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TEDIndia 2009

Sendhil Mullainathan: Solving social problems with a nudge

山迪.穆蘭納森:為解決社會問題再加把勁

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麥克阿瑟獎得主山迪.穆蘭納森,以行為經濟學家的角度,研究了一系列難以解決的社會問題,那些問題早有解法,但卻依然存在。我們知道如何降低孩童痢疾死亡率,如何避免糖尿病所引發的失明,也知道如何導入太陽能電池科技,但不知為何,我們就是辦不到,或是無法做到,為什麼會這樣?

- Behavioral economist
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination? Full bio

As a researcher研究員, every一切 once一旦 in a while
身為一個研究人員,
00:15
you encounter遭遇 something
每過一陣子,總是會遇到
00:18
a little disconcerting令人不安.
一些令人驚訝的事,
00:20
And this is something that changes變化 your understanding理解 of the world世界 around you,
這些事會改變你對週遭世界的認知,
00:22
and teaches you that you're very wrong錯誤
讓你瞭解你以往所深信的某些事,
00:25
about something that you really believed相信 firmly牢牢 in.
其實是大錯特錯。
00:27
And these are unfortunate不幸的 moments瞬間,
我認為遇到這種事其實不好過,
00:31
because you go to sleep睡覺 that night
因為你會覺得自己
00:34
dumber than when you woke醒來 up.
比前一天又笨了一點。
00:36
So, that's really the goal目標 of my talk,
這就是我今天演說的目的,
00:39
is to A, communicate通信 that moment時刻 to you
第一,和你們談談那些不好過的經驗,
00:41
and B, have you leave離開 this session會議
第二,希望你們在離開會場時,
00:43
a little dumber than when you entered進入.
會變得比之前更笨一點。
00:45
So, I hope希望 I can really accomplish完成 that.
我希望我能達成這二個目標。
00:47
So, this incident事件 that I'm going to describe描述
我要談的這件事,
00:50
really began開始 with some diarrhea腹瀉.
其實可以從痢疾談起。
00:53
Now, we've我們已經 known已知 for a long time the cause原因 of diarrhea腹瀉.
我們早就知道痢疾是怎麼引起的,
00:56
That's why there's a glass玻璃 of water up there.
所以我放了一張一杯水的投影片在上面。
00:59
For us, it's a problem問題, the people in this room房間.
對我們在座的各位來說,那不就只是個健康問題而已,
01:02
For babies嬰兒, it's deadly致命.
但是對小嬰兒來說,卻有可能致命,
01:04
They lack缺乏 nutrients營養成分, and diarrhea腹瀉 dehydrates脫水 them.
因為他們吸收不到養份,痢疾還會使他們脫水,
01:07
And so, as a result結果, there is a lot of death死亡,
因此造成了極高的死亡率,
01:11
a lot of death死亡.
很多嬰兒死亡。
01:13
In India印度 in 1960,
在1960代的印度,
01:16
there was a 24 percent百分 child兒童 mortality死亡 rate,
孩童的死亡率是24%,
01:18
lots of people didn't make it. This is incredibly令人難以置信 unfortunate不幸的.
很多小孩熬不過去,真的很不幸!
01:20
One of the big reasons原因 this happened發生 was
死亡率居高不下的主要原因,
01:24
because of diarrhea腹瀉.
就是痢疾。
01:26
Now, there was a big effort功夫 to solve解決 this problem問題,
現在,有很多人致力於改善這個問題,
01:28
and there was actually其實 a big solution.
也有很有效的解決方法,
01:31
This solution has been called, by some,
有人稱這個方法為:
01:35
"potentially可能 the most important重要 medical
「有可能是本世紀最重要的
01:37
advance提前 this century世紀."
醫學突破」。
01:39
Now, the solution turned轉身 out to be simple簡單.
這個方法出奇地簡單,
01:42
And what it was was oral口服 rehydration補液 salts.
就是使用口服補液鹽,
01:45
Many許多 of you have probably大概 used this.
在座各位可能有使用過,
01:49
It's brilliant輝煌. It's a way to get sodium
那真是一個好方法!裡面混合了
01:51
and glucose葡萄糖 together一起 so that when you add it to water
鈉與葡萄糖,所以當我們摻入水中,
01:53
the child兒童 is able能夠 to absorb吸收 it even during situations情況 of diarrhea腹瀉.
孩子們即使感染了痢疾,還是能夠吸收到這些養份。
01:56
Remarkable卓越 impact碰撞 on mortality死亡.
這大幅降低了孩童死亡率,
01:59
Massive海量 solution to the problem問題.
並大幅改善了這個問題。
02:03
Flash forward前鋒: 1960, 24 percent百分 child兒童 mortality死亡
讓我們看看,1960年代有24%的孩童死亡率,
02:05
has dropped下降 to 6.5 percent百分 today今天.
現在已經降到了6.5%了,
02:08
Still a big number, but a big drop下降.
雖然比率還是很高,但已經下降了許多。
02:10
It looks容貌 like the technological技術性 problem問題 is solved解決了.
看起來這個問題的技術面已經克服了,
02:13
But if you look, even today今天
但是,如果我們看看今天的狀況,
02:16
there are about 400,000 diarrhea-related腹瀉有關 deaths死亡
在印度,仍然有40萬人死於
02:18
in India印度 alone單獨.
痢疾相關的疾病,
02:20
What's going on here?
究竟是怎麼回事?
02:22
Well the easy簡單 answer回答 is, we just haven't沒有 gotten得到 those salts
不用想也知道,就是我們沒有提供那些鹽
02:24
to those people.
給需要的人啊...
02:27
That's actually其實 not true真正.
這個想法不對,
02:29
If you look in areas where these salts are completely全然 available可得到,
如果你仔細觀察,你會發現這種鹽到處都買得到,
02:31
the price價錢 is low or zero, these deaths死亡 still continue繼續 abated減弱.
價格也很低,甚至不用錢,但是死亡率還是很高。
02:34
Maybe there's a biological生物 answer回答.
