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TED2010

Nicholas Christakis: The hidden influence of social networks

Nikolas Kristakis: Skriveni uticaj društvenih mreža

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Svi smo povezani u mnogobrojne društvene mreže prijatelja, porodice, kolega sa posla i mnoge druge. Nikolas Kristakis (Nicholas Christakis) otkriva kako se razne osobine - od sreće do gojaznosti - mogu širiti od osobe do osobe, pokazujući kako vaše mesto u mreži može uticati na vaš život, na načine koje ne možete ni zamisliti.

- Physician, social scientist
Nicholas Christakis explores how the large-scale, face-to-face social networks in which we are embedded affect our lives, and what we can do to take advantage of this fact. Full bio

For me, this story begins about 15 years ago,
Za mene, ova priča počinje pre nekih 15 godina,
00:16
when I was a hospice doctor at the University of Chicago.
kada sam bio doktor za smrtno obolele na čikaškom univerzitetu.
00:19
And I was taking care of people who were dying and their families
Brinuo sam o ljudima koji su umirali i o njihovim porodicama,
00:22
in the South Side of Chicago.
u čikaškom kraju South Side.
00:25
And I was observing what happened to people and their families
Posmatrao sam šta se dešava ljudima i njihovim porodicama
00:27
over the course of their terminal illness.
tokom njihove smrtne bolesti.
00:30
And in my lab, I was studying the widower effect,
U svojoj laboratoriji sam proučavao efekat udovca,
00:33
which is a very old idea in the social sciences,
što je veoma stara ideja u društvenim naukama,
00:35
going back 150 years,
koja potiče od pre 150 godina,
00:37
known as "dying of a broken heart."
poznata i kao "umiranje od slomljenog srca".
00:39
So, when I die, my wife's risk of death can double,
Dakle, kada ja umrem, rizik da moja žena umre se duplira,
00:41
for instance, in the first year.
na primer, u prvoj godini.
00:44
And I had gone to take care of one particular patient,
Brinuo sam o jednom pacijentu,
00:46
a woman who was dying of dementia.
o ženi koja je umirala od starosti.
00:49
And in this case, unlike this couple,
U ovom slučaju, za razliku od ovog para,
00:51
she was being cared for
o njoj je brinula
00:53
by her daughter.
njena ćerka.
00:55
And the daughter was exhausted from caring for her mother.
Ona je bila iscrpljena od vođenja računa o njoj.
00:57
And the daughter's husband,
A muž te ćerke,
01:00
he also was sick
bio je takođe bolestan
01:02
from his wife's exhaustion.
od iscrpljenosti svoje žene.
01:05
And I was driving home one day,
Jednog dana sam se vozio kući
01:07
and I get a phone call from the husband's friend,
i pozvao me je prijatelj tog muža,
01:09
calling me because he was depressed
zvao me je jer je bio deprimiran
01:12
about what was happening to his friend.
zbog toga što se dešava njegovom prijatelju.
01:14
So here I get this call from this random guy
Znači zove me neki nasumični lik
01:16
that's having an experience
koji prolazi kroz iskustvo
01:18
that's being influenced by people
na koje utiču ljudi
01:20
at some social distance.
koji su na nekoj društvenoj udaljenosti.
01:22
And so I suddenly realized two very simple things:
Odjednom sam shvatio dve veoma jednostavne stvari.
01:24
First, the widowhood effect
Prvo, efekat udovištva
01:27
was not restricted to husbands and wives.
nije ograničen samo na muževe i žene.
01:29
And second, it was not restricted to pairs of people.
I drugo, nije ograničen samo na parove ljudi.
01:32
And I started to see the world
Počeo sam da posmatram svet
01:35
in a whole new way,
na potpuno drugačiji način,
01:37
like pairs of people connected to each other.
kao parove ljudi koji su međusobno povezani.
01:39
And then I realized that these individuals
Onda sam shvatio da ove individue
01:42
would be connected into foursomes with other pairs of people nearby.
mogu biti povezane u četvorke sa drugim parovima u okolini.
01:44
And then, in fact, these people
I da su, ustvari, ovi ljudi
01:47
were embedded in other sorts of relationships:
povezani u druge vrste veza,
01:49
marriage and spousal
bračne i supružničke,
01:51
and friendship and other sorts of ties.
prijateljske i svakakve druge.
01:53
And that, in fact, these connections were vast
I te veze su ogromne,
01:55
and that we were all embedded in this
i svi smo mi utisnuti u tu
01:58
broad set of connections with each other.
široku mrežu veza jedni sa drugima.
02:00
So I started to see the world in a completely new way
Tako sam počeo da posmatram svet na potpuno nov način,
02:03
and I became obsessed with this.
postao sam opsednut time.
02:06
I became obsessed with how it might be
Postao sam opsednut time kako je moguće
02:08
that we're embedded in these social networks,
da smo uvezani u te društvene mreže
02:10
and how they affect our lives.
i kako one utiču na naše živote.
02:12
So, social networks are these intricate things of beauty,
Društvene mreže su tako isprepletane i divne
02:14
and they're so elaborate and so complex
i tako su složene i detaljne
02:17
and so ubiquitous, in fact,
i sveprisutne ustvari,
02:19
that one has to ask what purpose they serve.
da moramo da se zapitamo koja je njihova svrha.
