ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander MacDonald - Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities.

Why you should listen

Alexander MacDonald founded NASA's Emerging Space Office, helps build small satellite programs around the world, and is the author of The Long Space Age. He is an economist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and is currently assigned to serve as the Senior Economic Advisor at NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C.

MacDonald is the author and editor of a number of NASA reports including "Emerging Space: The Evolving Landscape of 21st Century American Spaceflight," "Public-Private Partnerships for Space Capability Development" and "Economic Development of Low-Earth Orbit." He also led the development of "A Strategy for Human Spaceflight in Low Earth Orbit and Economic Growth in Space," submitted to the National Space Council in 2018 by NASA, the Department of State and the Department of Commerce. And he helped develop the NASA strategy for the 2016 Presidential Transition. He is an advocate for the use of small satellites -- cubesats -- for technical and capacity development throughout the world, having helped initiate cubesat projects in Lithuania and Kyrgyzstan and having helped establish nationwide cubesat initiatives in the US and Canada.  
 
MacDonald was a research faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University and worked for the Universities Space Research Association while at NASA's Ames Research Center where he worked on small satellite mission designs and served as the center's first research economist on staff. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from Queen's University in Canada, his master's degree in economics from the University of British Columbia and was a Clarendon Scholar at the University of Oxford, where he obtained his doctorate on the long-run economic history of American space exploration. He was also an inaugural TED Senior Fellow and received the History Manuscript of the Year Award in 2016 from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

More profile about the speaker
Alexander MacDonald | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxAuckland

Alexander MacDonald: How centuries of sci-fi sparked spaceflight

亞力山大•麥唐諾: 科幻小說如何啟發我們登上月球

Filmed:
1,642,075 views

在我們有火箭科學家之前,太空旅行的想法就已經在人們之間流傳過久遠的世代。TED 研究員及美國太空總署經濟學家亞力山大•麥唐諾用很棒的視覺輔助資訊,帶大家看三百年的科幻故事——從艾倫坡,到朱爾•凡爾納,到 H. G. 威爾等等——是如何觸發太空探索的文化,了解故事是怎麼實現的,情節還包括了登月的野鵝機器。
- Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I want to tell you a story故事 about stories故事.
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我想要跟各位說
一個關於故事的故事。
我之所以想要說這個故事,
是因為我認為我們得要記住,
00:17
And I want to tell you this story故事
because I think we need to remember記得
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00:21
that sometimes有時 the stories故事
we tell each other
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我們告訴彼此的故事
00:23
are more than just tales故事
or entertainment娛樂 or narratives敘事.
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有時候不只是傳說、娛樂,
或闡述某事而已。
00:28
They're also vehicles汽車
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它們也是媒介,
00:30
for sowing播種 inspiration靈感
and ideas思路 across橫過 our societies社會
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此媒介將靈感及構想的種子
散播到社會各處,
00:34
and across橫過 time.
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到各個時代。
我要跟各位說的故事
00:36
The story故事 I'm about to tell you
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是關於一項現代最先進的科技成就
00:38
is about how one of the most advanced高級
technological技術性 achievements成就
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00:41
of the modern現代 era時代
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是如何根據故事創造出來,
00:42
has its roots in stories故事,
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00:44
and how some of the most important重要
transformations轉換 yet然而 to come might威力 also.
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以及未來的重要科技轉型,
也可能會根據故事創造出來。
00:50
The story故事 begins開始 over 300 years年份 ago,
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這個故事始於三百年前,
00:53
when Galileo伽利略 Galilei伽利略 first learned學到了
of the recent最近 Dutch荷蘭人 invention發明
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當時伽利略•伽利萊初次
接觸到一項荷蘭的新發明,
這項發明是將兩片特定形狀的玻璃
放在一根長管子內,
00:57
that took two pieces of shaped成形 glass玻璃
and put them in a long tube
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01:02
and thereby從而 extended擴展 human人的 sight視力
farther更遠 than ever before.
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人類視線能夠透過它
延伸到前所未見的距離。
01:06
When Galileo伽利略 turned轉身
his new telescope望遠鏡 to the heavens
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當伽利略把他的新望遠鏡轉向天空,
01:09
and to the Moon月亮 in particular特定,
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特別是對準了月球時,
他發現了不可思議的事。
01:12
he discovered發現 something incredible難以置信.
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01:15
These are pages網頁 from Galileo's伽利略 book
"Sidereus西德雷烏斯 Nuncius努丘斯," published發表 in 1610.
