ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.

Why you should listen

Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Livesdives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.

Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com
TED2010

Michael Specter: The danger of science denial

麦克尔·斯巴克特:否认科学的危险

Filmed:
2,161,284 views

疫苗能引发自闭症?我们是否该禁止“恶魔食品”?草药制的类似安慰剂真的有效?这些都表明了公众对科学和理智判断的畏惧变大(经常,甚至完全否认),麦克尔如是说。他警告说,认为这样一种态度对于人类进步是有灾难性后果的。
- Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
Let's pretend假装 right here we have a machine.
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让我们设想这里有一台机器,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ishTED-ISH machine,
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它是一个很大的,很酷的,很TED的机器,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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它是一个时间机器。
00:22
And everyone大家 in this room房间 has to get into it.
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这里每个人都要走进这个时间机器。
00:24
And you can go backwards向后, you can go forwards前锋;
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你可以选择返回过去或走到未来,
00:26
you cannot不能 stay where you are.
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就是不能停在当下。
00:28
And I wonder奇迹 what you'd choose选择, because I've been asking my friends朋友
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我在想你们会怎么选,近来我问了我的朋友很多次这个问题,
00:30
this question a lot lately最近 and they all want to go back.
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他们的回答都是“回到过去”。
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles汽车
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我不理解。他们说,要回到没有汽车、
00:35
or Twitter推特 or "American美国 Idol偶像."
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没有twitter或《美国偶像》的年代。
00:37
I don't know.
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我真的不理解。
00:39
I'm convinced相信 that there's some sort分类 of pull
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我敢肯定,这里必然是有一些怀旧的情愫
00:41
to nostalgia怀旧之情, to wishful如意 thinking思维.
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或者是痴心妄想。
00:43
And I understand理解 that.
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这我也能理解。
00:45
I'm not part部分 of that crowd人群, I have to say.
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但是我必须承认,我跟他们不是一伙的。
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous爱冒险的.
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我不想回到过去,不是因为我喜欢冒险,
00:50
It's because possibilities可能性 on this planet行星,
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而是因为这个地球上的可能性,
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward前锋.
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不是走到过去可以获得的,你要走到未来。
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward前锋.
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也就是说,我想走进这个机器,走到未来。
00:57
This is the greatest最大 time there's ever been on this planet行星
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我们这个时代是最美好的时代,
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by any measure测量 that you wish希望 to choose选择:
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不管你用何种方式来衡量,如:
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health健康, wealth财富,
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健康、财富、
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mobility流动性, opportunity机会,
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流动性、机遇、
01:06
declining下降 rates利率 of disease疾病 ...
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患病率不断下降。
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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从来没有过这么好的时代。
01:10
My great-grandparents曾祖父母 died死亡, all of them,
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我的曾祖父母
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by the time they were 60.
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在60岁的时候就死去了。
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My grandparents祖父母 pushed that number to 70.
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我的祖父母70多岁就死了。
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My parents父母 are closing关闭 in on 80.
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我的父母过世时是80几岁。
01:18
So there better be
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我希望我死去的时候
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a nine at the beginning开始 of my death死亡 number.
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是在一个9数字开头的时候。
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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但这不仅仅是关乎我们这些人的事情,
01:26
because this is a bigger deal合同 than that.
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因为事实比我们自身大得多。
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A kid孩子 born天生 in New Delhi新德里 today今天
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今天在新德里出生的一个小孩
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can expect期望 to live生活 as long as
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可以像100年前世界上最富的人
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the richest首富 man in the world世界 did 100 years年份 ago.
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一样长寿命。
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible难以置信 fact事实.
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大家认真想想。这是个很了不起的事实啊。
01:37
And why is it true真正?
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为什么会出现这样的事实呢?
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Smallpox天花. Smallpox天花 killed杀害 billions数十亿
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是因为我们消灭了天花。
01:41
of people on this planet行星.
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天花曾夺去了地球上数以亿计的人的生命。
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It reshaped重塑 the demography人口统计学 of the globe地球
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它重塑了地球的人口布局,
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in a way that no war战争 ever has.
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这是任何战争也无法相比的。
01:47
It's gone走了. It's vanished消失.
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但今天它已被彻底消灭了。
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We vanquished征服 it. Puff.
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是人类铲除了它。
01:51
In the rich丰富 world世界,
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在当今的富有社会里
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diseases疾病 that threatened受威胁 millions百万 of us just a generation ago
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仅仅一代人之前还给数百万人的生命带来威胁的疾病已经
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no longer exist存在, hardly几乎不.
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几乎不再出现了。
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Diphtheria白喉, rubella风疹, polio脊髓灰质炎 ...
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白喉, 德国麻疹,小儿麻痹症都几乎不存在了。
02:00
does anyone任何人 even know what those things are?
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你们知道这些名字是什么意思吗?
02:03
Vaccines疫苗, modern现代 medicine医学,
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疫苗和现代医学
02:06
our ability能力 to feed饲料 billions数十亿 of people,
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以及人类为数百万人提供食品的能力,
02:08
those are triumphs胜利 of the scientific科学 method方法.