02:21
Why are we embedded in social networks?
Zašto smo utisnuti u društvene mreže?
02:24
I mean, how do they form? How do they operate?
Mislim, kako se one formiraju? Kako rade?
02:26
And how do they effect us?
I kako utiču na nas?
02:28
So my first topic with respect to this,
I tako je moja prva tema u vezi sa ovim
02:30
was not death, but obesity.
bila gojaznost, a ne smrt.
02:33
It had become trendy
Odjednom je postalo moderno
02:36
to speak about the "obesity epidemic."
da se priča o epidemiji gojaznosti.
02:38
And, along with my collaborator, James Fowler,
I moj saradnik Džejms Fauler i ja
02:40
we began to wonder whether obesity really was epidemic
smo počeli da razmišljamo da li je gojaznost stvarno epidemijska
02:43
and could it spread from person to person
i da li može da se prenosi sa osobe na osobu
02:46
like the four people I discussed earlier.
kao u slučaju onih četvoro ljudi o kojima sam govorio.
02:48
So this is a slide of some of our initial results.
Ovo je slajd nekih od naših prvih rezultata.
02:51
It's 2,200 people in the year 2000.
To je 2200 ljudi 2000. godine.
02:54
Every dot is a person. We make the dot size
Svaka tačka je jedna osoba. Veličina tačke
02:57
proportional to people's body size;
je proporcionalna veličini nečijeg tela.
02:59
so bigger dots are bigger people.
Znači, veće tačke su veći ljudi.
03:01
In addition, if your body size,
Dalje, ako vaša veličina,
03:04
if your BMI, your body mass index, is above 30 --
tj ako je vaš ITM, indeks telesne mase preko 30,
03:06
if you're clinically obese --
ako ste klinički gojazni,
03:08
we also colored the dots yellow.
tačka je obojena žuto.
03:10
So, if you look at this image, right away you might be able to see
Ako pogledate ovu sliku sada, možete videti
03:12
that there are clusters of obese and
da postoje grupe gojaznih
03:14
non-obese people in the image.
i negojaznih ljudi na slici.
03:16
But the visual complexity is still very high.
Ali vizuelna složenost je i dalje visoka.
03:18
It's not obvious exactly what's going on.
Nije baš očigledno šta se dešava.
03:21
In addition, some questions are immediately raised:
Povrh toga, odmah se postavljaju neka pitanja.
03:24
How much clustering is there?
Koliko grupisanja ima?
03:26
Is there more clustering than would be due to chance alone?
Da li ima više grupisanja nego što bi bilo pukim slučajem?
03:28
How big are the clusters? How far do they reach?
Koliko su velike grupe? Koliko daleko sežu?
03:31
And, most importantly,
I najvažnije,
03:33
what causes the clusters?
šta uzrokuje ta grupisanja?
03:35
So we did some mathematics to study the size of these clusters.
Onda smo primenili matematiku kako bismo izračunali veličinu tih grupa.
03:37
This here shows, on the Y-axis,
Ovde se vidi, na Y osi,
03:40
the increase in the probability that a person is obese
povećanje verovatnoće da je osoba gojazna,
03:42
given that a social contact of theirs is obese
ukoliko je neko iz njenog okruženja gojazan.
03:45
and, on the X-axis, the degrees of separation between the two people.
A na X osi je stepen udaljenosti između dve osobe.
03:47
On the far left, you see the purple line.
Krajnje levo vidite ljubičastu liniju.
03:50
It says that, if your friends are obese,
Ona govori da, ako su vam prijatelji gojazni,
03:52
your risk of obesity is 45 percent higher.
vaš rizik od gojaznosti je 45% viši.
03:54
And the next bar over, the [red] line,
Sledeći stubac, narandžasta linija,
03:57
says if your friend's friends are obese,
govori da, ako su prijatelji vaših prijatelja gojazni,
03:59
your risk of obesity is 25 percent higher.
vaš rizik je 25% viši.
04:01
And then the next line over says
Sledeća linija kaže da,
04:03
if your friend's friend's friend, someone you probably don't even know, is obese,
ako su prijatelji prijatelja vaših prijatelja, neko koga verovatno i ne poznajete, gojazni,
04:05
your risk of obesity is 10 percent higher.
vaš rizik je 10% veći.
04:08
And it's only when you get to your friend's friend's friend's friends
I tek kada dođete do prijatelja od prijatelja od prijatelja vaših prijatelja
04:11
that there's no longer a relationship
više ne postoji veza
04:14
between that person's body size and your own body size.
između građe te osobe i vaše građe.
04:16
Well, what might be causing this clustering?
Dakle, šta uzrokuje ova grupisanja?
04:20
There are at least three possibilities:
Ima najmanje tri mogućnosti.
04:23
One possibility is that, as I gain weight,
Jedna mogućnost je ta da, ako se ja ugojim,
04:25
it causes you to gain weight.
to čini da se i vi ugojite,
04:27
A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person.
kao neka indukcija, prenošenje sa osobe na osobu.
04:29
Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily,
Sledeća, veoma očigledna mogućnost, je homofilija,
04:32
or, birds of a feather flock together;
iliti slično se sličnom raduje.