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這些頁面出自伽利略 1610 年
出版的《星際信使》一書,
01:20
And in them, he revealed透露 to the world世界
what he had discovered發現.
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他藉此向全世界揭示他的發現。
01:23
And what he discovered發現 was that the Moon月亮
was not just a celestial天上 object目的
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他發現月球不僅僅是
在夜空中游移的天體,
01:27
wandering飄零 across橫過 the night sky天空,
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而是一個世界,
01:29
but rather, it was a world世界,
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01:32
a world世界 with high, sunlit陽光 mountains
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這個世界裡有陽光普照的高山,
01:35
and dark黑暗 "mare母馬," the Latin拉丁 word for seas海域.
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以及黑暗的「mare」,
這個字是拉丁文的「海」。
01:40
And once一旦 this new world世界
and the Moon月亮 had been discovered發現,
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在這個新世界和月球被發現之後,
01:42
people immediately立即 began開始
to think about how to travel旅行 there.
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大家立即開始思考
要如何前往那裡。
01:47
And just as importantly重要的,
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同樣重要的,
01:49
they began開始 to write stories故事
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他們開始寫故事,
幻想要如何前往月球,
及旅途可能會是什麼樣子。
01:51
about how that might威力 happen發生
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01:53
and what those voyages航行 might威力 be like.
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01:55
One of the first people to do so
was actually其實 the Bishop主教 of Hereford赫裡福,
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最早這麼做的其中一人,
是赫里福德的主教,
01:59
a man named命名 Francis弗朗西斯 Godwin戈德溫.
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他名叫法蘭西斯•戈德溫。
02:00
Godwin戈德溫 wrote a story故事
about a Spanish西班牙語 explorer探險者,
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戈德溫寫了一個關於西班牙探險家
02:03
Domingo多明戈 Gonsales貢薩萊斯,
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多明哥•岡薩雷斯的故事,
02:04
who ended結束 up marooned被困
on the island of St. Helena海倫娜
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他被困在大西洋中的聖赫倫那島上,
02:07
in the middle中間 of the Atlantic大西洋,
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02:09
and there, in an effort功夫 to get home,
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為了要回家,
02:12
developed發達 a machine, an invention發明,
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他發明了一台機器,
02:14
to harness馬俱 the power功率
of the local本地 wild野生 geese
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利用當地野鵝的力量載他飛翔,
02:17
to allow允許 him to fly --
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02:18
and eventually終於 to embark從事
on a voyage航程 to the Moon月亮.
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最終還讓他進行一趟
飛往月球的旅程。
02:22
Godwin's戈德溫的 book, "The Man in the Moone穆內,
or a Discourse話語 of a Voyage航程 Thither上去,"
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戈德溫的書
《月中人或論月球之旅》
02:26
was only published發表 posthumously死後
and anonymously匿名 in 1638,
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在他死後才於 1638 年匿名出版。
出版的波折可能是因為
書中出現好幾個爭議性的觀點,
02:30
likely容易 on account帳戶 of the number
of controversial爭論的 ideas思路 that it contained,
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02:34
including包含 an endorsement背書
of the Copernican哥白尼 view視圖 of the universe宇宙
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像是為哥白尼的宇宙觀背書。
02:37
that put the Sun太陽 at the center中央
of the Solar太陽能 System系統,
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哥白尼認為太陽是太陽系的中心,
02:39
as well as a pre-Newtonian前牛頓
concept概念 of gravity重力
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並在牛頓之前就提出
地心引力的概念:
02:42
that had the idea理念
that the weight重量 of an object目的
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物體的重量會在離地球越遠時越輕。
02:45
would decrease減少 with increasing增加
distance距離 from Earth地球.
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02:48
And that's to say nothing
of his idea理念 of a goose machine
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更不用說他用野鵝機器
登上月球的點子了。
02:51
that could go to the Moon月亮.
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(笑聲)
02:53
(Laughter笑聲)
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02:54
And while this idea理念 of a voyage航程
to the Moon月亮 by goose machine
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雖然用野鵝機器
進行登月之旅的想法
02:57
might威力 not seem似乎 particularly尤其 insightful見地
or technically技術上 creative創作的 to us today今天,
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在今天看來不是甚麼洞見
或技術的創意,
03:01
what's important重要 is that Godwin戈德溫 described描述
getting得到 to the Moon月亮 not by a dream夢想
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重點是,戈德溫描述的登月之旅,
不是約翰尼斯•克卜勒所寫的,
要透過作夢或魔法來完成,
03:06
or by magic魔法, as Johannes約翰內斯 Kepler開普勒
had written書面 about,
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03:09
but rather, through通過 human人的 invention發明.
