TED@UPS
Julio Gil: Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere
胡李奧．吉爾: 未來科技可以讓你到處體驗城市生活的好處
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不要相信未來的生活趨勢將會圍繞著城市。數據專家胡李奧．吉爾告訴我們，城市化已經到了它循環週期的盡頭。加入了擴增實境、自動運輸，和自產能源等新的發達科技，將會使得更多的人選擇在鄉間居住或工作。跨越城市的藩籬，用超前的思維考慮一下鄉村生活的好處吧。
Julio Gil - Logistics expert
UPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban. Full bio
UPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today, more than half
of the world's population lives in cities.
of the world's population lives in cities.
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如今，世界上超過一半的
人口住在城市裡。
人口住在城市裡。
00:18
The urbanization process
started in the late 1700s
started in the late 1700s
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城市化的發展
始於 1700 年代末期，
始於 1700 年代末期，
00:21
and has been increasing since then.
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並持續增加至今。
00:24
The prediction is that by 2050,
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根據預測，到 2050 年時，
00:27
66 percent of the population
will live in cities
will live in cities
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將會有 66% 的人口住在城市裡，
00:30
and the United Nations,
the World Health Organization,
the World Health Organization,
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聯合國屬下的世界衛生組織，
00:33
the World Economic Forum, are warning us,
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和世界經濟論壇，警告我們，
00:37
if we don't plan
for the increased density,
for the increased density,
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如果我們不計劃因應
增加的人口密度，
增加的人口密度，
00:40
current problems in our cities,
like inequality, congestion, crime
like inequality, congestion, crime
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像不平等、人口擁擠、犯罪等
城市目前面臨的問題，
城市目前面臨的問題，
00:45
can only get worse.
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只會變得更糟糕。
00:46
As a result, urban planners
and city developers
and city developers
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所以，規劃和發展城市的人
00:49
are putting a lot of effort and creativity
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砸下大把功夫和創新
00:52
in designing our future,
denser, bigger cities.
denser, bigger cities.
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來設計我們未來人口更密集、
規模更大的城市。
規模更大的城市。
00:57
But I have a different opinion.
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可是我有不同的觀點。
00:59
I think urbanization is actually
reaching the end of its cycle,
reaching the end of its cycle,
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我認為城市化實際上
已經達到它循環週期的盡頭了，
已經達到它循環週期的盡頭了，
01:03
and now people are going to start
moving back to the countryside.
moving back to the countryside.
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如今人們開始住回鄉村。
01:07
And you may think,
"But what about the trend?"
"But what about the trend?"
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你或許納悶：「關於那趨勢呢？」
01:10
Well, let me tell you,
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好，讓我來告訴你，
01:12
socioeconomic trends don't last forever.
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社會經濟趨勢並不永續。
01:16
You know, 12,000 years ago
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要知道，在一萬兩千年前，
01:17
everybody was perfectly happy
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每個人都開心地
01:21
roaming the land, hunting and gathering.
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在土地上漫遊、打獵和聚居。
01:24
And then, the trend changes,
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然後趨勢變了，
01:26
and the new thing
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
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農牧業開始發展，
01:30
until it changes again.
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直到趨勢再度改變，
01:32
When we get to the industrial revolution.
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我們到來工業革命。
01:35
Actually, that is what started
the urbanization process.
the urbanization process.
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實際上，那是城市化發展的起始。
01:39
And you know what triggered it?
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你知道是什麼觸發的嗎？
01:41
Steam power, machines,
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是蒸汽動力、機械、
01:44
new chemical processes --
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新的化學加工，
01:46
in two words, technological innovation.
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總結成兩個字，就是科技創新。
01:51
And I believe technology
can also bring the end of this cycle.
can also bring the end of this cycle.
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我也相信科技也會終止這個循環。
01:55
I've been working on innovation
for most of my career.
for most of my career.
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我的大半職涯一直在創新。
01:58
I love it. I love my job.
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我愛創新，我愛我的職業，
02:00
It allows me to work with drones,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
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我的工作用到無人機、
3D 列印機，和智能眼鏡，
3D 列印機，和智能眼鏡，
02:04
and not just those you can buy in the shop
but also prototypes.
but also prototypes.
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不只是商場裡買得到的成品，
還包括樣板原型。
還包括樣板原型。
02:08
It's a lot of fun sometimes.
