ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.

Why you should listen

Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.

To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.

In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language InstinctHow the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human NatureThe Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.

More profile about the speaker
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com
TED2007

Steven Pinker: The surprising decline in violence

史蒂芬品克:對暴力的誤解

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史蒂芬品克通過圖表展示從古至今暴力行為使用频率的下降,並且聲稱儘管今天的世界看上去很不太平,伊拉克、富爾達爾等地區更是戰亂不斷,但實際上,現在人類正處於歷史上最和平的時期。
- Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio

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00:25
Images圖片 like this, from the Auschwitz奧斯威辛 concentration濃度 camp,
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像類似這樣的圖片,拍攝於奧斯威辛的集中營,
00:29
have been seared香煎 into our consciousness意識 during the twentieth第二十 century世紀
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在20世紀已深深地絡印在我們的意識中,
00:34
and have given特定 us a new understanding理解 of who we are,
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並且讓我們對自己有新的認識,
00:39
where we've我們已經 come from and the times we live生活 in.
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重新審視我們所處的環境和時代
00:42
During the twentieth第二十 century世紀, we witnessed目擊 the atrocities暴行
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在20世紀裡,我們目睹了
00:46
of Stalin斯大林, Hitler希特勒, Mao, Pol波爾 Pot, Rwanda盧旺達 and other genocides種族滅絕,
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斯大林,希特勒,毛澤東,波爾布特,盧旺達的暴行和其他種族大屠殺,
00:51
and even though雖然 the twenty-first二十一 century世紀 is only seven years年份 old,
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儘管進入21世紀只有7年的時間,
00:55
we have already已經 witnessed目擊 an ongoing不斷的 genocide種族滅絕 in Darfur達爾富爾
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我們已經目睹了正在達爾富爾進行的種族大屠殺
00:59
and the daily日常 horrors恐怖 of Iraq伊拉克.
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和伊拉克頻繁的恐怖襲擊。
01:02
This has led to a common共同 understanding理解 of our situation情況,
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這導致了我們對所處的環境有這樣的認知,
01:05
namely亦即 that modernity現代 has brought us terrible可怕 violence暴力, and perhaps也許
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那就是:"暴力行為是現代化導致的,
01:09
that native本地人 peoples人們 lived生活 in a state of harmony和諧 that we have departed死者 from, to our peril.
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或許原始人還可以和睦共處,而我們已經做到這點了
01:12
Here is an example
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舉個例子來說
01:17
from an op-ed專欄 on Thanksgiving感恩, in the Boston波士頓 Globe地球
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波士頓環球報中的一篇專欄文章
01:20
a couple一對 of years年份 ago, where the writer作家 wrote, "The Indian印度人 life
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幾年前,作家寫道:“印第安人的生活
01:24
was a difficult one, but there were no employment僱用 problems問題,
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非常堅苦,但他們沒有就業的問題,
01:27
community社區 harmony和諧 was strong強大, substance物質 abuse濫用 unknown未知,
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他們的社會和諧有力,沒有人濫用毒品,
01:30
crime犯罪 nearly幾乎 non-existent不存在的, what warfare there was between之間 tribes部落
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幾乎沒有法罪率,即使兩個部落之間有發生戰爭
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was largely大部分 ritualistic儀式 and seldom很少 resulted導致 in indiscriminate
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大部分都是固守儀式的,很少導致部族歧視
01:37
or wholesale批發 slaughter屠宰." Now, you're all familiar with this treacle糖蜜.
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和大屠殺的發生。"現在,大家對這佳話也已經耳熟能詳了。
01:42
We teach it to our children孩子. We hear it on television電視
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我們從電視和故事書得知這些東西,並且我們也是這樣教育兒女。
01:45
and in storybooks故事書. Now, the original原版的 title標題 of this session會議
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好,今天這個講座的主題是
01:50
was, "Everything You Know Is Wrong錯誤," and I'm going to present當下 evidence證據
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"你所知道的都是錯誤的",然後現在我就要出示證據
01:53
that this particular特定 part部分 of our common共同 understanding理解 is wrong錯誤,
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推翻大家原先對暴力的一些錯誤認知
01:56
that, in fact事實, our ancestors祖先 were far more violent暴力 than we are,
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實際上,我們的祖先是比我們暴力許多的,
02:00
that violence暴力 has been in decline下降 for long stretches舒展 of time,
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隨著時間的延繩,暴力出現的頻率才逐漸減少,
02:04
and that today今天 we are probably大概 living活的 in the most peaceful平靜的 time in our species'種類' existence存在.
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我想我們現在很有可能是活在人類最和平的時期
02:07
Now, in the decade of Darfur達爾富爾 and Iraq伊拉克,
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在這個達富爾和伊拉克戰亂的時代
02:12
a statement聲明 like that might威力 seem似乎 somewhere某處 between之間 hallucinatory幻覺
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說這是最和平的時代,聽起來好像天方夜譚
02:15
and obscene猥褻. But I'm going to try to convince說服 you
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但我現在就要像你證明
02:18
that that is the correct正確 picture圖片. The decline下降 of violence暴力
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事實正是如此。暴力頻率的下滑
02:24
is a fractal分形 phenomenon現象. You can see it over millennia千年,
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是呈現不規律的現象。你可以從千年,
02:27
over centuries百年, over decades幾十年 and over years年份,