04:34
here, I form my tie to you
U ovom slučaju, ja se vezujem za tebe
04:36
because you and I share a similar body size.
jer delimo sličnu telesnu građu.
04:38
And the last possibility is what is known as confounding,
I poslednja mogućnost je poznata kao zbunjivanje,
04:41
because it confounds our ability to figure out what's going on.
jer nas zbunjuje u pokušaju da shvatimo šta se dešava.
04:43
And here, the idea is not that my weight gain
Ovde nije ideja da moje dobijanje na težini
04:46
is causing your weight gain,
uzrokuje vaše,
04:48
nor that I preferentially form a tie with you
niti da se ja vezujem za vas
04:50
because you and I share the same body size,
jer imamo sličnu građu,
04:52
but rather that we share a common exposure
nego je ideja da delimo sličnu izloženost
04:54
to something, like a health club
nečemu, kao npr zdravstvenom klubu,
04:56
that makes us both lose weight at the same time.
gde oboje u isto vreme gubimo na težini.
04:59
When we studied these data, we found evidence for all of these things,
I kada smo proučavali ove podatke pronašli smo dokaze za sve stvari
05:02
including for induction.
uključujući indukciju.
05:05
And we found that if your friend becomes obese,
Pronašli smo da, ako vaš prijatelj postane gojazan,
05:07
it increases your risk of obesity by about 57 percent
to kod vas povećava rizik od gojaznosti za 57%
05:09
in the same given time period.
u istom vremenskom periodu.
05:12
There can be many mechanisms for this effect:
Postoji mnogo mehanizama u osnovi ovoga.
05:14
One possibility is that your friends say to you something like --
Jedna od mogućnosti je da vam prijatelji kažu nešto kao -
05:17
you know, they adopt a behavior that spreads to you --
znate, usvoje ponašanje koje se prenese na vas,
05:19
like, they say, "Let's go have muffins and beer,"
naprimer kažu, "Hajdemo na kolače i pivo",
05:22
which is a terrible combination. (Laughter)
što je užasna kombinacija,
05:25
But you adopt that combination,
ali vi usvojite tu kombinaciju
05:28
and then you start gaining weight like them.
i onda počnete da se gojite kao i oni.
05:30
Another more subtle possibility
Jedna suptilnija mogućnost je da
05:33
is that they start gaining weight, and it changes your ideas
oni počnu da se goje i to menja vaše ideje
05:35
of what an acceptable body size is.
o tome šta je prihvatljiva težina.
05:38
Here, what's spreading from person to person
Ovde je ono što se prenosti od osobe do osobe
05:40
is not a behavior, but rather a norm:
ustvari norma, a ne ponašanje.
05:42
An idea is spreading.
Ideja se širi.
05:44
Now, headline writers
Pisci naslova
05:46
had a field day with our studies.
su imali priliku da vide naše studije.
05:48
I think the headline in The New York Times was,
Mislim da je naslov u New York Times-u bio
05:50
"Are you packing it on?
"Da li se gojite?
05:52
Blame your fat friends." (Laughter)
Okrivite svoje debele prijatelje."
05:54
What was interesting to us is that the European headline writers
Bilo nam je interesantno da su evropski pisci naslova
05:57
had a different take: They said,
imali potpuno drugačije shvatanje, rekli su
05:59
"Are your friends gaining weight? Perhaps you are to blame."
"Da li se vaši prijatelji goje? Možda ste vi krivi."
06:01
(Laughter)
(smeh)
06:04
And we thought this was a very interesting comment on America,
Mislili smo da je ovo veoma interesantan komentar Amerike,
06:09
and a kind of self-serving,
koji nam ide na ruku,
06:12
"not my responsibility" kind of phenomenon.
kao, "nije-moja-odgovornost" fenomen.
06:14
Now, I want to be very clear: We do not think our work
Sada želim da budem veoma jasan, mi ne mislimo da naš rad
06:16
should or could justify prejudice
može ili da bi trebalo da opravda predrasude
06:18
against people of one or another body size at all.
o ljudima ove ili one težine.
06:20
Our next questions was:
Naše sledeće pitanje bilo je:
06:24
Could we actually visualize this spread?
Da li možemo da vizualizujemo ovo širenje?
06:26
Was weight gain in one person actually spreading
Da li se dobijanje na težini kod jedne osobe zaista prenosi
06:29
to weight gain in another person?
kao dobijanje na težini kod druge osobe?
06:31
And this was complicated because
Ovo je bilo komplikovano jer
06:33
we needed to take into account the fact that the network structure,
smo morali da uračunamo da se struktura mreže,
06:35
the architecture of the ties, was changing across time.
arhitektura povezanosti, menja tokom vremena.
06:38
In addition, because obesity is not a unicentric epidemic,
Povrh toga, pošto gojaznost nije unicentrična epidemija,
06:41
there's not a Patient Zero of the obesity epidemic --
ne postoji "nulti pacijent" epidemije gojaznosti -
06:44
if we find that guy, there was a spread of obesity out from him --
da nađemo tog tipa od kog je počela da se širi gojaznost.
06:47
it's a multicentric epidemic.
To je multicentrična epidemija.
06:50
Lots of people are doing things at the same time.
Mnogo ljudi radi stvari u isto vreme.
