ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sendhil Mullainathan - Behavioral economist
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination?

Why you should listen

To study big questions such as "What are the measurable effects of corruption?"" Sendhil Mullainathan and his collaborators look at the day-to-day decisions made by real people, running deep-data studies on groups around the world to tease out patterns. Awarded a MacArthur ""genius"" grant in 2002, he has produced and collaborated on a string of research papers that make for a must-read CV -- including a fascinating, if dispiriting, study of the corruption involved in getting a driver's license in India.

Lately he and his team have been studying women who sell fruit and vegetables on the streets in developing countries. They're usually in debt to a moneylender in the market, who takes about half their profits each day as interest. Some of the women have figured a simple way to get out of debt and keep all their profits. But most of the women make a choice every day that keeps them in debt. How would these businesswomen behave, he wondered, if the slate was wiped clean? So he got a grant, paid off their debt, and waits to see what happens next."

More profile about the speaker
Sendhil Mullainathan | Speaker | TED.com
TEDIndia 2009

Sendhil Mullainathan: Solving social problems with a nudge

森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹: 社会问题的最后一英里

Filmed:
581,215 views

麦克阿瑟奖获得者森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹用行为经济学的眼光剖析了一个棘手的社会问题:有办法解决却还是无法解决。我们知道怎样减少痢疾患儿的死亡率,怎样预防因糖尿病引起的失明,怎样实现太阳能电池技术...但却没有有效实现。为什么?
- Behavioral economist
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination? Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
As a researcher研究员, every一切 once一旦 in a while
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作为一个搞研究的人
00:18
you encounter遭遇 something
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时不时会遇到一些
00:20
a little disconcerting令人不安.
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令人不安的问题
00:22
And this is something that changes变化 your understanding理解 of the world世界 around you,
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这些问题可以改变你对周围世界的认识
00:25
and teaches you that you're very wrong错误
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让你认识到 之前所深信的看法
00:27
about something that you really believed相信 firmly牢牢 in.
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其实存在很大的谬误
00:31
And these are unfortunate不幸的 moments瞬间,
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这些都是不幸的时刻
00:34
because you go to sleep睡觉 that night
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因为你在那晚入睡时
00:36
dumber than when you woke醒来 up.
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要比在早上起床时来得无知
00:39
So, that's really the goal目标 of my talk,
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这也正是我本次演讲的目标
00:41
is to A, communicate通信 that moment时刻 to you
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第一 相互交流各自的体会
00:43
and B, have you leave离开 this session会议
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第二 让你们在离开会场时
00:45
a little dumber than when you entered进入.
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比你们进来时更加无知一点
00:47
So, I hope希望 I can really accomplish完成 that.
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希望我能达到这两点目标
00:50
So, this incident事件 that I'm going to describe描述
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我要讲的这个问题
00:53
really began开始 with some diarrhea腹泻.
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要从痢疾开始
00:56
Now, we've我们已经 known已知 for a long time the cause原因 of diarrhea腹泻.
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我们对痢疾的病因已经很熟悉
00:59
That's why there's a glass玻璃 of water up there.
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所以我放了一杯水的照片在那
01:02
For us, it's a problem问题, the people in this room房间.
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对在座的各位来说 这是个麻烦
01:04
For babies婴儿, it's deadly致命.
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对婴儿来说 这是致命的
01:07
They lack缺乏 nutrients营养成分, and diarrhea腹泻 dehydrates脱水 them.
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他们缺乏营养 痢疾会导致脱水
01:11
And so, as a result结果, there is a lot of death死亡,
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因此 会有很多人夭折
01:13
a lot of death死亡.
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很多人夭折
01:16
In India印度 in 1960,
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在1960年的印度
01:18
there was a 24 percent百分 child儿童 mortality死亡 rate,
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新生儿的死亡率达到24%
01:20
lots of people didn't make it. This is incredibly令人难以置信 unfortunate不幸的.
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很多还能没能挺过去 实在是很不幸
01:24
One of the big reasons原因 this happened发生 was
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很重要的一个原因
01:26
because of diarrhea腹泻.
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就是痢疾
01:28
Now, there was a big effort功夫 to solve解决 this problem问题,
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目前 人类已对痢疾的疗法付出了很大努力
01:31
and there was actually其实 a big solution.
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也出现了很有效的疗法
01:35
This solution has been called, by some,
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这种疗法被某些人称为
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"potentially可能 the most important重要 medical
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本世纪最重要的
01:39
advance提前 this century世纪."
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医学突破
01:42
Now, the solution turned转身 out to be simple简单.
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疗法其实很简单
01:45
And what it was was oral口服 rehydration补液 salts.
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就是口服补液盐
01:49
Many许多 of you have probably大概 used this.
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很多人用过这种方法
01:51
It's brilliant辉煌. It's a way to get sodium
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这是个天才般的想法
01:53
and glucose葡萄糖 together一起 so that when you add it to water
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可以让钠和葡萄糖混合在一起 掺上水之后
01:56
the child儿童 is able能够 to absorb吸收 it even during situations情况 of diarrhea腹泻.
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婴儿即使在身患痢疾时也能吸收养分
01:59
Remarkable卓越 impact碰撞 on mortality死亡.
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有效的减少了死亡率
02:03
Massive海量 solution to the problem问题.
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很好的治疗了痢疾
02:05
Flash forward前锋: 1960, 24 percent百分 child儿童 mortality死亡
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婴儿死亡率从1960年的24%
02:08
has dropped下降 to 6.5 percent百分 today今天.
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下降到如今的6.5%
02:10
Still a big number, but a big drop下降.