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有時候非常的有趣。
02:12
Now, some of these technologies
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其中的一些科技
02:13
are opening new possibilities
that will radically change
that will radically change
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正在開創新的遠景，
02:17
the way we did things before
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我們做事的方式將會在
02:18
and in a few years,
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短短幾年內從本質上產生巨變，
02:20
they may allow us
to enjoy the benefits of city life
to enjoy the benefits of city life
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使我們得以享受城市生活的好處，
02:24
from anywhere.
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不論身在何處。
02:26
Think about it.
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思考一下！
02:27
If you could live in a place
with a lower crime rate
with a lower crime rate
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如果你能住在犯罪率低、
02:31
and more space
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空間大、
02:32
and a lower cost of living
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消費低、
02:34
and less traffic,
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交通不擁擠的地方；
02:36
of course many people would want that,
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那當然是許多人的盼望，
02:38
but they feel they don't have a choice.
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但他們未必有這樣的選項，
02:41
You have to live in the city.
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只好住在城市裡。
02:45
Well, in the past,
people moved to the cities
people moved to the cities
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好，過去人們移居城市
02:47
not because they loved the city itself
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不是因為他們喜歡城市本身，
02:50
but for the things
you could have in a city,
you could have in a city,
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而是為了在城市裡能得到的東西：
02:53
more job opportunities,
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更多就業機會、
02:54
easier access to services and goods
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更容易獲得服務設施、
02:57
and a rich social life.
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以及更豐富的社交生活。
02:59
So let's dive deeper.
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讓我們進一步探討。
03:01
More jobs and career opportunities.
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城市裡有更多的就業和陞遷機會
03:05
Is that still true today,
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今天仍然是事實，
03:06
because the office people
are starting to realize
are starting to realize
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因為那些白領階級開始意識到
03:09
that working in the office
and being in the office
and being in the office
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在公司裡工作和「待」在公司裡
03:13
may not be the same thing anymore.
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不盡然是同一回事了。
03:16
According to a study
by Global Workplace Analytics,
by Global Workplace Analytics,
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根據全球就業分析的研究，
03:19
more than 80 percent of the US workforce
would like to work from home.
would like to work from home.
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超過 80% 的美國勞動者
願意在家工作。
願意在家工作。
03:24
And do you know how much it costs
for a company to even have an office?
for a company to even have an office?
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你可知道公司設立一間辦公室
得要花多少錢嗎？
得要花多少錢嗎？
03:29
11,000 dollars per employee per year.
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每個員工一年要花 11,000 美元。
03:33
If only half of those workers
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如果半數的員工
03:36
would telework
even 50 percent of the time,
even 50 percent of the time,
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有一半的時間遠距工作，
03:40
the savings in the states
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
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可為美國省下超過五百億美元，
03:44
and it could reduce greenhouse gases
by 54 million tons.
by 54 million tons.
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還可減少 5400 萬噸的
溫室氣體排放，
溫室氣體排放，
03:49
That is the equivalent
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這就相當於
03:50
of 10 million cars
off the streets for a whole year.
off the streets for a whole year.
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街道上一年少了
一千萬汽車的排放量。
一千萬汽車的排放量。
03:56
But even though most people
would want to telework,
would want to telework,
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但即使大多數人想遠距辦公，
03:59
current technology
makes the experience isolating.
makes the experience isolating.
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當前的科技讓人感到與世隔離，
04:03
It's not comfortable.
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讓人感到不舒服，
04:04
It doesn't feel like being there.
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和在辦公室裡的感覺不一樣。
04:06
But that is going to change
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但這會因融入兩種
新興的科技而改變：
新興的科技而改變：
04:09
by the convergence of two technologies:
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04:11
augmented reality and telepresence robots.
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擴增實境科技，和遠端臨場機器人。
04:15
Augmented reality already today
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如今的擴增實境科技
04:17
allows you to take your office
environment everywhere with you.
environment everywhere with you.
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能讓你把辦公室的氛圍
帶到每個地點，
帶到每個地點，
04:21
All you need is a wearable computer,
a pair of smart glasses,
a pair of smart glasses,
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只需要一台電腦和一副智能眼鏡，
04:24
and you can take your emails
and your spreadsheets
and your spreadsheets
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你就可以帶著郵件和電子圖表
04:27
with you wherever you go.
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到處走了。
04:29
And video conferences and video calls
have become very common these days,
have become very common these days,
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如今視訊會議和通話變得十分普遍，
04:33
but they still need improvement.