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而是用人類的發明來實現。
03:12
And it was this idea理念
that we could build建立 machines
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就是這種建造機器的想法,
03:15
that could travel旅行 into the heavens,
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讓我們能航向天空,
03:17
that would plant its seed種子
in minds頭腦 across橫過 the generations.
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而這個想法在往後
世世代代的人心中播下種子。
03:22
The idea理念 was next下一個 taken採取 up
by his contemporary現代的, John約翰 Wilkins威爾金斯,
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下一個延續這個想法的
是同時期的約翰•威爾金斯,
那時他只是個牛津的年輕學生,
03:25
then just a young年輕 student學生 at Oxford牛津,
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03:26
but later後來, one of the founders創始人
of the Royal王室的 Society社會.
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後來他成為皇家學會的創辦人之一。
03:29
John約翰 Wilkins威爾金斯 took the idea理念 of space空間 travel旅行
in Godwin's戈德溫的 text文本 seriously認真地
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約翰•威爾金斯很認真看待
戈德溫文中關於太空旅行的想法,
03:34
and wrote not just another另一個 story故事
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他寫的不僅是故事,
03:36
but a nonfiction紀實 philosophical哲學上 treatise論文,
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還是一部非虛構的哲學論文,
03:39
entitled標題, "Discovery發現
of the New World世界 in the Moon月亮,
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名為《發現月球新世界,
03:41
or, a Discourse話語 Tending撫育 to Prove證明
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或,可能證明在該星球上
03:44
that 'tis“TIS Probable可能 There May可能 Be
Another另一個 Habitable居住 World世界 in that Planet行星."
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還有另一個適居世界的論述》。
03:48
And note注意, by the way,
that word "habitable可居住."
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請注意,他用了「適居」這個詞。
03:51
That idea理念 in itself本身 would have
been a powerful強大 incentive激勵
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這個想法本身就是個強大的誘因,
03:54
for people thinking思維 about how to build建立
machines that could go there.
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讓人們思考如何建造出
登上月球的機器。
威爾金斯在他的書中認真考慮了
03:57
In his books圖書, Wilkins威爾金斯 seriously認真地 considered考慮
a number of technical技術 methods方法
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幾種太空飛行的方法。
04:01
for spaceflight航天,
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04:02
and it remains遺跡 to this day
the earliest最早 known已知 nonfiction紀實 account帳戶
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這本書至今仍是我們所知
最早用非虛構的文字
來描述登月的可能方法。
04:06
of how we might威力 travel旅行 to the Moon月亮.
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04:08
Other stories故事 would soon不久 follow跟隨,
most notably特別是 by Cyrano塞拉諾 de Bergerac伯傑拉克,
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許多故事很快地相繼出現,
以西哈諾•德貝熱拉克的
04:11
with his "Lunar太陰 Tales故事."
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《月亮的故事》最為知名。
04:12
By the mid-中-17th century世紀,
the idea理念 of people building建造 machines
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到了十七世紀中,
人類建造機器飛往天空的想法
04:15
that could travel旅行 to the heavens
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04:18
was growing生長 in complexity複雜
and technical技術 nuance細微差別.
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變得更複雜,也有更多技術細節。
04:22
And yet然而, in the late晚了 17th century世紀,
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但,在十七世紀末,
04:25
this intellectual知識分子 progress進展
effectively有效 ceased停止.
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這方面的發展卻停止了。
04:28
People still told stories故事
about getting得到 to the Moon月亮,
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大家仍然會說登月的故事,
04:30
but they relied on the old ideas思路
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但故事都建立在舊想法上,
04:32
or, once一旦 again, on dreams or on magic魔法.
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或者,又回頭去談作夢或魔法。
04:36
Why?
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為什麼?
04:37
Well, because the discovery發現
of the laws法律 of gravity重力 by Newton牛頓
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因為牛頓發現了地心引力的定律,
04:41
and the invention發明 of the vacuum真空 pump
by Robert羅伯特 Hooke胡克 and Robert羅伯特 Boyle博伊爾
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還有羅伯特•虎克和勞勃•波以耳
發明了真空幫浦,
04:46
meant意味著 that people now understood了解
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這表示,大家現在知道
04:47
that a condition條件 of vacuum真空
existed存在 between之間 the planets行星,
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各行星之間的空間是真空的,
04:50
and consequentially必然
between之間 the Earth地球 and the Moon月亮.