或許是生物學上的問題吧?
02:37
Maybe these are the deaths死亡 that simple簡單 rehydration補液
或許他們純粹是因為脫水
02:39
alone單獨 doesn't solve解決. That's not true真正 either.
而沒有辦法醫治好?這也不對。
02:41
Many許多 of these deaths死亡 were completely全然 preventable預防的,
大部分痢疾患者的死亡都是可以避免的,
02:44
and this what I want to think of as the disconcerting令人不安 thing,
這就是我所說的令人驚訝的事,
02:49
what I want to call "the last mile英里" problem問題.
也就是我稱之為「最後一哩」的問題。
02:52
See, we spent花費 a lot of energy能源, in many許多 domains --
我們在不同的領域裡都投注了相當多的精力,
02:54
technological技術性, scientific科學, hard work,
不管是科技、科學、勞動、
02:58
creativity創造力, human人的 ingenuity創造力 --
創造或工藝等,
03:00
to crack裂紋 important重要 social社會 problems問題 with technology技術 solutions解決方案.
我們都運用了科技來解決這些重要的社會問題。
03:02
That's been the discoveries發現 of the last 2,000 years年份,
我們近二千年來都是這麼做,
03:06
that's mankind人類 moving移動 forward前鋒.
是人性推動著我們往前邁進。
03:08
But in this case案件 we cracked破解 it,
但我們在處理痢疾這個問題時,
03:10
but a big part部分 of the problem問題 still remains遺跡.
卻仍有一大部分的問題沒有解決;
03:13
Nine hundred and ninety-nine99 miles英里 went well,
前面那999哩路我們都走得很順暢,
03:15
the last mile's英里的 proving證明 incredibly令人難以置信 stubborn倔強.
但最後那一哩路卻顯得異常艱難。
03:17
Now, that's for oral口服 rehydration補液 therapy治療.
我們運用口服補液療法來治療痢疾,
03:20
Maybe this is something unique獨特 about diarrhea腹瀉.
但或許這種痢疾特別難治,
03:24
Well, it turns out -- and this is where things get really disconcerting令人不安 --
可是我們發現了驚人的事實,
03:26
it's not unique獨特 to diarrhea腹瀉.
這種痢疾並不算特別,
03:28
It's not even unique獨特 to poor較差的 people in India印度.
在印度的窮人間算是很普遍的。
03:30
Here's這裡的 an example from a variety品種 of contexts上下文.
我要舉一個綜合了多種元素的例子,
03:32
I've put a bunch of examples例子 up here.
我會把各種例子都放在上面,
03:35
I'll start開始 with insulin胰島素, diabetes糖尿病
就先從美國治療
03:37
medication藥物治療 in the U.S.
糖尿病的胰島素開始談起吧。
03:40
OK, the American美國 population人口.
好,先談美國的人口結構,
03:42
On Medicaid醫療補助 -- if you're fairly相當 poor較差的 you get Medicaid醫療補助,
如果你是個很窮的美國人,你可以靠醫療補助取得胰島素,
03:44
or if you have health健康 insurance保險 -- insulin胰島素 is pretty漂亮 straightforward直截了當.
或如果你有醫療保險的話,你也可以輕易得到胰島素治療,
03:46
You get it, either in pill form形成 or you get it as an injection注射;
不管是服用胰島素藥劑或是針劑注射都可以,
03:48
you have to take it every一切 day to maintain保持 your blood血液 sugar levels水平.
你必須每天服用或注射,以維持血糖的水準。
03:52
Massive海量 technological技術性 advance提前:
我們在這上面運用了大量先進的科技,
03:54
took an incredibly令人難以置信 deadly致命 disease疾病, made製作 it solvable可解.
讓這種致死率極高的病症獲得控制。
03:56
Adherence附著 rates利率. How many許多 people are taking服用 their insulin胰島素 every一切 day?
我們來看看持續率,有多少人每天都服用或注射胰島素?
03:58
About on average平均, a typical典型 person is taking服用 it 75 percent百分 of the time.
平均來說,每個人大約都只有75%的時間會依照指示用藥,
04:01
As a result結果, 25,000 people a year go blind,
因此,每年都有2萬5千人因此而失明,
04:05
hundreds數以百計 of thousands數千 lose失去 limbs四肢, every一切 year,
每年都有數十萬人因此截肢,
04:10
for something that's solvable可解.
糖尿病並非無藥可醫啊...
04:12
Here I have a bunch of other examples例子,
我還有一大堆這種例子,
04:14
all suffer遭受 from the last mile英里 problem問題.
都是無法堅持到最後一哩才產生問題,
04:16
It's not just medicine醫學.
不只是醫療方面的問題,
04:18
Here's這裡的 another另一個 example from technology技術:
這裡還有其他科技上的問題,
04:20
agriculture農業. We think
像是農業。
04:22
there's a food餐飲 problem問題, so we create創建 new seeds種子.
我們以為會有糧食危機,所以我們製造出新品種的種子;
04:24
We think there's an income收入 problem問題, so we create創建
我們以為農人的收入會是問題,
04:26
new ways方法 of farming農業 that increase增加 income收入.
所以我們開發新的農耕技術以提升收入。
04:28
Well, look at some old ways方法, some ways方法 that we'd星期三 already已經 cracked破解.
嗯,我們來看看以前的老方法,那些我們已經實行多年的老方法,
04:31
Intercropping間作. Intercropping間作 really increases增加 income收入.
例如交叉耕作。交叉耕作確實能增加農民的收入,
04:34
Sometimes有時 in rice白飯 we found發現 incredible難以置信 increases增加 in yield產量
在耕作稻米時,有時我們會發現,當你將不同品種的稻米
04:36
when you mix混合 different不同 varieties品種 of rice白飯 side by side.
一排一排地交叉耕作時,其產量會出奇地高。
04:39
Some people are doing that,
有些人會這樣做,
04:41
many許多 are not. What's going on?