06:52
And I'm about to show you a 30 second video animation
Pokazaću vam video animaciju od 30 sekundi
06:54
that took me and James five years of our lives to do.
za koju je Džejmsu i meni bilo potrebno 5 godina da je napravimo.
06:57
So, again, every dot is a person.
Opet, svaka tačka je osoba.
07:00
Every tie between them is a relationship.
Svaka veza među njima predstavlja odnos.
07:02
We're going to put this into motion now,
Sada ćemo to pokrenuti,
07:04
taking daily cuts through the network for about 30 years.
krećući se dan po dan kroz mrežu tokom 30 godina.
07:06
The dot sizes are going to grow,
Veličine tačaka sada rastu.
07:09
you're going to see a sea of yellow take over.
Videćete kako more žute preovladava.
07:11
You're going to see people be born and die --
Videćete kako se ljudi rađaju i umiru;
07:14
dots will appear and disappear --
tačke će se pojaviti i nestajati.
07:16
ties will form and break, marriages and divorces,
Veze će se stvarati i prekidati. Brakovi i razvodi,
07:18
friendings and defriendings.
prijateljstva i raskidi prijateljstava,
07:21
A lot of complexity, a lot is happening
mnogo složenosti, mnogo se dešava
07:23
just in this 30-year period
samo u ovom periodu od 30 godina,
07:25
that includes the obesity epidemic.
što uključuje i epidemiju gojaznosti.
07:27
And, by the end, you're going to see clusters
I pri kraju ćete videti grupe
07:29
of obese and non-obese individuals
gojaznih i negojaznih pojedinaca
07:31
within the network.
u okviru mreže.
07:33
Now, when looked at this,
Sad, kada sam pogledao ovo,
07:35
it changed the way I see things,
to je promenilo način na koji gledam na stvari
07:38
because this thing, this network
jer ova stvar, ova mreža,
07:41
that's changing across time,
koja se menja tokom vremena,
07:43
it has a memory, it moves,
ima memoriju, kreće se,
07:45
things flow within it,
stvari teku u njoj,
07:48
it has a kind of consistency --
ima neku vrstu doslednosti;
07:50
people can die, but it doesn't die;
ljudi mogu umreti, ali ona ne umire;
07:52
it still persists --
ona opstaje.
07:54
and it has a kind of resilience
Poseduje neku otpornost
07:56
that allows it to persist across time.
koja joj dozvoljava da opstane u vremenu.
07:58
And so, I came to see these kinds of social networks
I tako sam počeo da posmatram ove znake društvene mreže
08:00
as living things,
kao žive stvari,
08:03
as living things that we could put under a kind of microscope
žive stvari koje možemo staviti ispod nekog mikroskopa
08:05
to study and analyze and understand.
i proučavati i analizirati i razumeti.
08:08
And we used a variety of techniques to do this.
U tu svrhu koristimo različite tehnike.
08:11
And we started exploring all kinds of other phenomena.
Počeli smo da istražujemo svakakve fenomene.
08:13
We looked at smoking and drinking behavior,
Posmatrali smo pušenje i pijenje,
08:16
and voting behavior,
glasanje,
08:18
and divorce -- which can spread --
razvod, koji se može širiti
08:20
and altruism.
i altruizam.
08:22
And, eventually, we became interested in emotions.
I na kraju smo se zainteresovali za emocije.
08:24
Now, when we have emotions,
Sad, kada imamo osećanja,
08:28
we show them.
mi ih pokazujemo.
08:30
Why do we show our emotions?
Zašto pokazujemo svoja osećanja?
08:32
I mean, there would be an advantage to experiencing
Mislim, postojala bi prednost u doživljavanju
08:34
our emotions inside, you know, anger or happiness.
naših emocija iznutra, znate, besa ili sreće,
08:36
But we don't just experience them, we show them.
ali mi ne samo da ih doživljavamo, mi ih pokazujemo.
08:39
And not only do we show them, but others can read them.
I ne samo da ih pokazujemo, nego i drugi mogu da ih pročitaju.
08:41
And, not only can they read them, but they copy them.
I ne samo da mogu da ih pročitaju, oni ih kopiraju.
08:44
There's emotional contagion
U ljudskim populacijama
08:46
that takes place in human populations.
dolazi do emotivne zaraze.
08:48
And so this function of emotions
Ova funkcija emocija
08:51
suggests that, in addition to any other purpose they serve,
nam sugeriše da, pored drugih funkcija koju imaju,
08:53
they're a kind of primitive form of communication.
one su neka vrsta primitivnog načina komuniciranja.
08:55
And that, in fact, if we really want to understand human emotions,
I ustvari, ako zaista želimo da razumemo ljudska osećanja,
08:58
we need to think about them in this way.
trebalo bi da ih posmatramo na ovaj način.
09:01
Now, we're accustomed to thinking about emotions in this way,
Sad, mi smo navikli da o emocijama razmišljamo na ovaj način
09:03
in simple, sort of, brief periods of time.
u jednostavnim, kratkim vremenskim periodima.
