TEDGlobal 2012
Ivan Krastev: Can democracy exist without trust?
Ivan Krastev 沒有信任，民主還能存在嗎？
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政治理論家 Ivan Krastev 認為 50 年來 5 場偉大的革命塑造現今的政治文化。他循序漸進地訴說，從 60 年代的文化革命到現在的神經科學的最新發現，雖然帶領社會進步，卻也成為民主侵蝕信任的工具。如他所言：｢對的事，同時也是錯的。｣ 民主還能存留嗎？
Ivan Krastev - Public intellectual
From his home base in Bulgaria, Ivan Krastev thinks about democracy -- and how to reframe it. Full bio
From his home base in Bulgaria, Ivan Krastev thinks about democracy -- and how to reframe it. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm afraid I'm one of those speakers
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我很擔心我是一個
00:19
you hope you're not going to meet at TED.
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你不想在 TED 碰上的演講者
00:22
First, I don't have a mobile,
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首先，我沒有手機
00:23
so I'm on the safe side.
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所以我比較安全
00:25
Secondly, a political theorist
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其次，一個政治理論家
00:27
who's going to talk about the crisis of democracy
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即將談論關於民主危機
00:30
is probably not the most exciting topic you can think about.
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可能是你能想到最枯燥的題目
00:34
And plus, I'm not going to give you any answers.
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況且，我不打算給你答案
00:36
I'm much more trying to add to some of the questions we're talking about.
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我會盡可能地在我們談論的問題中，提出更多質疑
00:40
And one of the things that I want to question
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並且，我想質疑的問題之一
00:42
is this very popular hope these days
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是最近廣受矚目
00:45
that transparency and openness
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透過公開和透明
00:47
can restore the trust in democratic institutions.
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能夠在民主體制中重新建立信任
00:51
There is one more reason for you to be suspicious about me.
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這也給各位多一個質疑我的理由
00:55
You people, the Church of TED, are a very optimistic community.
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你們這些 TED 教派的人，是非常樂觀的團體
00:59
(Laughter)
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(笑)
01:01
Basically you believe in complexity, but not in ambiguity.
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基本上你們相信複雜性，但不愛模稜兩可的結局
01:06
As you have been told, I'm Bulgarian.
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如同你們所知，我是保加利亞人
01:09
And according to the surveys,
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根據調查
01:10
we are marked the most pessimistic people in the world.
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我們被認為是世界上最悲觀的人
01:14
(Laughter)
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(笑)
01:16
The Economist magazine recently wrote an article
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經濟學人雜誌最近發表一篇文章
01:19
covering one of the recent studies on happiness,
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報導關於幸福的研究
01:22
and the title was "The Happy, the Unhappy and the Bulgarians."
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標題是<幸福的人、不幸福的人和保加利亞人>
01:27
(Laughter)
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(笑)
01:28
So now when you know what to expect,
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現在，你們知道要期待些甚麼了
01:32
let's give you the story.
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說個故事給你們聽
01:34
And this is a rainy election day in a small country --
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發生在一個小國家的一個下雨的投票日
01:39
that can be my country, but could be also your country.
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這可能是我的國家，有可能是你的國家
01:42
And because of the rain until four o'clock in the afternoon,
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由於下雨的緣故，直到下午 4 點
01:46
nobody went to the polling stations.
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都沒人前往投票所
01:48
But then the rain stopped,
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當雨一停
01:50
people went to vote.
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人們就前往投票
01:52
And when the votes had been counted,
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當選票開出
01:56
three-fourths of the people have voted with a blank ballot.
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4 分之 3 的選票是空白的
02:03
The government and the opposition,
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執政黨和反對黨
02:05
they have been simply paralyzed.
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他們都嚇呆了
02:08
Because you know what to do about the protests.
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因為大家都知道如何對付抗議者
02:10
You know who to arrest, who to negotiate with.
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知道去逮捕誰，去和誰談判
02:12
But what to do about people who are voting with a blank ballot?
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但是如何面對投空白選票的選民？
02:18
So the government decided to have the elections once again.
