ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Davis - Research scientist
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

Why you should listen

Sean Davis studies long-term change in the chemical composition and circulation of the stratosphere, with an emphasis on human-caused perturbations to the Earth’s protective ozone layer and their impact on climate at the surface. He is a research scientist at the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory’s Chemical Sciences Division.

More profile about the speaker
Sean Davis | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxBoulder

Sean Davis: Can we solve global warming? Lessons from how we protected the ozone layer

Sean Davis: 我们能解决全球变暖吗?从臭氧层保护中学到的经验

Filmed:
1,825,260 views

蒙特利尔气候协定证明了全世界可以齐心协力对抗气候变化。在这个史上最成功的环保协定签订的三十年后,大气科学家Sean Davis向我们介绍了禁用含氯氟烃所避免的危害,以及我们能从中学到的对抗当代环境危机的经验。
- Research scientist
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
So, I'm a climate气候 scientist科学家,
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我是一位气候科学家,
如果这个房间代表我们所处的国家,
00:16
and if this room房间 is representative代表
of the country国家 we live生活 in,
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那么大约你们中的60%,
差不多从那里一直到我的右边,
00:21
that means手段 about 60 percent百分 of you,
so maybe from about there over,
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不相信我在气候变化上的观点。
00:26
don't strongly非常 trust相信 me for information信息
on the causes原因 of climate气候 change更改.
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00:32
Now, I promise诺言 to tell the truth真相 tonight今晚,
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我保证今晚说的都是真话,
00:34
but just to humor幽默 that demographic人口,
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但是为了那些不相信我的人,
我会从一句假话谈起。
00:37
I've started开始 this talk with a falsehood谬误.
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[巴黎气候协定是对
气候变化的全球共识的产物]
00:39
[The Paris巴黎 Climate气候 Accord符合
is a product产品 of the recognition承认
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[巴黎气候协定是对
气候变化的全球共识的产物]
这话不是奥巴马总统说的。
00:42
that climate气候 change更改
is a global全球 problem问题 ...]
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00:44
This statement声明 was not made制作
by President主席 Obama奥巴马.
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是里根总统说的。
00:46
It was made制作 by President主席 Reagan里根,
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而且,它不是关于气候变化
和巴黎气候协定的,
00:48
and it wasn't about climate气候 change更改
and the Paris巴黎 Climate气候 Accord符合.
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它其实是关于蒙提利尔协定
00:51
It was actually其实
about the Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议
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和平流层臭氧损耗的。
00:53
and stratospheric平流层 ozone臭氧 depletion消耗.
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00:57
Now, I'm sure that many许多 of you aren't
familiar with this environmental环境的 problem问题,
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我很确定你们当中很多人
不太熟悉臭氧层问题,
但你们应该熟悉,
01:01
but you should be,
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因为这是一个很罕见的
成功的环保案例。
01:03
because it's a rare罕见
environmental环境的 success成功 story故事.
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这值得我们从中学习,
01:06
And it's worth价值 revisiting再访,
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因为有时,我们需要从
所避免的环境灾难中学习,
01:08
because sometimes有时, we need
to examine检查 the world世界 we've我们已经 avoided避免
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才能更好地做出当下的选择。
01:12
in order订购 to find guidance指导
for the choices选择 we make today今天.
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01:16
So let's go back to the 1970s,
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让我们回到1970年代。
在那个时代,人们
做出了一些不当的选择:
01:19
when some questionable可疑的 choices选择 were made制作:
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首先是发胶。
(笑声)
01:22
first of all -- hoo --
hairstyles发型. (Laughs)
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其次,客观地说,
质量糟糕的喷发定型剂。
01:27
Second第二 of all, objectively客观地
terrible可怕 quantities数量 of hairspray发胶,
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第三,CFC,也就是氯氟烃。
01:31
and third第三, CFCs氯氟烃, chlorofluorocarbons氯氟烃,
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CFC是人造的化学品,
被用作喷雾剂中的压缩气体。
01:36
man-made人造 chemicals化学制品 that were used
as propellant推进物 in aerosol气雾剂 spray喷雾 cans.
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01:41
And see, it turns out
these CFCs氯氟烃 were a problem问题
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后来,人们发现CFC引发了一个问题,
因为它会破坏臭氧层。
01:44
because they were destroying销毁
the ozone臭氧 layer.
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我很确定大多数人都听说过臭氧层,