09:06
So, for example,
Na primer,
09:09
I was giving this talk recently in New York City,
držao sam jedno predavanje u Njujorku nedavno,
09:11
and I said, "You know when you're on the subway
i rekao sam, "Znate ono, kada ste u metrou
09:13
and the other person across the subway car
i osoba na drugom kraju vagona
09:15
smiles at you,
vam se nasmeši
09:17
and you just instinctively smile back?"
a vi joj instinktivno uzvratite osmeh."
09:19
And they looked at me and said, "We don't do that in New York City." (Laughter)
Oni su me pogledali i rekli, "Mi u Njujorku to ne radimo."
09:21
And I said, "Everywhere else in the world,
A ja sam rekao, "Na svim ostalim mestima u svetu
09:24
that's normal human behavior."
to je normalno ponašanje."
09:26
And so there's a very instinctive way
Način na koji kratko prenosimo emocije
09:28
in which we briefly transmit emotions to each other.
među sobom veoma je instinktivan.
09:30
And, in fact, emotional contagion can be broader still.
Zapravo, emotivna zaraza može biti još šira,
09:33
Like we could have punctuated expressions of anger,
možemo imati naglašene izlive besa,
09:36
as in riots.
kao u pobunama.
09:39
The question that we wanted to ask was:
Pitanje koje smo hteli da postavimo bilo je:
09:41
Could emotion spread,
Da li emocije mogu da se šire kroz vreme
09:43
in a more sustained way than riots, across time
na stabilniji način nego što je to u pobunama,
09:45
and involve large numbers of people,
i da uključuju veliki broj ljudi,
09:48
not just this pair of individuals smiling at each other in the subway car?
ne samo parove ljudi koji se osmehuju jedni drugima u metrou?
09:50
Maybe there's a kind of below the surface, quiet riot
Možda postoji neka pobuna ispod površine,
09:53
that animates us all the time.
koja nas pokreće svo vreme.
09:56
Maybe there are emotional stampedes
Možda postoje stampeda emocija
09:58
that ripple through social networks.
koja talasaju naše društvene mreže.
10:00
Maybe, in fact, emotions have a collective existence,
Možda ustvari, emocije imaju kolektivnu egzistenciju,
10:02
not just an individual existence.
ne samo individualnu.
10:05
And this is one of the first images we made to study this phenomenon.
Ovo je jedna od prvih slika koju smo napravili za proučavanje ovog fenomena.
10:07
Again, a social network,
Opet, to je socijalna mreža,
10:10
but now we color the people yellow if they're happy
ali sada smo u žuto obojili ljude koji su srećni
10:12
and blue if they're sad and green in between.
a u plavo ako su tužni, a zeleno ako su između.
10:15
And if you look at this image, you can right away see
Ako pogledate ovu sliku odmah primećujete
10:18
clusters of happy and unhappy people,
grupe srećnih i nesrećnih ljudi
10:20
again, spreading to three degrees of separation.
na tri stepena odvojenosti.
10:22
And you might form the intuition
Možete intuitivno zaključiti
10:24
that the unhappy people
da nesrećni ljudi
10:26
occupy a different structural location within the network.
zauzimaju drugačiju strukturnu lokaciju u okviru mreže.
10:28
There's a middle and an edge to this network,
Postoji sredina i ivica ove mreže,
10:31
and the unhappy people seem to be
a nesrećni se izgleda
10:33
located at the edges.
nalaze na ivicama.
10:35
So to invoke another metaphor,
Da uključimo još jednu metaforu,
10:37
if you imagine social networks as a kind of
ako zamislite da je društvena mreža neka vrsta
10:39
vast fabric of humanity --
ogromne tkanine čovečanstva -
10:41
I'm connected to you and you to her, on out endlessly into the distance --
ja sam povezan sa vama, vi sa njom, i tako u nedogled i u daljinu -
10:43
this fabric is actually like
ova tkanina je ustvari kao
10:46
an old-fashioned American quilt,
staromodni američki jorgan,
10:48
and it has patches on it: happy and unhappy patches.
koji ima zakrpe po sebi, srećne i nesrećne zakrpe.
10:50
And whether you become happy or not
Da li ćete biti srećni ili ne,
10:53
depends in part on whether you occupy a happy patch.
zavisi donekle i od toga da li se nalazite na srećnoj zakrpi.
10:55
(Laughter)
(smeh)
10:58
So, this work with emotions,
Ovaj rad sa emocijama,
11:00
which are so fundamental,
koje su toliko bitne,
11:03
then got us to thinking about: Maybe
potakao nas je na razmišljanje da
11:05
the fundamental causes of human social networks
su možda osnovni uzroci ljudskih društvenih mreža
11:07
are somehow encoded in our genes.
na neki način kodirani u našim genima.
11:09
Because human social networks, whenever they are mapped,
Jer ljudske društvene mreže, kad god da se prave,
11:11
always kind of look like this:
uvek izgledaju ovako,
11:14
the picture of the network.
slika mreže,
11:16
But they never look like this.
a nikada ne izgledaju ovako.
11:18
Why do they not look like this?
Zašto ne izgledaju ovako?
11:20
Why don't we form human social networks
Zašto ne formiramo veze
11:22
that look like a regular lattice?
koje izgledaju kao pravilne rešetke?
