ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.

Why you should listen

Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.

In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.

Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Bill Gates: The next outbreak? We're not ready

比爾蓋茲: 下一場疫情爆發怎麼辦?我們還沒預備好!

Filmed:
3,303,597 views

於2014 年,全世界避免了一場恐怖的伊波拉疫情大爆發,這要感謝成千上萬無私的衛生人員—但坦白說,還要加上運氣好。事後諸葛,我們知道我們真的應該做得更好。所以,比爾蓋茲提議現在就是時候要把好想法付諸實踐,從沙盤推演、疫苗研究到衛生人員訓練。正如他所說:「我們不需要恐慌,但是一定要開始行動。」
- Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:17
When I was a kid孩子,
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在我小時候,
00:19
the disaster災害 we worried擔心 about most
was a nuclear war戰爭.
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最讓我們感到擔憂的是一場核戰災難,
那就是我們在地下室
放個像這樣的桶子的原因,
00:23
That's why we had a barrel like this
down in our basement地下室,
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00:27
filled填充 with cans of food餐飲 and water.
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裝滿罐頭食物及水。
00:30
When the nuclear attack攻擊 came來了,
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如果發生核子攻擊,
00:31
we were supposed應該 to go downstairs樓下,
hunker蹲下 down, and eat out of that barrel.
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我們就要躲到地下室,
蹲下,吃桶裡的食物。
00:37
Today今天 the greatest最大 risk風險
of global全球 catastrophe災難
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但是今天全球最大的災難風險
00:41
doesn't look like this.
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不是這個,
00:44
Instead代替, it looks容貌 like this.
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而是這個。
00:48
If anything kills殺死 over 10 million百萬 people
in the next下一個 few少數 decades幾十年,
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如果在未來數十年有任何東西
能殺死一千多萬人,
00:53
it's most likely容易 to be
a highly高度 infectious傳染病 virus病毒
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那極可能是具高度傳染性的病毒,
00:57
rather than a war戰爭.
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而非一場戰爭,
00:59
Not missiles導彈, but microbes微生物.
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不是各樣的飛彈,而是微生物。
01:03
Now, part部分 of the reason原因 for this is that
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那麼,造成這種情況的部分原因是
01:05
we've我們已經 invested投資 a huge巨大 amount
in nuclear deterrents威懾.
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我們投進了大把鈔票在核武威脅上,
01:10
But we've我們已經 actually其實 invested投資 very little
in a system系統 to stop an epidemic疫情.
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卻極少投資在防止流行病的系統,
01:16
We're not ready準備 for the next下一個 epidemic疫情.
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我們還沒準備好對抗下一場流行病。
01:20
Let's look at Ebola埃博拉病毒.
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來看一下伊波拉。
01:21
I'm sure all of you read about it
in the newspaper報紙,
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我敢肯定你們都在報上讀過相關消息,
01:25
lots of tough強硬 challenges挑戰.
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很多艱難的挑戰。
01:27
I followed其次 it carefully小心
through通過 the case案件 analysis分析 tools工具
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我透過我們追蹤根除
小兒麻痺症的個案分析工具
01:30
we use to track跟踪 polio脊髓灰質炎 eradication根除.
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仔細追蹤伊波拉的情況。
01:35
And as you look at what went on,
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你看看當時的情況,
01:37
the problem問題 wasn't that there was a system系統
that didn't work well enough足夠,
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問題不在系統沒有發揮足夠的作用,
01:42
the problem問題 was that we
didn't have a system系統 at all.
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問題在於我們根本就沒有系統。
01:46
In fact事實, there's some pretty漂亮 obvious明顯
key missing失踪 pieces.
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事實上,是有一些
相當明顯的重大缺失。
01:51
We didn't have a group of epidemiologists流行病學家
ready準備 to go, who would have gone走了,
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我們沒有一組流行病學家待命,
他們本該到發病當地,
01:55
seen看到 what the disease疾病 was,
seen看到 how far it had spread傳播.
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察看這種疾病,
察看這種疾病蔓延的情況。
01:59
The case案件 reports報告 came來了 in on paper.
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個案報告以書寫形式發表,
02:02
It was very delayed延遲
before they were put online線上
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但是耽擱許久後才放上網路,
02:04
and they were extremely非常 inaccurate不準確.
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而且內容還極不正確。
02:07
We didn't have a medical team球隊 ready準備 to go.
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我們沒有醫療團隊待命,
02:09
We didn't have a way of preparing準備 people.
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我們沒有替隊員預備部署的方法。
02:12