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百年,十年或年為單位來觀察
02:31
although雖然 there seems似乎 to have been a tipping小費 point at the onset發病
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儘管在16世紀理性時代的初期
02:33
of the Age年齡 of Reason原因 in the sixteenth第十六 century世紀. One sees看到 it
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似乎也存在過一個最高點
02:37
all over the world世界, although雖然 not homogeneously均勻.
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這是世界上普遍的現象,而不是局限於一地
02:41
It's especially特別 evident明顯 in the West西, beginning開始 with England英國
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這種現象在西方尤其明顯,從英國
02:44
and Holland荷蘭 around the time of the Enlightenment啟示.
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和荷蘭大約在啟蒙時代開始
02:47
Let me take you on a journey旅程 of several一些 powers權力 of 10 --
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讓我帶你看看以10為基數
02:51
from the millennium千年 scale規模 to the year scale規模 --
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從以千年為單位到以年為單位
02:53
to try to persuade說服 you of this. Until直到 10,000 years年份 ago, all humans人類
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來嘗試說服你。一直到一萬年以前,所有的人類
02:57
lived生活 as hunter-gatherers狩獵採集, without permanent常駐 settlements定居點
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以打獵維生,沒有固定的聚集地
03:00
or government政府. And this is the state that's commonly常用 thought
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或政府。這個狀態通常被認為是
03:03
to be one of primordial原始 harmony和諧. But the archaeologist考古學家
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原始的和諧狀態。但考古學家
03:09
Lawrence勞倫斯 Keeley基利, looking at casualty受害者 rates利率
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Lawrence Keeley,通過觀察當代狩獵者的死亡率
03:13
among其中 contemporary現代的 hunter-gatherers狩獵採集, which哪一個 is our best最好 source資源
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--這種的生活方式是我們最好的證據來源
03:17
of evidence證據 about this way of life, has shown顯示 a rather different不同 conclusion結論.
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--得出了不同的結論。
03:23
Here is a graph圖形 that he put together一起
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這是他所統計出來的圖表
03:25
showing展示 the percentage百分比 of male deaths死亡 due應有 to warfare
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顯示出在一些遊牧民族中
03:28
in a number of foraging覓食, or hunting狩獵 and gathering蒐集 societies社會.
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男性因戰爭而死所占的比率
03:33
The red bars酒吧 correspond對應 to the likelihood可能性 that a man will die
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紅色條表示男性死於其他人之手的可能性
03:39
at the hands of another另一個 man, as opposed反對 to passing通過 away
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對應於自然死亡
03:42
of natural自然 causes原因, in a variety品種 of foraging覓食 societies社會
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數據來自於新幾內高地和亞馬遜雨林的
03:46
in the New Guinea幾內亞 Highlands高地 and the Amazon亞馬遜 Rainforest雨林.
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許多個遊牧民族。
03:50
And they range範圍 from a rate of almost幾乎 a 60 percent百分 chance機會 that a man will die
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他們成員死於其他人之手的比例接近高達60%
03:53
at the hands of another另一個 man to, in the case案件 of the GebusiGebusi,
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在Gebusi民族中,只有15%。
03:57
only a 15 percent百分 chance機會. The tiny, little blue藍色 bar酒吧 in the lower降低
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在左下角的藍色條
04:01
left-hand左手 corner plots地塊 the corresponding相應 statistic統計 from United聯合的 States狀態
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描繪了20世紀的美國和歐洲
04:05
and Europe歐洲 in the twentieth第二十 century世紀, and includes包括 all the deaths死亡
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相應的數據,還包括了一,二次世界大戰死者。
04:09
of both World世界 Wars戰爭. If the death死亡 rate in tribal部落的 warfare had prevailed盛行
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如果部落戰爭中的死亡率是普通的現象
04:14
during the 20th century世紀, there would have been two billion十億 deaths死亡 rather than 100 million百萬.
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那麼在20世紀,死亡戰爭人數應該是20億而不是1億。
04:20
Also at the millennium千年 scale規模, we can look
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同樣的以千年為單位,我們可以來看看
04:23
at the way of life of early civilizations文明 such這樣 as the ones那些 described描述
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被記錄在聖經早期的文明生活方式
04:28
in the Bible聖經. And in this supposed應該 source資源 of our moral道德 values,
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在聖經這本我們理論上的道德準則中
04:33
one can read descriptions說明 of what was expected預期 in warfare,
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我們可以看到當中對於戰爭行為的描述,
04:37
such這樣 as the following以下 from Numbers數字 31: "And they warred爭戰
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好比民數記31中記載道"他們就照著
04:40
against反對 the Midianites米甸人 as the Lord commanded指揮 Moses摩西,
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耶和華所吩咐摩西的與米甸人打戰,
04:43
and they slew all the males男性. And Moses摩西 said unto them,
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他們把男丁都殺光。然後摩西對他們說,
04:46
'Have you saved保存 all the women婦女 alive? Now, therefore因此, kill every一切 male
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"你們讓女人都活下來了嗎?因此,現在你們要把所有的男性
04:50
among其中 the little ones那些 and kill every一切 woman女人 that hath哈斯 known已知 man
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和已經出嫁的女性都殺了
04:53
by lying說謊 with him, but all the women婦女 children孩子 that have not know a man
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但在女性中,凡還沒出嫁的,
04:57
