘利亞。
02:52
And it turns out that climate氣候
was one of the causes原因
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結果發現,氣候是一系列
連鎖事件的成因之一。
02:56
in a long chain of events事件.
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02:59
It actually其實 started開始 back in the 1970s.
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其實,一切是從 1970 年代開始的。
03:02
When Assad阿薩德 took control控制 over Syria敘利亞,
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阿薩德接管了敘利亞,
03:05
he decided決定 he wanted to be self-sufficient自給
in things like wheat小麥 and barley大麥.
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在小麥和大麥方面,
他決定要做到自給自足。
03:10
Now, you would like to think
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你會希望,
03:12
that there was somebody
in Assad's阿薩德的 office辦公室 that said,
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在阿薩德的辦公室中有個人說:
03:14
"Hey boss老闆, you know,
we're in the eastern Mediterranean地中海,
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「嘿,老闆,你知道嗎,
我們在東地中海,
03:17
kind of dry here,
maybe not the best最好 idea理念."
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這裡有點乾燥,
這也許不是最好的點子。」
但我認為,真正的狀況的是:
03:21
But I think what happened發生 was,
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03:22
"Boss老闆, you are a smart聰明, powerful強大
and handsome英俊 man. We'll get right on it."
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「老闆,你是個很聰明、有影響力、
英俊的人。我們馬上去辦。」
03:26
And they did.
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他們就做了。
03:28
So by the '90s, believe it or not,
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所以,到了 1990 年代,
信不信由你,
03:31
they were actually其實
self-sufficient自給 in food餐飲,
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他們在食物方面確實做到自給自足,
03:35
but they did it at a great cost成本.
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但他們這麼做的代價很大。
03:37
They did it at a cost成本 of their aquifers含水層,
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代價是他們的地下蓄水層,
03:38
they did it at a cost成本
of their surface表面 water.
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犧牲了他們的地表水。
03:41
And of course課程, there are
many許多 nonclimate非氣候 issues問題
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當然,有許多非氣候的議題,
03:43
that also contributed貢獻 to Syria敘利亞.
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也影響著敘利亞。
03:45
There was the Iraq伊拉克 War戰爭,
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有伊拉克戰爭,
03:46
and as you can see
by that lower降低 blue藍色 line there,
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你們可以看看下方的藍線,
03:48
over a million百萬 refugees難民
come into the cities城市.
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有超過一百萬難民來到城市。
03:52
And then about a decade ago,
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接著,大約十年前,
03:53
there's this tremendous巨大
heat wave and drought乾旱 --
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發生了驚人的熱浪和乾旱──
03:56
fingerprints指紋 all over that show顯示,
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這些狀況上面全是兇手的指紋,
03:59
yes, this is in fact事實 related有關
to the changing改變 climate氣候 --
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是的,事實上,
這和氣候變遷有關──
04:02
has put another另一個 three quarters住處
of a million百萬 farmers農民
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讓一百萬農夫的四分之三
04:05
into those same相同 cities城市.
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也都進入這些城市中。
04:07
Why? Because they had nothing.
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為什麼?因為他們一無所有。
04:10
They had dust灰塵. They had dirt污垢.
They had nothing.
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他們只有塵土、泥土。
他們一無所有。
04:13
So now they're in the cities城市,
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所以,現在他們在城市中,
04:15
the Iraqis伊拉克人 are in the cities城市,
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伊拉克人在城市中,
04:16
it's Assad阿薩德, it's not like
he's taking服用 care關心 of his people,
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總統是阿薩德,
他並不是會照顧人民的人,
04:19
and all of a sudden突然
we have just this huge巨大 issue問題 here
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突然間,我們就有了這個巨大議題,
04:24
of massive大規模的 instability不穩定
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這個議題就是極度的不穩定性
04:26
and a breeding配種 ground地面 for extremism極端主義.
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以及極端主義的滋生地。
04:28
And this is why in the security安全 community社區
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這就是為什麼在安全共同體中,
04:30
we call climate氣候 change更改
a risk風險 to instability不穩定.
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我們會把氣候變遷
稱為不穩定性的風險。
04:34
It accelerates加速 instability不穩定 here.