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所以政府決定重選一次
02:22
And this time even a greater number,
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這一次，卻有更多的
02:24
83 percent of the people, voted with blank ballots.
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83% 的選民，投下空白票
02:30
Basically they went to the ballot boxes
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基本上，他們前往投票所
02:32
to tell that they have nobody to vote for.
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去表明沒有適當的人選
02:35
This is the opening of a beautiful novel by Jose Saramago
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這是 Jose Saramago 寫的一本出色的小說的開頭
02:41
called "Seeing."
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書名叫做《看見》
02:42
But in my view it very well captures
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但是我認為它很切確地捕捉到
02:44
part of the problem that we have with democracy in Europe these days.
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最近歐洲民主的一些問題
02:49
On one level nobody's questioning
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某程度來說沒人質疑
02:51
that democracy is the best form of government.
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民主是最好的政府形式
02:55
Democracy is the only game in town.
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民主是政治領域中唯一的規則
02:58
The problem is that many people start to believe
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問題是許多人開始相信
03:00
that it is not a game worth playing.
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民主不是一個值得遵循的規則
03:03
For the last 30 years, political scientists have observed
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過去 30 年來，政治學家觀察到
03:07
that there is a constant decline in electoral turnout,
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投票人數持續下降
03:12
and the people who are least interested to vote
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那些對於投票最冷感的民眾
03:16
are the people whom you expect are going to gain most out of voting.
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就是那群你們認為可以從投票中得利的人
03:20
I mean the unemployed, the under-privileged.
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我指的是那些失業的和沒有特權的人
03:24
And this is a major issue.
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這就是問題之所在
03:25
Because especially now with the economic crisis,
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特別在這經濟危機中
03:28
you can see that the trust in politics,
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你們能看到人們對政治的信賴
03:31
that the trust in democratic institutions,
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民主體制的信任
03:33
was really destroyed.
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已經完全被摧毀了
03:35
According to the latest survey being done by the European Commission,
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根據歐盟委員會最新的調查
03:39
89 percent of the citizens of Europe believe that there is a growing gap
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歐洲 89% 的公民相信在政策制定者和民眾的看法之間
03:44
between the opinion of the policy-makers and the opinion of the public.
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存有一道越來越寬的鴻溝
03:50
Only 18 percent of Italians and 15 percent of Greeks
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只有 18% 的義大利人和 15% 的希臘人
03:54
believe that their vote matters.
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相信他們的選票是有用的
03:57
Basically people start to understand that they can change governments,
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基本上，民眾開始了解他們能更換執政者
04:01
but they cannot change policies.
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但無法改變政策
04:04
And the question which I want to ask is the following:
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我要問的問題是：
04:06
How did it happen that we are living in societies
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發生了甚麼事了？我們所居住的社會
04:10
which are much freer than ever before --
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比以往擁有更多的自由
04:13
we have more rights, we can travel easier,
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我們有更多權力，更容易旅遊
04:15
we have access to more information --
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更有管道取得資訊
04:18
at the same time that trust in our democratic institutions
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但同時，在民主體制中的信任
04:21
basically has collapsed?
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卻已經崩潰
04:24
So basically I want to ask:
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我想問的是：
04:25
What went right and what went wrong in these 50 years
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這 50 年來，當我們討論民主時
04:30
when we talk about democracy?
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甚麼是對的？甚麼是錯的？
04:32
And I'll start with what went right.
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我將從做對了甚麼談起
04:36
And the first thing that went right was, of course,
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做對的第一件事，當然
04:39
these five revolutions which, in my view,
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在我看來，是這五場革命
04:41
very much changed the way we're living and deepened our democratic experience.
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深深改變了我們的生活方式和提升我們的民主經驗
04:46
And the first was the cultural and social revolution of 1968 and 1970s,
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首先是 1968 年和 70 年代的文化與社會革命
04:51
which put the individual at the center of politics.
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把個人推向政治中心
04:54
It was the human rights moment.