by lying說謊 with him keep alive for yourselves你自己.'" In other words,
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你們都可以把她們留下來。"換句話說,
05:00
kill the men男人; kill the children孩子; if you see any virgins處女,
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殺掉男人,殺掉小孩,但如果看到少女
05:05
then you can keep them alive so that you can rape強姦 them.
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你就可以留下活口然後佔有她們。
05:08
You can find four or five passages通道 in the Bible聖經 of this ilk之流.
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在聖經中你可以看到4,5段類似這樣的記錄。
05:12
Also in the Bible聖經, one sees看到 that the death死亡 penalty罰款
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同樣的死刑在聖經
05:15
was the accepted公認 punishment懲罰 for crimes犯罪 such這樣 as homosexuality同性戀,
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是可接受的懲罰方式例如對於同性戀,
05:20
adultery通姦, blasphemy褻瀆的話, idolatry偶像崇拜, talking back to your parents父母 --
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通姦,褻瀆,盲目崇拜,說父母壞話--
05:24
(Laughter笑聲) -- and picking選擇 up sticks on the Sabbath安息日.
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(笑聲)--在安息日勞動等罪行。
05:28
Well, let's click點擊 the zoom放大 lens鏡片
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好的,讓我們放大一格
05:31
down one order訂購 of magnitude大小, and look at the century世紀 scale規模.
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來觀察一下以世紀為單位的數據。
05:34
Although雖然 we don't have statistics統計 for warfare throughout始終
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儘管我們沒有所有
05:39
the Middle中間 Ages時代 to modern現代 times,
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從中世紀到現代戰爭的數據
05:40
we know just from conventional常規 history歷史 -- the evidence證據
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我們僅用現有的歷史--
05:43
was under our nose鼻子 all along沿 that there has been a reduction減少
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有關這樣的數據一直近在眼前:
05:47
in socially社交上 sanctioned制裁 forms形式 of violence暴力.
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人類社會所支持的暴力行為一直在減少
05:50
For example, any social社會 history歷史 will reveal揭示 that mutilation斷肢 and torture拷打
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例如,文明史都有記錄截肢和酷刑
05:54
were routine常規 forms形式 of criminal刑事 punishment懲罰. The kind of infraction侵害
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是常見的罪行懲罰方式。
05:57
today今天 that would give you a fine, in those days would result結果 in
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如今只能讓你被罰款的違法,在過去可能會導致
06:01
your tongue being存在 cut out, your ears耳朵 being存在 cut off, you being存在 blinded失明,
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你被割舌,割耳,挖眼,
06:05
a hand being存在 chopped切碎的 off and so on.
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斬手等結果
06:07
There were numerous眾多 ingenious巧妙 forms形式 of sadistic虐待狂 capital首都 punishment懲罰:
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世界各地有無數中變態的斬首方式:
06:12
burning燃燒 at the stake賭注, disembowelingdisemboweling, breaking破壞 on the wheel,
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捆在木上燒,開膛破肚,車裂,
06:15
being存在 pulled apart距離 by horses馬匹 and so on.
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五馬分屍等等。
06:18
The death死亡 penalty罰款 was a sanction制裁 for a long list名單 of non-violent非暴力 crimes犯罪:
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而准予處以死刑的非暴力罪行有很長的列表:
06:22
criticizing批評 the king國王, stealing偷竊行為 a loaf麵包 of bread麵包. Slavery奴隸制度, of course課程,
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比如批評國王,偷麵包。當然,奴隸制,
06:27
was the preferred首選 labor-saving省力 device設備, and cruelty殘酷 was
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是種理想的節約勞力的制度,而殘酷的行為則被認為
06:31
a popular流行 form形成 of entertainment娛樂. Perhaps也許 the most vivid生動 example
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是一種流行的娛樂方式。或許最生動的例子
06:34
was the practice實踐 of cat burning燃燒, in which哪一個 a cat was hoisted懸掛
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就是火燒貓的行為,貓在平台上吊被起來
06:37
on a stage階段 and lowered降低 in a sling吊繩 into a fire,
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通過吊索慢慢放入火中,
06:40
and the spectators觀眾 shrieked尖細 in laughter笑聲 as the cat, howling嚎叫 in pain疼痛,
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圍觀的人發出愉悅的尖叫聲,而貓在火中痛苦地嚎叫,
06:46
was burned to death死亡.
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直到死亡。
06:48
What about one-on-one一對一 murder謀殺? Well, there, there are good statistics統計,
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那麼有關於一對一凶殺呢?這裡有很好的統計資料,
06:51
because many許多 municipalities直轄市 recorded記錄 the cause原因 of death死亡.
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因為當時市政當局都記錄了死因。
06:57
The criminologist犯罪學家 Manuel曼努埃爾 Eisner艾斯納
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犯罪學家Manuel Eisner
07:02
scoured搜羅 all of the historical歷史的 records記錄 across橫過 Europe歐洲
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整理了歐洲所有的歷史紀錄
07:04
for homicide殺人 rates利率 in any village, hamlet村莊, town, county
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涉及到他所能找到的鄉,村,鎮,縣
07:09
that he could find, and he supplemented輔以 them
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然後他綜合了
07:11
with national國民 data數據, when nations國家 started開始 keeping保持 statistics統計.
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有數據以來的所有國家數據
07:15
He plotted繪製 on a logarithmic對數的 scale規模, going from 100 deaths死亡
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他用對數表示,從每年每十萬人有一百人死亡
07:22
per 100,000 people per year, which哪一個 was approximately the rate
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,略等於中世紀的兇殺案發生率。
07:28