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而地球和月球之間也是真空。
04:53
And they had no way of overcoming克服 this,
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他們無法克服這一點,
04:55
no way of thinking思維 about overcoming克服 this.
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無法想像要如何克服這一點。
04:58
And so, for well over a century世紀,
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所以,有足足一個世紀多,
05:00
the idea理念 of a voyage航程 to the Moon月亮
made製作 very little intellectual知識分子 progress進展
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登月之旅的構想沒有甚麼進展。
05:04
until直到 the rise上升 of
the Industrial產業 Revolution革命
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一直到工業革命興起,
05:07
and the development發展
of steam蒸汽 engines引擎 and boilers鍋爐
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發明了蒸汽引擎和鍋爐,
05:09
and most importantly重要的, pressure壓力 vessels船隻.
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最重要的是,高壓容器出現了。
05:13
And these gave people the tools工具 to think
about how they could build建立 a capsule膠囊
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有了這些工具,大家就
可以去思考如何建造出
能抗拒真空狀態的太空艙。
05:17
that could resist the vacuum真空 of space空間.
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05:20
So it was in this context上下文, in 1835,
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1835 年,在這樣的情境下,
05:23
that the next下一個 great story故事
of spaceflight航天 was written書面,
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出現了下一個
偉大的太空飛行故事,
05:26
by Edgar埃德加 Allan艾倫 Poe.
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作者是愛倫坡。
05:28
Now, today今天 we think of Poe
in terms條款 of gothic哥特 poems
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現在提到愛倫坡,
我們想到的是哥德體詩作,
05:31
and telltale揭秘 hearts心中 and ravens烏鴉.
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以及《告密的心》、《烏鴉》等著作。
05:34
But he considered考慮 himself他自己
a technical技術 thinker思想家.
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但他自認是個技術思想家。
05:36
He grew成長 up in Baltimore巴爾的摩,
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他在巴爾的摩長大,
05:38
the first American美國 city
with gas加油站 street lighting燈光,
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那是美國第一個
採用煤氣街燈的城市,
05:40
and he was fascinated入迷
by the technological技術性 revolution革命
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他周遭隨處可見的
這項技術革命讓他很著迷。
05:43
that he saw going on all around him.
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05:45
He considered考慮 his own擁有 greatest最大 work
not to be one of his gothic哥特 tales故事
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他認為他最偉大的作品
並不是他的哥德體故事,
05:48
but rather his epic史詩 prose散文 poem "Eureka尤里卡,"
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而是他的長篇散文詩《我發現了》,
這部作品詳細說明了
他的個人觀點,
05:51
in which哪一個 he expounded闡述
his own擁有 personal個人 view視圖
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05:53
of the cosmographical宇宙學 nature性質
of the universe宇宙.
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闡釋他如何看待
天地萬物的宇宙學本質。
05:57
In his stories故事, he would describe描述
in fantastical荒誕 technical技術 detail詳情
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他在故事中用充滿想像力的細節
06:00
machines and contraptions玩意兒,
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來描述機器和新發明。
06:02
and nowhere無處 was he more influential有影響
in this than in his short story故事,
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最有影響力的當然是他的短篇故事:
06:06
"The Unparalleled無與倫比 Adventure冒險
of One Hans漢斯 Pfaall普法爾."
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《漢斯•普法爾歷險記》。
主角是一名鹿特丹的
失業鼓風器製造師。
06:10
It's a story故事 of an unemployed失業的
bellows風箱 maker製作者 in Rotterdam鹿特丹,
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06:13
who, depressed鬱悶 and tired of life --
this is Poe, after all --
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他很憂鬱且厭世——
畢竟這是愛倫坡作品——
06:16
and deeply in debt債務,
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還欠了很多債,
06:18
he decides決定 to build建立 a hermetically密封
enclosed封閉 balloon-borne氣球載 carriage運輸
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他決定要打造一個
用氣球運載的密封車廂,
06:22
that is launched推出 into the air空氣 by dynamite炸藥
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可以用炸藥發射到空中,
06:25
and from there, floats彩車
through通過 the vacuum真空 of space空間
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然後穿過太空的真空,
06:27
all the way to the lunar太陰 surface表面.
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一路漂到月球表面。
06:30
And importantly重要的, he did not
develop發展 this story故事 alone單獨,
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重要的是,這個故事不是
他一個人發展出來的,
06:33
for in the appendix附錄 to his tale故事,
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因為,在他的故事附錄中,
06:35
he explicitly明確地 acknowledged承認 Godwin's戈德溫的
"A Man in the Moone穆內"
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他特別對戈德溫
兩百年前的作品《月中人》致謝,
06:38
from over 200 years年份 earlier
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因為這部作品影響了他,
06:41
as an influence影響,
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06:43
calling調用 it "a singular單數 and somewhat有些
ingenious巧妙 little book."