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比例仍较高 但已经降了很多
02:13
It looks容貌 like the technological技术性 problem问题 is solved解决了.
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看上去技术上的问题已解决
02:16
But if you look, even today今天
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但直到如今
02:18
there are about 400,000 diarrhea-related腹泻有关 deaths死亡
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光是在印度 每年就有40万
02:20
in India印度 alone单独.
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痢疾相关的死亡
02:22
What's going on here?
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这又是怎么回事?
02:24
Well the easy简单 answer回答 is, we just haven't没有 gotten得到 those salts
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你可以说 我们没有给他们提供
02:27
to those people.
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口服补液盐
02:29
That's actually其实 not true真正.
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事实上不是这样
02:31
If you look in areas where these salts are completely全然 available可得到,
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在这些地方 口服补液盐完全可以买到
02:34
the price价钱 is low or zero, these deaths死亡 still continue继续 abated减弱.
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价格很低 甚至是免费的 但死亡还在发生
02:37
Maybe there's a biological生物 answer回答.
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也许有生理上的原因
02:39
Maybe these are the deaths死亡 that simple简单 rehydration补液
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也许单靠再水合的方法
02:41
alone单独 doesn't solve解决. That's not true真正 either.
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无法挽救这些生命 但这也不是事实
02:44
Many许多 of these deaths死亡 were completely全然 preventable预防的,
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很多死亡是完全可以避免的
02:49
and this what I want to think of as the disconcerting令人不安 thing,
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这就是令我感到不安的问题
02:52
what I want to call "the last mile英里" problem问题.
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我称之为"最后一英里"问题
02:54
See, we spent花费 a lot of energy能源, in many许多 domains --
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我们在各个领域消耗了很多的资源
02:58
technological技术性, scientific科学, hard work,
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利用技术 科学手段
03:00
creativity创造力, human人的 ingenuity创造力 --
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通过人类的汗水 灵巧 创造力
03:02
to crack裂纹 important重要 social社会 problems问题 with technology技术 solutions解决方案.
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用技术手段攻克了许多重大社会问题
03:06
That's been the discoveries发现 of the last 2,000 years年份,
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2000年以来都是如此
03:08
that's mankind人类 moving移动 forward前锋.
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人类因此不断向前进
03:10
But in this case案件 we cracked破解 it,
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尽管攻克了很多难关
03:13
but a big part部分 of the problem问题 still remains遗迹.
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但还有很多问题依然存在
03:15
Nine hundred and ninety-nine99 miles英里 went well,
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前面的999英里都走得很好
03:17
the last mile's英里的 proving证明 incredibly令人难以置信 stubborn倔强.
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最好一英里显得异常艰难
03:20
Now, that's for oral口服 rehydration补液 therapy治疗.
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口服补液疗法就是如此
03:24
Maybe this is something unique独特 about diarrhea腹泻.
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也许痢疾只是一个特例
03:26
Well, it turns out -- and this is where things get really disconcerting令人不安 --
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但事实上 痢疾不是特例
03:28
it's not unique独特 to diarrhea腹泻.
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这样问题就变得令人不安了
03:30
It's not even unique独特 to poor较差的 people in India印度.
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甚至印度的穷人也不是特例
03:32
Here's这里的 an example from a variety品种 of contexts上下文.
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这是从很多文献中找到的一个例子
03:35
I've put a bunch of examples例子 up here.
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我在这列举了很多例子
03:37
I'll start开始 with insulin胰岛素, diabetes糖尿病
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我从美国治疗糖尿病的
03:40
medication药物治疗 in the U.S.
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胰岛素说起
03:42
OK, the American美国 population人口.
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对美国人来说
03:44
On Medicaid医疗补助 -- if you're fairly相当 poor较差的 you get Medicaid医疗补助,
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如果你很穷或者你有医疗保险
03:46
or if you have health健康 insurance保险 -- insulin胰岛素 is pretty漂亮 straightforward直截了当.
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就能得到医疗补助 胰岛素很好用
03:48
You get it, either in pill form形成 or you get it as an injection注射;
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可通过药片或注射使用
03:52
you have to take it every一切 day to maintain保持 your blood血液 sugar levels水平.
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每天都要服用 以保持血糖水平
03:54
Massive海量 technological技术性 advance提前:
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这是巨大的技术进步
03:56
took an incredibly令人难以置信 deadly致命 disease疾病, made制作 it solvable可解.
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让致命的疾病变得可治愈
03:58
Adherence附着 rates利率. How many许多 people are taking服用 their insulin胰岛素 every一切 day?
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看看相关的数据 每天有多少人服用胰岛素?
04:01
About on average平均, a typical典型 person is taking服用 it 75 percent百分 of the time.
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平均每人服用的概率是75%
04:05
As a result结果, 25,000 people a year go blind,
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结果就是 每年有2万5千人失明
04:10
hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 lose失去 limbs四肢, every一切 year,
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数十万人截肢
04:12
for something that's solvable可解.
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而这个病是可治愈的
04:14
Here I have a bunch of other examples例子,
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我还能举很多其他的例子
04:16
all suffer遭受 from the last mile英里 problem问题.
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他们都存在最后一英里的问题
04:18
It's not just medicine医学.
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不仅仅在医学上
04:20
Here's这里的 another另一个 example from technology技术:
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这是另一个来自于技术革新的例子
04:22
agriculture农业. We think
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农业 我们认为
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there's a food餐饮 problem问题, so we create创建 new seeds种子.
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存在食物问题 所以发明了新型的种子
04:26
We think there's an income收入 problem问题, so we create创建
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我们认为存在产量的问题 因此创造了
04:28
new ways方法 of farming农业 that increase增加 income收入.