of homicide殺人 in the Middle中間 Ages時代. And the figure數字 plummets驟降 down
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然後數據降低到了
07:33
to less than one homicide殺人 per 100,000 people per year
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每年每十萬人中少於一例死亡率
07:38
in seven or eight European歐洲的 countries國家. Then, there is a slight輕微 uptick上揚
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在七到八個歐洲國家。然後再1960年代稍有上漲。
07:42
in the 1960s. The people who said that rock 'n''N' roll would lead
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那部分說搖滾導致道德淪失的人
07:46
to the decline下降 of moral道德 values actually其實 had a grain糧食 of truth真相 to that.
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確實是有一定的道理。
07:50
But there was a decline下降 from at least最小 two orders命令 of magnitude大小
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但謀殺率數據至少減少有兩個數量級
07:54
in homicide殺人 from the Middle中間 Ages時代 to the present當下,
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從中世紀到現在,
07:57
and the elbow彎頭 occurred發生 in the early sixteenth第十六 century世紀.
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數據拐角出現在16世紀初期。
08:02
Let's click點擊 down now to the decade scale規模.
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接下來以十年為單位來觀察。
08:04
According根據 to non-governmental民間 organizations組織
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根據一些非政府組織的相關數據
08:07
that keep such這樣 statistics統計, since以來 1945, in Europe歐洲 and the Americas美洲,
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從1945年起,在歐洲和美洲
08:11
there has been a steep decline下降 in interstate州際 wars戰爭,
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的國家之間的戰爭,
08:15
in deadly致命 ethnic民族 riots暴動 or pogroms大屠殺, and in military軍事 coups政變,
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嚴重的種族暴亂和軍事政變的數量急遽減少
08:19
even in South America美國. Worldwide全世界, there's been a steep decline下降
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甚至連南美洲也是如此。全球普遍上,因國家之間的戰爭的死亡數量急遽減少
08:23
in deaths死亡 in interstate州際 wars戰爭. The yellow黃色 bars酒吧 here show顯示 the number
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這裡的黃色條顯示
08:29
of deaths死亡 per war戰爭 per year from 1950 to the present當下.
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從1950年到現在每年每場戰爭的死亡數量。
08:34
And, as you can see, the death死亡 rate goes down from 65,000 deaths死亡
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正如你所見,死亡數從原先1950年的每年每場戰爭的65,000例
08:38
per conflict衝突 per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 deaths死亡
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減少至近十年每年每場戰爭的的2,000例死亡,
08:42
per conflict衝突 per year in this decade, as horrific可怕的 as it is.
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儘管這些戰爭都很殘酷。
08:46
Even in the year scale規模, one can see a decline下降 of violence暴力.
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就算是以年的單位也能看出暴力行為的減少
08:50
Since以來 the end結束 of the Cold War戰爭, there have been fewer civil國內 wars戰爭,
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自從冷戰結束,內戰就很少再發生,
08:53
fewer genocides種族滅絕 -- indeed確實, a 90 percent百分 reduction減少 since以來 post-World後世界 War戰爭 IIII highs高位 --
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種族殘殺幾乎絕跡--其實,數據從二戰之後的最高點降低了90%--
08:59
and even a reversal翻轉 of the 1960s uptick上揚 in homicide殺人 and violent暴力 crime犯罪.
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即使在60年代凶殺率的暴力有稍微回升。
09:05
This is from the FBI聯邦調查局 Uniform制服 Crime犯罪 Statistics統計. You can see
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這是聯邦調查局的數據統計:你可以看到
09:09
that there is a fairly相當 low rate of violence暴力 in the '50s and the '60s,
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在50年代和60年代暴力行為發生率相對較低
09:13
then it soared飆升 upward向上 for several一些 decades幾十年, and began開始
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經過幾十年的上升然後開始
09:17
a precipitous陡峭 decline下降, starting開始 in the 1990s, so that it went back
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從90年代急速的下降,一直回到
09:21
to the level水平 that was last enjoyed享受 in 1960.
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將近60年代的水平
09:25
President主席 Clinton克林頓, if you're here, thank you.
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柯林頓總統,如果您在這裡,我對您說聲謝謝。
09:27
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:29
So the question is, why are so many許多 people so wrong錯誤
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所以問題是:為什麼這麼多的人對於如此重大的問題都持有錯誤觀念?
09:32
about something so important重要? I think there are a number of reasons原因.
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我想原因很多。
09:36
One of them is we have better reporting報告. The Associated關聯的 Press
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其一我們有了更多的媒體報導。"美聯社
09:39
is a better chronicler編年史 of wars戰爭 over the surface表面 of the Earth地球
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比起16世紀的僧人
09:43
than sixteenth-century十六世紀 monks和尚 were.
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是地球上更好的戰爭編年體的作者。"
09:47
There's a cognitive認知 illusion錯覺. We cognitive認知 psychologists心理學家 know that the easier更輕鬆 it is
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還有一個認知的幻覺:認知的心理學家都知道
09:52
to recall召回 specific具體 instances實例 of something,
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曝光率越高的事
09:55
the higher更高 the probability可能性 that you assign分配 to it.
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越容易勾起你的具體回憶。
09:58
Things that we read about in the paper with gory血腥 footage鏡頭
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我們每天閱讀報紙中血淋淋的描寫
10:02
burn燒傷 into memory記憶 more than reports報告 of a lot more people dying垂死