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他稱之為「非凡且聰明的一本小書」。
06:47
And although雖然 this idea理念 of a balloon-borne氣球載
voyage航程 to the Moon月亮 may可能 seem似乎
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雖然這個用氣球載人到月球的想法
在技術上並沒有
比野鵝機器成熟多少,
06:51
not much more technically技術上 sophisticated複雜的
than the goose machine,
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06:55
in fact事實, Poe was sufficiently充分地 detailed詳細
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事實上,愛倫坡用充分的細節
06:58
in the description描述
of the construction施工 of the device設備
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來描述這個裝置的建造方法,
07:02
and in terms條款 of the orbital軌道的
dynamics動力學 of the voyage航程
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以及這趟旅程的軌道動力學,
仔細的程度讓第一本太空飛行百科全書
能依照他的描述畫出圖解,
07:05
that it could be diagrammed圖解
in the very first spaceflight航天 encyclopedia百科全書
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07:09
as a mission任務 in the 1920s.
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列為 1920 年代的太空任務。
07:13
And it was this attention注意 to detail詳情,
or to "verisimilitude逼真," as he called it,
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他特別注意細節的特質——
他自稱是重視「逼真感」——
07:18
that would influence影響 the next下一個 great story故事:
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讓他影響了下一個偉大的故事:
07:20
Jules儒勒 Verne's凡爾納的 "From the Earth地球
to the Moon月亮," written書面 in 1865.
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朱爾•凡爾納 1865 年
寫的《從地球到月球》。
07:24
And it's a story故事 that has
a remarkable卓越 legacy遺產
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這個故事對後世有很大的貢獻,
07:27
and a remarkable卓越 similarity相似
to the real真實 voyages航行 to the Moon月亮
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且和一百年之後
才發生的真實登月之旅
07:30
that would take place地點
over a hundred years年份 later後來.
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有很高的相似性。
07:32
Because in the story故事, the first voyage航程
to the Moon月亮 takes place地點 from Florida佛羅里達,
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因為,在這個故事中,第一次
登月之旅是從佛羅里達出發,
07:37
with three people on board,
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機上有三個人,
07:40
in a trip that takes three days --
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旅程為三天——
07:42
exactly究竟 the parameters參數 that would prevail戰勝
during the Apollo阿波羅 program程序 itself本身.
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與阿波羅計畫所規劃的相同。
07:47
And in an explicit明確的 tribute
to Poe's坡的 influence影響 on him,
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為了對艾倫坡帶來的影響
明確表達致敬之意,
07:50
Verne凡爾納 situated位於 the group responsible主管
for this feat功績 in the book in Baltimore巴爾的摩,
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凡爾納安排了這本書的
幕後功臣們到巴爾的摩,
在巴爾的摩槍械俱樂部裡
會員一起大喊「敬艾倫坡!」
07:54
at the Baltimore巴爾的摩 Gun Club俱樂部,
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07:56
with its members會員 shouting叫喊,
"Cheers乾杯 for Edgar埃德加 Poe!"
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07:58
as they began開始 to lay鋪設 out their plans計劃
for their conquest征服 of the Moon月亮.
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同時開始規劃
他們遠征月球的計畫。
08:02
And just as Verne凡爾納 was influenced影響 by Poe,
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正如同凡爾納受到艾倫坡的影響,
08:04
so, too, would Verne's凡爾納的 own擁有 story故事
go on to influence影響 and inspire啟發
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凡爾納自己的故事
後來也影響和鼓舞了
08:08
the first generation of rocket火箭 scientists科學家們.
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第一代的火箭科學家。
08:10
The two great pioneers開拓者 of liquid液體 fuel汽油
rocketry火箭 in Russia俄國 and in Germany德國,
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俄國和德國的兩位偉大
液態燃料火箭技術先鋒,
08:13
Konstantin康斯坦丁 Tsiolkovsky奇奧爾科夫斯基 and Hermann赫爾曼 Oberth奧伯斯,
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康斯坦丁齊奧爾科夫斯基
和赫爾曼奧伯特,
08:16
both traced追踪 their own擁有 commitment承諾
to the field領域 of spaceflight航天
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都說他們之所以決定
投身到太空飛行的領域,
08:19
to their reading "From the Earth地球
to the Moon月亮" as teenagers青少年,
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是因為在青少年時期
閱讀了《從地球到月球》,
08:22
and then subsequently後來
committing提交 themselves他們自己
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從此之後,就決定盡自己的努力
08:24
to trying to make that story故事 a reality現實.