01:47
Now I'm sure most of you
have heard听说 of the ozone臭氧 layer,
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为什么我们要在意臭氧层呢?
01:50
but why does it matter?
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简单来说,臭氧层是地球的防晒霜,
01:51
Well, quite相当 simply只是,
the ozone臭氧 layer is earth's地球 sunscreen防晒,
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而且它十分脆弱。
01:56
and it's really fragile脆弱.
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01:58
If you could take all of the ozone臭氧,
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臭氧大多都处于
地面以上20至25公里处,
若你取得地球上所有臭氧,
02:00
which哪一个 is mostly大多 about
10 to 20 miles英里 up above以上 our heads,
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然后把它们压缩在地球表面,
02:03
and compress压缩 it down
to the surface表面 of the earth地球,
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它会形成大概有两个分币厚的薄层,
02:06
it would form形成 a thin shell贝壳
only about two pennies便士 thick,
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大概3毫米厚。
02:10
about an eighth第八 of an inch英寸.
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02:12
And that thin shell贝壳 does
an amazing惊人 amount of work, though虽然.
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而这薄薄一层臭氧其实十分重要。
它能抵御超过90%源自太阳的
02:15
It filters过滤器 out more than 90 percent百分
of the harmful有害 UVUV radiation辐射
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有害紫外线辐射。
02:21
coming未来 from the sun太阳.
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02:23
And while I'm sure many许多 of you
enjoy请享用 that suntan晒黑 that you get
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虽然我知道很多人都喜欢晒太阳,
但即使是剩下10%的
紫外线辐射也能造成很多麻烦:
02:28
from the remaining其余 10 percent百分,
it causes原因 a lot of problems问题:
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如白内障,
02:32
cataracts白内障,
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02:34
damage损伤 to crops作物,
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损害农作物,
损伤免疫系统,
02:36
damage损伤 to immune免疫的 systems系统
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02:38
and also skin皮肤 cancer癌症.
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以及皮肤癌。
02:40
It's not an exaggeration夸张
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对臭氧层的威胁
02:42
to say that a threat威胁 to the ozone臭氧 layer
is a threat威胁 to human人的 safety安全.
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就是对人类安全的威胁,
并不是夸大其词。
02:47
And actually其实, ironically讽刺地,
it was human人的 safety安全
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讽刺的是,正是处于对人类安全的担忧,
02:50
that motivated动机 the invention发明
of CFCs氯氟烃 in the first place地点.
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促成了氟利昂的发明。
在电冰箱刚刚投入使用时,
02:53
You see, in the early days
of refrigeration冷藏,
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会使用有毒,易燃的化学品,
02:55
refrigerators冰箱 used toxic有毒的
and flammable易燃的 chemicals化学制品
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如丙烷和氨。
02:59
like propane丙烷 and ammonia.
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03:01
For good reason原因,
the refrigeration冷藏 industry行业
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所以制冷工业想要一个
更安全的替代物,
03:03
wanted a safe安全 alternative替代,
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他们在1928年找到了它。
03:05
and they found发现 that in 1928,
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一位叫做Thomas Midgley的科学家
03:07
when a scientist科学家 named命名 Thomas托马斯 Midgley米德利
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率先合成了商业上可用的CFC。
03:10
synthesized综合 the first
commercially商业 viable可行 CFCs氯氟烃.
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03:14
And in fact事实, Midgley米德利 famously著名
inhaled吸入 CFCs氯氟烃 and blew自爆 out a candle蜡烛
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事实上,Midgley在一场学术论坛上
亲自吸入了CFC并用其吹灭了一支蜡烛,
03:20
to demonstrate演示,
at a scientific科学 conference会议,
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来证明CFC十分安全并不易燃。
03:22
that they were safe安全 and nonflammable不易燃.
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其实,作为一名科学家,我可以告诉你,
03:25
And in fact事实, as a scientist科学家,
I can tell you there is no way
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现在你可没办法像他这样演示。
03:28
you could get away
with that kind of antic安蒂奇 today今天.
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真的,这让人感觉不可思议。
03:30
I mean, wow.
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03:33
But really, at the time,
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而在那时,
CFC是一项十分卓越的发明。
03:34
CFCs氯氟烃 were a really remarkable卓越 invention发明.
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它促成了当代的制冷技术,
03:38
They allowed允许 what we now know
as modern-day现代 refrigeration冷藏