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這是人權的里程碑
04:56
Basically this was also a major outbreak, a culture of dissent,
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基本上這也是一個主要的突破，形成一種異議文化
05:00
a culture of basically non-conformism,
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一種原則上不盲從的文化
05:04
which was not known before.
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這是以往不為人知的
05:06
So I do believe that even things like that
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所以我的確相信即使事情就是如此
05:09
are very much the children of '68 --
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像是 68 年的孩子們 --
05:12
nevertheless that most of us had been even not born then.
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然而，我們大多數當時都還未出生
05:16
But after that you have the market revolution of the 1980s.
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之後，我們經歷了 80 年代的市場革命
05:19
And nevertheless that many people on the left try to hate it,
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儘管許多左派人士排斥它
05:22
the truth is that it was very much the market revolution that sent the message:
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市場革命仍然傳遞出一個訊息：
05:27
"The government does not know better."
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｢政府懂的並沒有比較多。｣
05:29
And you have more choice-driven societies.
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於是你們有更多可選擇的社會模式
05:31
And of course, you have 1989 -- the end of Communism, the end of the Cold War.
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當然，你們經歷了 1989 年，共產主義和冷戰的結束
05:38
And it was the birth of the global world.
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世界村從此誕生
05:40
And you have the Internet.
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你們有網際網路
05:42
And this is not the audience to which I'm going to preach
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我想我不需對這裡的觀眾鼓吹
05:45
to what extent the Internet empowered people.
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網路對人們的影響力
05:48
It has changed the way we are communicating
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它已經改變了我們的溝通方式
05:51
and basically we are viewing politics.
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以及觀察政治的方式
05:52
The very idea of political community totally has changed.
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政治團體的觀念已全然改觀
05:55
And I'm going to name one more revolution,
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我再提出一種革命
05:58
and this is the revolution in brain sciences,
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這是大腦科學的革命
06:00
which totally changed the way
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完全改變我們原本以為的
06:01
we understand how people are making decisions.
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人們如何做決定的方式
06:05
So this is what went right.
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以上是做對的部分
06:08
But if we're going to see what went wrong,
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但是如果我們去看做錯的部分
06:10
we're going to end up with the same five revolutions.
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也是源自於同樣的 5 場革命
06:14
Because first you have the 1960s and 1970s,
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首先，你們經歷了 1960 和 1970 年代的
06:17
cultural and social revolution,
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文化及社會革命
06:19
which in a certain way destroyed the idea of a collective purpose.
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這也完全破壞了集體目標的觀念
06:22
The very idea, all these collective nouns that we have been taught about --
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這個特有的觀念，像是我們曾經學過的群體名詞 --
06:27
nation, class, family.
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國家、階級和家庭
06:30
We start to like divorcing, if we're married at all.
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人們輕易離婚，有些根本不結婚
06:33
All this was very much under attack.
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這些觀念受到很大的攻擊
06:36
And it is so difficult to engage people in politics
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而且當民眾相信真正重要的是
06:40
when they believe that what really matters
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個人支持的立場時
06:43
is where they personally stand.
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就很難讓民眾因政治團結
06:45
And you have the market revolution of the 1980s
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80 年代的市場革命
06:49
and the huge increase of inequality in societies.
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社會同時有產生了巨大的不平等
06:55
Remember, until the 1970s,
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要記得，直到 1970 年代以前
06:57
the spread of democracy has always been accompanied
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民主的發展總是伴隨著
07:01
by the decline of inequality.
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不平等的降低
07:04
The more democratic our societies have been,
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社會越民主
07:06
the more equal they have been becoming.
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人民就越平等
07:10
Now we have the reverse tendency.
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現在的趨勢剛好相反
07:12
The spread of democracy now is very much accompanied
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民主的發展，伴隨著更多
07:15
by the increase in inequality.
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不平等的產生
07:17
And I find this very much disturbing
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我發現這讓我們很無力
07:20
when we're talking about what's going on right and wrong
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當討論對於這幾年的民主
07:24
with democracy these days.