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這對我們記憶的影響遠遠大於
10:06
in their beds of old age年齡. There are dynamics動力學 in the opinion意見
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大部分人是在病床上自然老死的事實。
10:12
and advocacy擁護 markets市場: no one ever attracted吸引 observers觀察家, advocates倡導者
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群衆意見導向和市場宣傳上有這樣的論調:
10:17
and donors捐助者 by saying
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說"事情看來變得越來越好。"是不能引起觀察家,擁護者
10:19
things just seem似乎 to be getting得到 better and better.
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和捐助者們的注意的
10:21
(Laughter笑聲)
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(眾笑)
10:22
There's guilt有罪 about our treatment治療 of native本地人 peoples人們
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在這文明的社會裡處理原住民問題的過失
10:25
in modern現代 intellectual知識分子 life, and an unwillingness不願意 to acknowledge確認
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使我們普遍覺得很內疚,以致不情願承認
10:28
there could be anything good about Western西 culture文化.
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關於西方文化一些好的方面。
10:31
And of course課程, our change更改 in standards標準 can outpace超過 the change更改
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當然,我們在標準上的改變可以領先行為上的該變。
10:36
in behavior行為. One of the reasons原因 violence暴力 went down
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暴力行為下降的原因之一
10:39
is that people got sick生病 of the carnage大屠殺 and cruelty殘酷 in their time.
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是因爲人們對大屠殺和殘忍性已經感到厭倦了。
10:42
That's a process處理 that seems似乎 to be continuing繼續,
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在行爲上看起來還是個正在進行中的改變,
10:45
but if it outstrips超過了 behavior行為 by the standards標準 of the day,
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但如果標準認知上的改變超過行為上的改變,
10:49
things always look more barbaric野蠻 than they would have been
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在歷史上看來事情永遠比以前更野蠻
10:52
by historic歷史性 standards標準. So today今天, we get exercised行使 -- and rightly正當地 so --
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所以,今天,我們受到訓練--很應該地--
10:56
if a handful少數 of murderers殺人犯 get executed執行 by lethal致命 injection注射
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如果一小撮殺人犯在德州經過15年的上訴程序
11:02
in Texas德州 after a 15-year-年 appeal上訴 process處理. We don't consider考慮
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被判以注射死刑的懲罰。我們不會去想
11:07
that a couple一對 of hundred years年份 ago, they may可能 have been burned
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在幾百年前,只因為他們批評了國王
11:10
at the stake賭注 for criticizing批評 the king國王 after a trial審訊
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在經過10分鐘的審判後
11:13
that lasted歷時 10 minutes分鐘, and indeed確實, that that would have been repeated重複
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他們會被處以火刑--的卻,那種情形很可能會重複發生
11:16
over and over again. Today今天, we look at capital首都 punishment懲罰
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今天我們把極刑看成
11:21
as evidence證據 of how low our behavior行為 can sink水槽,
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我們行為淪落程度的證據,
11:24
rather than how high our standards標準 have risen上升.
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而不是我們行為標準的進化。
11:28
Well, why has violence暴力 declined下降? No one really knows知道,
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那麼,為什麼暴力行為下降了?沒有人知道,
11:31
but I have read four explanations說明, all of which哪一個, I think,
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但是我讀過4種解釋,它們都是我認為
11:36
have some grain糧食 of plausibility合理性. The first is, maybe
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都是比較可信的。第一種解釋是:
11:39
Thomas托馬斯 Hobbes霍布斯 got it right. He was the one who said
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或許Thomas Hobbes是對的。他說過
11:42
that life in a state of nature性質 was "solitary, poor較差的, nasty討厭, brutish野蠻
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自然狀態下生命是"孤獨,貧窮,骯髒,野蠻
11:47
and short." Not because, he argued爭論,
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和短暫的。"不是因為
11:51
humans人類 have some primordial原始 thirst口渴 for blood血液
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人們有著對血腥行為,
11:54
or aggressive侵略性 instinct直覺 or territorial領土的 imperative勢在必行,
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侵略性或領土保護的原始本能,
11:58
but because of the logic邏輯 of anarchy無政府狀態. In a state of anarchy無政府狀態,
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而是因為無政府狀態的邏輯性。在無政府的狀態下,
12:01
there's a constant不變 temptation誘惑 to invade入侵 your neighbors鄰居 preemptively先發製人,
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在你鄰居侵犯你之前,先下手為強是無可避免的趨勢
12:05
before they invade入侵 you. More recently最近, Thomas托馬斯 Schelling謝林
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最近Thomas Schelling
12:08
gives the analogy比喻 of a homeowner房主 who hears就听 a rustling沙沙
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做了以下比喻:一個房東聽到地下室有沙沙的聲音
12:11
in the basement地下室. Being存在 a good American美國, he has a pistol手槍
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做為一位美國好公民,他的床頭櫃裡有一把手槍
12:13
in the nightstand床頭櫃上, pulls out his gun, and walks散步 down the stairs樓梯.
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於是他裝上子彈,走下樓梯
12:17
And what does he see but a burglar竊賊 with a gun in his hand.
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然後他看到盜賊拿著一把手槍
12:20
Now, each one of them is thinking思維,
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他們倆個都在想
12:21
"I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.
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"如果我不殺了他,就是他殺了我。"