但大部分的人不採用這種方法,為什麼?
04:43
This is the last mile英里.
這就是最後一哩的問題,
04:45
The last mile英里 is, everywhere到處, problematic問題.
每一個例子的問題都出在最後一哩,
04:47
Alright好的, what's the problem問題?
那麼,究竟最後一哩的問題是什麼?
04:49
The problem問題 is this little three-pound3磅重 machine
問題出在這個重約1.5公斤、
04:51
that's behind背後 your eyes眼睛 and between之間 your ears耳朵.
躲在你眼睛後面、夾在你耳朵中間的玩意兒,
04:54
This machine is really strange奇怪,
這玩意兒真的很奇怪,
04:58
and one of the consequences後果 is that people are weird奇怪的.
所以讓人們的行為也變得很怪異,
05:00
They do lots of inconsistent不符 things.
人們會做出一堆前後不一致的事情出來!
05:04
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
05:08
They do lots of inconsistent不符 things.
人們就是會做一堆前後不一致的事情!
05:10
And the inconsistencies不一致性
就是這種不一致,
05:13
create創建, fundamentally從根本上, this last mile英里 problem問題.
才製造出我們剛才所談的最後一哩的問題。
05:15
See, when we were dealing交易 with our biology生物學, bacteria,
看看,在我們研究生物學、細菌、
05:18
the genes基因, the things inside here, the blood血液?
基因、這裡面的東西、血液等,
05:21
That's complex複雜, but it's manageable管理.
看似很複雜,但我們都還能處理;
05:24
When we're dealing交易 with people like this?
但是當我們處理這一類人的問題時,
05:27
The mind心神 is more complex複雜.
人的心智又更複雜,
05:30
That's not as manageable管理, and that's what we're struggling奮鬥的 with.
並不像先前那些東西容易應付,那就是我們陷入的困境。
05:32
Let me go back to diarrhea腹瀉 for a second第二.
我想先回來談一下痢疾,
05:34
Here's這裡的 a question that was asked in the National國民 Sample樣品 Survey調查,
國家抽樣調查協會在一項針對印度婦女的調查中,
05:37
which哪一個 is a survey調查 asked of many許多 Indian印度人 women婦女:
曾問過這樣一個問題,
05:40
"Your child兒童 has diarrhea腹瀉.
「如果你的孩子得了痢疾,
05:42
Should you increase增加, maintain保持 or decrease減少 the number of fluids流體?"
你該增加/不變/減少孩子攝取的水份量?」
05:44
Just so you don't embarrass阻礙 yourselves你自己, I'll give you the right answer回答:
為了不讓各位難堪,我就直接把答案公布出來,
05:47
It's increase增加.
答案是增加。
05:50
Now, diarrhea's腹瀉的 interesting有趣
痢疾很有趣,
05:54
because it's been around for thousands數千 of years年份,
它已經存在了幾千年了,
05:55
ever since以來 humankind人類 really
自從人類開始群居在一起,
05:57
lived生活 side by side enough足夠 to have really polluted污染 water.
群居的密度大到足以污染水源時就開始存在。
06:00
One Roman羅馬 strategy戰略 that was very interesting有趣
羅馬人對付痢疾很有一套,
06:03
was that -- and it really gave them a comparative比較 advantage優點 --
這讓羅馬人佔盡了優勢,
06:05
they made製作 sure their soldiers士兵 didn't drink
他們要求士兵不得飲用髒污的水,
06:07
even remotely遠程 muddied攪渾 waters水域.
即使在很遠以外的污水也不可以。
06:10
Because if some of your troops軍隊 get diarrhea腹瀉 they're not that effective有效
因為士兵一旦染上了痢疾,就無法在戰場上
06:12
on the battlefield戰場.
發揮戰鬥力。
06:15
So, if you think of Roman羅馬 comparative比較 advantage優點 part部分 of it was the breast乳房 shields盾牌,
如果你以為羅馬人的優勢是在於他們的盾牌,
06:17
the breastplates胸甲, but part部分 of it was drinking the right water.
在於他們的盔甲,那麼另一個優勢就是他們知道要飲用乾淨的水。
06:19
So, here are these women婦女. They've他們已經 seen看到 their parents父母
好,這些印度婦女早就看過他們的父母
06:23
have struggled掙扎 with diarrhea腹瀉, they've他們已經 struggled掙扎 with diarrhea腹瀉,
與痢疾纏鬥,他們自己也與痢疾纏鬥過,
06:25
they've他們已經 seen看到 lots of deaths死亡. How do they answer回答 this question?
他們看過無數人死去,那麼他們的答案是什麼呢?
06:27
In India印度, 35 to 50 percent百分 say "Reduce減少."
有35%到50%的印度婦女的答案是「減少」。
06:30
Think about what that means手段 for a second第二.
請你花點時間好好想想這代表了什麼意思,
06:34
Thirty-five三十五 to 50 percent百分 of women婦女
有35%到50%的印度婦女
06:36
forget忘記 oral口服 rehydration補液 therapy治療,
忘記了有口服補液療法,
06:38
they are increasing增加 --
他們反而加速...
06:40
they are actually其實 making製造 their child兒童
他們所採取的行動,反而讓
06:42
more likely容易 to die through通過 their actions行動.
孩子們加速死去,
06:45
How is that possible可能?
為什麼會這樣?
06:48
Well, one possibility可能性 -- I think that's how most people respond響應 to this --
嗯,我認為大部份的人會想:
06:50
is to say, "That's just stupid."
「因為他們愚昧無知。」
06:53
I don't think that's stupid.
我不覺得他們愚昧無知,
06:57
I think there is something very profoundly深深 right in what these women婦女 are doing.
我反而認為這些婦女所做的事,一定有非常正確的理由,
06:59
And that is, you don't put water
也就是:你不會把水倒進
07:02
into a leaky洩漏 bucket.
會漏水的桶子裡吧...
07:04
So, think of the mental心理 model模型 that goes behind背後 reducing減少 the intake錄取.
