TED@UPS
Julio Gil: Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere
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Don't believe predictions that say the future is trending towards city living. Urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle, says logistics expert Julio Gil, and soon more people will be choosing to live (and work) in the countryside, thanks to rapid advances in augmented reality, autonomous delivery, off-the-grid energy and other technologies. Think outside city walls and consider the advantages of country living with this forward-thinking talk.
Julio Gil - Logistics expert
UPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban. Full bio
UPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today, more than half
of the world's population lives in cities.
of the world's population lives in cities.
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The urbanization process
started in the late 1700s
started in the late 1700s
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and has been increasing since then.
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The prediction is that by 2050,
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66 percent of the population
will live in cities
will live in cities
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and the United Nations,
the World Health Organization,
the World Health Organization,
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the World Economic Forum, are warning us,
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if we don't plan
for the increased density,
for the increased density,
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current problems in our cities,
like inequality, congestion, crime
like inequality, congestion, crime
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can only get worse.
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As a result, urban planners
and city developers
and city developers
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are putting a lot of effort and creativity
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in designing our future,
denser, bigger cities.
denser, bigger cities.
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But I have a different opinion.
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I think urbanization is actually
reaching the end of its cycle,
reaching the end of its cycle,
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and now people are going to start
moving back to the countryside.
moving back to the countryside.
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And you may think,
"But what about the trend?"
"But what about the trend?"
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Well, let me tell you,
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socioeconomic trends don't last forever.
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You know, 12,000 years ago
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everybody was perfectly happy
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roaming the land, hunting and gathering.
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And then, the trend changes,
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and the new thing
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
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until it changes again.
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When we get to the industrial revolution.
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Actually, that is what started
the urbanization process.
the urbanization process.
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And you know what triggered it?
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Steam power, machines,
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new chemical processes --
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in two words, technological innovation.
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And I believe technology
can also bring the end of this cycle.
can also bring the end of this cycle.
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I've been working on innovation
for most of my career.
for most of my career.
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I love it. I love my job.
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It allows me to work with drones,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
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and not just those you can buy in the shop
but also prototypes.
but also prototypes.
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It's a lot of fun sometimes.
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Now, some of these technologies
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are opening new possibilities
that will radically change
that will radically change
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the way we did things before
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and in a few years,
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they may allow us
to enjoy the benefits of city life
to enjoy the benefits of city life
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from anywhere.
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Think about it.
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If you could live in a place
with a lower crime rate
with a lower crime rate
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and more space
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and a lower cost of living
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and less traffic,
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of course many people would want that,
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but they feel they don't have a choice.
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You have to live in the city.
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Well, in the past,
people moved to the cities
people moved to the cities
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not because they loved the city itself
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but for the things
you could have in a city,
you could have in a city,
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more job opportunities,
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easier access to services and goods
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and a rich social life.
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So let's dive deeper.
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More jobs and career opportunities.
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Is that still true today,
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because the office people
are starting to realize
are starting to realize
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that working in the office
and being in the office
and being in the office
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may not be the same thing anymore.
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According to a study
by Global Workplace Analytics,
by Global Workplace Analytics,
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more than 80 percent of the US workforce
would like to work from home.
would like to work from home.
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And do you know how much it costs
for a company to even have an office?
for a company to even have an office?
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11,000 dollars per employee per year.
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If only half of those workers
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would telework
even 50 percent of the time,
even 50 percent of the time,
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the savings in the states
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
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and it could reduce greenhouse gases
by 54 million tons.
by 54 million tons.
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That is the equivalent
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of 10 million cars
off the streets for a whole year.
off the streets for a whole year.
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But even though most people
would want to telework,
would want to telework,
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current technology
makes the experience isolating.
makes the experience isolating.
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It's not comfortable.
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It doesn't feel like being there.
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But that is going to change
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by the convergence of two technologies:
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augmented reality and telepresence robots.
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Augmented reality already today
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allows you to take your office
environment everywhere with you.
environment everywhere with you.
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All you need is a wearable computer,
a pair of smart glasses,
a pair of smart glasses,
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and you can take your emails
and your spreadsheets
and your spreadsheets
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with you wherever you go.
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And video conferences and video calls
have become very common these days,
have become very common these days,
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but they still need improvement.
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I mean, all those little faces
on a flat screen,
on a flat screen,
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sometimes you don't
even know who is talking.
even know who is talking.
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Now, we already have something
way better than static videocalls:
way better than static videocalls:
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your average telepresence robot.
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I call it tablet on a stick.
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(Laughter)
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You can control, you can move around,
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you can control what you're looking at.
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It's way better, but far from perfect.
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You know how they say
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that most human
communication is nonverbal?
communication is nonverbal?
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Well, the robot doesn't
give you any of that.
give you any of that.
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It looks like an alien.
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But with advances in augmented reality,
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it will be easy to wrap the robot
in a nice hologram
in a nice hologram
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that actually looks
and moves like a person.
and moves like a person.
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That will do it.
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Or else, forget the robot.
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We go full VR,
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and everybody meets in cyberspace.
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Give it a couple of years
and that will feel so real,
and that will feel so real,
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you won't tell the difference.
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So what was the next reason
why people move to cities?
why people move to cities?
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Access to services and goods.
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But today you can do all that online.
