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Alexander MacDonald: How centuries of sci-fi sparked spaceflight
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Long before we had rocket scientists, the idea of spaceflight traveled from mind to mind across generations. With great visuals, TED Fellow and NASA economist Alexander MacDonald shows how 300 years of sci-fi tales -- from Edgar Allan Poe to Jules Verne to H.G. Wells and beyond -- sparked a culture of space exploration. A fascinating look at how stories become reality, featuring a goose machine sent to the Moon.
Alexander MacDonald - Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities. Full bio
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I want to tell you a story about stories.
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And I want to tell you this story
because I think we need to remember
because I think we need to remember
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that sometimes the stories
we tell each other
we tell each other
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are more than just tales
or entertainment or narratives.
or entertainment or narratives.
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They're also vehicles
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for sowing inspiration
and ideas across our societies
and ideas across our societies
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and across time.
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The story I'm about to tell you
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is about how one of the most advanced
technological achievements
technological achievements
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of the modern era
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has its roots in stories,
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and how some of the most important
transformations yet to come might also.
transformations yet to come might also.
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The story begins over 300 years ago,
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when Galileo Galilei first learned
of the recent Dutch invention
of the recent Dutch invention
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that took two pieces of shaped glass
and put them in a long tube
and put them in a long tube
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and thereby extended human sight
farther than ever before.
farther than ever before.
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When Galileo turned
his new telescope to the heavens
his new telescope to the heavens
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and to the Moon in particular,
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he discovered something incredible.
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These are pages from Galileo's book
"Sidereus Nuncius," published in 1610.
"Sidereus Nuncius," published in 1610.
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And in them, he revealed to the world
what he had discovered.
what he had discovered.
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And what he discovered was that the Moon
was not just a celestial object
was not just a celestial object
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wandering across the night sky,
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but rather, it was a world,
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a world with high, sunlit mountains
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and dark "mare," the Latin word for seas.
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And once this new world
and the Moon had been discovered,
and the Moon had been discovered,
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people immediately began
to think about how to travel there.
to think about how to travel there.
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And just as importantly,
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they began to write stories
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about how that might happen
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and what those voyages might be like.
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One of the first people to do so
was actually the Bishop of Hereford,
was actually the Bishop of Hereford,
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a man named Francis Godwin.
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Godwin wrote a story
about a Spanish explorer,
about a Spanish explorer,
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Domingo Gonsales,
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who ended up marooned
on the island of St. Helena
on the island of St. Helena
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in the middle of the Atlantic,
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and there, in an effort to get home,
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developed a machine, an invention,
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to harness the power
of the local wild geese
of the local wild geese
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to allow him to fly --
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and eventually to embark
on a voyage to the Moon.
on a voyage to the Moon.
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Godwin's book, "The Man in the Moone,
or a Discourse of a Voyage Thither,"
or a Discourse of a Voyage Thither,"
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was only published posthumously
and anonymously in 1638,
and anonymously in 1638,
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likely on account of the number
of controversial ideas that it contained,
of controversial ideas that it contained,
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including an endorsement
of the Copernican view of the universe
of the Copernican view of the universe
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that put the Sun at the center
of the Solar System,
of the Solar System,
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as well as a pre-Newtonian
concept of gravity
concept of gravity
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that had the idea
that the weight of an object
that the weight of an object
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would decrease with increasing
distance from Earth.
distance from Earth.
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And that's to say nothing
of his idea of a goose machine
of his idea of a goose machine
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that could go to the Moon.
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(Laughter)
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And while this idea of a voyage
to the Moon by goose machine
to the Moon by goose machine
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might not seem particularly insightful
or technically creative to us today,
or technically creative to us today,
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what's important is that Godwin described
getting to the Moon not by a dream
getting to the Moon not by a dream
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or by magic, as Johannes Kepler
had written about,
had written about,
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but rather, through human invention.
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And it was this idea
that we could build machines
that we could build machines
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that could travel into the heavens,
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that would plant its seed
in minds across the generations.
in minds across the generations.
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The idea was next taken up
by his contemporary, John Wilkins,
by his contemporary, John Wilkins,
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then just a young student at Oxford,
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but later, one of the founders
of the Royal Society.
of the Royal Society.