Now, Médecinsdecins SansSANS FrontiFrontières水庫
did a great job工作 orchestrating策劃 volunteers志願者.
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現在無國界醫生在動員志工上表現極好,
02:17
But even so, we were far slower比較慢
than we should have been
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但是即便如此,我們仍然慢太多了,
02:20
getting得到 the thousands數千 of workers工人
into these countries國家.
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我們本來應該能動員
數千名人員進入這些國家的,
02:24
And a large epidemic疫情 would require要求 us
to have hundreds數以百計 of thousands數千 of workers工人.
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而一場大型的流行病需要
我們數千名人員待命。
02:32
There was no one there
to look at treatment治療 approaches方法.
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沒有人在那裡研究治療方法,
02:37
No one to look at the diagnostics診斷.
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沒有人研究診斷學,
02:38
No one to figure數字 out
what tools工具 should be used.
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沒有人去搞清楚到底要用什麼工具。
02:42
As an example, we could have
taken採取 the blood血液 of survivors倖存者,
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舉個例,我們本來可以
取倖存者的血液,
02:45
processed處理 it, and put that plasma等離子體
back in people to protect保護 them.
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處理一下,把那個血漿
打回人類身上來保護他們,
02:51
But that was never tried試著.
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但是那個方法從未試過,
02:53
So there was a lot that was missing失踪.
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所以還有很多的事情沒有處理,
02:55
And these things
are really a global全球 failure失敗.
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而這些事真的是全球層面的失敗。
03:00
The WHO is funded資助 to monitor監控 epidemics流行病,
but not to do these things I talked about.
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世界衛生組織是受資助去監控流行病,
但是沒有做到我剛剛談及的那幾件事。
03:07
Now, in the movies電影 it's quite相當 different不同.
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但是電影可不是這麼演的。
03:09
There's a group of handsome英俊
epidemiologists流行病學家 ready準備 to go,
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有一群好帥的流行病學家隨時待命,
03:14
they move移動 in, they save保存 the day,
but that's just pure Hollywood好萊塢.
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他們進入災區,轉危為安,
但那只是好萊塢罷了。
03:22
The failure失敗 to prepare準備
could allow允許 the next下一個 epidemic疫情
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無法未雨綢繆可能會讓下一場疫情
03:25
to be dramatically顯著
more devastating破壞性的 than Ebola埃博拉病毒
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比伊波拉更具破壞力。
03:30
Let's look at the progression級數
of Ebola埃博拉病毒 over this year.
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來看一下今年伊波拉的進展,
03:36
About 10,000 people died死亡,
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大約一萬人死亡,
03:39
and nearly幾乎 all were in the three
West西 African非洲人 countries國家.
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而且死亡人口幾乎集中在
這三個西非國家。
03:43
There's three reasons原因 why
it didn't spread傳播 more.
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有三個原因讓它沒有
蔓延到更遠的地方。
03:46
The first is that there was a lot
of heroic英勇 work by the health健康 workers工人.
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第一是衛生人員做了很多英勇事蹟。
03:50
They found發現 the people and they
prevented防止 more infections感染.
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他們找出患病的人,
而且防止更多感染。
03:54
The second第二 is the nature性質 of the virus病毒.
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第二是這個病毒的天性。
03:56
Ebola埃博拉病毒 does not spread傳播 through通過 the air空氣.
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伊波拉不會透過空氣傳播,
03:59
And by the time you're contagious傳染性的,
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當你被傳染時,
04:01
most people are so sick生病
that they're bedridden臥床不起的.
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大部分患者都已嚴重到臥病在床。
04:06
Third第三, it didn't get
into many許多 urban城市的 areas.
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第三,它沒有傳到許多城市地區,
04:10
And that was just luck運氣.
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這僅是運氣好。
04:12
If it had gotten得到 into a lot
more urban城市的 areas,
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如果它傳到更多城市地區,
04:14
the case案件 numbers數字
would have been much larger.
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病例數可能會大幅提高。
04:17
So next下一個 time, we might威力 not be so lucky幸運.
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所以下次,
我們可能就沒這麼幸運了!
04:21
You can have a virus病毒 where people
feel well enough足夠 while they're infectious傳染病
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你可能帶有一種病毒,
而其他人的身體沒有出現毛病,
04:26
that they get on a plane平面
or they go to a market市場.
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病毒卻具感染性的,
他們還可以登機或去市場。