11:24
Well, the striking patterns of human social networks,
Pa, iznenađujući oblici ljudskih društvenih mreža,
11:26
their ubiquity and their apparent purpose
njihova sveprisutnost i očigledna svrha,
11:29
beg questions about whether we evolved to have
pozivaju da se zapitamo da li smo evoluirali da uopšte
11:32
human social networks in the first place,
imamo društvene mreže
11:34
and whether we evolved to form networks
i da li smo evoluirali da formiramo mreže
11:36
with a particular structure.
koje imaju naročitu strukturu.
11:38
And notice first of all -- so, to understand this, though,
Pre svega primetite... Zapravo, da bismo ovo razumeli,
11:40
we need to dissect network structure a little bit first --
moramo za početak malo da iseckamo strukturu mreže.
11:42
and notice that every person in this network
Primetite da svaka osoba u ovoj mreži
11:45
has exactly the same structural location as every other person.
ima potpuno jednaku strukturnu poziciju kao svaka druga osoba.
11:47
But that's not the case with real networks.
Ali to nije slučaj sa pravim mrežama.
11:50
So, for example, here is a real network of college students
Na primer, ovde je prava mreža studenata
11:53
at an elite northeastern university.
jednog elitnog severoistočnog univerziteta.
11:55
And now I'm highlighting a few dots.
Obeležavam nekoliko tačaka.
11:58
If you look here at the dots,
Ako pogledate tačke,
12:00
compare node B in the upper left
uporedite čvor B, gore levo,
12:02
to node D in the far right;
sa čvorom D krajnje desno.
12:04
B has four friends coming out from him
B ima četvoro prijatelja koji polaze od njega.
12:06
and D has six friends coming out from him.
A D ima šestoro prijatelja koji polaze od njega.
12:08
And so, those two individuals have different numbers of friends.
Znači, te dve osobe imaju različit broj prijatelja -
12:11
That's very obvious, we all know that.
to je vrlo očigledno, svi to znamo.
12:14
But certain other aspects
Ali neki drugi aspekti
12:16
of social network structure are not so obvious.
strukture društvene mreže nisu tako očigledni.
12:18
Compare node B in the upper left to node A in the lower left.
Uporedite čvor B gore levo, sa čvorom A dole levo.
12:20
Now, those people both have four friends,
Oboje imaju četvoro prijatelja,
12:23
but A's friends all know each other,
ali prijatelji od A se svi međusobno poznaju,
12:26
and B's friends do not.
a prijatelji od B ne.
12:28
So the friend of a friend of A's
Znači prijatelj od prijatelja od A
12:30
is, back again, a friend of A's,
je opet prijatelj od A,
12:32
whereas the friend of a friend of B's is not a friend of B's,
dok prijatelj od prijatelja od B nije prijatelj od B,
12:34
but is farther away in the network.
on je dalje u mreži.
12:36
This is known as transitivity in networks.
Ovo je poznato kao prelaznost u mrežama.
12:38
And, finally, compare nodes C and D:
I na kraju, uporedite čvorove C i D.
12:41
C and D both have six friends.
C i D oboje imaju po 6 prijatelja.
12:43
If you talk to them, and you said, "What is your social life like?"
Ako biste pričali s njima i pitali, "Kakav je vaš društveni život?"
12:46
they would say, "I've got six friends.
oni bi rekli, "Imam šest prijatelja,
12:49
That's my social experience."
to je moje društveno iskustvo."
12:51
But now we, with a bird's eye view looking at this network,
Ali mi, pogledom na ovu mrežu iz ptičije perspektive,
12:53
can see that they occupy very different social worlds.
možemo da vidimo da oni zauzimaju različite društvene svetove,
12:56
And I can cultivate that intuition in you by just asking you:
i mogu da pokrenem tu intuiciju u vama pitajući vas samo:
12:59
Who would you rather be
ko biste radije bili,
13:01
if a deadly germ was spreading through the network?
da se smrtni virus širi mrežom?
13:03
Would you rather be C or D?
Da li biste radije bili C ili D?
13:05
You'd rather be D, on the edge of the network.
Bili biste D, na ivici mreže.
13:08
And now who would you rather be
A ko biste radije bili,
13:10
if a juicy piece of gossip -- not about you --
da se sočni trač, koji nije o vama,
13:12
was spreading through the network? (Laughter)
širi mrežom?
13:15
Now, you would rather be C.
Sada biste radije bili C.
13:17
So different structural locations
Znači različita mesta u strukturi
13:19
have different implications for your life.
imaju drugačije implikacije u našem životu.
13:21
And, in fact, when we did some experiments looking at this,
Ustvari, kada smo radili neke eksperimente u vezi sa ovim,
13:23
what we found is that 46 percent of the variation
pronašli smo da se 46% varijacije
13:26
in how many friends you have
u broju prijatelja koje imate
13:29
is explained by your genes.
objašnjava vašim genima.
13:31
And this is not surprising. We know that some people are born shy
Ovo nije iznenađenje. Znamo da se neki ljudi rađaju stidljivi
13:33
and some are born gregarious. That's obvious.
a neki društveni. To je očigledno.
13:36
But we also found some non-obvious things.
Ali takođe smo pronašli i neke ne-očigledne stvari.
13:39
For instance, 47 percent in the variation
Na primer, 47% varijacije
13:41
in whether your friends know each other
u činjenici da li se vaši prijatelji međusobno poznaju
13:44
is attributable to your genes.
može se pripisati vašim genima.