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甚麼做對了和甚麼做錯了的時候
07:26
And if you go to 1989 --
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如果回到 1989 (冷戰結束) --
07:28
something that basically you don't expect that anybody's going to criticize --
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一個你們認為無可挑剔的事件 --
07:32
but many are going to tell you, "Listen, it was the end of the Cold War
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還是有許多人會告訴你：｢注意，冷戰結束將造成
07:36
that tore the social contract between the elites and the people in Western Europe."
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西歐的菁英份子和人民之間的社會契約被撕毀。｣
07:41
When the Soviet Union was still there,
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當蘇聯仍在時
07:43
the rich and the powerful, they needed the people,
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有錢有勢的人，需要民眾支持
07:46
because they feared them.
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因為他們害怕人民
07:48
Now the elites basically have been liberated.
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現在，這些菁英已經被解放
07:52
They're very mobile. You cannot tax them.
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他們可以到處遷移，你們課不到他們的稅
07:54
And basically they don't fear the people.
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而且他們現在也不再懼怕人民
07:56
So as a result of it, you have this very strange situation
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結果是，你們面臨這個陌生的情況
07:59
in which the elites basically got out of the control of the voters.
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這些菁英擺脫了選民的控制
08:04
So this is not by accident
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因此可意料，選民將不再有興趣去投票
08:05
that the voters are not interested to vote anymore.
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因此可意料，選民將不再有興趣去投票
08:08
And when we talk about the Internet,
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並且，當談到網際網路
08:10
yes, it's true, the Internet connected all of us,
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的確，網路聯繫所有人
08:13
but we also know that the Internet created these echo chambers and political ghettos
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我們也知道，網路造成空蕩蕩的會議室和少數政客的佔領區
08:20
in which for all your life you can stay with the political community you belong to.
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在網路上，讓你和所屬的政治團體能廝守終身
08:25
And it's becoming more and more difficult
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但是，要去了解和你立場不同的人
08:27
to understand the people who are not like you.
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會變得更困難
08:29
I know that many people here
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我知道這裡有許多人
08:31
have been splendidly speaking about the digital world and the possibility for cooperation,
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對於數位世界和合作的可能，有真知灼見
08:36
but [have you] seen what the digital world has done to American politics these days?
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但是你們可看到這些年來，數位世界對於美國政治的影響？
08:40
This is also partly a result of the Internet revolution.
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這也是一部份的網路革命
08:44
This is the other side of the things that we like.
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凡事都有一體兩面
08:47
And when you go to the brain sciences,
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再看看大腦科學
08:49
what political consultants learned from the brain scientists
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這些政治智庫從大腦科學家身上學到的是
08:53
is don't talk to me about ideas anymore,
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不要再和我討論思想
08:56
don't talk to me about policy programs.
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不要再和我討論政策方案
08:59
What really matters is basically to manipulate the emotions of the people.
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最重要的事是去操作群眾的情感
09:04
And you have this very strongly
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並且你們很強烈的感受到
09:06
to the extent that, even if you see when we talk about revolutions these days,
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某種程度上，即使你們知道當我們談論近年來的革命時
09:11
these revolutions are not named anymore around ideologies or ideas.
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這些革命不再因為意識形態和觀念被命名
09:17
Before, revolutions used to have ideological names.
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之前，革命通常以意識型態的方式被命名
09:19
They could be communist, they could be liberal,
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可能是共產黨，可能是自由派
09:21
they could be fascist or Islamic.
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可能是法西斯或伊斯蘭教派
09:23
Now the revolutions are called under the medium which is most used.
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現代的革命，習慣以傳播媒介命名
09:27
You have Facebook revolutions, Twitter revolutions.
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你們有臉書革命，推特革命
09:30
The content doesn't matter anymore, the problem is the media.
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內容不再重要，問題是哪種媒體
09:35
I'm saying this because one of my major points
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我之所以這麼說的原因是，我的要點之一是
09:37
is what went right is also what went wrong.
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那些對的事，同時也是錯的
09:42
And when we're now trying to see how we can change the situation,
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當我們現在試著要了解如何改變這個情況
09:46
when basically we're trying to see what can be done about democracy,
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當我們從根本了解，我們能為民主做些甚麼
09:49
we should keep this ambiguity in mind.