病毒的來源可能是
天然疫源如伊波拉,
04:29
The source資源 of the virus病毒 could be
a natural自然 epidemic疫情 like Ebola埃博拉病毒,
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04:32
or it could be bioterrorism生物恐怖主義.
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也可能是生化恐怖主義。
04:34
So there are things that would literally按照字面
make things a thousand times worse更差.
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所以的確有東西會讓情況糟一千倍。
04:39
In fact事實, let's look at a model模型
of a virus病毒 spread傳播 through通過 the air空氣,
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事實上,讓我們來看一下
經空氣傳播的病毒傳染模式,
04:45
like the Spanish西班牙語 Flu流感 back in 1918.
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就像 1918 年發生的西班牙型流感。
04:49
So here's這裡的 what would happen發生:
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所以情況可能是這樣:
04:51
It would spread傳播 throughout始終 the world世界
very, very quickly很快.
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它可能極快速地傳遍世界。
04:55
And you can see over 30 million百萬 people
died死亡 from that epidemic疫情.
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你們可以看到超過三千萬人
死於那次疫情。
05:00
So this is a serious嚴重 problem問題.
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所以這是很嚴重的問題,
05:02
We should be concerned關心.
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我們應當掛慮。
05:04
But in fact事實, we can build建立
a really good response響應 system系統.
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但事實上,
我們可以建立良好的應變系統,
05:08
We have the benefits好處 of all the science科學
and technology技術 that we talk about here.
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我們有這裡談到的科學與技術優勢。
05:13
We've我們已經 got cell細胞 phones手機
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我們有手機
05:14
to get information信息 from the public上市
and get information信息 out to them.
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可以從民眾得到資訊,
也可以傳播資訊給民眾。
05:18
We have satellite衛星 maps地圖 where we can see
where people are and where they're moving移動.
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我們有衛星圖能看到
民眾聚集在哪裡又移動到哪裡。
05:22
We have advances進步 in biology生物學
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我們的生物學蓬勃發展,
05:24
that should dramatically顯著 change更改
the turnaround迴轉 time to look at a pathogen病原
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應能大幅提升從尋找病原體
05:28
and be able能夠 to make drugs毒品 and vaccines疫苗
that fit適合 for that pathogen病原.
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到製造治療藥物及疫苗
所需的處理時間。
05:33
So we can have tools工具,
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所以我們有工具,
05:34
but those tools工具 need to be put
into an overall總體 global全球 health健康 system系統.
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但是這些工具需要讓
全球衛生系統都運用到,
05:39
And we need preparedness準備.
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而且我們要未雨綢繆。
05:41
The best最好 lessons教訓, I think,
on how to get prepared準備
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我想,如何未雨綢繆的最佳範例
05:44
are again, what we do for war戰爭.
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就是我們如何備戰。
05:46
For soldiers士兵, we have full-time全職,
waiting等候 to go.
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在軍員方面,我們的職業軍人隨時待命,
05:51
We have reserves儲量 that can scale規模
us up to large numbers數字.
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而後備軍人也能大量擴充動員。
05:54
NATO北約 has a mobile移動 unit單元
that can deploy部署 very rapidly急速.
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北約還有個機動組能快速遣兵,
05:58
NATO北約 does a lot of war戰爭 games遊戲
to check, are people well trained熟練?
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北約做過很多軍事演習
以查驗大家是否訓練有素?
06:01
Do they understand理解
about fuel汽油 and logistics後勤
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他們是否了解燃料及後勤,
06:03
and the same相同 radio無線電 frequencies頻率?
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是否在同一無線頻率上?
06:06
So they are absolutely絕對 ready準備 to go.
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如此一來他們完全準備待命。
06:08
So those are the kinds of things
we need to deal合同 with an epidemic疫情.
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這些就是我們對抗
流行病需要做的事。
06:13
What are the key pieces?
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有哪些主要部分?
06:15
First, we need strong強大 health健康 systems系統
in poor較差的 countries國家.
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第一,在貧窮國家我們
需要完善的醫療系統,
06:20
That's where mothers母親
can give birth分娩 safely安然,
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在那裡母親能安全生產,
06:23
kids孩子 can get all their vaccines疫苗.
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小孩能注射疫苗。
06:25
But, also where we'll see
the outbreak暴發 very early on.
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但是,那些地方也是我們