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这些都是科学方法的胜利。
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And to my mind心神, the scientific科学 method方法 --
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在我看来,科学方法
02:12
trying stuff东东 out,
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就是不断的尝试,
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seeing眼看 if it works作品, changing改变 it when it doesn't --
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检验,改变的过程。
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments成就 of humanity人性.
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它本身也是人类最伟大的功绩之一。
02:19
So that's the good news新闻.
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所以这些都是好消息。
02:21
Unfortunately不幸, that's all the good news新闻
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但不幸的是,好消息就这么多,
02:23
because there are some other problems问题, and they've他们已经 been mentioned提到 many许多 times.
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因为我们还遇到了其他一些难题,也被提到过很多次。
02:26
And one of them is that
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其中一个就是,
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despite尽管 all our accomplishments成就,
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虽然我们取得了巨大的进步,
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a billion十亿 people go to bed hungry饥饿
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但是现在世界上还有10亿人吃不饱肚子,
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in this world世界 every一切 day.
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每天,他们都在忍受饥饿的折磨。
02:34
That number's数字的 rising升起, and it's rising升起 really rapidly急速, and it's disgraceful可耻.
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这一数字还在上升,并且上升的速度很快。这是足以让我们丢脸的。
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And not only that, we've我们已经 used our imagination想像力
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不仅如此,人类的想象力
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to thoroughly trash垃圾 this globe地球.
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还给地球带来了巨大的垃圾。
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Potable饮用水 water, arable可耕的 land土地,
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饮用水、可耕地、
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rainforests热带雨林, oil, gas加油站:
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热带雨林、石油、天然气,
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they're going away, and they're going away soon不久,
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这些资源都在消失,并且消失的速度也很快。
02:49
and unless除非 we innovate创新 our way out of this mess食堂,
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除非我们懂得去创新,
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we're going away too.
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否则我们就没有任何希望了。
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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问题是:我们做得到吗?我想我们可以做到。
02:57
I think it's clear明确 that we can make food餐饮
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我认为我们可以生产出足以养活数十亿人的粮食,
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that will feed饲料 billions数十亿 of people without raping强奸 the land土地 that they live生活 on.
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而不会损害他们赖以生存的土地。
03:02
I think we can power功率 this world世界 with energy能源
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我认为我们可以找到环境友好的能源
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that doesn't also destroy破坏 it.
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来供给世界能量。
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful如意 thinking思维.
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我确实是深信这样的理论的,这绝对不是臆想。
03:09
But here's这里的 the thing that keeps保持 me up at night --
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但我总是遇到让我晚上睡不着觉的事情。
03:12
one of the things that keeps保持 me up at night:
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这是其中一个让我晚上睡不着的事情。
03:16
We've我们已经 never needed需要 progress进展 in science科学 more than we need it right now. Never.
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人类历史上从来没有象今天这样急需科技的进步
03:19
And we've我们已经 also never been in a position位置
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而历史上我们也从未有过像今天这样的时机,
03:21
to deploy部署 it properly正确 in the way that we can today今天.
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我们可以按照我们的意愿去使用这些科技。
03:23
We're on the verge边缘 of amazing惊人, amazing惊人 events事件
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在许多领域,我们都站在了惊人发现的
03:26
in many许多 fields领域,
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时代。
03:28
and yet然而 I actually其实 think we'd星期三 have to go back
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事实上,我认为我们需要往回看,
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hundreds数以百计, 300 years年份, before the Enlightenment启示,
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回到300年前,回到文艺复兴之前的年代,
03:33
to find a time when we battled作战 progress进展,
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只有在那个年代,才有人要抵抗进步,
03:36
when we fought战斗 about these things
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才会有人比我们今天更加
03:38
more vigorously大力, on more fronts战线, than we do now.
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猛烈的去反抗科技的进步。
03:41
People wrap themselves他们自己 in their beliefs信仰,
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人们总是喜欢把自己放在自己的理念框架里,
03:43
and they do it so tightly紧紧 that you can't set them free自由.
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他们把自己包得那么死,往往无法脱身。
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Not even the truth真相 will set them free自由.
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即使是听到了真理也不能使他们产生动摇。
03:48
And, listen, everyone's大家的 entitled标题 to their opinion意见;
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听着,每个人都可以坚持他的观点,
03:51
they're even entitled标题 to their opinion意见 about progress进展.
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他们甚至可以坚持他们关于进步的观点,
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled标题 to?
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但你知道你不能坚持什么吗?
03:55
You're not entitled标题 to your own拥有 facts事实. Sorry, you're not.
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你不能只坚持你自己所知道的事实。真的,你不能。
03:58
And this took me awhile一会儿 to figure数字 out.
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我也是花了一段时间才领悟出来的
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story故事 about vaccines疫苗
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大约十年前,我给《纽约客》写了一个故事
04:02
for The New Yorker纽约客. A little story故事.