想想看他們減少孩子的水份攝取量背後所持的理由,
07:06
Just doesn't make sense.
儘管不合理,
07:10
Now, the model模型 is intuitively直觀地 right.
但在直覺上來說卻是沒有問題的,
07:12
It just doesn't happen發生 to be right about the world世界.
只是世界上其他的人並不這麼想,
07:15
But it makes品牌 a whole整個 lot of sense at some deep level水平.
但你只要再深入想想你就會瞭解他們的想法。
07:19
And that, to me, is the fundamental基本的 challenge挑戰
這對我來說,就是最後一哩背後
07:22
of the last mile英里.
所代表的艱鉅挑戰。
07:25
This first challenge挑戰 is what I refer參考 to as the persuasion勸說 challenge挑戰.
第一個挑戰,我稱之為說服的挑戰。
07:30
Convincing使人信服 people to do something --
要說服別人做一件事,
07:33
take oral口服 rehydration補液 therapy治療, intercrop間作, whatever隨你 it might威力 be --
像是採用口服補液療法、交叉耕作等等,
07:35
is not an act法案 of information信息:
都不只是告訴他們有這件事而已。
07:37
"Let's give them the data數據,
「我們來把資料發送出去,
07:40
and when they have data數據 they'll他們會 do the right thing."
他們拿到資料就會開始做正確的事了。」
07:42
It's more complex複雜 than that.
沒有這麼簡單。
07:44
And if you want to understand理解 how it's more complex複雜
如果你想要知道為什麼沒有這麼簡單,
07:46
let me start開始 with something kind of interesting有趣.
就讓我用一些有趣的例子來說明吧。
07:48
I'm going to give you a little math數學 problem問題,
我先給你們做一些小小的數學測驗,
07:52
and I want you to just yell叫喊 out the answer回答 as fast快速 as possible可能.
我要你們儘快地將答案大聲說出來。
07:54
A bat蝙蝠 and a ball together一起 cost成本 $1.10.
一支球棒和一顆球加起來是1.1美元,
07:57
The bat蝙蝠 costs成本 a dollar美元 more than the ball.
球棒比球貴1元,
07:59
How much does the ball cost成本? Quick.
請問球是多少錢?快點答!
08:02
So, somebody out there says, "Five."
那邊有人說5美分,
08:05
A lot of you said, "Ten."
大部分的人說10美分,
08:07
Let's think about 10 for a second第二.
我們先來想想10美分這個答案,
08:09
If the ball costs成本 10, the bat蝙蝠 costs成本...
如果球是10美分,那球棒是...
08:12
this is easy簡單, $1.10.
這很簡單嘛...1.1元
08:16
Yeah. So, together一起 they would cost成本 $1.20.
對吧?所以加起來就是1.2美元。
08:18
So, here you all are, ostensibly表面上 educated博學 people.
在座各位很明顯都是受過教育的人,
08:21
Most of you look smart聰明.
大部分的人都很聰明,
08:24
The combination組合 of that produces產生
受過教育又聰明的人
08:27
something that is actually其實, you got this thing wrong錯誤.
卻做出這個錯誤的答案,
08:30
How is that possible可能? Let's go to something else其他.
怎麼會這樣?我們來看看其他的問題,
08:32
I know algebra代數 can be complicated複雜.
我覺得代數太複雜了,
08:35
So, let's dial撥號 this back. That's what? Fifth第五 grade年級? Fourth第四 grade年級?
我們往回推一點好了,那要回推到哪裡呢?五年級?還是四年級?
08:38
Let's go back to kindergarten幼兒園. OK?
要不乾脆回推到幼稚園好了?
08:41
There's a great show顯示 on American美國 television電視 that you have to watch.
美國有一個很棒的電視節目,你一定得看,
08:44
It's called "Are You Smarter智慧 Than a Fifth第五 Grader分級機?"
節目叫做「你比五年級生聰明嗎?」,
08:46
I think we've我們已經 learned學到了 the answer回答 to that here.
我們剛剛才證明了你們是不是比五年級生聰明。
08:48
Let's move移動 to kindergarten幼兒園. Let's see if we can beat擊敗 five-year-olds五歲的孩子.
那麼我們考些幼稚園的問題好了,看看你們是否能打敗五歲的小孩。
08:51
Here's這裡的 what I'm going to do: I'm going to put objects對象 on the screen屏幕.
我要做的是,把幾個圖案放在投影片上,
08:54
I just want you to name名稱 the color顏色 of the object目的.
我要請你們把圖案的顏色說出來,
08:57
That's all it is. OK?
這樣就好了,可以嗎?
09:01
I want you to do it fast快速, and say it out loud with me,
我要你們很快地說出顏色,和我一起大聲地說出來,
09:03
and do it quickly很快. I'll make the first one easy簡單 for you.
而且要很快。第一個先來個簡單的,
09:06
Ready準備? Black黑色.
準備好了嗎?黑色。
09:08
Now the next下一個 ones那些 I want you to do quickly很快 and say it out loud.
接下來,我要你們很快地大聲說出顏色,
09:10
Ready準備? Go.
可以嗎?開始!
09:12
Audience聽眾: Red. Green綠色.
觀眾:紅色、綠色、
09:14
Yellow黃色. Blue藍色. Red.
黃色、藍色、紅色。
09:16
(Laughter笑聲)
(笑聲)
09:18
SendhilSendhil MullainathanMullainathan: That's pretty漂亮 good.
山迪:很好!
09:21
Almost幾乎 out of kindergarten幼兒園.
幾乎比幼稚園小朋友還要好了!
09:25
What is all this telling告訴 us?
這件事有什麼意義?
09:27
You see, what's going on here, and in the bat蝙蝠 and ball problem問題
你們剛才的表現,和剛才回答球棒與球的問題,
09:29
is that you have some intuitive直觀的 ways方法 of interacting互動 with the world世界,
你們都是用直覺來回應這個世界的問題,
09:32
some models楷模 that you use to understand理解 the world世界.