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增加产量的新方法
04:31
Well, look at some old ways方法, some ways方法 that we'd星期三 already已经 cracked破解.
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我们来看看那些已经实现的老方法
04:34
Intercropping间作. Intercropping间作 really increases增加 income收入.
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间作 间作确实能增加产量
04:36
Sometimes有时 in rice白饭 we found发现 incredible难以置信 increases增加 in yield产量
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有时 通过混合不同种类的水稻
04:39
when you mix混合 different不同 varieties品种 of rice白饭 side by side.
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可以得到惊人的常量
04:41
Some people are doing that,
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有些人这么做了
04:43
many许多 are not. What's going on?
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有些人没有 为什么会这样?
04:45
This is the last mile英里.
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这就是最后一英里
04:47
The last mile英里 is, everywhere到处, problematic问题.
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最后一英里的问题 无处不在 难以攻克
04:49
Alright好的, what's the problem问题?
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问题出在哪?
04:51
The problem问题 is this little three-pound3磅重 machine
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问题就处在这个3磅重的小机器上
04:54
that's behind背后 your eyes眼睛 and between之间 your ears耳朵.
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它位于你的眼后 两耳之间
04:58
This machine is really strange奇怪,
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这台机器很奇怪
05:00
and one of the consequences后果 is that people are weird奇怪的.
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结果是 人类也很奇怪
05:04
They do lots of inconsistent不符 things.
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做了很多自相矛盾的事
05:08
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
05:10
They do lots of inconsistent不符 things.
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人做了很多自相矛盾的事
05:13
And the inconsistencies不一致性
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这些自相矛盾
05:15
create创建, fundamentally从根本上, this last mile英里 problem问题.
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从根本上导致了最后一英里问题
05:18
See, when we were dealing交易 with our biology生物学, bacteria,
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当我们面对生物 细菌
05:21
the genes基因, the things inside here, the blood血液?
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基因 内脏 血液这些的时候
05:24
That's complex复杂, but it's manageable管理.
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尽管很复杂 但却是可控的
05:27
When we're dealing交易 with people like this?
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当我们面对人的问题的时候
05:30
The mind心神 is more complex复杂.
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就变得更为复杂了
05:32
That's not as manageable管理, and that's what we're struggling奋斗的 with.
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事情就不好控制了 这就是我们在挣扎的问题
05:34
Let me go back to diarrhea腹泻 for a second第二.
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我们再回到痢疾的问题上
05:37
Here's这里的 a question that was asked in the National国民 Sample样品 Survey调查,
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这是全国抽样调查组织
05:40
which哪一个 is a survey调查 asked of many许多 Indian印度人 women妇女:
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向很多印度女性问的一个问题
05:42
"Your child儿童 has diarrhea腹泻.
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"如果小孩得了痢疾
05:44
Should you increase增加, maintain保持 or decrease减少 the number of fluids流体?"
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应该增加 保持还是减少液体摄入?"
05:47
Just so you don't embarrass阻碍 yourselves你自己, I'll give you the right answer回答:
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为了不让你们难堪 我直接告诉你们答案
05:50
It's increase增加.
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是增加
05:54
Now, diarrhea's腹泻的 interesting有趣
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痢疾很有意思
05:55
because it's been around for thousands数千 of years年份,
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它已经存在了几千年
05:57
ever since以来 humankind人类 really
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自从人类聚居
06:00
lived生活 side by side enough足够 to have really polluted污染 water.
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开始产生废水以来就有了
06:03
One Roman罗马 strategy战略 that was very interesting有趣
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罗马人有个对付痢疾的办法很有意思
06:05
was that -- and it really gave them a comparative比较 advantage优点 --
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这让他们取得了比较优势
06:07
they made制作 sure their soldiers士兵 didn't drink
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他们连轻微浑浊的水
06:10
even remotely远程 muddied搅浑 waters水域.
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都不让士兵们饮用
06:12
Because if some of your troops军队 get diarrhea腹泻 they're not that effective有效
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因为如果有士兵得了立即
06:15
on the battlefield战场.
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就会削弱战斗力
06:17
So, if you think of Roman罗马 comparative比较 advantage优点 part部分 of it was the breast乳房 shields盾牌,
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大家以为罗马军队的优势在于护甲
06:19
the breastplates胸甲, but part部分 of it was drinking the right water.
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但其实正确饮水也是优势之一
06:23
So, here are these women妇女. They've他们已经 seen看到 their parents父母
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所以这些妇女们见过父母
06:25
have struggled挣扎 with diarrhea腹泻, they've他们已经 struggled挣扎 with diarrhea腹泻,
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为痢疾所困扰 自己也患过痢疾
06:27
they've他们已经 seen看到 lots of deaths死亡. How do they answer回答 this question?
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还见过很多死亡病例 她们会如何回答呢?
06:30
In India印度, 35 to 50 percent百分 say "Reduce减少."
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在印度 35%到50%的人回答 "减少"
06:34
Think about what that means手段 for a second第二.
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想一下这意味着什么
06:36
Thirty-five三十五 to 50 percent百分 of women妇女
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35%到50%的妇女
06:38
forget忘记 oral口服 rehydration补液 therapy治疗,
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忽略了口服补液疗法
06:40
they are increasing增加 --
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她们在增加...
06:42
they are actually其实 making制造 their child儿童
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她们这么做其实是在
06:45
more likely容易 to die through通过 their actions行动.
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增加孩子的死亡率
06:48
How is that possible可能?
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怎么会这样呢?