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一个关于疫苗小故事。
04:04
And I was amazed吃惊 to find opposition反对:
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但我发现竟然有那么多人要反对我
04:06
opposition反对 to what is, after all,
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他们反对的是
04:09
the most effective有效 public上市 health健康 measure测量 in human人的 history历史.
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人类历史上最有效的公共卫生预防措施。
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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我真的不知该怎么做,
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story故事 and I moved移动 on.
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我就只做自己该做的。故事写完,我就做别的事。
04:17
And soon不久 after that,
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不久之后,
04:20
I wrote a story故事 about genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐饮.
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我写了一个关于转基因食物的文章。
04:22
Same相同 thing, only bigger.
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又是收到了大量的反对,声浪大于上一次。
04:24
People were going crazy.
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人们简直是发疯了。
04:26
So I wrote a story故事 about that too,
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于是我也就此写了一个文章,
04:28
and I couldn't不能 understand理解 why
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我真的不能理解为何人们会把这理解为
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods弗兰肯,"
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“恶魔食物”,
04:32
why they thought moving移动 molecules分子 around
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我不理解,为何人们会认为按照特定的方式
04:34
in a specific具体, rather than a haphazard偶然 way,
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而非任意的方式,来搬运生物分子
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was trespassing on nature's大自然 ground地面.
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是在玩弄自然。
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story故事, I moved移动 on.
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不过我还是只做我该做的。故事写完后,我就不管它了。
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist记者.
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我是个记者,
04:44
We type类型, we file文件, we go to dinner晚餐. It's fine.
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我们的工作就是写文章,发表,吃饭,这就是我们的生活。
04:47
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:50
But these stories故事 bothered困扰 me,
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但是这些见闻还是让我心里感到不舒服,
04:52
and I couldn't不能 figure数字 out why, and eventually终于 I did.
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我也不知道是什么原因,直到后来我才知道。
04:54
And that's because those fanatics狂热分子 that were driving主动 me crazy
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那些曾经把我逼疯的狂热分子
04:57
weren't actually其实 fanatics狂热分子 at all.
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事实上并非狂热分子
04:59
They were thoughtful周到 people, educated博学 people, decent正经 people.
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他们都是有想法的人,受过良好教育的人,正直的公民。
05:02
They were exactly究竟 like the people in this room房间.
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他们就像这个房间里的人们。
05:06
And it just disturbed不安 me so much.
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这确实让我十分头疼,
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest诚实.
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后来我想,说实话:
05:11
We're at a point in this world世界
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我们今天的时代对于进步的关系
05:13
where we don't have the same相同 relationship关系 to progress进展 that we used to.
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已经不同于往日了。
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently持矛盾.
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我们现在是以一种很疑惑的眼光来看待进步。
05:18
We talk about it in ironic具有讽刺意味 terms条款 with little quotes报价 around it:
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我们会以讽刺的口吻来谈论进步
05:20
"progress进展."
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并且会加上引号:“进步”。
05:23
Okay, there are reasons原因 for that, and I think we know what those reasons原因 are.
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我想是有原因的,我们也知道是什么原因。
05:26
We've我们已经 lost丢失 faith信仰 in institutions机构,
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我们对于民间机构,
05:28
in authority权威,
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对政府,
05:30
and sometimes有时 in science科学 itself本身,
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有时甚至是对科学,已经失去了信任,
05:32
and there's no reason原因 we shouldn't不能 have.
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也许我们确实有不信任的理由。
05:34
You can just say a few少数 names
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讲出几个名字你就知道
05:36
and people will understand理解.
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是什么原因了。
05:38
Chernobyl切尔诺贝利, Bhopal博帕尔, the Challenger挑战者,
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切尔诺贝利,博帕尔,挑战者号,
05:41
Vioxx万络, weapons武器 of mass destruction毁坏,
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还有Vioxx抗关节炎药, 大规模杀伤性武器,
05:44
hanging chads纸屑.
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半打出的选票。
05:46
You know, you can choose选择 your list名单.
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我想大家可以在自己心中把这样一个清单列出来。
05:49
There are questions问题 and problems问题
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我们过去完全信任的永远是对的,
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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现在都出问题了。
05:53
so be skeptical怀疑的.
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所以大家还是应当要有一点怀疑的态度。
05:56
Ask questions问题, demand需求 proof证明, demand需求 evidence证据.
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要问几个问题,要索求证明和证据。
05:59
Don't take anything for granted理所当然.
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凡事千万不能信以为真。
06:01
But here's这里的 the thing: When you get proof证明,
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但有一点需要注意,当你获得证据的时候,
06:04
you need to accept接受 the proof证明, and we're not that good at doing that.
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你需要接受那样的证据,但我们并不善于这么做。
06:07
And the reason原因 that I can say that is because
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原因,我认为是
06:09
we're now in an epidemic疫情 of fear恐惧
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我们现在都得了恐惧的传染病,
06:11
like one I've never seen看到 and hope希望 never to see again.