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但仍有改進的空間。
04:36
I mean, all those little faces
on a flat screen,
on a flat screen,
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我的意思是，那些顯示在
平面螢幕上的小小臉孔，
平面螢幕上的小小臉孔，
04:40
sometimes you don't
even know who is talking.
even know who is talking.
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有時候你根本不知道到底誰在講話。
04:42
Now, we already have something
way better than static videocalls:
way better than static videocalls:
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現在我們已有比
靜態視訊通話更好的東西：
靜態視訊通話更好的東西：
04:47
your average telepresence robot.
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遠端臨場機器人。
04:50
I call it tablet on a stick.
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我稱它為桿子上的平板電腦。
04:53
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:54
You can control, you can move around,
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你可以控制它、隨意移動它，
04:57
you can control what you're looking at.
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可以控制你的視線範圍。
04:59
It's way better, but far from perfect.
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這是改進了的產品，
但是離完美還遠得很。
但是離完美還遠得很。
05:03
You know how they say
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你們知道常言道
05:04
that most human
communication is nonverbal?
communication is nonverbal?
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多數人以無聲交流吧？
05:08
Well, the robot doesn't
give you any of that.
give you any of that.
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但機器人可不會無聲交流，
05:10
It looks like an alien.
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它看上去就像是個外星人。
05:14
But with advances in augmented reality,
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但是透過擴增實境，
05:17
it will be easy to wrap the robot
in a nice hologram
in a nice hologram
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可以很輕易地把機器人
用個好的全息投影包裝起來，
用個好的全息投影包裝起來，
05:20
that actually looks
and moves like a person.
and moves like a person.
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使它看起來像人，動起來像人，
05:24
That will do it.
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那就夠了。
05:26
Or else, forget the robot.
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或者這樣，別管機器人，
05:28
We go full VR,
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我們用全副的虛擬實境，
05:30
and everybody meets in cyberspace.
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每個人都在網路世界裡相遇。
05:33
Give it a couple of years
and that will feel so real,
and that will feel so real,
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再過幾年的時間，
就會逼真到讓你辨不出
它和現實世界有任何差別。
它和現實世界有任何差別。
05:36
you won't tell the difference.
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05:39
So what was the next reason
why people move to cities?
why people move to cities?
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大家遷徙到城市居住的
另一個原因是什麼呢？
另一個原因是什麼呢？
05:43
Access to services and goods.
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為要能夠得到更多的服務和物品，
05:45
But today you can do all that online.
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但是現在你都可以在網上解決。
05:49
According to a study made by comScore,
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根據網站數據測量公司
comScore 的一份研究，
comScore 的一份研究，
05:52
online shoppers in the US last year
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去年美國的網購者
05:54
did more than half
of their retail purchases online,
of their retail purchases online,
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在網上採購過半的零售品，
05:59
and the global market for e-commerce
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全球市場的網上貿易額
06:02
is estimated to be
at two trillion dollars.
at two trillion dollars.
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估計將達到兩兆美元。
06:06
And it's expected to reach 2.38
by the end of 2017,
by the end of 2017,
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預期在 2017 年底
可望達到 2.38 兆美元，
可望達到 2.38 兆美元，
資料來自市場研究機構
eMarketer。
eMarketer。
06:11
according to eMarketer.
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06:14
Now, from a logistics standpoint,
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從物流的立場來看，
06:17
density is good for deliveries.
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密度有利於送貨。
06:20
Supplying goods
to a shopping mall is easy.
to a shopping mall is easy.
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把貨物供應給商場很簡單，
06:23
You can send big shipments to the shop,
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把一大批的貨物寄到商店，
06:26
and people will go there, pick it up
and take it home themselves.
and take it home themselves.
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然後顧客上門提貨自己帶回家。
06:29
E-commerce means we need to ship onesies
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網路貿易代表單件商品
06:32
and have them home delivered.
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必須被直接寄到顧客的家中，
06:34
That's more expensive.
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運費貴得多了。
06:35
It's like the difference between
having a birthday party for 20 people
having a birthday party for 20 people
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就好比是邀請二十個人
來參加生日派對，
來參加生日派對，
06:39
or bringing a piece of the cake
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或是將每塊生日蛋糕
06:41
to each of your 20 friends at their place.
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分別送到二十個人的家中。
06:45
But at least in the city,
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但至少在城市裡，
06:47
they live close to each other.