你所使用的是你以往所瞭解的模式,
09:35
These models楷模, like the leaky洩漏 bucket,
這些模式就像印度婦女所想到的漏水的桶子,
09:37
work well in most situations情況.
在大部分狀況下都可以應付一般的問題。
09:39
I suspect疑似 most of you --
我相信大部分的人...
09:41
I hope希望 that's true真正 for the rest休息 of you --
希望其他的人也是一樣,
09:43
actually其實 do pretty漂亮 well with addition加成 and subtraction減法 in the real真實 world世界.
在現實生活裡應該都能做出正確的加法與減法。
09:45
I found發現 a problem問題, a specific具體 problem問題
但我發現了一個特別的問題,
09:49
that actually其實 found發現 an error錯誤 with that.
會讓我們犯下錯誤,
09:51
Diarrhea腹瀉, and many許多 last mile英里 problems問題, are like that.
也就是我們在痢疾和其他最後一哩的問題上所犯的錯誤。
09:54
They are situations情況 where the mental心理 model模型
我發現,有時候我們的直覺反應
09:56
doesn't match比賽 the reality現實.
與現實世界並不相符。
09:58
Same相同 thing here:
剛才也是一樣,
10:00
You had an intuitive直觀的 response響應 to this that was very quick.
你們的直覺反應非常迅速,
10:02
You read "blue藍色" and you wanted to say "blue藍色," even though雖然 you knew知道 your task任務 was red.
你看到了用紅色所書寫的「blue(藍色)」,你沒有說出紅色,卻說成了藍色。
10:04
Now, I do this stuff東東 because it's fun開玩笑.
我這麼做純粹只是逗你們玩,
10:07
But it's more profound深刻 than fun開玩笑.
但其背後的意義卻不只好玩而已。
10:09
I'll give you a good example of how it actually其實 effects效果 persuasion勸說.
我來舉一個例子,讓你們瞭解說服的影響力。
10:13
BMW寶馬 is a pretty漂亮 safe安全 car汽車.
BMW是很安全的車子,
10:16
And they are trying to figure數字 out, "Safety安全 is good.
他們想要瞭解:「我們的安全性很好啊...
10:19
I want to advertise廣告 safety安全. How am I going to advertise廣告 safety安全?"
希望大家都能知道我們的安全性,要怎麼在廣告上呈現安全性呢?」
10:21
"I could give people numbers數字. We do well on crash緊急 tests測試."
「我們就把數據呈現出來吧!我們在撞擊測試中表現得很好!」
10:23
But the truth真相 of the matter is, you look at that car汽車,
但事實上,當你看著那台車,
10:26
it doesn't look like a Volvo沃爾沃,
它就不像Volvo那麼堅固,
10:28
and it doesn't look like a Hummer蜂鳥.
也不像悍馬車那麼堅固。
10:30
So, what I want you to think about for a few少數 minutes分鐘
我要你們花個幾分鐘想一下,
10:32
is: How would you convey傳達 safety安全 of the BMW寶馬? Okay?
要怎麼傳達出BMW的安全性?好嗎?
10:34
So now, while you're thinking思維 about that let's move移動 to a second第二 task任務.
好,在你們想的同時,我們來談第二個主題。
10:37
The second第二 task任務 is fuel汽油 efficiency效率. Okay?
第二個主題是省油,可以嗎?
10:40
Here's這裡的 another另一個 puzzle難題 for all of you.
我要來出另一道難題了,
10:43
One person walks散步 into a car汽車 lot,
有一個人走進一個賣車場,
10:45
and they're thinking思維 about buying購買 this Toyota豐田 Yaris雅力士.
他想要買Toyota Yaris,
10:47
They are saying, "This is 35 miles英里 per gallon加侖. I'm going to do
他說:「這部車每加崙的油可以跑35哩,
10:50
the environmentally環保 right thing, I'm going to buy購買 the Prius普銳斯,
我想要環保一點,就買Prius吧,
10:52
50 miles英里 per gallon加侖."
一加崙可以跑50哩。」
10:54
Another另一個 person walks散步 into the lot,
另一個人也進來這個賣車場,
10:56
and they're about to buy購買 a Hummer蜂鳥, nine miles英里 per gallon加侖,
他想要買悍馬車,要全部配件的豪華精裝版,
10:58
fully充分 loaded, luxury豪華.
每加崙可跑9哩。
11:00
And they say, "You know what? Do I need turbo渦輪? Do I need this heavyweight重量級 car汽車?"
然後他說:「嗯,我需要渦輪引擎嗎?我需要這麼重配備的車嗎?
11:02
I'm going to do something good for the environment環境.
我想要環保一點,
11:06
I'm going to take off some of that weight重量,
把一些配備拿掉,減少重量,
11:08
and I'm going to buy購買 a Hummer蜂鳥 that's 11 miles英里 per gallon加侖."
那麼這台悍馬車就可以每加崙跑11哩了!」
11:10
Which哪一個 one of these people has doneDONE more for the environment環境?
誰對環保的貢獻比較大?
11:13
See, you have a mental心理 model模型.
看吧!你們的直覺心理又在作用了!
11:16
Fifty五十 versus 35, that's a big move移動. Eleven十一 versus nine? Come on.
50對35,進步很多啊!11對9?比不上吧!
11:18
Turns out, go home and do the math數學,
但請你回家好好算一下,你會發現,
11:21
the nine to 11 is a bigger change更改. That person has saved保存 more gallons加侖.
從9進步到11是多大的進步!那個人省下的油其實比較多耶!
11:24
Why? Because we don't care關心 about miles英里 per gallon加侖, we care關心 about
為什麼?因為每一加崙跑幾哩並不重要,重要的是每一哩
11:27
gallons加侖 per mile英里.
需要多少加崙的油!
11:29
Think about how powerful強大 that is if you're trying to encourage鼓勵 fuel汽油 efficiency效率.
想想看,如果你想提倡省油,這將具有多大的效果!