06:50
Well, one possibility可能性 -- I think that's how most people respond响应 to this --
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一种可能是 我想大部分人会这样回答
06:53
is to say, "That's just stupid."
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"真愚蠢"
06:57
I don't think that's stupid.
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我觉得这不是愚蠢
06:59
I think there is something very profoundly深深 right in what these women妇女 are doing.
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我认为这些妇女在某种程度上做的是对的
07:02
And that is, you don't put water
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也就是 不把水倒在
07:04
into a leaky泄漏 bucket.
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漏的水桶里
07:06
So, think of the mental心理 model模型 that goes behind背后 reducing减少 the intake录取.
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这个思维模型就是减少输入
07:10
Just doesn't make sense.
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只是听上去不太合理
07:12
Now, the model模型 is intuitively直观地 right.
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这个模型本来是正确的
07:15
It just doesn't happen发生 to be right about the world世界.
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但是应用到实际当中就发生了错误
07:19
But it makes品牌 a whole整个 lot of sense at some deep level水平.
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但是从深层次上来讲 是有道理的
07:22
And that, to me, is the fundamental基本的 challenge挑战
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这对我来说 就是那个最基本的
07:25
of the last mile英里.
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最后一英里的挑战
07:30
This first challenge挑战 is what I refer参考 to as the persuasion劝说 challenge挑战.
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第一个挑战我称之为 说服
07:33
Convincing使人信服 people to do something --
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劝说别人去做某件事
07:35
take oral口服 rehydration补液 therapy治疗, intercrop间作, whatever随你 it might威力 be --
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接受口服补液疗法 间作 诸如此类的
07:37
is not an act法案 of information信息:
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不是说是去提供给人信息
07:40
"Let's give them the data数据,
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"我们给他们罗列数据吧
07:42
and when they have data数据 they'll他们会 do the right thing."
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他们看到数据 就会做正确的事"
07:44
It's more complex复杂 than that.
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实际远比这复杂的多
07:46
And if you want to understand理解 how it's more complex复杂
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为了让你们理解为什么会显得更复杂
07:48
let me start开始 with something kind of interesting有趣.
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我们先来做一个有意思的测验
07:52
I'm going to give you a little math数学 problem问题,
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我会给你们一道简单的数学题
07:54
and I want you to just yell叫喊 out the answer回答 as fast快速 as possible可能.
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需要你们尽可能快的给出答案
07:57
A bat蝙蝠 and a ball together一起 cost成本 $1.10.
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一个球拍和一个球总计1.1美元
07:59
The bat蝙蝠 costs成本 a dollar美元 more than the ball.
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球拍比球多花1美元
08:02
How much does the ball cost成本? Quick.
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那么一个球要花多少钱? 要快
08:05
So, somebody out there says, "Five."
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那边有人说5美分
08:07
A lot of you said, "Ten."
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不少人说10美分
08:09
Let's think about 10 for a second第二.
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先来考虑下10这个答案
08:12
If the ball costs成本 10, the bat蝙蝠 costs成本...
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如果球是10美分 球拍要花...
08:16
this is easy简单, $1.10.
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很简单 1.1美元
08:18
Yeah. So, together一起 they would cost成本 $1.20.
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所以总共要花1.2美元
08:21
So, here you all are, ostensibly表面上 educated博学 people.
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你们都明显是受过教育的人
08:24
Most of you look smart聪明.
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很多看起来很聪明
08:27
The combination组合 of that produces产生
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这几点加起来
08:30
something that is actually其实, you got this thing wrong错误.
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反而让你们得出错误的答案
08:32
How is that possible可能? Let's go to something else其他.
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怎么会这样? 再看看其他的
08:35
I know algebra代数 can be complicated复杂.
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我知道代数很复杂
08:38
So, let's dial拨号 this back. That's what? Fifth第五 grade年级? Fourth第四 grade年级?
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所以让我们回到...5年级? 4年级?
08:41
Let's go back to kindergarten幼儿园. OK?
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我们回到幼儿园 好不好?
08:44
There's a great show显示 on American美国 television电视 that you have to watch.
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美国有个很赞的电视节目不得不看
08:46
It's called "Are You Smarter智慧 Than a Fifth第五 Grader分级机?"
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叫做"你比小学5年级的聪明吗?"
08:48
I think we've我们已经 learned学到了 the answer回答 to that here.
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我想我们刚才已经有了答案
08:51
Let's move移动 to kindergarten幼儿园. Let's see if we can beat击败 five-year-olds五岁的孩子.
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我们回到幼儿园水平 看看能否打败5岁孩子
08:54
Here's这里的 what I'm going to do: I'm going to put objects对象 on the screen屏幕.
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接下来 我会在屏幕上显示一些物体
08:57
I just want you to name名称 the color颜色 of the object目的.
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我要你们念出这些物体的颜色
09:01
That's all it is. OK?
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就这么简单 明白了吗?
09:03
I want you to do it fast快速, and say it out loud with me,
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你们要说得快 大声的念出来
09:06
and do it quickly很快. I'll make the first one easy简单 for you.
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要说得快 第一个会比较简单
09:08
Ready准备? Black黑色.
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追备好了吗? 黑色
09:10
Now the next下一个 ones那些 I want you to do quickly很快 and say it out loud.
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接下去 我要你们又快又大声的说出来
09:12
Ready准备? Go.
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准备好了吗? 开始
09:14
Audience听众: Red. Green绿色.
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观众: 红 绿
09:16
Yellow黄色. Blue蓝色. Red.
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黄 蓝 红
09:18
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
09:21
SendhilSendhil MullainathanMullainathan: That's pretty漂亮 good.