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我們應該接納模稜兩可的情況
09:51
Because probably some of the things that we love most
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因為可能有些我們所愛的
09:54
are going to be also the things that can hurt us most.
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同時也傷害我們最深
09:58
These days it's very popular to believe
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這些日子大家普遍相信
10:01
that this push for transparency,
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推動透明化
10:03
this kind of a combination between active citizens, new technologies
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這種結合積極公民、新科技
10:09
and much more transparency-friendly legislation
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和對於透明化較友善的立法
10:13
can restore trust in politics.
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可以在政治上重建信任
10:16
You believe that when you have these new technologies and people who are ready to use this,
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你們相信擁有這些新科技，和使用新科技的民眾
10:20
it can make it much more difficult for the governments to lie,
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會使政府更困難去欺瞞
10:24
it's going to be more difficult for them to steal
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也讓他們要偷雞摸狗變得更困難
10:26
and probably even going to be more difficult for them to kill.
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或許也能讓他們意圖殺戮的行動更困難
10:30
This is probably true.
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或許這是真的
10:32
But I do believe that we should be also very clear
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但我仍認為我們應該明白
10:35
that now when we put the transparency at the center of politics
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現在若是將透明化置入政治中心
10:40
where the message is, "It's transparency, stupid."
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但是那裏透露的訊息是，透明化是愚蠢的
10:44
Transparency is not about restoring trust in institutions.
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透明化並不是將信任重建在制度上
10:47
Transparency is politics' management of mistrust.
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透明化是政治上的｢不信任的處理方式｣
10:52
We are assuming that our societies are going to be based on mistrust.
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意思是我們已預設社會是建立在不信任的基礎上
10:57
And by the way, mistrust was always very important for democracy.
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同時，對於民主而言，不信任一直扮演重要的角色
10:59
This is why you have checks and balances.
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這就是為什麼要有權力制衡
11:02
This is why basically you have all this creative mistrust
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這基本上是為什麼有各式各樣的不信任
11:06
between the representatives and those whom they represent.
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存在於民意代表和其所代表的民眾之間
11:09
But when politics is only management of mistrust,
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但是當政治淪為不信任的處理方式時
11:14
then -- I'm very glad that "1984" has been mentioned --
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我很慶幸剛剛提到過｢1984｣ --
11:17
now we're going to have "1984" in reverse.
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現在我們將｢1984｣的情節顛倒過來
11:20
It's not going to be the Big Brother watching you,
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不再是｢老大哥｣隨時隨地看著你們
11:23
it's going to be we being the Big Brother
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我們自己來當｢老大哥｣
11:25
watching the political class.
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監看這些政治人物
11:27
But is this the idea of a free society?
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這是否是自由社會的概念？
11:30
For example, can you imagine
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例如，你們認為
11:32
that decent, civic, talented people are going to run for office
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這些正派的、具公民身分的、有潛力的人，還會去參選
11:38
if they really do believe
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如果他們深信
11:40
that politics is also about managing mistrust?
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政治只是用來處理不信任的方式？
11:44
Are you not afraid with all these technologies
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難道你們不懼怕這些科技
11:47
that are going to track down
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能夠挖掘出
11:49
any statement the politicians are going to make on certain issues,
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任何政治人物在特定議題說過的話
11:52
are you not afraid that this is going to be a very strong signal to politicians
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難道你們不害怕？對政治人物來說，重要的是
11:56
to repeat their positions, even the very wrong positions,
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去重複他們的立場，甚至是錯得離譜的立場
12:01
because consistency is going to be more important than common sense?
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因為堅持遠重要於常識
12:05
And the Americans who are in the room,
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在這個房間的美國人
12:06
are you not afraid that your presidents are going to govern
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難道你們不害怕？你們的總統將依照
12:09
on the basis of what they said in the primary elections?