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还有空调等等。
03:42
and air-conditioning空调 and other things.
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03:44
So it wasn't actually其实 until直到
over 40 years年份 later后来, in the 1970s,
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直到四十年之后的1970年代,
科学家们才意识到CFC
会在大气层的高处降解,
03:50
when scientists科学家们 realized实现 that CFCs氯氟烃
would break打破 down high in the atmosphere大气层
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破坏臭氧层。
03:55
and damage损伤 the ozone臭氧 layer.
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这个发现引发了公众的担忧。
03:57
And this finding发现 really set off
a lot of public上市 concern关心.
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最后在1978年,
美国和一些其他国家禁止
04:00
It led, ultimately最终, to the banning取缔
of CFCCfc usage用法 in aerosol气雾剂 spray喷雾 cans
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04:05
in the US and a few少数
other countries国家 in 1978.
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在喷雾剂中使用CFC。
04:09
Now, the story故事 doesn't end结束 there,
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而故事可没在那时结束,
因为CFC不止被用在喷雾剂中。
04:11
because CFCs氯氟烃 were used
in much more than just spray喷雾 cans.
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04:15
In 1985, scientists科学家们 discovered发现
the Antarctic南极洲 ozone臭氧 hole,
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在1985年,科学家发现了
南极上空的臭氧层空洞,
04:20
and this was a truly alarming惊人 discovery发现.
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这是一项十分让人警醒的发现。
科学家们完全没有预料到。
04:23
Scientists科学家们 did not expect期望 this at all.
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04:28
Before the Antarctic南极洲 ozone臭氧 hole,
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在此前,
科学家们预期一个世纪中
大概会有5%至10%的
04:29
scientists科学家们 expected预期
maybe a five or 10 percent百分 reduction减少
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04:33
in ozone臭氧 over a century世纪.
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臭氧衰减。
04:35
But what they found发现
over the course课程 of less than a decade
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但他们发现,在不到十年中,
在面积超过美国的地区上方,
04:40
was that more than a third第三 of the ozone臭氧
had simply只是 vanished消失,
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超过三分之一的臭氧消失了。
04:44
over an area larger
than the size尺寸 of the US.
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04:48
And although虽然 we now know that CFCs氯氟烃
are the root cause原因 of this ozone臭氧 hole,
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虽然我们现在知道CFC
是臭氧层空洞的祸根,
当时,学术上还远远没有定论。
04:52
at the time, the science科学
was far from settled安定.
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04:56
Yet然而 despite尽管 this uncertainty不确定,
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而尽管有这样的不确定性,
那场危机却得以
促使各个国家采取行动。
04:59
the crisis危机 helped帮助 spur骨刺 nations国家 to act法案.
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05:02
So that quote引用 that I started开始
this talk with,
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回到我开始时引用里根总统
关于蒙特利尔协定的那句话——
05:06
about the Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议,
from President主席 Reagan里根 --
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05:09
that was his signing签约 statement声明
when he signed the Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议
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那是美国参议院一致通过之后,
里根总统签订协议时候的声明。
05:13
after its unanimous一致 ratification批准
by the US Senate参议院.
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这是一件真正值得庆祝的事。
05:17
And this is something
that's truly worth价值 celebrating庆祝.
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其实,昨天就是蒙特利尔协定
签订的三十周年。
05:19
In fact事实, yesterday昨天 was the 30th
anniversary周年 of the Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议.
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(掌声)
05:24
(Applause掌声)
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因为这项协定,
05:30
Because of the protocol协议,
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05:32
ozone-depleting消耗臭氧物质 substances物质
are now declining下降 in our atmosphere大气层,
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大气层中侵害臭氧的物质正在减少,
而我们也已经看到了
臭氧层恢复的初步征兆。
05:36
and we're starting开始 to see the first signs迹象
of healing复原 in the ozone臭氧 layer.
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05:41
And furthermore此外, because many许多
of those ozone-depleting消耗臭氧物质 substances物质
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而且,因为很多侵害臭氧的物质
同时也是强力的温室气体,
05:45
are also very potent有力的 greenhouse温室 gases气体,
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蒙特利尔协定将全球变暖的发生
05:47
the Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议