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森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹: 很好
09:25
Almost几乎 out of kindergarten幼儿园.
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几乎可以幼儿园毕业了
09:27
What is all this telling告诉 us?
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这又告诉我们什么呢?
09:29
You see, what's going on here, and in the bat蝙蝠 and ball problem问题
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刚才的例子以及球拍和球的例子告诉我们
09:32
is that you have some intuitive直观的 ways方法 of interacting互动 with the world世界,
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我们通过直觉认识世界
09:35
some models楷模 that you use to understand理解 the world世界.
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通过某些方式了解世界
09:37
These models楷模, like the leaky泄漏 bucket,
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这些方法 像漏桶原理那样
09:39
work well in most situations情况.
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在多数情况下都行得通
09:41
I suspect疑似 most of you --
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我猜你们中的大多数
09:43
I hope希望 that's true真正 for the rest休息 of you --
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我希望在座的都是这样
09:45
actually其实 do pretty漂亮 well with addition加成 and subtraction减法 in the real真实 world世界.
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对实际中的加减法都很熟练
09:49
I found发现 a problem问题, a specific具体 problem问题
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我发现一个问题 一个特别的问题
09:51
that actually其实 found发现 an error错误 with that.
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造成了这种漏洞
09:54
Diarrhea腹泻, and many许多 last mile英里 problems问题, are like that.
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腹泻和很多最后一英里问题一样
09:56
They are situations情况 where the mental心理 model模型
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使那些思维方式
09:58
doesn't match比赛 the reality现实.
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与实际情况不吻合
10:00
Same相同 thing here:
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刚才也是如此
10:02
You had an intuitive直观的 response响应 to this that was very quick.
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你们很快的用直觉做出了反应
10:04
You read "blue蓝色" and you wanted to say "blue蓝色," even though虽然 you knew知道 your task任务 was red.
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你们读到蓝 就说蓝色 尽管你们应该说红色
10:07
Now, I do this stuff东东 because it's fun开玩笑.
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我做这个实验 是因为这很有趣
10:09
But it's more profound深刻 than fun开玩笑.
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但这不仅仅在于它是有趣的
10:13
I'll give you a good example of how it actually其实 effects效果 persuasion劝说.
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关于说服力 我给大家举个很好的例子
10:16
BMW宝马 is a pretty漂亮 safe安全 car汽车.
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宝马是安全性很高的车
10:19
And they are trying to figure数字 out, "Safety安全 is good.
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他们在想 "安全性是卖点
10:21
I want to advertise广告 safety安全. How am I going to advertise广告 safety安全?"
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我要宣传这个卖点 应该怎么宣传呢?"
10:23
"I could give people numbers数字. We do well on crash紧急 tests测试."
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"可以给出数据 说我们的撞击测试性能很好"
10:26
But the truth真相 of the matter is, you look at that car汽车,
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但事实是 当你注视着辆车的时候
10:28
it doesn't look like a Volvo沃尔沃,
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他不像沃尔沃
10:30
and it doesn't look like a Hummer蜂鸟.
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也不想悍马
10:32
So, what I want you to think about for a few少数 minutes分钟
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我想让你们思考几分钟
10:34
is: How would you convey传达 safety安全 of the BMW宝马? Okay?
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如果是你 怎么宣传宝马的安全性? 好吗?
10:37
So now, while you're thinking思维 about that let's move移动 to a second第二 task任务.
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你们边思考边看第二个任务
10:40
The second第二 task任务 is fuel汽油 efficiency效率. Okay?
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第二个任务就是省油
10:43
Here's这里的 another另一个 puzzle难题 for all of you.
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再给你们出道题
10:45
One person walks散步 into a car汽车 lot,
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有个人走进车场
10:47
and they're thinking思维 about buying购买 this Toyota丰田 Yaris雅力士.
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他想买辆丰田的飞度
10:50
They are saying, "This is 35 miles英里 per gallon加仑. I'm going to do
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他说 "这车每加仑能跑35英里
10:52
the environmentally环保 right thing, I'm going to buy购买 the Prius普锐斯,
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我要环保的 我想买普锐斯
10:54
50 miles英里 per gallon加仑."
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每加仑能跑50英里"
10:56
Another另一个 person walks散步 into the lot,
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另一个人走进车场
10:58
and they're about to buy购买 a Hummer蜂鸟, nine miles英里 per gallon加仑,
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想买悍马 每加仑跑9英里
11:00
fully充分 loaded, luxury豪华.
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厚实 奢华
11:02
And they say, "You know what? Do I need turbo涡轮? Do I need this heavyweight重量级 car汽车?"
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他说道 "我真的需要涡轮增压器吗?需要那么重的车吗?
11:06
I'm going to do something good for the environment环境.
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我要做对环境有益的事
11:08
I'm going to take off some of that weight重量,
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我要减掉那部分重量
11:10
and I'm going to buy购买 a Hummer蜂鸟 that's 11 miles英里 per gallon加仑."
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我要买辆每加仑能跑11英里的悍马"
11:13
Which哪一个 one of these people has doneDONE more for the environment环境?
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哪个人对环境的贡献更大呢?
11:16
See, you have a mental心理 model模型.
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在大家的思维方式中
11:18
Fifty五十 versus 35, that's a big move移动. Eleven十一 versus nine? Come on.
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50到35是很大的差距 11到9呢? 不会吧
11:21
Turns out, go home and do the math数学,
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但如果用心计算一下的话
11:24
the nine to 11 is a bigger change更改. That person has saved保存 more gallons加仑.