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这样一种传染病之广度和深度是我从未经历的,更希望以后不会再次出现。
06:14
About 12 years年份 ago, there was a story故事 published发表,
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12年前,媒体暴光了一则消息,
06:16
a horrible可怕 story故事,
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那是一个非常可怕的消息,
06:18
that linked关联 the epidemic疫情 of autism自闭症
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它将自闭症
06:21
to the measles麻疹, mumps腮腺炎 and rubella风疹 vaccine疫苗 shot射击.
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与接受麻疹、腮腺炎和风疹疫苗注射关联在一起。
06:24
Very scary害怕.
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确实很可怕。
06:26
Tons of studies学习 were doneDONE to see if this was true真正.
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于是有大量的研究围绕这一事件而展开。
06:29
Tons of studies学习 should have been doneDONE; it's a serious严重 issue问题.
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确实有必要做这些研究,因为那确实是一个严重的事件。
06:32
The data数据 came来了 back.
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最后数据出来了。
06:34
The data数据 came来了 back from the United联合的 States状态, from England英国,
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来自美国、英国
06:36
from Sweden瑞典, from Canada加拿大,
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瑞典、加拿大的数据验证了
06:38
and it was all the same相同: no correlation相关,
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同样的结论,即自闭症和疫苗二者之间没有关联,
06:40
no connection连接, none没有 at all.
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没有任何联系,根本没有联系。
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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但这个结果对于大众而言没有太大意义。
06:44
because we believe anecdotes轶事,
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因为我们喜欢听小故事,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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我们会相信我们眼睛看到的,相信我们内心认为我们看到的
06:48
what makes品牌 us feel real真实.
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相信那些让我们觉得真实的事情。
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents文件
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但就是不相信一堆的化验文件,
06:52
from a government政府 official官方 giving us data数据,
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不相信来自政府部门的数据,
06:54
and I do understand理解 that, I think we all do.
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我也能理解这一点,我想我们所有人都有这样的心理。
06:56
But you know what?
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但后果如何呢?
06:58
The result结果 of that has been disastrous惨重.
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后果令人不堪设想,
07:00
Disastrous惨重 because here's这里的 a fact事实:
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请听这个事实:
07:03
The United联合的 States状态 is one of the only countries国家 in the world世界
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美国是世界上唯一一个
07:05
where the vaccine疫苗 rate for measles麻疹 is going down.
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麻疹接种比例在下降的国家。
07:08
That is disgraceful可耻,
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这足以让我们感到羞辱,
07:10
and we should be ashamed羞愧 of ourselves我们自己.
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我们应当为此感到惭愧。
07:12
It's horrible可怕.
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这是很可怕的事情。
07:14
What kind of a thing happened发生
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到底是因为什么
07:16
that we could do that?
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才使得这样的事情发生?
07:18
Now, I understand理解 it. I do understand理解 it.
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现在我明白了。真的明白了。
07:21
Because, did anyone任何人 have measles麻疹 here?
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请问这里有人得过麻疹吗?
07:23
Has one person in this audience听众 ever seen看到 someone有人 die of measles麻疹?
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你们当中有人看到别人因为患上了麻疹而死亡吗?
07:26
Doesn't happen发生 very much.
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不多、不多。
07:28
Doesn't happen发生 in this country国家 at all,
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事实上它也不会发生在这个国家,
07:30
but it happened发生 160,000 times in the world世界 last year.
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但是,过去一年里,有16万人因为患有麻疹而死去。
07:32
That's a lot of death死亡 of measles麻疹 --
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这个数字是巨大的,
07:34
20 an hour小时.
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基本是每个小时有20人因此而死去。
07:36
But since以来 it didn't happen发生 here, we can put it out of our minds头脑,
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但是因为它不是发生在我们身边,我们可以不管这事情,
07:39
and people like Jenny珍妮 McCarthy麦卡锡
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像Jenny McCarthy那样的人
07:41
can go around preaching说教 messages消息
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则依然能够在
07:43
of fear恐惧 and illiteracy文盲 from platforms平台
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奥普拉和拉里金的节目上
07:45
like "Oprah奥普拉" and "Larry拉里 King国王 Live生活."
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传播他们的畏惧和无知信息。
07:48
And they can do it because
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他们之所以这么做
07:50
they don't link链接 causation因果关系 and correlation相关.
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是因为他们没有把原因与关联放在一起看。
07:52
They don't understand理解 that these things seem似乎 the same相同,
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他们也不知道,那些看上去一样的东西
07:55
but they're almost几乎 never the same相同.
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事实上从来都不是一样的。
07:57
And it's something we need to learn学习, and we need to learn学习 it really soon不久.
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我们需要从中汲取经验教训,并且越早越好。
08:00
This guy was a hero英雄, Jonas乔纳斯 Salk索尔克.
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这位叫Jonas Salk的男士是一个英雄。
08:03
He took one of the worst最差 scourges祸害 of mankind人类 away from us.
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因为他发明了小儿麻痹症的疫苗使得人们避免了这最严重的灾难。
08:06
No fear恐惧, no agony痛苦. Polio脊髓灰质炎 -- puff, gone走了.