12:25
Maybe I had better shoot射擊 him, before he shoots me,
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或許在他幹掉我之前,我得先下為強
12:29
especially特別 since以來, even if he doesn't want to kill me,
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特別是,就算他沒有打算殺我
12:31
he's probably大概 worrying令人擔憂 right now that I might威力 kill him
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他現在很可能會認為在他幹掉我之前,我會先把他幹掉。"
12:34
before he kills殺死 me." And so on.
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等等...
12:37
Hunter-gatherer狩獵採集 peoples人們 explicitly明確地 go through通過 this train培養 of thought,
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狩獵為生的人們經過這樣明確的思考,
12:42
and will often經常 raid襲擊 their neighbors鄰居 out of fear恐懼 of being存在 raided搜查 first.
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通常會因為擔心自己先被幹掉而先幹掉他們的鄰居
12:47
Now, one way of dealing交易 with this problem問題 is by deterrence威懾.
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如今,解決這個問題唯一的方法是通過威懾:
12:50
You don't strike罷工 first, but you have a publicly公然 announced公佈 policy政策
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你不先進攻,但是你先公開宣稱
12:55
that you will retaliate報復 savagely野蠻 if you are invaded入侵.
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如果你受到侵犯,你將會進行野蠻的報復
12:58
The only thing is that it's
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這樣宣稱唯一的事情是
13:00
liable容易 to having its bluff虛張聲勢 called, and therefore因此 can only work
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很可能被稱為虛張聲勢,所以只有在可信的情況下進行才變得可能
13:05
if it's credible可信的. To make it credible可信的, you must必須 avenge報仇 all insults侮辱
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為了使其變得有可能,你必須報復所有的侵犯
13:10
and settle解決 all scores分數, which哪一個 leads引線 to the cycles週期 of bloody血腥 vendetta仇殺.
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和擺平所有的恩怨,但這又會導致血腥復仇的惡性循環
13:14
Life becomes an episode插曲 of "The Sopranos黑道家族." Hobbes'霍布斯 solution,
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人生就會變成像電視劇"黑道家族"。Hobbes的解決方案為
13:19
the "Leviathan利維坦," was that if authority權威 for the legitimate合法 use
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如果對暴力行為,權力的合法使用
13:23
of violence暴力 was vested既得利益 in a single democratic民主的 agency機構 -- a leviathan利維坦 --
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是屬於一個單一的民主結構-- 一個權力巨獸 --
13:29
then such這樣 a state can reduce減少 the temptation誘惑 of attack攻擊,
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那麽這樣一個國家就能降低攻擊的誘惑性,
13:32
because any kind of aggression侵略 will be punished處罰,
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因為任何一種侵犯都會受到懲罰,
13:35
leaving離開 its profitability盈利能力 as zero. That would remove去掉 the temptation誘惑
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使進攻的好處變為零。那就會消除因為擔心他人會先幹掉你
13:40
to invade入侵 preemptively先發製人, out of fear恐懼 of them attacking進攻 you first.
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而造成你先下手為強的誘惑性。
13:44
It removes移除了 the need for a hair頭髮 trigger觸發 for retaliation報復
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同時也消除了為了使你的威懾變為可信立即報復的需要。
13:48
to make your deterrent威懾 threat威脅 credible可信的. And therefore因此, it would lead
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因此,這可以為
13:51
to a state of peace和平. Eisner艾斯納 -- the man who plotted繪製 the homicide殺人 rates利率
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一個國家帶來和平。Eisner--那個在之前的幻燈片裏
13:57
that you failed失敗 to see in the earlier slide滑動 --
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統計你看不到的凶殺率的人 ——
14:00
argued爭論 that the timing定時 of the decline下降 of homicide殺人 in Europe歐洲
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他主張歐洲凶殺率下降的那個時期
14:04
coincided恰逢 with the rise上升 of centralized集中 states狀態.
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剛好是中央集權的崛起。
14:08
So that's a bit of a support支持 for the leviathan利維坦 theory理論.
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那是對權力巨獸理論的小證明。
14:11
Also supporting支持 it is the fact事實 that we today今天 see eruptions爆發 of violence暴力
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同時支持這理論的還有我們今天看到無政府狀態
14:15
in zones of anarchy無政府狀態, in failed失敗 states狀態, collapsed倒塌 empires帝國,
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爆發的暴力行為:在失勢的國家,崩潰的帝國,
14:19
frontier邊境 regions地區, mafias黑手黨, street gangs幫派 and so on.
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邊境地區,黑手黨,街頭幫派等等。
14:25
The second第二 explanation說明 is that in many許多 times and places地方,
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第二種解釋是在很多的時空情境下
14:28
there is a widespread廣泛 sentiment情緒 that life is cheap低廉.
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有人命本賤的看法。
14:32
In earlier times, when suffering痛苦 and early death死亡 were common共同
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在早期,當痛苦和早逝對於一個人是很平凡的事的時候
14:36
in one's那些 own擁有 life, one has fewer compunctions內疚 about inflicting造成 them
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人們對於造成他人受苦或死亡的內疚感就不會強烈。
14:40
on others其他. And as technology技術 and economic經濟 efficiency效率 make life
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當科技和經濟有效地使我們的生命
14:44
longer and more pleasant愉快, one puts看跌期權 a higher更高 value on life in general一般.
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延長並且更愉快,人們普遍上對於生命會有更高的評價。
14:48
This was an argument論據 from the political政治 scientist科學家 James詹姆士 Payne佩恩.
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這是政治學家James Payne的論點。
14:52
A third第三 explanation說明 invokes所調用 the concept概念 of a nonzero-sum非零和 game遊戲,
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第三種解釋用了"非零和遊戲"的概念