11:31
Miles萬里 per gallon加侖 is the way we present當下 things.
我們目前都是看每一加崙可以跑幾哩,
11:34
If we want to encourage鼓勵 change更改 of behavior行為,
如果我們想要鼓勵大眾改變行為模式,
11:36
gallons加侖 per mile英里 would have far more effectiveness效用.
用每一哩需要多少加崙的油來呈現數據會比較有用。
11:39
Researchers研究人員 have found發現 these type類型 of anomalies異常.
研究人員已經發現有好幾種這類型反常的例子。
11:41
Okay, back to BMW寶馬. What should they do?
好,我們回到BMW,他們應該怎麼做?
11:44
The problem問題 BMW寶馬 faces面孔 is this car汽車 looks容貌 safe安全.
BMW所面對的問題是,這種車看起來很安全,
11:47
This car汽車, which哪一個 is my Mini微型, doesn't look that safe安全.
而這種車,就是我的Mini,看起來則不怎麼安全。
11:50
Here was BMW's寶馬 brilliant輝煌 insight眼光, which哪一個 they embodied體現 into an ad廣告 campaign運動.
BMW想到了一個好點子,他們把這個點子用廣告呈現出來:
11:54
They showed顯示 a BMW寶馬 driving主動 down the street.
一輛BMW行駛在街上,
11:57
There's a truck卡車 on the right. Boxes fall秋季 out of the truck卡車.
有一輛卡車在它的右邊,卡車上的箱子突然掉落,
11:59
The car汽車 swerves轉了個彎 to avoid避免 it, and therefore因此 doesn't get into an accident事故.
BMW卻突然轉向避開了那些箱子,才沒有釀成意外。
12:02
BWMBWM realizes實現 safety安全, in people's人們 minds頭腦, has two components組件.
BMW發現,人們心中所認定的安全性,具有二個要素,
12:07
You can be safe安全 because when you're hit擊中, you survive生存,
第一是在你被撞時你能保有性命,這就叫安全;
12:11
or you can be safe安全 because you avoid避免 accidents事故.
第二則是能避開危險,也叫做安全。
12:15
Remarkably異常 successful成功 campaign運動, but notice注意 the power功率 of it.
這個廣告非常地成功,注意看看它所造成的影響,
12:17
It harnesses吊帶 something you already已經 believe.
它已經改變了你原先的看法。
12:19
Now, even if I persuaded說服了 you to do something,
即使我想說服你去做某件事,
12:22
it's hard sometimes有時 to actually其實 get action行動 as a result結果.
但有時就是很難讓你去採取行動。
12:26
You all probably大概 intended to wake喚醒 up,
大家可能都很想在早上
12:30
I don't know, 6:30, 7 a.m.
大概6:30或7:00起床吧,
12:32
This is a battle戰鬥 we all fight鬥爭 every一切 day,
我們每天早上都為了起床而奮戰,
12:35
along沿 with trying to get to the gym健身房.
也為了要不要上健身房而奮戰。
12:37
Now, this is an example of that battle戰鬥,
這個早起奮戰的例子告訴我們,
12:40
and makes品牌 us realize實現 intentions意圖 don't always translate翻譯 into action行動,
你想要做的事不一定都會去做,
12:43
and so one of the fundamental基本的 challenges挑戰
所以我們面對最基本的挑戰
12:46
is how we would actually其實 do that. OK?
就是該如何讓我們採取行動,對吧?
12:48
So, let me now talk about the last mile英里 problem問題.
好,我們回來談談最後一哩的問題,
12:52
So far, I've been pretty漂亮 negative.
到目前為止,我所談的都很負面,
12:55
I've been trying to show顯示 you the oddities古怪 of human人的 behavior行為.
我告訴了各位人類行為中怪異的一面,
12:58
And I think maybe I'm being存在 too negative.
但我覺得或許自己太悲觀了,
13:01
Maybe it's the diarrhea腹瀉.
或許是痢疾這件事對我造成了這種影響,
13:03
Maybe the last mile英里 problem問題 really should be thought of
也或許我們應該把最後一哩這個問題,
13:05
as the last mile英里 opportunity機會.
當成是一種機會來看待。
13:07
Let's go back to diabetes糖尿病.
我們來看看糖尿病,
13:09
This is a typical典型 insulin胰島素 injection注射.
這是一般的胰島素針劑,
13:11
Now, carrying攜帶 this thing around is complicated複雜.
把這個針劑帶著到處走確實很麻煩,
13:14
You gotta總得 carry攜帶 the bottle瓶子, you gotta總得 carry攜帶 the syringe注射器.
你得帶著藥瓶,還得帶著針筒,
13:17
It's also painful痛苦.
打針還會痛。
13:21
Now, you may可能 think to yourself你自己, "Well, if my eyes眼睛 depended依賴 on it,
你可能會想:「嗯,如果我可能因此而失明,
13:23
you know, I would obviously明顯 use it every一切 day."
我一定會天天注射。」
13:27
But the pain疼痛, the discomfort不舒服,
但是那種痛苦,那種不舒服的感覺,
13:29
you know, paying付款 attention注意, remembering記憶 to put it in your purse錢包
請各位想一想,如果你要出發去長途旅行,
13:31
when you go on a long trip:
你得記得把這些針劑放進皮包裡,
13:33
These are the day-to-day日復一日 of life, and they do pose提出 problems問題.
這些是每天都要做的事,確實造成不少困擾。
13:35
Here is an innovation革新, a design設計 innovation革新.
現在有了新的發明,設計上的創新。
13:39
This is a pen鋼筆, it's called an insulin胰島素 pen鋼筆, preloaded預裝.
這枝筆叫做胰島素筆,事先已填入胰島素,
13:42
The needle is particularly尤其 sharp尖銳.
針頭比一般的更鋒利,
13:46
You just gotta總得 carry攜帶 this thing around.
你只要帶著這枝筆,去到哪裡都方便,
13:47
It's much easier更輕鬆 to use, much less painful痛苦.