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試圖實現那個故事。
08:27
And Verne's凡爾納的 story故事 was not
the only one in the 19th century世紀
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十九世紀,影響長遠的故事
不只是凡爾納的故事。
08:30
with a long arm of influence影響.
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08:32
On the other side of the Atlantic大西洋,
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在大西洋的另一頭,
08:34
H.G. Wells's威爾斯的 "War戰爭 of the Worlds世界"
directly inspired啟發
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H. G. 威爾斯的
《世界大戰》直接啟發了
08:36
a young年輕 man in Massachusetts馬薩諸塞,
Robert羅伯特 Goddard戈達德.
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麻州的年輕人羅伯特•戈達德。
08:40
And it was after reading
"War戰爭 of the Worlds世界"
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他在閱讀了《世界大戰》之後,
在 1890 年代末的某一天,
戈達德在他的日記中寫道,
08:42
that Goddard戈達德 wrote in his diary日記,
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08:44
one day in the late晚了 1890s,
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08:46
of resting休息 while trimming修剪
a cherry櫻桃 tree on his family's家庭的 farm農場
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他在修剪家庭農場中的櫻桃樹時,
08:49
and having a vision視力 of a spacecraft宇宙飛船
taking服用 off from the valley below下面
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腦中出現一幅景象:
一艘太空船從山谷起飛,
08:55
and ascending上升 into the heavens.
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上升飛向天際。
08:56
And he decided決定 then and there
that he would commit承諾 the rest休息 of his life
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就在那一刻,
他決定把餘生投入
09:00
to the development發展 of the spacecraft宇宙飛船
that he saw in his mind's心靈的 eye.
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開發那幅景象中的太空船。
09:05
And he did exactly究竟 that.
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而他真的做到了。
09:07
Throughout始終 his career事業,
he would celebrate慶祝 that day
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在他的職涯中,
他都會把櫻桃樹的那一天,
當作紀念日來慶祝,
09:09
as his anniversary週年 day,
his cherry櫻桃 tree day,
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09:12
and he would regularly經常 read and reread重讀
the works作品 of Verne凡爾納 and of Wells韋爾斯
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而且他常會一讀再讀
凡爾納和威爾斯的作品,
09:15
in order訂購 to renew更新 his inspiration靈感
and his commitment承諾
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讓他能夠在數十年的辛勞和努力中,
09:19
over the decades幾十年 of labor勞動
and effort功夫 that would be required需要
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重新找回他的靈感和決心,
09:23
to realize實現 the first part部分 of his dream夢想:
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最後實現了他夢想的第一部分:
09:25
the flight飛行 of a liquid液體 fuel汽油 rocket火箭,
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讓火箭使用液態燃料飛行,
09:27
which哪一個 he finally最後 achieved實現 in 1926.
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他在 1926 年終於達成這個目標。
09:30
So it was while reading "From the Earth地球
to the Moon月亮" and "The War戰爭 of the Worlds世界"
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所以,因為讀了
《從地球到月球》和《世界大戰》,
讓航太學的先鋒受到啟發,
決定奉獻一生來解決太空飛行的問題。
09:34
that the first pioneers開拓者 of astronautics航太
were inspired啟發 to dedicate奉獻 their lives生活
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09:38
to solving the problems問題 of spaceflight航天.
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而他們的論文和工作成果
09:40
And it was their treatises論文
and their works作品 in turn
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09:43
that inspired啟發 the first
technical技術 communities社區
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接著啟發第一批技術工作者
09:45
and the first projects項目 of spaceflight航天,
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及最早的太空飛行專案計畫,
09:47
thus從而 creating創建 a direct直接 chain of influence影響
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進而創造出了直接的一連串影響,
09:50
that goes from Godwin戈德溫 to Poe to Verne凡爾納
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從戈德溫,到艾倫坡,到凡爾納,
09:52
to the Apollo阿波羅 program程序
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到阿波羅計畫,
09:54
and to the present-day今天
communities社區 of spaceflight航天.
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到現今的太空飛行組織團體。
09:57
So why I have told you all this?
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所以,我為什麼要告訴各位這些?
10:00
Is it just because I think it's cool,
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只因為我覺得很酷嗎?
10:03
or because I'm just
weirdly古怪 fascinated入迷 by stories故事
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或因為我是個奇怪的
17、19 世紀科幻小說迷?