14:56
and was worked工作 out in the book "Nonzero非零" by the journalist記者
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在記者Robert Wright的<非零>的一書中有提到。
15:00
Robert羅伯特 Wright賴特. Wright賴特 points out that in certain某些 circumstances情況,
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Wright指出在某些的情況下
15:04
cooperation合作 or non-violence非暴力 can benefit效益 both parties派對
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合作,包括非暴力的,能使雙方互利的,
15:07
in an interaction相互作用, such這樣 as gains收益 in trade貿易 when two parties派對 trade貿易
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比如交易的所得,當雙方交換
15:13
their surpluses盈餘 and both come out ahead, or when two parties派對
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他們的盈餘然後雙方最後都以贏利告終,或者當雙方
15:17
lay鋪設 down their arms武器 and split分裂 the so-called所謂 peace和平 dividend股利
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放下武器然後分賍所謂的和平利得
15:20
that results結果 in them not having to fight鬥爭 the whole整個 time.
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這將會使他們從此不會發生戰爭。
15:24
Wright賴特 argues主張 that technology技術 has increased增加 the number
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Wright認爲科技提升了"正和遊戲"的籌碼,
15:26
of positive-sum正和 games遊戲 that humans人類 tend趨向 to be embroiled捲入 in,
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因爲科技的發達使得
15:31
by allowing允許 the trade貿易 of goods產品, services服務 and ideas思路
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貨物、服務和思想能在更長時間的、距離上
15:34
over longer distances距離 and among其中 larger groups of people.
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和更多的人交流
15:38
The result結果 is that other people become成為 more valuable有價值 alive than dead,
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結果是人們活著比死去更有用,
15:41
and violence暴力 declines下降 for selfish自私 reasons原因. As Wright賴特 put it,
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因為自私的原因,暴力行為下降了。如Wright所說,
15:47
"Among其中 the many許多 reasons原因 that I think that we should not bomb炸彈
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"我認為我們不應該轟炸日本的眾多原因之一是
15:49
the Japanese日本 is that they built內置 my mini-van微型麵包車."
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他們生産了我的多功能休旅車。"
15:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(眾笑)
15:54
The fourth第四 explanation說明 is captured捕獲 in the title標題 of a book
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第四種解釋是取自一本書的標題
15:58
called "The Expanding擴大 Circle," by the philosopher哲學家 Peter彼得 Singer歌手,
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它叫做<擴張的圈子>,由哲學家Peter Singer所寫,
16:02
who argues主張 that evolution演化 bequeathed遺贈 humans人類 with a sense
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他認爲進化帶給人類相同的感情:
16:05
of empathy同情, an ability能力 to treat對待 other peoples'人們' interests利益
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一種將他人利益的換做為
16:10
as comparable可比 to one's那些 own擁有. Unfortunately不幸, by default默認
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自己利益的能力。不幸地,在默認的狀態下
16:14
we apply應用 it only to a very narrow狹窄 circle of friends朋友 and family家庭.
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我們將這種能力侷限於只有朋友和家人一個很窄很窄的圈子。
16:18
People outside that circle are treated治療 as sub-human分人,
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在圈外的人們被當作是次等人,
16:21
and can be exploited利用 with impunity有罪不罰. But, over history歷史,
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然後他們可以隨便地被利用。但是經過時間的變遷,
16:25
the circle has expanded擴大. One can see, in historical歷史的 record記錄,
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圈子已經擴張了。可以看見的事,在歷史紀錄中,
16:29
it expanding擴大 from the village, to the clan氏族, to the tribe部落,
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它從鄉村,擴展到氏族,擴張到部落,
16:33
to the nation國家, to other races比賽, to both sexes兩性,
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擴張到國家,擴展到其他種族,擴展到異性
16:36
and, in Singer's辛格 own擁有 arguments參數, something that we should extend延伸
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並且,在 Singer自己的論點中,擴展到一些
16:38
to other sentient有情 species種類. The question is,
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其他我們應該有感情的物種上。問題是,
16:43
if this has happened發生, what has powered動力 that expansion擴張?
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如果這種情況實現了,是甚麼驅使這種擴張?
16:46
And there are a number of possibilities可能性, such這樣 as increasing增加 circles
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然後這有很多種可能。在這個意義上增加
16:49
of reciprocity互惠 in the sense that Robert羅伯特 Wright賴特 argues主張 for.
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Robert Wright所認為的互惠圈
16:54
The logic邏輯 of the golden金色 rule規則 -- the more you think about and interact相互作用
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這個黃金法則的邏輯是:你越為他人著想
16:58
with other people, the more you realize實現 that it is untenable站不住腳的
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越同他人交流,你將越意識到把你的利益
17:02
to privilege特權 your interests利益 over theirs他們的,
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凌駕在他人之上是站不住腳的,
17:06
at least最小 not if you want them to listen to you. You can't say
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至少在你希望他們聽你的時候是這樣的。你不能說
17:09
that my interests利益 are special特別 compared相比 to yours你的,
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我的利益比你的利益更重要,
17:12
anymore than you can say that the particular特定 spot
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你再也不能說,你說你站在的那個地方
17:15
that I'm standing常設 on is a unique獨特 part部分 of the universe宇宙
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是宇宙中獨特的一個地方
17:18
because I happen發生 to be standing常設 on it that very minute分鐘.