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John Wilkins took the idea of space travel
in Godwin's text seriously
in Godwin's text seriously
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and wrote not just another story
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but a nonfiction philosophical treatise,
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entitled, "Discovery
of the New World in the Moon,
of the New World in the Moon,
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or, a Discourse Tending to Prove
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that 'tis Probable There May Be
Another Habitable World in that Planet."
Another Habitable World in that Planet."
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And note, by the way,
that word "habitable."
that word "habitable."
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That idea in itself would have
been a powerful incentive
been a powerful incentive
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for people thinking about how to build
machines that could go there.
machines that could go there.
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In his books, Wilkins seriously considered
a number of technical methods
a number of technical methods
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for spaceflight,
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and it remains to this day
the earliest known nonfiction account
the earliest known nonfiction account
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of how we might travel to the Moon.
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Other stories would soon follow,
most notably by Cyrano de Bergerac,
most notably by Cyrano de Bergerac,
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with his "Lunar Tales."
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By the mid-17th century,
the idea of people building machines
the idea of people building machines
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that could travel to the heavens
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was growing in complexity
and technical nuance.
and technical nuance.
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And yet, in the late 17th century,
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this intellectual progress
effectively ceased.
effectively ceased.
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People still told stories
about getting to the Moon,
about getting to the Moon,
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but they relied on the old ideas
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or, once again, on dreams or on magic.
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Why?
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Well, because the discovery
of the laws of gravity by Newton
of the laws of gravity by Newton
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and the invention of the vacuum pump
by Robert Hooke and Robert Boyle
by Robert Hooke and Robert Boyle
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meant that people now understood
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that a condition of vacuum
existed between the planets,
existed between the planets,
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and consequentially
between the Earth and the Moon.
between the Earth and the Moon.
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And they had no way of overcoming this,
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no way of thinking about overcoming this.
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And so, for well over a century,
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the idea of a voyage to the Moon
made very little intellectual progress
made very little intellectual progress
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until the rise of
the Industrial Revolution
the Industrial Revolution
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and the development
of steam engines and boilers
of steam engines and boilers
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and most importantly, pressure vessels.
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And these gave people the tools to think
about how they could build a capsule
about how they could build a capsule
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that could resist the vacuum of space.
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So it was in this context, in 1835,
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that the next great story
of spaceflight was written,
of spaceflight was written,
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by Edgar Allan Poe.
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Now, today we think of Poe
in terms of gothic poems
in terms of gothic poems
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and telltale hearts and ravens.
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But he considered himself
a technical thinker.
a technical thinker.
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He grew up in Baltimore,
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the first American city
with gas street lighting,
with gas street lighting,
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and he was fascinated
by the technological revolution
by the technological revolution
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that he saw going on all around him.
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He considered his own greatest work
not to be one of his gothic tales
not to be one of his gothic tales
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but rather his epic prose poem "Eureka,"
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in which he expounded
his own personal view
his own personal view
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of the cosmographical nature
of the universe.
of the universe.
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In his stories, he would describe
in fantastical technical detail
in fantastical technical detail
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machines and contraptions,
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and nowhere was he more influential
in this than in his short story,
in this than in his short story,
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"The Unparalleled Adventure
of One Hans Pfaall."
of One Hans Pfaall."
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It's a story of an unemployed
bellows maker in Rotterdam,
bellows maker in Rotterdam,
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who, depressed and tired of life --
this is Poe, after all --
this is Poe, after all --
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and deeply in debt,
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he decides to build a hermetically
enclosed balloon-borne carriage
enclosed balloon-borne carriage
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that is launched into the air by dynamite
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and from there, floats
through the vacuum of space
through the vacuum of space
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all the way to the lunar surface.
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And importantly, he did not
develop this story alone,
develop this story alone,
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for in the appendix to his tale,
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he explicitly acknowledged Godwin's
"A Man in the Moone"
"A Man in the Moone"
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from over 200 years earlier
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as an influence,
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calling it "a singular and somewhat
ingenious little book."
ingenious little book."
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And although this idea of a balloon-borne
voyage to the Moon may seem
voyage to the Moon may seem
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not much more technically sophisticated
than the goose machine,
than the goose machine,
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in fact, Poe was sufficiently detailed
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in the description
of the construction of the device
of the construction of the device
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and in terms of the orbital
dynamics of the voyage
dynamics of the voyage
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that it could be diagrammed
in the very first spaceflight encyclopedia
in the very first spaceflight encyclopedia
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as a mission in the 1920s.