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初選時的政見，來掌管這個國家
12:13
I find this extremely important,
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我發現這至關重要
12:15
because democracy is about people changing their views
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因為民主是民眾基於理性的爭辯和討論後
12:19
based on rational arguments and discussions.
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改變他們的觀點
12:22
And we can lose this with the very noble idea
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而且我們可能放棄這種想法
12:25
to keep people accountable
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只為了博取民眾的信賴
12:27
for showing the people that we're not going to tolerate
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僅僅作秀給民眾看，我們不會容忍
12:30
politicians the opportunism in politics.
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政客在政治上的投機主義
12:33
So for me this is extremely important.
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對我來說，這是非常重要的
12:35
And I do believe that when we're discussing politics these days,
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我確信當我們近來討論政治
12:38
probably it makes sense
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可能也順理成章地
12:41
to look also at this type of a story.
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視為這一類型的故事
12:44
But also don't forget, any unveiling is also veiling.
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也別忘了，任何的揭露，同時也是一種掩飾
12:48
[Regardless of] how transparent our governments want to be,
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[不論]我們的政府想要多麼透明
12:51
they're going to be selectively transparent.
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他們也是選擇性的透明
12:54
In a small country that could be my country,
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在一個小國，可能是我的國家
12:56
but could be also your country,
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也可能是你們的國家
12:57
they took a decision -- it is a real case story --
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他們做了決定，這是真實的事情
12:59
that all of the governmental decisions,
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所有政府的決定
13:02
discussions of the council of ministers,
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所有內閣會議的討論
13:05
were going to be published on the Internet
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在會議達成決議後的 24 小時，將會上傳到網路
13:08
24 hours after the council discussions took place.
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在會議達成決議後的 24 小時，將會上傳到網路
13:12
And the public was extremely all for it.
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而民眾也很贊同這個作法
13:14
So I had the opportunity to talk to the prime minister,
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我有機會和首相問到這件事
13:17
why he made this decision.
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為什麼會做這個決定
13:18
He said, "Listen, this is the best way
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他說：｢聽著，這是最好的方法
13:20
to keep the mouths of my ministers closed.
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能讓我的閣員閉嘴
13:25
Because it's going to be very difficult for them to dissent
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這讓他們很難提出反對意見
13:28
knowing that 24 hours after
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因為他們知道 24 小時候
13:30
this is going to be on the public space,
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這些將會公諸大眾
13:32
and this is in a certain way going to be a political crisis."
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某方面來說，這會引起政治危機。｣
13:36
So when we talk about transparency,
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所以當我們談到透明度
13:37
when we talk about openness,
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當我們談到開放
13:39
I really do believe that what we should keep in mind
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我真的深深相信，我們應該有所警覺
13:41
is that what went right is what went wrong.
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甚麼是對的，甚麼是錯的
13:45
And this is Goethe, who is neither Bulgarian nor a political scientist,
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這是歌德，他不是保加利亞人，也不是政治學家
13:49
some centuries ago he said,
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在幾個世紀前說的
13:52
"There is a big shadow where there is much light."
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｢陽光越強處，陰影越大。｣
13:55
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝大家
13:56
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ivan Krastev - Public intellectualFrom his home base in Bulgaria, Ivan Krastev thinks about democracy -- and how to reframe it.
Why you should listen
Political scientist Ivan Krastev is watching the Euro crisis closely, fascinated by what it reveals about Europe's place in history: What does it mean for the democratic model? Will a fragmented Europe return to nationalist identity politics?
In his latest work, Krastev places recent events on a continuum of five revolutions over the past decades:
+ The socio-cultural revolution of the 1960s.
+ Market revolutions of the 1980s.
+ Central Europe in 1989 (which brought socio-cultural and market revolutions together).
+ The communications revolution.
+ And finally the revolution in neurosciences, which lays bare the irrationality and emotional manipulation in popular politics.
As a result of these five great changes, we've become extremely open and connected, while on the flipside cementing a mistrust of elites. Can democracy flourish when a mistrust of elites is a permanent feature?
Krastev is the chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, in Sofia, a research and analysis NGO.
Ivan Krastev | Speaker | TED.com