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现在人们不需要去畏惧患上这一疾病了,也不会有患病带来的痛楚,小儿麻痹症消失了。
08:09
That guy in the middle中间, not so much.
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中间那个男人就不是那么风光了。
08:12
His name名称 is Paul保罗 OffitOffit.
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他叫Paul Offit。
08:14
He just developed发达 a rotavirus轮状病毒 vaccine疫苗 with a bunch of other people.
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他与其他几位研究者一道发明了轮状病毒疫苗。
08:16
It'll它会 save保存 the lives生活 of 400 to 500,000 kids孩子
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这一疫苗每一年可以拯救发展中国家
08:19
in the developing发展 world世界 every一切 year.
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4亿50万孩子的生命。
08:21
Pretty漂亮 good, right?
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应当是好事,不是吗?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul保罗 goes around talking about vaccines疫苗
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确实是很好。这是Paul会四处跟人们讲这一疫苗,
08:25
and says how valuable有价值 they are
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说它们有多好,
08:27
and that people ought应该 to just stop the whining呜呜.
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并称人们从此可以告别苦楚。
08:29
And he actually其实 says it that way.
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他确实是这么说的。
08:31
So, Paul's保罗 a terrorist恐怖分子.
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因此,我们把Paul当成是恐怖主义分子。
08:34
When Paul保罗 speaks说话 in a public上市 hearing听力,
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当Paul要公开作证的时候,
08:36
he can't testify作证 without armed武装 guards卫士.
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他身边必须要有武装保安。
08:38
He gets得到 called at home
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他在家里会接到恐吓电话
08:40
because people like to tell him
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因为人们会跟他说
08:42
that they remember记得 where his kids孩子 go to school学校.
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他们知道他孩子在哪里上学。
08:44
And why? Because Paul保罗 made制作 a vaccine疫苗.
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为什么?因为Paul发明了一种疫苗。
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines疫苗 are essential必要.
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我本不需要讲这个的,但疫苗确实是极其重要的。
08:50
You take them away, disease疾病 comes back,
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一旦停止疫苗注射,疾病又会卷土重来,
08:52
horrible可怕 diseases疾病. And that's happening事件.
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并且是非常可怕的疾病,这样的事情正在发生。
08:55
We have measles麻疹 in this country国家 now.
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现在美国也出现麻疹了。
08:57
And it's getting得到 worse更差, and pretty漂亮 soon不久 kids孩子
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并且情况变得越来越糟糕,
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers数字 game游戏.
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不久,就会有孩子因为患上这个病而死,这只是一个数字问题。
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles麻疹.
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不仅仅是麻疹呢。
09:03
What about polio脊髓灰质炎? Let's have that. Why not?
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还有小儿麻痹症,谁敢说它不会重新出现?
09:05
A college学院 classmate同学 of mine wrote me a couple一对 weeks ago and said
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我的一位大学同学几周前给我写了一封信,
09:08
she thought I was a little strident刺耳.
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她说我现在有点太过张扬了。
09:10
No one's那些 ever said that before.
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之前从来没有人这么说的。
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate接种疫苗 her kid孩子 against反对 polio脊髓灰质炎,
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她说她不打算给孩子接种小儿麻痹症疫苗。
09:15
no way.
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肯定不会。
09:17
Fine.
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好吧。
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio脊髓灰质炎. And you know what?
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为什么?因为这个国家没有小儿麻痹症。但你知道吗?
09:21
We didn't have polio脊髓灰质炎 in this country国家 yesterday昨天.
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我们昨天没有这个传染病。
09:24
Today今天, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane平面 in Lagos拉各斯 this morning早上,
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今天,我不知道,也许一位嘉宾从拉各斯上飞机,
09:27
and he's flying飞行 to LAXLAX, right now he's over Ohio俄亥俄州.
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他的目的地是洛杉矶机场,现在已经到了俄亥俄州。
09:29
And he's going to land土地 in a couple一对 of hours小时, he's going to rent出租 a car汽车,
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几个小时之后他就要到达地面,他会打车
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach海滩,
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来到长滩市,
09:34
and he's going to attend出席 one of these fabulous极好 TEDTED dinners晚餐 tonight今晚.
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来到这里参加其中一场TED晚宴。
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected感染 with a paralytic瘫子 disease疾病,
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他不知道自己是感染了小儿麻痹症,
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world世界 works作品.
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我们也不知道,这就是世界的事实。
09:43
That's the planet行星 we live生活 on. Don't pretend假装 it isn't.
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我们地球的事实就是这样的。不要以为不是。
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves我们自己 in lies. We love to do it.
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我们喜欢相信谎言。我们都很喜欢这么做。
09:49
Everyone大家 take their vitamins维生素 this morning早上?
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你们每个人早上都吃了维他命片吗?
09:51
Echinacea松果, a little antioxidant抗氧化剂
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或者紫锥花,或者一点的抗氧化剂,
09:53
to get you going.
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只有吃过那些你才感觉比较清醒。
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans美国人 do every一切 day.