has actually其实 delayed延迟 global全球 warming变暖
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05:50
by more than a decade.
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推迟了十年。
05:52
That's just wonderful精彩.
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那太棒了。
05:54
But I think it's worth价值
asking the question,
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但我觉得我们应该思索这个问题,
特别是当我们面对当下
全球变暖的环境问题时,
05:59
as we face面对 our current当前
environmental环境的 crisis危机, global全球 warming变暖,
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我们可以从蒙特利尔协定中学到什么?
06:02
what lessons教训 can we learn学习 from Montreal蒙特利尔?
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有值得借鉴之处吗?我觉得有。
06:05
Are there any? I think there are.
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06:08
First, we don't need
absolute绝对 certainty肯定 to act法案.
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首先,我们并不需要
百分之百确定才采取行动。
06:13
When Montreal蒙特利尔 was signed,
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当蒙特利尔协定签订时,
我们对于CFC的危害远不如
06:15
we were less certain某些 then
of the risks风险 from CFCs氯氟烃
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06:19
than we are now of the risks风险
from greenhouse温室 gas加油站 emissions排放.
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我们现在对温室气体的危害来的确定。
06:25
A common共同 tactic战术 that people
who oppose反对 climate气候 action行动 use
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有些反对针对气候变化
采取行动的人常用的说辞
就是无视风险而单单强调不确定性。
06:28
is to completely全然 ignore忽视 risk风险
and focus焦点 only on uncertainty不确定.
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06:33
But so what about uncertainty不确定?
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不确定又如何呢?
06:35
We make decisions决定 in the face面对
of uncertainty不确定 all the time,
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我们每时每刻都在面对不确定性。
真的,每时每刻。
06:39
literally按照字面 all the time.
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我想你们很多人都是开车来这里的,
06:41
You know, I'll bet赌注 those of you
who drove开车 here tonight今晚,
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你们大概系了安全带。
06:45
you probably大概 wore穿着 your seat座位 belt.
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06:48
And so ask yourself你自己,
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请想一下,
你系安全带是因为有人告诉你,
06:50
did you wear穿 your seat座位 belt
because someone有人 told you
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06:52
with a hundred percent百分 [certainty肯定]
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你有百分之百的可能
06:54
that you would get
in a car汽车 crash紧急 on the way here?
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会在来这儿的路上出车祸吗?
06:57
Probably大概 not.
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大概不是。
所以这就是我们学到的第一件事。
06:59
So that's the first lesson.
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风险管理和决策制定永远都
伴随着不确定性。
07:01
Risk风险 management管理 and decision决定 making制造
always have uncertainty不确定.
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07:05
Ignoring忽略 risk风险 and focusing调焦
only on uncertainty不确定 is a distraction娱乐.
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忽视风险而专注于不确定性
只会分散我们的注意力。
07:10
In other words, inaction无为 is an action行动.
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换句话说,不做选择也是一种选择。
07:16
Second第二, it takes a village
to raise提高 a healthy健康 environment环境.
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第二,创造健康的环境
需要来自多方的努力。
07:22
The Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议 wasn't just
put together一起 by industry行业 and governments政府
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蒙特利尔协定不仅仅
是由行业机构和政府
或是环保活动家和科学家单独制定的,
07:26
or environmental环境的 advocacy拥护
groups and scientists科学家们.
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而是由他们所有人一起制定的。
07:30
It was put together一起 by all of them.
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他们都有所参与,
07:32
They all had a seat座位 at the table,
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都在解决臭氧层问题中发挥了重要作用。
07:35
and they all played发挥
an important重要 role角色 in the solution.
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我想在这个方面,
07:38
And I think in this regard看待,
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我们在今天也做得很好。
07:39
we're actually其实 seeing眼看
some encouraging鼓舞人心的 signs迹象 today今天.
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我们不仅看到环保组织
致力于对抗气候变化,
07:41
We see not just environmental环境的 groups
concerned关心 about climate气候 change更改
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还有公民运动和宗教组织,
07:46
but also civic公民 and religious宗教 groups,
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军事组织和商业组织。
07:49
the military军事 and businesses企业.