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人們住得相對近，
06:48
Density helps.
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人口密度是有利的。
06:50
Now, e-commerce deliveries
in the countryside,
in the countryside,
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而網購郵寄包裹到鄉下
06:55
those take forever.
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需要很長的時間才能到貨。
06:57
The truck sometimes needs to drive miles
between one address and the next one.
between one address and the next one.
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有時候卡車得要
開長距離到下一個地址，
開長距離到下一個地址，
07:02
Those are the most expensive
deliveries of all.
deliveries of all.
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那是所有遞送中最貴的了。
07:07
But we already have a solution for that:
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但是我們已經有解決方案了：
07:09
drones.
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無人機。
07:11
A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.
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一輛車載著一隊的無人機。
07:14
The driver does some of the deliveries
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司機只需要遞送一部分，
07:16
while the drones are flying
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
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而在卡車遞送的過程中，
由無人機來回送貨。
由無人機來回送貨。
07:19
That way, the average cost
for delivery is reduced,
for delivery is reduced,
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這樣一來，減少了平均的遞送花費，
07:22
and voila:
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瞧：
07:24
affordable e-commerce services
in the countryside.
in the countryside.
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鄉村也可以有實惠的網路貿易服務。
07:28
You will see:
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你會看到：
07:30
the new homes of our teleworkers
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在遠距辦公者住家的院子裡
07:31
will probably have
a drone pod in the yard.
a drone pod in the yard.
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可能就會裝置著無人機的卡座。
07:35
So once the final mile delivery
is not a problem,
is not a problem,
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一旦最後一里路的遞送不再是問題，
07:38
you don't need to be in the city
to buy things anymore.
to buy things anymore.
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你就不需要在城市裡買東西了。
07:42
So that's two.
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那是第二個理由。
07:43
Now, what was the third reason
why people move to cities?
why people move to cities?
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人們移居到城市的
第三個原因是什麼？
第三個原因是什麼？
07:46
A rich social life.
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是豐富的社交生活。
07:48
They would need to be
in the city for that these days.
in the city for that these days.
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如今，豐富的社交生活
得要待在城市裡。
得要待在城市裡。
07:51
Because people these days,
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現在的人交友、
07:53
they make friends,
they chat, gossip and flirt
they chat, gossip and flirt
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交流、八卦和調情，
07:56
from the comfort of their sofa.
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都能窩在自家的沙發裡做，
07:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:00
And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
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身上穿著自己喜歡的睡衣。
08:02
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:03
There are over two billion
active social media users in the world.
active social media users in the world.
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現在全世界有二十億
活躍的社交媒體用戶。
活躍的社交媒體用戶。
08:08
In a way, that makes you think
like we are connected
like we are connected
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從某種方面來看，我們互相聯繫著，
08:11
no matter where we are.
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不管我們身在那裡。
08:13
But OK, not completely.
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但好吧，不盡然如此。
08:15
Sometimes you still need
some real human contact.
some real human contact.
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有時候還是需要一些
真正人與人之間的交流的。
真正人與人之間的交流的。
08:19
Ironically, the city,
with its population density,
with its population density,
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諷刺的是，雖然城市有高人口密度，
08:23
is not always the best for that.
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但卻不總是適合交友的地方。
08:26
Actually, as social groups become smaller,
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事實上，社交圈越小就越牢固。
08:29
they grow stronger.
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08:31
A recent study made in the UK
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英國國家數據庫的近期研究
08:33
by the Office for National Statistics
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08:35
showed a higher life satisfaction rating
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顯示居住在農村的人
08:38
among people living in rural areas.
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有更高的生活幸福指數。
08:42
So as people settle in the countryside,
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人們定居於鄉村，
08:45
well, they will buy local groceries,
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他們買當地的雜貨、
08:48
fresh groceries, foodstuff,
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新鮮的雜貨、食物，和維修服務。
08:50
maintenance services.
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08:52
So handymen, small workshops,
service companies will thrive.
service companies will thrive.
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使水電工、小商鋪和服務公司興旺。
08:58
Maybe some of the industrial
workers from the cities
workers from the cities
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可能有些城市工人
09:00
displaced by the automation
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被自動化取代而失了業，
09:02
will find a nice alternative job here,
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會在鄉村找到更好的
替代工作而遷居。
替代工作而遷居。
09:05
and they will move too.