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9到11的提升贡献更大 那人能省更多的油
11:27
Why? Because we don't care关心 about miles英里 per gallon加仑, we care关心 about
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为什么? 因为我们不在乎每加仑的里程
11:29
gallons加仑 per mile英里.
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我们在乎每英里的耗油
11:31
Think about how powerful强大 that is if you're trying to encourage鼓励 fuel汽油 efficiency效率.
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想想看 这在鼓励节油方面会有什么影响
11:34
Miles万里 per gallon加仑 is the way we present当下 things.
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我们习惯用每加仑的里程来阐述
11:36
If we want to encourage鼓励 change更改 of behavior行为,
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如果想要改变消费者行为
11:39
gallons加仑 per mile英里 would have far more effectiveness效用.
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每英里耗油会有效的多
11:41
Researchers研究人员 have found发现 these type类型 of anomalies异常.
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研究人员发现了很多相似的情形
11:44
Okay, back to BMW宝马. What should they do?
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再回到宝马 他们该怎么做?
11:47
The problem问题 BMW宝马 faces面孔 is this car汽车 looks容貌 safe安全.
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宝马面临的问题是 这车看上去很安全
11:50
This car汽车, which哪一个 is my Mini微型, doesn't look that safe安全.
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而这辆车 Mini Cooper 就没那么安全了
11:54
Here was BMW's宝马 brilliant辉煌 insight眼光, which哪一个 they embodied体现 into an ad广告 campaign运动.
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宝马把下面这个绝妙的想法融入到广告宣传中
11:57
They showed显示 a BMW宝马 driving主动 down the street.
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一辆宝马在街道中行驶
11:59
There's a truck卡车 on the right. Boxes fall秋季 out of the truck卡车.
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右边有辆火车 车上的箱子掉了下来
12:02
The car汽车 swerves转了个弯 to avoid避免 it, and therefore因此 doesn't get into an accident事故.
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宝马车迅速躲避 避免了车祸
12:07
BWMBWM realizes实现 safety安全, in people's人们 minds头脑, has two components组件.
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宝马意识到 对消费者而言 安全性有两方面
12:11
You can be safe安全 because when you're hit击中, you survive生存,
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撞击时幸免于难可以说是安全的
12:15
or you can be safe安全 because you avoid避免 accidents事故.
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躲避事故也可以称之为安全
12:17
Remarkably异常 successful成功 campaign运动, but notice注意 the power功率 of it.
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相当成功的宣传 但请关注其中的深意
12:19
It harnesses吊带 something you already已经 believe.
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它顺应了你们已有的观念
12:22
Now, even if I persuaded说服了 you to do something,
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即使我说服你去做某件事
12:26
it's hard sometimes有时 to actually其实 get action行动 as a result结果.
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你最后也未必会付诸行动
12:30
You all probably大概 intended to wake唤醒 up,
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你们可能都想在差不多6点半
12:32
I don't know, 6:30, 7 a.m.
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或者7点起床
12:35
This is a battle战斗 we all fight斗争 every一切 day,
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这是我们每天面临的战斗
12:37
along沿 with trying to get to the gym健身房.
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去健身房锻炼也是一样
12:40
Now, this is an example of that battle战斗,
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这就是和睡眠挣扎的例子
12:43
and makes品牌 us realize实现 intentions意图 don't always translate翻译 into action行动,
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它告诉我们 愿望不应定能付诸行动
12:46
and so one of the fundamental基本的 challenges挑战
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所以其中的一个本质性问题就是
12:48
is how we would actually其实 do that. OK?
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我们怎样才会付诸行动
12:52
So, let me now talk about the last mile英里 problem问题.
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我现在来谈谈最后一英里的问题
12:55
So far, I've been pretty漂亮 negative.
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到现在为止 我都很消极
12:58
I've been trying to show显示 you the oddities古怪 of human人的 behavior行为.
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我一直向你们传递人类行为的丑恶面
13:01
And I think maybe I'm being存在 too negative.
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我在想也许是我太消极了
13:03
Maybe it's the diarrhea腹泻.
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也许痢疾本来就难防
13:05
Maybe the last mile英里 problem问题 really should be thought of
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也许最后一英里的问题应该称为
13:07
as the last mile英里 opportunity机会.
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最后一英里的机遇
13:09
Let's go back to diabetes糖尿病.
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我们再回到糖尿病上
13:11
This is a typical典型 insulin胰岛素 injection注射.
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这是典型的胰岛素注射剂
13:14
Now, carrying携带 this thing around is complicated复杂.
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带着这些外出挺麻烦的
13:17
You gotta总得 carry携带 the bottle瓶子, you gotta总得 carry携带 the syringe注射器.
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既要带着瓶子 有要带注射器
13:21
It's also painful痛苦.
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还很痛
13:23
Now, you may可能 think to yourself你自己, "Well, if my eyes眼睛 depended依赖 on it,
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你可能会想 "如果我的眼睛靠它了
13:27
you know, I would obviously明显 use it every一切 day."
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我当然会坚持每天注射"
13:29
But the pain疼痛, the discomfort不舒服,
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但考虑下这种疼痛 这种不便
13:31
you know, paying付款 attention注意, remembering记忆 to put it in your purse钱包
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长途旅行的时候 还要记着
13:33
when you go on a long trip:
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放在包包里
13:35
These are the day-to-day日复一日 of life, and they do pose提出 problems问题.
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这些确实为日常生活带来了问题
13:39
Here is an innovation革新, a design设计 innovation革新.
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这是一个创新 设计山的创新
13:42
This is a pen钢笔, it's called an insulin胰岛素 pen钢笔, preloaded预装.
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它是一支笔 叫做胰岛素笔针 预载的
13:46
The needle is particularly尤其 sharp尖锐.