而且比原先的針劑容易使用,也比較不會痛。
13:49
Anywhere隨地 between之間 five and 10 percent百分 increase增加 in adherence附著,
只要改用這枝筆,服用胰島素的持續率
13:51
just as a result結果 of this.
就會提升5%到10%。
13:55
That's what I'm talking about as a last mile英里 opportunity機會.
這就是我說的最後一哩的轉機。
13:57
You see, we tend趨向 to think the problem問題 is solved解決了
每次我們解決了科技上的問題,
14:00
when we solve解決 the technology技術 problem問題.
我們就以為問題已經解決了。
14:03
But the human人的 innovation革新, the human人的 problem問題
儘管我們有所創新,但問題還是持續存在,
14:05
still remains遺跡, and that's a great frontier邊境 that we have left.
我們忘了還有許多問題沒有克服。
14:07
This isn't about the biology生物學 of people;
這與人類的生理構造無關,
14:11
this is now about the brains大腦, the psychology心理學 of people,
這完全是由人類的大腦--也就是人類的心理狀況來決定,
14:13
and innovation革新 needs需求 to continue繼續 all the way through通過
創新必須要能夠一路持續到
14:17
the last mile英里.
最後一哩。
14:19
Here's這裡的 another另一個 example of this.
這裡有一個例子,
14:21
This is from a company公司 called Positive Energy能源.
這個公司叫做正向能源(Positive Energy),
14:23
This is about energy能源 efficiency效率.
他們主要研究節能產品。
14:26
We're spending開支 a lot of time on fuel汽油 cells細胞 right now.
我們花了很多時間研究燃料電池,
14:28
What this company公司 does is they send發送 a letter
但這個公司做的只是寄給每個家庭一封信,
14:31
to households that say, "Here's這裡的 your energy能源 use,
上面寫著:「這是你的用電量,
14:33
here's這裡的 your neighbor's鄰居 energy能源 use: You're doing well." Smiley斯邁利 face面對.
這是你鄰居的用電量,你做得不錯。」附上一個笑臉,
14:35
"You're doing worse更差." Frown皺眉.
「你做得比較差。」附上一個苦瓜臉。
14:38
And what they find is just this letter, nothing else其他,
他們發現,光是這封信,
14:40
has a two to three percent百分 reduction減少 in electricity電力 use.
就可以節省2%到3%的用電量。
14:43
And you want to think about the social社會 value of that
我們可以接著想像這件事所帶來的社會效益:
14:45
in terms條款 of carbon offsets偏移, reduced減少 electricity電力,
碳排放量減少了、用電量降低、
14:47
900 million百萬 dollars美元 per year.
一年節省9億美金。
14:49
Why? Because for free自由,
為什麼?因為這封信沒花什麽錢,
14:51
this isn't a new technology技術, this is a letter --
也不是什麼新科技,就只是一封信而已,
14:53
we're getting得到 a Big Bang in behavior行為.
就能對我們的行為產生很大的影響。
14:55
So, how do we tackle滑車 the last mile英里?
那麼,我們該怎麼處理最後一哩這個問題?
14:57
I think this tells告訴 us there is an opportunity機會.
我認為,這個例子讓我們看到了轉機,
15:01
And I think to tackle滑車 it, we need to combine結合
我相信要處理這個問題,我們必得結合
15:04
psychology心理學,
心理層面、
15:06
marketing營銷,
行銷層面、
15:08
art藝術, we've我們已經 seen看到 that.
與藝術層面,就像我們剛才看到的一樣。
15:10
But you know what we need to combine結合 it with?
但你知道這些東西該與什麼結合起來嗎?
15:12
We need to combine結合 this with the scientific科學 method方法.
這些東西必須與科學方法相結合。
15:14
See what's really puzzling令人費解 and frustrating洩氣 about the last mile英里, to me,
對我來說,最後一哩真正難解與困擾人的地方在於,
15:16
is that the first 999 miles英里 are all about science科學.
前面那999哩都是由科學方法來解決。
15:20
No one would say, "Hey, I think this medicine醫學 works作品, go ahead and use it."
沒有人會說:「嘿,我覺得這種藥很有效,讓我們開始用這種藥吧!」
15:23
We have testing測試, we go to the lab實驗室, we try it again, we have refinement精緻.
我們要先進行測試,要進到實驗試裡再試驗個幾次,還得要改良,
15:27
But you know what we do on the last mile英里?
但你知道我們在最後一哩時會怎麼做嗎?
15:29
"Oh, this is a good idea理念. People will like this. Let's put it out there."
「噢,這真是個好主意!大家一定會喜歡的!就開始實施吧!」
15:32
The amount of resources資源 we put in are disparate不同.
我們所投入的資源完全不對等。
15:35
We put billions數十億 of dollars美元 into fuel-efficient省油 technologies技術.
我們在節能科技上投入了數十億元的經費,
15:37
How much are we putting into
但我們又投入了多少經費,
15:40
energy能源 behavior行為 change更改
去開發可靠、有系統、驗證過的方法,
15:42
in a credible可信的, systematic系統的, testing測試 way?
以改變人們使用能源的習慣?
15:44
Now, I think that we're on the verge邊緣 of something big.
現在,我認為我們已經摸到一點邊了,
15:47
We're on the verge邊緣 of a whole整個 new social社會 science科學.
我們已經摸到嶄新社會科學領域的邊了,
15:50
It's a social社會 science科學 that recognizes識別 --
社會科學能幫助我們瞭解,
15:53
much like science科學 recognizes識別 the complexity複雜 of the body身體,
就像科學能幫助我們瞭解人體的奧妙,
15:55
biology生物學 recognizes識別 the complexity複雜 of the body身體 -- we'll recognize認識
或像生物學能幫助我們瞭解人體的奧妙,
15:58
the complexity複雜 of the human人的 mind心神.