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According to a study made by comScore,
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online shoppers in the US last year
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did more than half
of their retail purchases online,
of their retail purchases online,
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and the global market for e-commerce
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is estimated to be
at two trillion dollars.
at two trillion dollars.
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And it's expected to reach 2.38
by the end of 2017,
by the end of 2017,
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according to eMarketer.
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Now, from a logistics standpoint,
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density is good for deliveries.
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Supplying goods
to a shopping mall is easy.
to a shopping mall is easy.
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You can send big shipments to the shop,
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and people will go there, pick it up
and take it home themselves.
and take it home themselves.
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E-commerce means we need to ship onesies
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and have them home delivered.
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That's more expensive.
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It's like the difference between
having a birthday party for 20 people
having a birthday party for 20 people
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or bringing a piece of the cake
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to each of your 20 friends at their place.
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But at least in the city,
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they live close to each other.
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Density helps.
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Now, e-commerce deliveries
in the countryside,
in the countryside,
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those take forever.
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The truck sometimes needs to drive miles
between one address and the next one.
between one address and the next one.
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Those are the most expensive
deliveries of all.
deliveries of all.
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But we already have a solution for that:
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drones.
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A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.
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The driver does some of the deliveries
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while the drones are flying
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
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That way, the average cost
for delivery is reduced,
for delivery is reduced,
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and voila:
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affordable e-commerce services
in the countryside.
in the countryside.
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You will see:
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the new homes of our teleworkers
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will probably have
a drone pod in the yard.
a drone pod in the yard.
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So once the final mile delivery
is not a problem,
is not a problem,
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you don't need to be in the city
to buy things anymore.
to buy things anymore.
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So that's two.
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Now, what was the third reason
why people move to cities?
why people move to cities?
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A rich social life.
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They would need to be
in the city for that these days.
in the city for that these days.
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Because people these days,
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they make friends,
they chat, gossip and flirt
they chat, gossip and flirt
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from the comfort of their sofa.
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(Laughter)
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And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
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(Laughter)
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There are over two billion
active social media users in the world.
active social media users in the world.
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In a way, that makes you think
like we are connected
like we are connected
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no matter where we are.
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But OK, not completely.
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Sometimes you still need
some real human contact.
some real human contact.
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Ironically, the city,
with its population density,
with its population density,
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is not always the best for that.
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Actually, as social groups become smaller,
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they grow stronger.
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A recent study made in the UK
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by the Office for National Statistics
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showed a higher life satisfaction rating
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among people living in rural areas.
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So as people settle in the countryside,
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well, they will buy local groceries,
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fresh groceries, foodstuff,
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maintenance services.
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So handymen, small workshops,
service companies will thrive.
service companies will thrive.
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Maybe some of the industrial
workers from the cities
workers from the cities
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displaced by the automation
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will find a nice alternative job here,
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and they will move too.
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And as people move to the countryside,
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how is that going to be?
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Think about autonomous,
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off-the-grid houses with solar panels,
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with wind turbines
and waste recycling utilities,
and waste recycling utilities,
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our new homes producing their own energy
and using it to also power the family car.
and using it to also power the family car.
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I mean, cities have always been regarded
as being more energy-efficient,
as being more energy-efficient,
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but let me tell you,
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repopulating the countryside
can be eco too.
can be eco too.
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By now, you're probably thinking
of all the advantages of country living.
of all the advantages of country living.
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(Laughter)
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I did it myself.
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Six years ago, my wife and I,
we packed our stuff,
we packed our stuff,
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we sold our little apartment in Spain,
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and for the same money
we bought a house with a garden
we bought a house with a garden
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and little birds that come
singing in the morning.
singing in the morning.
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(Laughter)
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It's so nice there.
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And we live in a small village,
not really the countryside yet.
not really the countryside yet.
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That is going to be my next move:
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a refurbished farmhouse,
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not too far from a city, not too close.
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And now we'll make sure
to have a good spot for drones to land.
to have a good spot for drones to land.
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(Laughter)
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But hey, that's me.
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It doesn't have to be you,
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because it would seem
like I'm trying to convince somebody
like I'm trying to convince somebody
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to come join us in the country.
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I'm not.
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(Laughter)
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I don't need more people to come.
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(Laughter)
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I just think they will
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once they realize they can have
the same benefits the city has.
the same benefits the city has.
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But if you don't like the country,
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I have good news for you, too.
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Cities will not disappear.
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But as people move out,
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a lower density will help them
recover a better flow and balance.
recover a better flow and balance.
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Anyway, I guess now
you have some thinking to do.
you have some thinking to do.
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Do you still think
you need to live in the city?
you need to live in the city?
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And more importantly,
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do you want to?
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julio Gil - Logistics expertUPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban.
Why you should listen
Julio Gil is an Industrial Engineering Manager in the Innovation and Advanced Technology Group at UPS Corporate. Gil has spent 15 years driving innovation and logistics improvements at UPS. He is always looking for the next great disruptive technology. As an engineering manager, he has pioneered new technologies for drones, 3D printing, the Internet of Things and wearables. As an inventor, he has developed four patents for drone technology and one for augmented reality applications for sorting processes. Gil holds a master's in law from the University of Alcalá de Henares in Spain.
Julio Gil | Speaker | TED.com