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你之所以这么做,是因为每天有半数的美国人也这么做。
09:58
They take the stuff东东, and they take alternative替代 medicines药品,
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他们会吃这东西,,也会吃替代药物,
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often经常
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尽管我们已经知道
10:03
we find out that they're useless无用.
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这些东西实际上是无效的。
10:05
The data数据 says it all the time.
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数据就是这么说的。
10:07
They darken变暗 your urine尿. They almost几乎 never do more than that.
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吃这些只会使得你的尿液变黑。除此以外,它们不起任何作用。
10:10
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay工资 28 billion十亿 dollars美元 for dark黑暗 urine尿?
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假如你愿意花280亿美元来获得一些黑色的尿液,
10:15
I'm totally完全 with you.
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我也没有反对。
10:17
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:19
Dark黑暗 urine尿. Dark黑暗.
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是黑色的尿液,黑色的哦。
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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为什么要这么做呢?为什么?
10:24
Well, I think I understand理解, we hate讨厌 Big Pharma制药.
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我想我也许能理解。我们这个国家药品行业非常庞大。
10:26
We hate讨厌 Big Government政府. We don't trust相信 the Man.
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而我们都讨厌大政府,因为我们对那里面的人不信任。
10:28
And we shouldn't不能: Our health健康 care关心 system系统 sucks.
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但我们不一定要这么做。我们的医保体制很烂。
10:31
It's cruel残忍 to millions百万 of people.
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对于数百万的国民来讲,那是一个残酷体制
10:33
It's absolutely绝对 astonishingly令人惊讶 cold
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而对于那些能够支付起的人们来说
10:36
and soul-bending灵魂弯曲 to those of us who can even afford给予 it.
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这也绝对是非常冷酷和无情的一种医疗体制。
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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于是我们就想办法逃离这样体制。逃到哪里去呢?
10:42
We leap飞跃 into the arms武器 of Big Placebo安慰剂.
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我们投入了安慰剂的巨大怀抱。
10:44
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:47
That's fantastic奇妙. I love Big Placebo安慰剂.
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这个很精彩哦,我很喜欢安慰剂。
10:49
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious严重 thing
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但是你要知道,这的确是个严重的事情
10:57
because this stuff东东 is crap掷骰子,
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缘于这东西是一个破烂货,
10:59
and we spend billions数十亿 of dollars美元 on it.
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但我们却花了数以亿计的银子来购买安慰剂。
11:01
And I have all sorts排序 of little props道具 here.
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我这里带来了各种各样的样品。
11:04
None没有 of it ... ginkgo银杏, fraud舞弊;
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它们当中没有一样是有效,不管是银杏果,
11:06
echinacea松果, fraud舞弊;
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紫锥花,
11:08
acai阿萨伊 -- I don't even know what that is
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阿薩伊果,都是幌子。我甚至不知道这是什么,
11:10
but we're spending开支 billions数十亿 of dollars美元 on it -- it's fraud舞弊.
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但是我们就花了数十亿银子来购买它们,这是欺骗。
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff东东, people scream惊叫 at me,
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但你知道吗?当我说到这里的时候,人们会对我尖叫。
11:15
and they say, "What do you care关心? Let people do what they want to do.
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他们会说,“你管什么闲事!让人们自己去做选择就行啦!
11:18
It makes品牌 them feel good."
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吃安慰剂至少使人们内心感到舒服些啊!"
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong错误.
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你晓得吗?你们错了。
11:22
Because I don't care关心
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我是不会放在心里的。
11:24
if it's the secretary秘书 of HHSHHS
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假如美国健康与公共事业部部长
11:26
who's谁是 saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence证据
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说,“我才不管专家
11:29
of my experts专家 on mammograms乳房X光检查,"
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所找到的关于乳房X线照片的证据呢"
11:31
or some cancer癌症 quack嘎嘎 who wants to treat对待 his patient患者
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或者是一个癌症庸医想通过
11:34
with coffee咖啡 enemas灌肠.
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咖啡灌肠来医治他的病人。
11:36
When you start开始 down the road
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假如你相信信念和魔术
11:38
where belief信仰 and magic魔法 replace更换 evidence证据 and science科学,
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而非证据与科学的话,
11:41
you end结束 up in a place地点 you don't want to be.
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你最终只会去到一个你不想去到的地方。
11:43
You end结束 up in Thabo萨波 Mbeki姆贝基 South Africa非洲.
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也许你最终会成为南非前领导人姆贝基。
11:45
He killed杀害 400,000 of his people
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他坚持相信
11:48
by insisting坚持 that beetroot红菜头,
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甜菜根蒜和柠檬油
11:50
garlic大蒜 and lemon柠檬 oil
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比起我们所知可延缓艾滋病的抗逆转录病毒药物对于治疗艾滋病
11:52
were much more effective有效 than the antiretroviral抗逆转录病毒 drugs毒品
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更有效
11:54
we know can slow the course课程 of AIDS艾滋病.
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这导致了40万人因为感染艾滋病而死亡。
11:56
Hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 of needless不必要 deaths死亡
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成千上万的本不必要死亡的人们
11:58
in a country国家 that has been plagued困扰
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因此而死。
12:01
worse更差 than any other by this disease疾病.