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And it was this attention to detail,
or to "verisimilitude," as he called it,
or to "verisimilitude," as he called it,
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that would influence the next great story:
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Jules Verne's "From the Earth
to the Moon," written in 1865.
to the Moon," written in 1865.
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And it's a story that has
a remarkable legacy
a remarkable legacy
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and a remarkable similarity
to the real voyages to the Moon
to the real voyages to the Moon
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that would take place
over a hundred years later.
over a hundred years later.
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Because in the story, the first voyage
to the Moon takes place from Florida,
to the Moon takes place from Florida,
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with three people on board,
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in a trip that takes three days --
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exactly the parameters that would prevail
during the Apollo program itself.
during the Apollo program itself.
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And in an explicit tribute
to Poe's influence on him,
to Poe's influence on him,
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Verne situated the group responsible
for this feat in the book in Baltimore,
for this feat in the book in Baltimore,
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at the Baltimore Gun Club,
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with its members shouting,
"Cheers for Edgar Poe!"
"Cheers for Edgar Poe!"
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as they began to lay out their plans
for their conquest of the Moon.
for their conquest of the Moon.
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And just as Verne was influenced by Poe,
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so, too, would Verne's own story
go on to influence and inspire
go on to influence and inspire
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the first generation of rocket scientists.
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The two great pioneers of liquid fuel
rocketry in Russia and in Germany,
rocketry in Russia and in Germany,
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Konstantin Tsiolkovsky and Hermann Oberth,
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both traced their own commitment
to the field of spaceflight
to the field of spaceflight
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to their reading "From the Earth
to the Moon" as teenagers,
to the Moon" as teenagers,
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and then subsequently
committing themselves
committing themselves
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to trying to make that story a reality.
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And Verne's story was not
the only one in the 19th century
the only one in the 19th century
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with a long arm of influence.
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On the other side of the Atlantic,
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H.G. Wells's "War of the Worlds"
directly inspired
directly inspired
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a young man in Massachusetts,
Robert Goddard.
Robert Goddard.
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And it was after reading
"War of the Worlds"
"War of the Worlds"
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that Goddard wrote in his diary,
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one day in the late 1890s,
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of resting while trimming
a cherry tree on his family's farm
a cherry tree on his family's farm
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and having a vision of a spacecraft
taking off from the valley below
taking off from the valley below
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and ascending into the heavens.
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And he decided then and there
that he would commit the rest of his life
that he would commit the rest of his life
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to the development of the spacecraft
that he saw in his mind's eye.
that he saw in his mind's eye.
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And he did exactly that.
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Throughout his career,
he would celebrate that day
he would celebrate that day
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as his anniversary day,
his cherry tree day,
his cherry tree day,
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and he would regularly read and reread
the works of Verne and of Wells
the works of Verne and of Wells
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in order to renew his inspiration
and his commitment
and his commitment
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over the decades of labor
and effort that would be required
and effort that would be required
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to realize the first part of his dream:
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the flight of a liquid fuel rocket,
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which he finally achieved in 1926.
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So it was while reading "From the Earth
to the Moon" and "The War of the Worlds"
to the Moon" and "The War of the Worlds"
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that the first pioneers of astronautics
were inspired to dedicate their lives
were inspired to dedicate their lives
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to solving the problems of spaceflight.
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And it was their treatises
and their works in turn
and their works in turn
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that inspired the first
technical communities
technical communities
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and the first projects of spaceflight,
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thus creating a direct chain of influence
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that goes from Godwin to Poe to Verne
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to the Apollo program
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and to the present-day
communities of spaceflight.
communities of spaceflight.
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So why I have told you all this?
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Is it just because I think it's cool,
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or because I'm just
weirdly fascinated by stories
weirdly fascinated by stories
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of 17th- and 19th-century science fiction?
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It is, admittedly, partly that.
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But I also think
that these stories remind us
that these stories remind us
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of the cultural processes
driving spaceflight
driving spaceflight
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and even technological
innovation more broadly.
innovation more broadly.
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As an economist working at NASA,
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I spend time thinking about
the economic origins
the economic origins
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of our movement out into the cosmos.