社會科學能幫助我們瞭解人類心智的奧妙。
16:00
The careful小心 testing測試, retesting复驗, design設計,
透過嚴謹的測試、再測試和設計,
16:02
are going to open打開 up vistas景觀 of understanding理解,
我們必將開啟認知的大門,讓我們瞭解
16:04
complexities複雜性, difficult things.
複雜、困難的事物;
16:07
And those vistas景觀 will both create創建 new science科學,
這種認知不但會開啟新的科學,
16:09
and fundamental基本的 change更改 in the world世界 as we see it, in the next下一個 hundred years年份.
還會在未來的100年內,徹底顛覆我們所認知的世界。
16:12
All right. Thank you very much.
謝謝各位!
16:16
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
16:18
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: SendhilSendhil, thank you so much.
克里斯.安德森:山迪,謝謝你的演說。
16:20
So, this whole整個 area is so fascinating迷人.
這個領域真的很吸引人!
16:22
I mean, it sometimes有時 feels感覺, listening to behavioral行為的 economists經濟學家
我覺得,有時候聽你們這些行為經濟學家的演說,
16:25
that they are kind of putting into place地點
就像是把行銷技巧以學術理論呈現,
16:28
academically學術上, what great marketers營銷
但傑出的推銷員
16:31
have sort分類 of intuitively直觀地 known已知 for a long time.
早就在無形中運用自如了。
16:33
How much is your field領域 talking to great marketers營銷
在你的研究領域裡,是否曾和傑出的推銷員們
16:36
about their insights見解 into human人的 psychology心理學?
聊過他們對於人類心理的觀察?
16:40
Because they've他們已經 seen看到 it on the ground地面.
我想他們早就瞭然於胸了吧?
16:42
SendhilSendhil MullainathanMullainathan: Yeah, we spend a lot of time talking to marketers營銷,
山迪:對,我們花了很長的時間與推銷員們對話,
16:44
and I think 60 percent百分 of it is exactly究竟 what you say,
我想有60%是被你說中了,
16:46
there are insights見解 to be gleaned收集 there.
他們確實是有些觀察入微的見解值得我們去蒐集,
16:49
Forty四十 percent百分 of it is about what marketing營銷 is.
另外40%則是談論有關推銷的技巧。
16:51
Marketing營銷 is selling銷售 an ad廣告 to a firm公司.
舉例來說,當你要向一家公司推銷一則廣告時,
16:53
So, in some sense, a lot of marketing營銷 is about
有絕大部分的時間,你會去說服那位CEO,
16:58
convincing使人信服 a CEOCEO, "This is a good ad廣告 campaign運動."
告訴他那則廣告的效果會有多好。
17:00
So, there is a little bit of slippage滑移 there.
但這裡面有陷阱,
17:03
That's just a caveat警告. That's different不同 from actually其實 having an effective有效 ad廣告 campaign運動.
你只是告訴他可能有的效果而已,真正的效果一定有所不同,
17:05
And one of the new movements運動 in marketing營銷 is: How do we actually其實
而目前在行銷業界的新課題,就是想辦法
17:09
measure測量 effectiveness效用? Are we effective有效?
去衡量效果,要怎麼確認一個廣告是有效的?
17:11
CACA: How you take your insights見解 here
克里斯:舉例來說,
17:13
and actually其實 get them integrated集成
你要怎麼把你的觀點
17:17
into working加工 business商業 models楷模 on the ground地面,
和印度這裡的企業運作方式
17:20
in Indian印度人 villages村莊, for example?
相結合?
17:23
SMSM: So, the scientific科學 method方法 I alluded暗示 to is pretty漂亮 important重要.
山迪:我剛才所提到的科學方法是很重要的,
17:25
We work closely密切 with companies公司 that have operational操作 capacity容量,
我們和一些具有營運規模的私人企業
17:28
or nonprofits非營利組織 that have operational操作 capacity容量.
及非營利組織緊密合作,
17:30
And then we say, "Well, you want to get this behavior行為 change更改.
我們會說,嗯,如果你想要改變人們的行為,
17:32
Let's come up with a few少數 ideas思路, test測試 them,
我們就來想幾個方法,測試一下,
17:34
see which哪一個 is working加工, go back, synthesize合成,
看哪一個方法有效,回去重組一下,
17:37
and try to come up with a thing that works作品,"
找出最有效的方法,
17:39
and then we're able能夠 to scale規模 with partners夥伴.
才能在其他企業裡面大量推廣。
17:41
It's kind of the model模型 that has worked工作 in other contexts上下文.
就好像其他科學領域的研究人員所做的事情一樣,
17:43
If you have biological生物 problems問題
如果你有生物學上的問題,
17:45
we try and fix固定 it, see if it works作品, and then work the scale規模.
你會想辦法解決,看什麼方法有效,再決定推廣出去。
17:47
CACA: Alright好的 SendhilSendhil, thanks謝謝 so much for coming未來 to TEDTED. Thank you.
克里斯:好的,山迪!謝謝你來TED演講,謝謝!
17:49
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
17:52
Translated by Marie Wu
Reviewed by Wang-Ju Tsai

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About the speaker:

Sendhil Mullainathan - Behavioral economist
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination?

Why you should listen

To study big questions such as "What are the measurable effects of corruption?"" Sendhil Mullainathan and his collaborators look at the day-to-day decisions made by real people, running deep-data studies on groups around the world to tease out patterns. Awarded a MacArthur ""genius"" grant in 2002, he has produced and collaborated on a string of research papers that make for a must-read CV -- including a fascinating, if dispiriting, study of the corruption involved in getting a driver's license in India.

Lately he and his team have been studying women who sell fruit and vegetables on the streets in developing countries. They're usually in debt to a moneylender in the market, who takes about half their profits each day as interest. Some of the women have figured a simple way to get out of debt and keep all their profits. But most of the women make a choice every day that keeps them in debt. How would these businesswomen behave, he wondered, if the slate was wiped clean? So he got a grant, paid off their debt, and waits to see what happens next."

More profile about the speaker
Sendhil Mullainathan | Speaker | TED.com