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那里恰恰又是全球感染艾滋病最严重的地区。
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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请不要跟我说这些事例是
12:05
there are no consequences后果 to these things.
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不会产生严重后果的。
12:07
There are. There always are.
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后果是有的 ,总是会有的。
12:09
Now, the most mindless没头脑 epidemic疫情
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现在,我们遇到的最无知的传染病
12:11
we're in the middle中间 of right now
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就是转基因作物
12:13
is this absurd荒诞 battle战斗
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与有机精耕作物
12:15
between之间 proponents支持者 of genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐饮
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两个阵营之间的
12:18
and the organic有机 elite原种.
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愚蠢对抗。
12:20
It's an idiotic debate辩论. It has to stop.
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这也是一个愚蠢的争辩。我们必须停止这样的争辩了。
12:22
It's a debate辩论 about words, about metaphors隐喻.
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因为争辩的只是字眼和隐喻本身。
12:25
It's ideology思想, it's not science科学.
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是关于意识形态的争辩,而不是关于科学的争辩。
12:27
Every一切 single thing we eat, every一切 grain粮食 of rice白饭,
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我们吃进肚子里的每一样东西,每一颗饭,
12:29
every一切 sprig小枝 of parsley香菜,
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每一根香菜,
12:31
every一切 Brussels布鲁塞尔 sprout发芽
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每根布鲁塞尔豆芽
12:33
has been modified改性 by man.
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都曾被人类改变过。
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines蜜桔 in the garden花园 of Eden伊甸园.
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因为在伊甸园里本来就没有橘子的,
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe哈密​​瓜. (Laughter笑声)
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也没有哈密瓜,
12:39
There weren't Christmas圣诞 trees树木. We made制作 it all.
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更不会有圣诞树。都是人造出来的。
12:42
We made制作 it over the last 11,000 years年份.
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人类在过去一万一千年里造出了这些东西。
12:45
And some of it worked工作, and some of it didn't.
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有些试验成功了,有些失败了。
12:47
We got rid摆脱 of the stuff东东 that didn't.
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那些失败的尝试就被抛弃了。
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise精确 way --
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而现在我们可以以一种更为精准的方式来做试验。
12:51
and there are risks风险, absolutely绝对 --
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这肯定会有风险的。
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin维他命 A into rice白饭,
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但是我们可以把维他命A放到水稻的基因里,
12:56
and that stuff东东 can help millions百万 of people,
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这将会拯救数百万人的生命,
12:59
millions百万 of people, prolong延长 their lives生活.
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或者延长他们的寿命。
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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你不愿做这样的努力吗?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand理解 it.
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我只能说,我对此不理解。
13:07
We object目的 to genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐饮.
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我们不少人在反对转基因食物。
13:09
Why do we do that?
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为什么呢?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly经常 hear are:
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我经常听到的理由是:
13:13
Too many许多 chemicals化学制品,
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(转基因食物)太多化学成分了,
13:15
pesticides农药, hormones激素,
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太多农药、荷尔蒙,
13:17
monoculture单一种植, we don't want giant巨人 fields领域
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单一化的生产,
13:19
of the same相同 thing, that's wrong错误.
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确实我们不希望数百亩的地都是生产同样的作物,那样不好。
13:21
We don't companies公司 patenting专利 life.
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我们也不想让商业公司为新作物打上专利。
13:23
We don't want companies公司 owning拥有 seeds种子.
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我们也不想让大公司垄断种子。
13:25
And you know what my response响应 to all of that is?
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你能猜想我对这些反对意见的回应吗?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix固定 it.
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对,猜对了,让我们一起来解决这些问题。
13:30
It's true真正, we've我们已经 got a huge巨大 food餐饮 problem问题,
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不错,我们遇到了非常严重的食品问题,
13:32
but this isn't science科学.
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但这不是科学的问题。
13:34
This has nothing to do with science科学.
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因为这与科学无关。
13:36
It's law, it's morality道德, it's patent专利 stuff东东.
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这是法律、伦理、专利法相关的问题。
13:39
You know science科学 isn't a company公司.
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要知道,科学并非一家公司,
13:41
It's not a country国家.
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也不是一个国家,
13:43
It's not even an idea理念; it's a process处理.
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甚至不是一个想法,它是一个过程。
13:46
It's a process处理, and sometimes有时 it works作品 and sometimes有时 it doesn't,
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这样的过程有时候取得成功,有时候失败,
13:49
but the idea理念 that we should not allow允许
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但因为我们畏惧
13:52
science科学 to do its job工作
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而认为我们不该让科学家去
13:54
because we're afraid害怕,
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做深入研究本职工作
13:56
is really very deadening隔音材料,
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是非常可怕的,
13:58
and it's preventing防止 millions百万 of people
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这也会阻碍了数以百万计的人
14:00
from prospering繁荣.