13:46
Whether your friends know each other
Da li se vaši prijatelji međusobno poznaju
13:48
has not just to do with their genes, but with yours.
nema veze samo sa njihovim genima, nego sa vašim.
13:50
And we think the reason for this is that some people
Mislimo da je razlog tome to što neki ljudi
13:53
like to introduce their friends to each other -- you know who you are --
vole da predstavljaju svoje prijatelje jedne drugima, da znate ko ste,
13:55
and others of you keep them apart and don't introduce your friends to each other.
a drugi ih drže odvojene i ne upoznaju jedne sa drugima.
13:58
And so some people knit together the networks around them,
Tako neki ljudi prave mreže oko sebe,
14:01
creating a kind of dense web of ties
stvaraju guste mreže povezanosti
14:04
in which they're comfortably embedded.
u kojima su udobno ugnježdeni.
14:06
And finally, we even found that
I na kraju, pronašli smo da
14:08
30 percent of the variation
se 30% variranja
14:10
in whether or not people are in the middle or on the edge of the network
u činjenici da li se ljudi nalaze u sredini ili na ivici mreže
14:12
can also be attributed to their genes.
može takođe pripisati genima.
14:15
So whether you find yourself in the middle or on the edge
Dakle, da li se nalazite u sredini ili na ivici,
14:17
is also partially heritable.
takođe je delom nasledno.
14:19
Now, what is the point of this?
Sada, koja je poenta ovoga?
14:22
How does this help us understand?
Kako nam to pomaže u razumevanju?
14:25
How does this help us
Kako nam to pomaže da
14:27
figure out some of the problems that are affecting us these days?
razumemo neke od problema koji nas pogađaju ovih dana?
14:29
Well, the argument I'd like to make is that networks have value.
Ja želim da naglasim tvrdnju da mreže imaju svoju vrednost.
14:33
They are a kind of social capital.
One su na neki način društveni kapital.
14:36
New properties emerge
Nova svojstva se javljaju
14:39
because of our embeddedness in social networks,
usled toga što smo uklopljeni u društvene mreže,
14:41
and these properties inhere
ta svojstva su tu,
14:43
in the structure of the networks,
u strukturi mreža,
14:46
not just in the individuals within them.
ne samo u pojedincima u okviru mreža.
14:48
So think about these two common objects.
Razmislite o ova dva obična predmeta.
14:50
They're both made of carbon,
Oba su sačinjena od ugljenika,
14:52
and yet one of them has carbon atoms in it
ali kod jednog su atomi ugljenika
14:54
that are arranged in one particular way -- on the left --
poređani na jedan određeni način, levo,
14:57
and you get graphite, which is soft and dark.
i dobijate grafit koji je mekan i taman.
15:00
But if you take the same carbon atoms
Ali ako uzmete iste atome ugljenika
15:03
and interconnect them a different way,
i povežete ih na drugačiji način,
15:05
you get diamond, which is clear and hard.
dobijate dijamant, koji je sjajan i tvrd.
15:07
And those properties of softness and hardness and darkness and clearness
Ta svojstva mekoće i tvrdoće, zatamnjenosti i sjaja
15:10
do not reside in the carbon atoms;
nisu svojstva ugljenikovih atoma.
15:13
they reside in the interconnections between the carbon atoms,
Ona se nalaze u međusobnim povezanostima atoma ugljenika,
15:15
or at least arise because of the
ili se javljaju zbog
15:18
interconnections between the carbon atoms.
međusobne povezanosti ugljenikovih atoma.
15:20
So, similarly, the pattern of connections among people
Na sličan način, šema veza među ljudima
15:22
confers upon the groups of people
gradi se od grupa ljudi
15:25
different properties.
različitih svojstava.
15:28
It is the ties between people
Veze među ljudima su te
15:30
that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts.
koje čine celinu većom od sume svojih delova.
15:32
And so it is not just what's happening to these people --
Znači, nije samo to što se dešava tim ljudima,
15:35
whether they're losing weight or gaining weight, or becoming rich or becoming poor,
bilo da gube ili dobijaju na težini, bogate se ili postaju siromašni,
15:38
or becoming happy or not becoming happy -- that affects us;
ili srećni ili nesrećni, ono što utiče na nas.
15:41
it's also the actual architecture
Utiče i konkretna arhitektura
15:44
of the ties around us.
veza oko nas.
15:46
Our experience of the world
Naš doživljaj sveta
15:48
depends on the actual structure
zavisi od strukture
15:50
of the networks in which we're residing
mreža u kojima se nalazimo
15:52
and on all the kinds of things that ripple and flow
i od vrste stvari koje uzburkavaju i teku
15:54
through the network.
kroz mrežu.
15:57
Now, the reason, I think, that this is the case
Mislim da je razlog tome
16:00
is that human beings assemble themselves
to što se ljudska bića okupljaju
16:03
and form a kind of superorganism.
i formiraju neku vrstu superorganizma.