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在這裡,它會加速不穩定性。
04:36
In plain English英語,
it makes品牌 bad places地方 worse更差.
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用白話英文來說,
它會讓不好的地方變更糟。
04:40
So let's go to another另一個 place地點 here.
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我們再來看看另一個地方。
04:41
Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers公里,
or about 1,200 miles英里, north of Oslo奧斯陸,
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我們要再走 2000 公里
或約 1200 英哩,到北奧斯陸,
04:46
only 600 miles英里 from the Pole,
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離北極只有 600 英哩,
04:49
and this is arguably按理說
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這可以說是
04:51
the most strategic戰略 island
you've never heard聽說 of.
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你從來沒有聽過,
卻最具戰略性的島嶼。
04:53
It's a place地點 called Svalbard斯瓦爾巴.
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這個地方叫做斯瓦巴。
04:55
It sits坐鎮 astride跨越 the sea lanes車道
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它橫跨各個海上航路,
04:57
that the Russian俄語 Northern北方 Fleet艦隊 needs需求
to get out and go into warmer回暖 waters水域.
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俄國的北方艦隊需要從這些航路出去
到更溫暖的水域。
05:03
It is also, by virtue美德 of its geography地理,
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此外,因為這個地方的地勢,
05:06
a place地點 where you can control控制
every一切 single polar極性 orbiting軌道 satellite衛星
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從這裡,你能控制在每條軌道上
環繞的每一顆繞極軌道衛星。
05:09
on every一切 orbit軌道.
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05:10
It is the strategic戰略 high ground地面 of space空間.
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它是太空的策略性高地。
05:13
Climate氣候 change更改 has greatly非常 reduced減少
the sea ice around here,
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氣候變遷大大減少了這裡的海冰,
05:16
greatly非常 increasing增加 human人的 activity活動,
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大大增加了人類活動,
它變成了一觸即發的爆發點,
05:19
and it's becoming變得 a flashpoint閃點,
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05:21
and in fact事實 the NATO北約
Parliamentary議會 Assembly部件
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事實上,北大西洋公約組織議會大會
05:23
is going to meet遇到 here
on Svalbard斯瓦爾巴 next下一個 month.
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下個月將會在斯瓦巴這裡開會。
05:26
The Russians俄羅斯 are very,
very unhappy不快樂 about that.
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俄國人對此非常不高興。
05:29
So if you want to find
a flashpoint閃點 in the Arctic北極,
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如果你想要在北極圈找一個爆發點,
05:31
look at Svalbard斯瓦爾巴 there.
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那就是斯瓦巴了。
05:34
Now, in the military軍事,
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在軍中,
05:36
we have known已知 for decades幾十年,
if not centuries百年,
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數百年或至少數十年來,我們都知道
05:38
that the time to prepare準備,
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面對不論是颶風、
05:40
whether是否 it's for a hurricane颶風,
a typhoon颱風 or strategic戰略 changes變化,
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颱風,或策略改變,做準備的時間點
05:44
is before they hit擊中 you,
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是在它來襲之前。
05:46
and Admiral上將 Nimitznimitz was right there.
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尼米茲將軍就在那裡。
05:48
That is the time to prepare準備.
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那就是做準備的時間點。
05:50
Fortunately幸好, our Secretary秘書 of Defense防禦,
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幸運的是,我們的國防部長,
05:52
Secretary秘書 Mattis馬蒂斯,
he understands理解 that as well,
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馬提斯部長,他也了解這一點,
05:55
and what he understands理解
is that climate氣候 is a risk風險.
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他了解的是,氣候是一項風險。
05:58
He has said so in his written書面
responses回复 to Congress國會,
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他在給國會的
書面回應中提到這一點,
06:01
and he says, "As Secretary秘書 of Defense防禦,
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他寫說:「身為國防部長,
06:03
it's my job工作 to manage管理 such這樣 risks風險."
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我的工作就是要管理這類風險。」
06:06
It's not only the US military軍事
that understands理解 this.