能早早發現疫情爆發的地方,
06:30
We need a medical reserve保留 corps兵團:
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我們需要醫療後備部隊:
06:31
lots of people who've誰一直 got
the training訓練 and background背景
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很多受過訓練且具備相關背景的人
06:34
who are ready準備 to go, with the expertise專門知識.
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能隨時待命,還有專門知識技能。
06:37
And then we need to pair those
medical people with the military軍事.
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然後我們需要讓
醫療人員與軍方配搭,
06:42
taking服用 advantage優點 of the military's軍事的 ability能力
to move移動 fast快速, do logistics後勤
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利用軍方的能力快速行動、做後勤
06:46
and secure安全 areas.
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及採取安全措施保護當地。
06:48
We need to do simulations模擬,
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我們需要模擬演練,
06:51
germ病菌 games遊戲, not war戰爭 games遊戲,
so that we see where the holes are.
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做微生物演習,而非軍事演習,
那樣才能發現漏洞所在。
06:55
The last time a germ病菌 game遊戲
was doneDONE in the United聯合的 States狀態
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美國最後一次微生物演習
06:58
was back in 2001,
and it didn't go so well.
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於 2001 年舉行,而且還不太成功。
07:02
So far the score得分了 is germs病菌: 1, people: 0.
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到目前為止比數是
微生物 1 分, 人類 0 分。
07:07
Finally最後, we need lots of advanced高級 R&D
in areas of vaccines疫苗 and diagnostics診斷.
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最後,我們就疫苗及診斷方面
需要很多先進的研發,
07:13
There are some big breakthroughs突破,
like the Adeno-associated腺相關 virus病毒,
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也有一些重大的突破,
例如腺相關病毒,
07:17
that could work very, very quickly很快.
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能產生非常非常快的成效。
07:21
Now I don't have an exact精確 budget預算
for what this would cost成本,
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我對這個要花多少錢
並沒有明確的預算,
07:24
but I'm quite相當 sure it's very modest謙虛
compared相比 to the potential潛在 harm危害.
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但我還蠻確定
與潛在危害相比這應該不算多。
07:29
The World世界 Bank銀行 estimates估計 that
if we have a worldwide全世界 flu流感 epidemic疫情,
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世界銀行估計
如果來一場全球流感疫情,
07:33
global全球 wealth財富 will go down
by over three trillion dollars美元
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全球財富將會減少三兆多美元,
07:37
and we'd星期三 have millions百萬
and millions百萬 of deaths死亡.
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而且還會有數不清的死亡病例。
07:41
These investments投資
offer提供 significant重大 benefits好處
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這些投資提供的顯著效益
07:44
beyond just being存在 ready準備 for the epidemic疫情.
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不僅在於充分預備對抗流感疫情,
07:46
The primary healthcare衛生保健, the R&D,
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還有基礎衛生醫療與研發,
07:48
those things would reduce減少
global全球 health健康 equity公平
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這些事都可能縮小
全球健康公平性的差距,
07:51
and make the world世界 more just
as well as more safe安全.
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讓這個世界更公平更安全。
07:55
So I think this should absolutely絕對
be a priority優先.
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所以我認為這絕對是
該優先考慮的事情。
07:59
There's no need to panic恐慌.
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我們絕不需要恐慌,
08:00
We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti意大利面
or go down into the basement地下室.
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不需要囤積義大利麵罐頭
或躲到地下室去。
08:05
But we need to get going,
because time is not on our side.
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但是我們需要開始行動,
因為時間並不站在我們這邊。
08:09
In fact事實, if there's one positive thing
that can come out of the Ebola埃博拉病毒 epidemic疫情,
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事實上,如果要說伊波拉疫情
帶給我們什麼正面的事情,
08:15
it's that it can serve服務 as an early
warning警告, a wake-up醒來 call, to get ready準備.
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那就是它是早期警告,
一個警鐘,要我們準備好。
08:21
If we start開始 now, we can be ready準備
for the next下一個 epidemic疫情.
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如果我們現在就開始,
必定能夠準備好對抗下一場疫情。
08:26
Thank you.
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謝謝。
08:28
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Regina Chu
Reviewed by William Choi

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.

Why you should listen

Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.

In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.

Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com