16:05
Now, a superorganism is a collection of individuals
Superorganizam je nekakva kolekcija individua
16:09
which show or evince behaviors or phenomena
koje pokazuju ili ispoljavaju ponašanja ili fenomene
16:12
that are not reducible to the study of individuals
koji ne mogu da se svedu na proučavanje pojedinaca
16:15
and that must be understood by reference to,
i moraju se razumeti u odnosu
16:18
and by studying, the collective.
i u proučavanju kolektivnog,
16:20
Like, for example, a hive of bees
kao na primer roj pčela
16:22
that's finding a new nesting site,
koji pronalazi novo mesto za nastanjivanje,
16:25
or a flock of birds that's evading a predator,
ili jato ptica koje izbegava grabljivca
16:28
or a flock of birds that's able to pool its wisdom
ili jato ptica koje može da isredsredi svoju mudrost
16:30
and navigate and find a tiny speck
u navigaciji i pronađe sitnu mrlju koja je
16:33
of an island in the middle of the Pacific,
ustvari ostrvo usred Pacifika,
16:35
or a pack of wolves that's able
ili čopor vukova koji je sposoban
16:37
to bring down larger prey.
da savlada veći plen.
16:39
Superorganisms have properties
Superorganizmi imaju svojstva
16:42
that cannot be understood just by studying the individuals.
koja se ne mogu razumeti samo proučavanjem pojedinaca.
16:44
I think understanding social networks
Mislim da razumevanje socijalnih mreža
16:47
and how they form and operate
i načina na koji nastaju i funkcionišu,
16:49
can help us understand not just health and emotions
može da nam pomogne da razumemo, ne samo zdravlje i emocije,
16:51
but all kinds of other phenomena --
nego svakakve fenomene,
16:54
like crime, and warfare,
kao što su zločin i rat
16:56
and economic phenomena like bank runs
i ekonomske fenomene kao što su banke
16:58
and market crashes
i krahovi tržišta
17:00
and the adoption of innovation
i usvajanje inovacija
17:02
and the spread of product adoption.
i širenje prihvatanja nekog proizvoda.
17:04
Now, look at this.
Sada, vidite.
17:06
I think we form social networks
Mislim da formiramo društvene mreže
17:09
because the benefits of a connected life
jer su dobiti povezanog života
17:11
outweigh the costs.
veće od uloga.
17:13
If I was always violent towards you
Da sam ja uvek nasilan prema vama,
17:16
or gave you misinformation
ili vam dajem pogrešne informacije,
17:18
or made you sad or infected you with deadly germs,
ili vas činim tužnim, ili vam prenosim smrtonosne bacile,
17:20
you would cut the ties to me,
vi biste prekinuli sve veze sa mnom
17:23
and the network would disintegrate.
i mreža bi se raspala.
17:25
So the spread of good and valuable things
Dakle prenošenje dobrih i vrednih stvari
17:27
is required to sustain and nourish social networks.
je neophodno za održavanje i negovanje socijalnih mreža.
17:30
Similarly, social networks are required
Na sličan način, socijalne mreže su neophodne
17:34
for the spread of good and valuable things,
za širenje dobrih i vrednih stvari
17:36
like love and kindness
kao što su ljubav i dobrota
17:39
and happiness and altruism
i sreća i altruizam
17:41
and ideas.
i ideje.
17:43
I think, in fact, that if we realized
Zapravo mislim da, kad bismo shvatili
17:45
how valuable social networks are,
koliko su društvene mreže vredne,
17:47
we'd spend a lot more time nourishing them and sustaining them,
provodili bismo mnogo više vremena negujući i održavajući ih,
17:49
because I think social networks
jer mislim da su društvene mreže
17:52
are fundamentally related to goodness.
u osnovi povezane sa dobrotom,
17:54
And what I think the world needs now
i mislim da je danas svetu potrebno
17:57
is more connections.
više veza.
17:59
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
18:01
(Applause)
(aplauz)
18:03
Translated by Ivana Korom
Reviewed by Sandra Gojic

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About the speaker:

Nicholas Christakis - Physician, social scientist
Nicholas Christakis explores how the large-scale, face-to-face social networks in which we are embedded affect our lives, and what we can do to take advantage of this fact.

Why you should listen

People aren't merely social animals in the usual sense, for we don't just live in groups. We live in networks -- and we have done so ever since we emerged from the African savannah. Via intricately branching paths tracing out cascading family connections, friendship ties, and work relationships, we are interconnected to hundreds or even thousands of specific people, most of whom we do not know. We affect them and they affect us.

Nicholas Christakis' work examines the biological, psychological, sociological, and mathematical rules that govern how we form these social networks, and the rules that govern how they shape our lives. His work shows how phenomena as diverse as obesity, smoking, emotions, ideas, germs, and altruism can spread through our social ties, and how genes can partially underlie our creation of social ties to begin with. His work also sheds light on how we might take advantage of an understanding of social networks to make the world a better place.

At Yale, Christakis is a Professor of Social and Natural Science, and he directs a diverse research group in the field of biosocial science, primarily investigating social networks. His popular undergraduate course "Health of the Public" is available as a podcast. His book, Connected, co-authored with James H. Fowler, appeared in 2009, and has been translated into 20 languages. In 2009, he was named by Time magazine to its annual list of the 100 most influential people in the world, and also, in 2009 and 2010, by Foreign Policy magazine to its list of 100 top global thinkers

More profile about the speaker
Nicholas Christakis | Speaker | TED.com