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因為這是剛巧你在那個時刻站在那個地方。
17:21
It may可能 also be powered動力 by cosmopolitanism世界主義, by histories歷史,
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也有可能是世界主義所造成的擴張:根據歷史
17:25
and journalism新聞學, and memoirs回憶錄, and realistic實際 fiction小說, and travel旅行,
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新聞,回憶錄,現實小說,旅行
17:29
and literacy讀寫能力, which哪一個 allows允許 you to project項目 yourself你自己 into the lives生活
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以及文學,這些讓你將你自己融入
17:33
of other people that formerly以前 you may可能 have treated治療 as sub-human分人,
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那些你先前認為是次等人的生活,
17:37
and also to realize實現 the accidental偶然 contingency偶然性 of your own擁有 station
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同時意識到你自己在生命中的偶然性
17:41
in life, the sense that "there but for fortune幸運 go I."
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那種"聽天由命"的感覺
17:46
Whatever隨你 its causes原因, the decline下降 of violence暴力, I think,
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無論是甚麼原因,暴力的下降
17:49
has profound深刻 implications啟示. It should force us to ask not just, why
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具有深刻的影響。它應該迫使我們不只是問"為甚麼
17:53
is there war戰爭? But also, why is there peace和平? Not just,
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會有戰爭?"而是要問"為什麼有和平?"而不只是
17:58
what are we doing wrong錯誤? But also, what have we been doing right?
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"我們做錯了甚麼?"而是"我們做對了甚麼?"
18:02
Because we have been doing something right,
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因為我們曾經做對了某些事情,
18:04
and it sure would be good to find out what it is.
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而把這些作對的事找出來是一定有好處的。
18:06
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝大家。
18:07
(Applause掌聲).
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(掌聲)。
18:18
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: I loved喜愛 that talk. I think a lot of people here in the room房間 would say
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Chris Anderson:我很喜愛這個講座會。我認為在這裡的人都會說
18:22
that that expansion擴張 of -- that you were talking about,
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那個擴張--你說講到的那個,
18:25
that Peter彼得 Singer歌手 talks會談 about, is also driven驅動 by, just by technology技術,
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那個Peter Singer所說的,同時也是因為科技,
18:28
by greater更大 visibility能見度 of the other, and the sense that the world世界
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因為其他人的可見性,因為對世界的感知
18:32
is therefore因此 getting得到 smaller. I mean, is that also a grain糧食 of truth真相?
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使得一切變小了。我的意思是說,也是有些道理吧?
18:36
Steven史蒂芬 Pinker平克: Very much. It would fit適合 both in Wright's賴特 theory理論,
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Steven Pinker:非常有道理。這符合Wright的理論,
18:40
that it allows允許 us to enjoy請享用 the benefits好處 of cooperation合作
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引許我們享受合作的利益
18:44
over larger and larger circles. But also, I think it helps幫助 us
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在一個更大更闊的圈子。當然,我認為它幫助我們
18:49
imagine想像 what it's like to be someone有人 else其他. I think when you read
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想像這對於他人,它又是甚麼。我認為當你讀到
18:52
these horrific可怕的 tortures折磨 that were common共同 in the Middle中間 Ages時代, you think,
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一些在中世紀很常見的那些恐怖的遭遇,你會想
18:55
how could they possibly或者 have doneDONE it,
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他們怎麼能做出這樣的事情,
18:57
how could they have not have empathized同情態度 with the person
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他們怎麼能不同情被他們殘害的人
19:00
that they're disembowelingdisemboweling? But clearly明確地,
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但很明顯的事,
19:03
as far as they're concerned關心, this is just an alien外僑 being存在
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對於他們而言,他們就只是個外星人
19:06
that does not have feelings情懷 akin類似的 to their own擁有. Anything, I think,
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不會對他們有任何感情。任何事情,我認為,
19:09
that makes品牌 it easier更輕鬆 to imagine想像 trading貿易 places地方
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能將想像與他人互換立場變成更容易的事情
19:12
with someone有人 else其他 means手段 that it increases增加 your moral道德 consideration考慮
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這意味著它能夠增強
19:15
to that other person.
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你對他人的道德心。
19:16
CACA: Well, Steve史蒂夫, I would love every一切 news新聞 media媒體 owner所有者 to hear that talk
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CA: 非常好, Steve,我希望每個新聞媒體的持有人在明年的時候都有聽到你的講座
19:20
at some point in the next下一個 year. I think it's really important重要. Thank you so much.
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我覺得這太重要了。非常感謝你。
19:22
SPSP: My pleasure樂趣.
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SP: 這是我的榮幸。
Translated by Ka Han Teoh
Reviewed by Wang-Ju Tsai

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.

Why you should listen

Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.

To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.

In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language InstinctHow the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human NatureThe Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.

More profile about the speaker
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com