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09:07
And as people move to the countryside,
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當人們移居鄉間會怎樣呢？
09:09
how is that going to be?
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09:11
Think about autonomous,
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試想獨立自主的生活：
09:14
off-the-grid houses with solar panels,
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房子裝有自給自足的太陽能板，
09:16
with wind turbines
and waste recycling utilities,
and waste recycling utilities,
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有風力發電機、
垃圾廢水回收再利用的設備，
垃圾廢水回收再利用的設備，
09:20
our new homes producing their own energy
and using it to also power the family car.
and using it to also power the family car.
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新家使用自產的電源，
用來給自家的汽車充電。
用來給自家的汽車充電。
09:26
I mean, cities have always been regarded
as being more energy-efficient,
as being more energy-efficient,
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我的意思是，城市一向
被視為更有效地使用能源，
被視為更有效地使用能源，
09:30
but let me tell you,
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但是讓我告訴你，
09:31
repopulating the countryside
can be eco too.
can be eco too.
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居民返居鄉間，也可以變得環保。
09:36
By now, you're probably thinking
of all the advantages of country living.
of all the advantages of country living.
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現在你可能想著鄉居的好處。
09:41
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:43
I did it myself.
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我自己就移居到鄉間。
09:44
Six years ago, my wife and I,
we packed our stuff,
we packed our stuff,
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六年前，妻子和我打包了家當，
09:48
we sold our little apartment in Spain,
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賣了我們在西班牙的小公寓，
09:50
and for the same money
we bought a house with a garden
we bought a house with a garden
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用那些錢買了一個有花園的房子，
09:55
and little birds that come
singing in the morning.
singing in the morning.
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每天早上都能聽見鳥在唱歌。
09:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:59
It's so nice there.
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那個環境太好了！
10:01
And we live in a small village,
not really the countryside yet.
not really the countryside yet.
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我們住的小村莊還不算太鄉下。
10:04
That is going to be my next move:
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但那是我下一步的計畫：
10:07
a refurbished farmhouse,
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整修一個農場，
10:09
not too far from a city, not too close.
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離城市不遠也不近，
10:12
And now we'll make sure
to have a good spot for drones to land.
to have a good spot for drones to land.
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確保有個無人機降落的地點。
10:15
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:16
But hey, that's me.
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不過，嘿，那是我的盤算，
10:18
It doesn't have to be you,
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未必是你的。
10:19
because it would seem
like I'm trying to convince somebody
like I'm trying to convince somebody
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因為看起來好像我在嘗試說服你們
10:22
to come join us in the country.
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跟我一起移居到鄉間生活。
10:23
I'm not.
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我可沒有。
10:25
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:26
I don't need more people to come.
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我不要更多人住進來。
10:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:30
I just think they will
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我只是認為人們會移居鄉間，
10:31
once they realize they can have
the same benefits the city has.
the same benefits the city has.
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一旦他們意識到鄉間
和城市有同樣的好處。
和城市有同樣的好處。
10:36
But if you don't like the country,
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但是如果你不喜歡鄉村，
10:37
I have good news for you, too.
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我也有好消息要告訴你。
10:39
Cities will not disappear.
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城市不會消失。
10:42
But as people move out,
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但是當人們遷出，
10:43
a lower density will help them
recover a better flow and balance.
recover a better flow and balance.
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降低的人口密度
有助於城市的管理和平衡。
有助於城市的管理和平衡。
10:49
Anyway, I guess now
you have some thinking to do.
you have some thinking to do.
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不管怎麼樣，我猜你們會思考的。
10:53
Do you still think
you need to live in the city?
you need to live in the city?
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你們仍覺得需要住在城市裡嗎？
10:56
And more importantly,
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更重要的是，
10:58
do you want to?
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你們「想要」住在城市裡嗎？
11:00
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家！
11:02
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julio Gil - Logistics expertUPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban.
Why you should listen
Julio Gil is an Industrial Engineering Manager in the Innovation and Advanced Technology Group at UPS Corporate. Gil has spent 15 years driving innovation and logistics improvements at UPS. He is always looking for the next great disruptive technology. As an engineering manager, he has pioneered new technologies for drones, 3D printing, the Internet of Things and wearables. As an inventor, he has developed four patents for drone technology and one for augmented reality applications for sorting processes. Gil holds a master's in law from the University of Alcalá de Henares in Spain.
Julio Gil | Speaker | TED.com