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不只有美國軍方了解這一點。
06:10
Many許多 of our friends朋友 and allies盟國
in other navies海軍 and other militaries軍隊
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我們在其他海軍及軍隊中的
許多朋友和盟友
06:14
have very clear-eyed頭腦清晰 views意見
about the climate氣候 risk風險.
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對於氣候風險有著非常清晰的了解。
06:18
And in fact事實, in 2014, I was honored榮幸
to speak說話 for a half-a-day半天 seminar研討會
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事實上,2014 年,
我有榮幸在為期半天的
06:22
at the International國際 Seapower海權 Symposium座談會
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國際海權研討會上演說,
06:24
to 70 heads of navies海軍 about this issue問題.
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與七十位海軍將領談論這個議題。
06:29
So Winston溫斯頓 Churchill丘吉爾
is alleged所謂的 to have said,
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據說邱吉爾說過,
06:31
I'm not sure if he said anything,
but he's alleged所謂的 to have said
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我不確定他說過什麼,
但據說他說過,
06:35
that Americans美國人 can always
be counted upon to do the right thing
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永遠可以仰賴美國人,
相信他們會做對的事,
06:39
after exhausting辛苦 every一切 other possibility可能性.
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如果所有其他可能性都已用盡的話。
06:41
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:42
So I would argue爭論
we're still in the process處理
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我會爭辯說,我們還在努力用盡
06:44
of exhausting辛苦 every一切 other possibility可能性,
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所有其他可能性的過程當中,
06:46
but I do think we will prevail戰勝.
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但我確實認為我們會獲勝。
06:49
But I need your help.
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但我需要你們協助。
06:50
This is my ask.
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這是我的請願。
06:52
I ask not that you take
your recycling回收 out on Wednesday星期三,
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我請求的不是你們要在
星期三把回收物拿出來回收,
06:55
but that you engage從事
with every一切 business商業 leader領導,
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而是要你們去接觸每一位企業領導者、
06:58
every一切 technology技術 leader領導,
every一切 government政府 leader領導,
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每一位科技領導者、
每一位政府領導者,
07:01
and ask them, "Ma'am女士, sir先生,
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並問他們:「女士/先生,
07:04
what are you doing
to stabilize穩定 the climate氣候?"
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你做了什麼事來穩定氣候?」
07:07
It's just that simple簡單.
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就這麼簡單。
07:09
Because when enough足夠 people care關心 enough足夠,
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因為,當足夠的人有足夠的在乎,
07:12
the politicians政治家, most of whom
won't慣於 lead on this issue問題 --
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在這個議題上,雖然
大部分政客不會帶頭──
07:16
but they will be led --
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但他們會被引領──
07:18
that will change更改 this.
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那就能改變這狀況。
07:19
Because I can tell you,
the ice doesn't care關心.
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因為我能告訴各位,冰並不在乎。
07:23
The ice doesn't care關心
who's誰是 in the White白色 House.
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冰並不在乎誰坐鎮白宮。
07:25
It doesn't care關心 which哪一個 party派對
controls控制 your congress國會.
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冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的國會。
07:28
It doesn't care關心 which哪一個 party派對
controls控制 your parliament議會.
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冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的議會。
07:31
It just melts熔體.
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它就是會融化。
07:33
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝你們。
07:34
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Regina Chu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Titley - Meteorologist
Scientist and retired Navy officer Dr. David Titley asks a big question: Could the US military play a role in combating climate change?

Why you should listen

David Titley is a Professor of Practice in Meteorology and a Professor of International Affairs at the Pennsylvania State University. He is the founding director of Penn State’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. He served as a naval officer for 32 years and rose to the rank of Rear Admiral. Titley’s career included duties as commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command; oceanographer and navigator of the Navy; and deputy assistant chief of naval operations for information dominance. He also served as senior military assistant for the director, Office of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

While serving in the Pentagon, Titley initiated and led the U.S. Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. After retiring from the Navy, Titley served as the Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Operations, the chief operating officer position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Titley serves on numerous advisory boards and National Academies of Science committees, including the CNA Military Advisory Board, the Center for Climate and Security and the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Titley is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

More profile about the speaker
David Titley | Speaker | TED.com