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07:52
So wherever哪里 you find yourself你自己
on that spectrum光谱,
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所以不管你是谁,
我们需要你的参与,
07:55
we need you at the table,
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因为解决全球变暖
07:57
because if we're going
to solve解决 global全球 warming变暖,
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需要各个层面的行动,
07:59
it's going to take actions行动 at all levels水平,
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从个人到国际,
08:01
from the individual个人 to the international国际
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还有两者之间的每个层面。
08:04
and everything in between之间.
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08:08
Third第三 lesson:
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第三点:
08:10
don't let the perfect完善
be the enemy敌人 of the good.
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不要拘泥于完美而止步不前。
08:14
While Montreal蒙特利尔 has become成为 the brake制动 pedal踏板
for stopping停止 ozone臭氧 depletion消耗,
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虽然蒙特利尔协定最终
成为了臭氧损耗的休止符,
在最开始,它的效果并不明显。
08:19
at its beginning开始, it was more
just like a tap龙头 on the brakes刹车.
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08:24
It was actually其实 the later后来
amendments修订 to the protocol协议
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其实是之后对协定的修正
真正阻止了臭氧损耗。
08:27
that really marked the decision决定
to hit击中 the brakes刹车 on ozone臭氧 depletion消耗.
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08:33
So to those who despair绝望
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所以对那些悲观主义者,
08:34
that the Paris巴黎 Climate气候 Accord符合
didn't go far enough足够
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他们觉得巴黎气候协定做的远远不够,
或是一个人的努力解决不了全球变暖,
08:37
or that your limited有限 actions行动 on their own拥有
won't惯于 solve解决 global全球 warming变暖,
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我会说,不要拘泥于完美而止步不前。
08:42
I say don't let the perfect完善
be the enemy敌人 of the good.
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08:48
And finally最后, I think it helps帮助 us
to contemplate沉思 the world世界 we've我们已经 avoided避免.
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最后,我想这有助于
我反思所避免的危害。
08:54
Indeed确实, the world世界 we have avoided避免
by enacting颁布 the Montreal蒙特利尔 Protocol协议
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的确,我们通过蒙特利尔协定避免的
是对环境和人类的
09:00
is one of catastrophic灾难性的 changes变化
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灾难性的变化。
09:02
to our environment环境
and to human人的 well-being福利.
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09:05
By the 2030s, we'll be avoiding避免 millions百万
of new skin皮肤 cancer癌症 cases per year
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到2030年,我们会避免每年
数以百万计的皮肤癌病例
这个数字只会增长。
09:12
with a number that would only grow增长.
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09:15
If I'm lucky幸运, I'll live生活 long enough足够
to see the end结束 of this animation动画
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如果我够幸运,就能够
见证这场变化的结尾,
看到臭氧层恢复到它原初的状态。
09:19
and to see the ozone臭氧 hole
restored恢复 to its natural自然 state.
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09:24
So as we write the story故事
for earth's地球 climate气候 future未来
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所以,当我们在这个世纪以及未来
书写地球气候的历史时。
09:27
for this century世纪 and beyond,
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我们要问自己,我们要做什么
09:29
we need to ask ourselves我们自己,
what will our actions行动 be
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09:32
so that someone有人 can stand on this stage阶段
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才能让30,50,或者100年后,
有人能够站在这个舞台上,
09:35
in 30 or 50 or a hundred years年份
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09:39
to celebrate庆祝 the world世界
that they've他们已经 avoided避免.
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庆祝他们避免的种种灾害。
09:43
Thank you.
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谢谢。
(掌声)
09:44
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by Yichen Huang
Reviewed by jacks jun

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Davis - Research scientist
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

Why you should listen

Sean Davis studies long-term change in the chemical composition and circulation of the stratosphere, with an emphasis on human-caused perturbations to the Earth’s protective ozone layer and their impact on climate at the surface. He is a research scientist at the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory’s Chemical Sciences Division.

More profile about the speaker
Sean Davis | Speaker | TED.com