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针头特别尖锐
13:47
You just gotta总得 carry携带 this thing around.
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带着这个外出
13:49
It's much easier更轻松 to use, much less painful痛苦.
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既方便 有减少了痛苦
13:51
Anywhere随地 between之间 five and 10 percent百分 increase增加 in adherence附着,
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多付出5%到10%的努力
13:55
just as a result结果 of this.
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就能取得这样的成果
13:57
That's what I'm talking about as a last mile英里 opportunity机会.
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这就是我想说的最后一英里的机遇
14:00
You see, we tend趋向 to think the problem问题 is solved解决了
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我们以为解决了技术上的难题
14:03
when we solve解决 the technology技术 problem问题.
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就算是解决了问题
14:05
But the human人的 innovation革新, the human人的 problem问题
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但是问题却仍然存在
14:07
still remains遗迹, and that's a great frontier边境 that we have left.
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这就是在技术创新后遇到的问题
14:11
This isn't about the biology生物学 of people;
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现在的问题不在于生理层面
14:13
this is now about the brains大脑, the psychology心理学 of people,
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而在于人的意识 人的心理层面
14:17
and innovation革新 needs需求 to continue继续 all the way through通过
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创新应该有始有终
14:19
the last mile英里.
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直到最后一英里
14:21
Here's这里的 another另一个 example of this.
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这是另一个例子
14:23
This is from a company公司 called Positive Energy能源.
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这是积极能源公司的资料
14:26
This is about energy能源 efficiency效率.
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讲的是节能这件事
14:28
We're spending开支 a lot of time on fuel汽油 cells细胞 right now.
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我们现在在做很多能量电池的研究
14:31
What this company公司 does is they send发送 a letter
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这家公司的所做的就是把信寄到各家各户
14:33
to households that say, "Here's这里的 your energy能源 use,
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告诉他们 "这是你的能源利用状况
14:35
here's这里的 your neighbor's邻居 energy能源 use: You're doing well." Smiley斯迈利 face面对.
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这是你邻居的能源使用状况 你做的很好" 加个笑脸
14:38
"You're doing worse更差." Frown皱眉.
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"你做的不太好" 加个苦脸
14:40
And what they find is just this letter, nothing else其他,
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他们发现单单靠这封信就可以
14:43
has a two to three percent百分 reduction减少 in electricity电力 use.
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减少2%到3%的能源使用
14:45
And you want to think about the social社会 value of that
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从这件事情的社会影响来看
14:47
in terms条款 of carbon offsets偏移, reduced减少 electricity电力,
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如果计算减排的二氧化碳和节省的电能
14:49
900 million百万 dollars美元 per year.
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每年能省下9亿美元
14:51
Why? Because for free自由,
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为什么? 因为是免费的
14:53
this isn't a new technology技术, this is a letter --
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这不是一项新技术 这只是一封信
14:55
we're getting得到 a Big Bang in behavior行为.
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却对我们的行为产生了惊天动地的影响
14:57
So, how do we tackle滑车 the last mile英里?
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我们如何突破这最后一英里呢?
15:01
I think this tells告诉 us there is an opportunity机会.
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我想有很多机会等着我们
15:04
And I think to tackle滑车 it, we need to combine结合
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要想实现突破 我们需要将
15:06
psychology心理学,
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心理学
15:08
marketing营销,
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市场营销
15:10
art艺术, we've我们已经 seen看到 that.
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艺术综合起来 我们刚才已经看到了
15:12
But you know what we need to combine结合 it with?
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但我们还需要把什么加进来呢?
15:14
We need to combine结合 this with the scientific科学 method方法.
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我们要把科学方法加进来
15:16
See what's really puzzling令人费解 and frustrating泄气 about the last mile英里, to me,
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最后一英里之所以让我感到迷惑和沮丧
15:20
is that the first 999 miles英里 are all about science科学.
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是因为开始的999英里都是关于科学
15:23
No one would say, "Hey, I think this medicine医学 works作品, go ahead and use it."
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没人会说 "我认为这种药没问题 尽管去用吧"
15:27
We have testing测试, we go to the lab实验室, we try it again, we have refinement精致.
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我们测试 然后在研究 再测试 然后改进
15:29
But you know what we do on the last mile英里?
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但看看我们在最后一英里做了什么?
15:32
"Oh, this is a good idea理念. People will like this. Let's put it out there."
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"这是个好主意 大家会喜欢的 拿出去卖吧"
15:35
The amount of resources资源 we put in are disparate不同.
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我们对两者的重视度是迥异的
15:37
We put billions数十亿 of dollars美元 into fuel-efficient省油 technologies技术.
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我们在节能技术上花了大把大把的钱
15:40
How much are we putting into
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而通过可靠的 系统的测试办法
15:42
energy能源 behavior行为 change更改
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改变人们的节能行为
15:44
in a credible可信的, systematic系统的, testing测试 way?
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又花了多少钱?
15:47
Now, I think that we're on the verge边缘 of something big.
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我认为 有个重大变革正在向我们走来
15:50
We're on the verge边缘 of a whole整个 new social社会 science科学.
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我们将迎来一个崭新的社会科学
15:53
It's a social社会 science科学 that recognizes识别 --
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这种社会科学的认识过程
15:55
much like science科学 recognizes识别 the complexity复杂 of the body身体,
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正像科学认识人体的复杂性
15:58
biology生物学 recognizes识别 the complexity复杂 of the body身体 -- we'll recognize认识
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生物学认识人体的复杂性那样 我们会认识到
16:00
the complexity复杂 of the human人的 mind心神.