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And when you look before the investments
of billionaire tech entrepreneurs
of billionaire tech entrepreneurs
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and before the Cold War Space Race,
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and even before the military investments
in liquid fuel rocketry,
in liquid fuel rocketry,
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the economic origins of spaceflight
are found in stories and in ideas.
are found in stories and in ideas.
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It was in these stories that the first
concepts for spaceflight were articulated.
concepts for spaceflight were articulated.
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And it was through these stories
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that the narrative of a future
for humanity in space
for humanity in space
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began to propagate from mind to mind,
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eventually creating an intergenerational
intellectual community
intellectual community
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that would iterate
on the ideas for spacecraft
on the ideas for spacecraft
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until such a time
as they could finally be built.
as they could finally be built.
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This process has now been going on
for over 300 years,
for over 300 years,
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and the result is
a culture of spaceflight.
a culture of spaceflight.
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It's a culture that involves
thousands of people
thousands of people
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over hundreds of years.
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Because for hundreds of years,
some of us have looked at the stars
some of us have looked at the stars
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and longed to go.
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And because for hundreds of years,
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some of us have dedicated our labors
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to the development
of the concepts and systems
of the concepts and systems
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required to make those voyages possible.
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I also wanted to tell you
about Godwin, Poe and Verne
about Godwin, Poe and Verne
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because I think their stories
also tell us of the importance
also tell us of the importance
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of the stories that we tell each other
about the future more generally.
about the future more generally.
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Because these stories don't just
transmit information or ideas.
transmit information or ideas.
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They can also nurture passions,
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passions that can lead us
to dedicate our lives
to dedicate our lives
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to the realization of important projects.
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Which means that these stories can and do
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influence social and technological forces
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centuries into the future.
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I think we need to realize this
and remember it when we tell our stories.
and remember it when we tell our stories.
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We need to work hard to write stories
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that don't just show us the possible
dystopian paths we may take
dystopian paths we may take
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for a fear that the more dystopian
stories we tell each other,
stories we tell each other,
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the more we plant seeds
for possible dystopian futures.
for possible dystopian futures.
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Instead we need to tell stories
that plant the seeds,
that plant the seeds,
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if not necessarily for utopias,
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then at least for great new projects
of technological, societal
of technological, societal
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and institutional transformation.
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And if we think of this idea
that the stories we tell each other
that the stories we tell each other
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can transform the future
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is fanciful or impossible,
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then I think we need to remember
the example of this,
the example of this,
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our voyage to the Moon,
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an idea from the 17th century
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that propagated culturally
for over 300 years
for over 300 years
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until it could finally be realized.
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So, we need to write new stories,
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stories that, 300 years in the future,
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people will be able
to look back upon and remark
to look back upon and remark
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how they inspired us
to new heights and to new shores,
to new heights and to new shores,
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how they showed us new paths
and new possibilities,
and new possibilities,
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and how they shaped
our world for the better.
our world for the better.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander MacDonald - EconomistTED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities.
Why you should listen
Alexander MacDonald founded NASA's Emerging Space Office, helps build small satellite programs around the world, and is the author of The Long Space Age. He is an economist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and is currently assigned to serve as the Senior Economic Advisor at NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C.
MacDonald is the author and editor of a number of NASA reports including "Emerging Space: The Evolving Landscape of 21st Century American Spaceflight," "Public-Private Partnerships for Space Capability Development" and "Economic Development of Low-Earth Orbit." He also led the development of "A Strategy for Human Spaceflight in Low Earth Orbit and Economic Growth in Space," submitted to the National Space Council in 2018 by NASA, the Department of State and the Department of Commerce. And he helped develop the NASA strategy for the 2016 Presidential Transition. He is an advocate for the use of small satellites -- cubesats -- for technical and capacity development throughout the world, having helped initiate cubesat projects in Lithuania and Kyrgyzstan and having helped establish nationwide cubesat initiatives in the US and Canada.
MacDonald was a research faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University and worked for the Universities Space Research Association while at NASA's Ames Research Center where he worked on small satellite mission designs and served as the center's first research economist on staff. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from Queen's University in Canada, his master's degree in economics from the University of British Columbia and was a Clarendon Scholar at the University of Oxford, where he obtained his doctorate on the long-run economic history of American space exploration. He was also an inaugural TED Senior Fellow and received the History Manuscript of the Year Award in 2016 from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
Alexander MacDonald | Speaker | TED.com