10:07
of 17th-TH- and 19th-centuryTH-世紀 science科學 fiction小說?
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10:10
It is, admittedly固然, partly部分地 that.
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我得承認,那是部分原因沒錯。
10:14
But I also think
that these stories故事 remind提醒 us
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但我也認為這些故事
能讓我們記得
10:16
of the cultural文化 processes流程
driving主動 spaceflight航天
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帶動太空飛行及科技創新的
歷史文明進程,
10:19
and even technological技術性
innovation革新 more broadly寬廣地.
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10:22
As an economist經濟學家 working加工 at NASANASA,
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身為在美國太空總署工作的
經濟學家,我花了很多時間
10:24
I spend time thinking思維 about
the economic經濟 origins起源
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思考我們向外朝宇宙前進
有什麼樣的經濟起源。
10:26
of our movement運動 out into the cosmos宇宙.
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10:29
And when you look before the investments投資
of billionaire億萬富翁 tech高科技 entrepreneurs企業家
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如果去探究在身價億萬的
科技企業家開始投資之前,
在冷戰期間的太空競賽之前,
10:34
and before the Cold War戰爭 Space空間 Race種族,
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1708
10:36
and even before the military軍事 investments投資
in liquid液體 fuel汽油 rocketry火箭,
210
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甚至在軍方投資
液態燃料火箭技術之前,
10:39
the economic經濟 origins起源 of spaceflight航天
are found發現 in stories故事 and in ideas思路.
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太空飛行的經濟起源
都是在故事和構想中找到的。
10:46
It was in these stories故事 that the first
concepts概念 for spaceflight航天 were articulated鉸接式.
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太空飛行最早的構想
就描繪在這些故事中,
10:50
And it was through通過 these stories故事
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人類未來在太空中生存的景象,
也透過這些故事的描述,
10:51
that the narrative敘述 of a future未來
for humanity人性 in space空間
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10:56
began開始 to propagate傳播 from mind心神 to mind心神,
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廣大的深植人心,
10:58
eventually終於 creating創建 an intergenerational代際
intellectual知識分子 community社區
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最終創造出跨世代的知識團體,
11:02
that would iterate迭代
on the ideas思路 for spacecraft宇宙飛船
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反覆發展出太空船的新構想。
11:05
until直到 such這樣 a time
as they could finally最後 be built內置.
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直到真的建造出太空船。
11:09
This process處理 has now been going on
for over 300 years年份,
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至今,這個過程已經
經過了三百多年,
11:13
and the result結果 is
a culture文化 of spaceflight航天.
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結果產出的是一個太空飛行文化。
11:17
It's a culture文化 that involves涉及
thousands數千 of people
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這個文化涉及了
數百年來的數千人。
11:19
over hundreds數以百計 of years年份.
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11:21
Because for hundreds數以百計 of years年份,
some of us have looked看著 at the stars明星
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因為數百年來,人們仰望
星星並渴望前往,
11:25
and longed渴望 to go.
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也因為數百年來,
11:26
And because for hundreds數以百計 of years年份,
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我們投入辛勞,
11:28
some of us have dedicated專用 our labors勞動力
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11:29
to the development發展
of the concepts概念 and systems系統
227
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去發展這些概念和系統,
11:32
required需要 to make those voyages航行 possible可能.
228
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讓太空旅行成為可能。
11:35
I also wanted to tell you
about Godwin戈德溫, Poe and Verne凡爾納
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2627
我和大家談戈德溫、
艾倫坡,和凡爾納,
11:38
because I think their stories故事
also tell us of the importance重要性
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是因為我認為他們的故事
能讓我們普遍了解到,
在我們之間流傳的、
關於未來的故事的重要性。
11:42
of the stories故事 that we tell each other
about the future未來 more generally通常.
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11:45
Because these stories故事 don't just
transmit發送 information信息 or ideas思路.
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因為這些故事不只是
在傳遞資訊或想法。
11:49
They can also nurture培育 passions激情,
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它們也能培養出熱情,
11:52
passions激情 that can lead us
to dedicate奉獻 our lives生活
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2245
讓我們願意投身的熱情,
11:54
to the realization實現 of important重要 projects項目.
235
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2438
讓我們實現重要計畫的熱情。
11:56
Which哪一個 means手段 that these stories故事 can and do
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2484
這就表示,這些故事能夠也確實會
影響未來數世紀的
社會和科技主力人士。
11:59
influence影響 social社會 and technological技術性 forces軍隊
237
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12:02
centuries百年 into the future未來.