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人类思维方式的复杂性
16:02
The careful小心 testing测试, retesting复验, design设计,
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通过认真的测试 再测试 设计
16:04
are going to open打开 up vistas景观 of understanding理解,
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我们会开启认识复杂事物
16:07
complexities复杂性, difficult things.
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解决难题的大门
16:09
And those vistas景观 will both create创建 new science科学,
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这扇大门将会在接下去的百年中
16:12
and fundamental基本的 change更改 in the world世界 as we see it, in the next下一个 hundred years年份.
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促成新科学的诞生 彻底的改变我们所在的世界
16:16
All right. Thank you very much.
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这就是我的演讲 谢谢
16:18
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
16:20
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: SendhilSendhil, thank you so much.
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森德希尔,感谢你的演讲
16:22
So, this whole整个 area is so fascinating迷人.
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行为经济学是一个相当迷人的领域
16:25
I mean, it sometimes有时 feels感觉, listening to behavioral行为的 economists经济学家
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我有时感觉 行为经济学
16:28
that they are kind of putting into place地点
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就是把某些杰出的营销员
16:31
academically学术上, what great marketers营销
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长久以来就拥有的直觉
16:33
have sort分类 of intuitively直观地 known已知 for a long time.
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加以理论化
16:36
How much is your field领域 talking to great marketers营销
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你们的这一领域是如何看待杰出营销员
16:40
about their insights见解 into human人的 psychology心理学?
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对人类心理学的洞察的?
16:42
Because they've他们已经 seen看到 it on the ground地面.
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因为他们是在实际中观察的
16:44
SendhilSendhil MullainathanMullainathan: Yeah, we spend a lot of time talking to marketers营销,
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我们和营销员有很多交流
16:46
and I think 60 percent百分 of it is exactly究竟 what you say,
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60%的人跟你说的那样
16:49
there are insights见解 to be gleaned收集 there.
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他们有很多观点值得我们什么深思
16:51
Forty四十 percent百分 of it is about what marketing营销 is.
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40%的人想的是营销是什么
16:53
Marketing营销 is selling销售 an ad广告 to a firm公司.
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营销就是向公司卖广告
16:58
So, in some sense, a lot of marketing营销 is about
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某种程度上来说 很多营销就是
17:00
convincing使人信服 a CEOCEO, "This is a good ad广告 campaign运动."
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说服CEO这是个营销方案的有效性
17:03
So, there is a little bit of slippage滑移 there.
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所以这有些蹊跷
17:05
That's just a caveat警告. That's different不同 from actually其实 having an effective有效 ad广告 campaign运动.
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这还只是做到一半 跟真正的有效的营销方案还有一定的距离
17:09
And one of the new movements运动 in marketing营销 is: How do we actually其实
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营销里面的一个新的课题就是 如何真正的
17:11
measure测量 effectiveness效用? Are we effective有效?
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评估有效性? 真的是有效的吗?
17:13
CACA: How you take your insights见解 here
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你如何说服他们
17:17
and actually其实 get them integrated集成
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将你的观点运用到
17:20
into working加工 business商业 models楷模 on the ground地面,
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实际当中
17:23
in Indian印度人 villages村庄, for example?
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以印度农村为例
17:25
SMSM: So, the scientific科学 method方法 I alluded暗示 to is pretty漂亮 important重要.
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我提到的科学方法很重要
17:28
We work closely密切 with companies公司 that have operational操作 capacity容量,
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我们和那些有实力的公司
17:30
or nonprofits非营利组织 that have operational操作 capacity容量.
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以及有实力的非营利性组织紧密合作
17:32
And then we say, "Well, you want to get this behavior行为 change更改.
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我们跟他们说 你要是想改变某种行为
17:34
Let's come up with a few少数 ideas思路, test测试 them,
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就先想出几个方案 进行测试
17:37
see which哪一个 is working加工, go back, synthesize合成,
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看看哪些可行 再回头综合一下
17:39
and try to come up with a thing that works作品,"
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想想还有没有其他的点子
17:41
and then we're able能够 to scale规模 with partners伙伴.
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再将这些想法和合作商的实力匹配
17:43
It's kind of the model模型 that has worked工作 in other contexts上下文.
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这根其他方面的工作类似
17:45
If you have biological生物 problems问题
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如果你想解决一个生物学问题
17:47
we try and fix固定 it, see if it works作品, and then work the scale规模.
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先试着解决 如果可行 就扩大规模
17:49
CACA: Alright好的 SendhilSendhil, thanks谢谢 so much for coming未来 to TEDTED. Thank you.
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好的 森德希尔 感谢你来到TED 谢谢
17:52
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Zach Xue
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sendhil Mullainathan - Behavioral economist
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination?

Why you should listen

To study big questions such as "What are the measurable effects of corruption?"" Sendhil Mullainathan and his collaborators look at the day-to-day decisions made by real people, running deep-data studies on groups around the world to tease out patterns. Awarded a MacArthur ""genius"" grant in 2002, he has produced and collaborated on a string of research papers that make for a must-read CV -- including a fascinating, if dispiriting, study of the corruption involved in getting a driver's license in India.

Lately he and his team have been studying women who sell fruit and vegetables on the streets in developing countries. They're usually in debt to a moneylender in the market, who takes about half their profits each day as interest. Some of the women have figured a simple way to get out of debt and keep all their profits. But most of the women make a choice every day that keeps them in debt. How would these businesswomen behave, he wondered, if the slate was wiped clean? So he got a grant, paid off their debt, and waits to see what happens next."

More profile about the speaker
Sendhil Mullainathan | Speaker | TED.com