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走向繁荣。
14:02
You know, in the next下一个 50 years年份
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未来的50年
14:04
we're going to have to grow增长 70 percent百分 more food餐饮 than we do right now,
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我们需要比现在种植
14:07
70 percent百分.
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多70%的粮食。
14:09
This investment投资 in Africa非洲 over the last 30 years年份.
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这是我们过去30年在非洲投资的总计。
14:12
Disgraceful可耻. Disgraceful可耻.
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这让我们很丢脸。
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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那里的人需要这些,但我们偏偏不给。
14:16
And why? Genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐饮.
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为什么?也是因为转基因食物。
14:19
We don't want to encourage鼓励 people
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我们不鼓励人们去
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff东东, like cassava木薯 for instance.
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吃变坏的食物,比如变坏的木薯。
14:24
Cassava's木薯的 something that half a billion十亿 people eat.
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世界上有5000万人是靠吃木薯为生的。
14:26
It's kind of like a potato土豆.
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那是跟马铃薯比较像的一种作物。
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories卡路里. It sucks.
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就只有卡路里,味道也不好。
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients营养成分, it doesn't have protein蛋白,
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没有营养,也没有蛋白质,
14:32
and scientists科学家们 are engineering工程
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现在有科学家在尝试
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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把这些加到木薯里。
14:36
And then people would be able能够 to eat it and they'd他们会 be able能够 to not go blind.
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吃到这些经过改良的木薯的人就可以避免失明。
14:39
They wouldn't不会 starve饿死, and you know what?
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也不会挨饿,你会了解到,
14:41
That would be nice不错. It wouldn't不会 be Chez切斯 PanissePanisse餐厅,
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这是好事情。虽然比不上高档餐厅,
14:44
but it would be nice不错.
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但也是好事。
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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我只能说,
14:50
Why are we fighting战斗 it?
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为什么有些人要反对这个?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves我们自己: Why are we fighting战斗 it?
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请大家问问自己:我们为何要反对?
14:54
Because we don't want to move移动 genes基因 around?
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因为我们不想移动基因组吗?
14:56
This is about moving移动 genes基因 around. It's not about chemicals化学制品.
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这仅仅是移动了一些基因组,跟添加化学物质没有任何关联。
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous荒谬 passion for hormones激素,
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跟荷尔蒙也没有关系。
15:02
our insistence坚持 on having bigger food餐饮,
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我们总是希望获得更大的食物,
15:04
better food餐饮, singular单数 food餐饮.
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更好的食物,更专一的食物。
15:06
This isn't about Rice白饭 Krispies脆片,
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这不是要造米酥,
15:08
this is about keeping保持 people alive,
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只是想让一些人活下来,
15:10
and it's about time we started开始 to understand理解 what that meant意味着.
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现在是时候我们认真理解这过程的含义了。
15:13
Because, you know something?
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你知道吗?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue继续 to act法案 the way we're acting演戏,
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假如我们不这么做,而是坚持现在的做法,
15:18
we're guilty有罪 of something that I don't think we want to be guilty有罪 of:
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我们未来将会因为一些我们不希望发生的事情而有负罪感,
15:21
high-tech高科技 colonialism殖民主义.
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那将是高科技的殖民主义。
15:23
There's no other way to describe描述 what's going on here.
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没有其他别的词语更合适于描述这一状况了。
15:25
It's selfish自私, it's ugly丑陋,
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这是自私的,肮脏的,
15:27
it's beneath下面 us,
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这么做只会降低我们的尊严,
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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我们必须停止这么做。
15:32
So after this amazingly令人惊讶 fun开玩笑 conversation会话,
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好了,这样一场非常有趣的对话之后,
15:35
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
15:37
you might威力 want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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你也许会说,“你还会走进这一时间机器,
15:39
ridiculous荒谬 time machine and go forward前锋?"
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并且驶向未来吗?”
15:41
Absolutely绝对. Absolutely绝对, I do.
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那当然。我肯定会那么做。
15:44
It's stuck卡住 in the present当下 right now,
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这机器现在停在当下,
15:46
but we have an amazing惊人 opportunity机会.
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但是我们遇到了非常好的机遇。
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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我们可以如愿任意设置时间机器。
15:51
We can move移动 it where we want to move移动 it,
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想去那里就去那里,
15:53
and we're going to move移动 it where we want to move移动 it.
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我们可以去到我们真正希望到达的地方。
15:55
We have to have these conversations对话 and we have to think,
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我们需要开展这样的对话,我们需要思考,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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当我们进入时间机器并且驶向未来时,
16:01
we're going to be happy快乐 we do.
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我们会为我们的选择感到高兴。
16:03
I know that we can,
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我相信我们可以,
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned关心,
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而就我的理解,
16:07
that's something the world世界 needs需求 right now.
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这就是世界现在所需要的东西。
16:10
(Applause掌声)
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谢谢大家
16:12
Thank you.
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(掌声)
16:15
Thank you.
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谢谢
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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(掌声)
Translated by Tony Yet
Reviewed by Angelia King

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.

Why you should listen

Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Livesdives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.

Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com