238
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1950
12:05
I think we need to realize實現 this
and remember記得 it when we tell our stories故事.
239
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我認為,當我們在訴說自己的
故事時,必須了解並記住這點。
12:09
We need to work hard to write stories故事
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我們得要努力去寫的故事
12:11
that don't just show顯示 us the possible可能
dystopian反烏托邦 paths路徑 we may可能 take
241
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不能只是呈現出我們
理想破滅的反烏托邦之路,
12:14
for a fear恐懼 that the more dystopian反烏托邦
stories故事 we tell each other,
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因為如果我們告訴彼此
越多反烏托邦的故事,
12:17
the more we plant seeds種子
for possible可能 dystopian反烏托邦 futures期貨.
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恐怕會為未來播下越多絕望的種子。
12:21
Instead代替 we need to tell stories故事
that plant the seeds種子,
244
729343
2507
反之,我們需要說的故事,
就算不是為烏托邦播下種子,
12:23
if not necessarily一定 for utopias烏托邦,
245
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1528
12:25
then at least最小 for great new projects項目
of technological技術性, societal社會的
246
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3587
至少也是為了偉大的
新計畫,在科技、社會,
12:29
and institutional制度 transformation轉型.
247
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1710
和制度面帶來轉變。
12:31
And if we think of this idea理念
that the stories故事 we tell each other
248
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3237
如果我們認為,
透過跟彼此說故事的方式
來轉變未來,
12:34
can transform轉變 the future未來
249
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1638
12:36
is fanciful撒嬌的 or impossible不可能,
250
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2357
是太過虛幻或不可能的想法,
12:38
then I think we need to remember記得
the example of this,
251
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2511
那麼,我認為我們
得要記得這個例子,
12:41
our voyage航程 to the Moon月亮,
252
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1653
我們登月之旅的想法來自 17 世紀,
12:42
an idea理念 from the 17th century世紀
253
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2257
12:45
that propagated傳播 culturally文化
for over 300 years年份
254
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3881
在文化中孕育了三百多年,
12:49
until直到 it could finally最後 be realized實現.
255
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1841
直到它被實現。
12:51
So, we need to write new stories故事,
256
759842
2916
所以,我們必須要寫新的故事,
12:55
stories故事 that, 300 years年份 in the future未來,
257
763615
1941
在三百年後的未來,
12:57
people will be able能夠
to look back upon and remark備註
258
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讓人們可以回顧並討論
13:00
how they inspired啟發 us
to new heights高度 and to new shores海岸,
259
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這些故事如何啟發我們
追求新高度和新疆界,
13:03
how they showed顯示 us new paths路徑
and new possibilities可能性,
260
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如何讓我們看見新的路徑
和新的可能性,
13:07
and how they shaped成形
our world世界 for the better.
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及如何把我們的世界變得更好。
13:09
Thank you.
262
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謝謝。
13:10
(Applause掌聲)
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3850
(掌聲)
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Amanda Zhu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander MacDonald - Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities.

Why you should listen

Alexander MacDonald founded NASA's Emerging Space Office, helps build small satellite programs around the world, and is the author of The Long Space Age. He is an economist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and is currently assigned to serve as the Senior Economic Advisor at NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C.

MacDonald is the author and editor of a number of NASA reports including "Emerging Space: The Evolving Landscape of 21st Century American Spaceflight," "Public-Private Partnerships for Space Capability Development" and "Economic Development of Low-Earth Orbit." He also led the development of "A Strategy for Human Spaceflight in Low Earth Orbit and Economic Growth in Space," submitted to the National Space Council in 2018 by NASA, the Department of State and the Department of Commerce. And he helped develop the NASA strategy for the 2016 Presidential Transition. He is an advocate for the use of small satellites -- cubesats -- for technical and capacity development throughout the world, having helped initiate cubesat projects in Lithuania and Kyrgyzstan and having helped establish nationwide cubesat initiatives in the US and Canada.  
 
MacDonald was a research faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University and worked for the Universities Space Research Association while at NASA's Ames Research Center where he worked on small satellite mission designs and served as the center's first research economist on staff. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from Queen's University in Canada, his master's degree in economics from the University of British Columbia and was a Clarendon Scholar at the University of Oxford, where he obtained his doctorate on the long-run economic history of American space exploration. He was also an inaugural TED Senior Fellow and received the History Manuscript of the Year Award in 2016 from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

More profile about the speaker
Alexander MacDonald | Speaker | TED.com