TEDxBoulder
Sean Davis: Can we solve global warming? Lessons from how we protected the ozone layer
尚恩 · 戴維斯: 我們能解決全球暖化嗎？從保護臭氧層學到的三課
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蒙特婁協定證明世界可以團結起來針對氣候變遷採取行動。在世上最成功的環境條約簽署三十年後，大氣科學家尚恩 · 戴維斯探討我們禁用 CFC 後避免的災難世界，分享能繼續被採用的三課，以處理這時代的環境危機。
Sean Davis - Research scientist
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Full bio
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So, I'm a climate scientist,
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我是氣候科學家，
00:16
and if this room is representative
of the country we live in,
of the country we live in,
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如果這間房間代表
我們居住的國家，
我們居住的國家，
00:21
that means about 60 percent of you,
so maybe from about there over,
so maybe from about there over,
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那就表示在座有六成左右的人，
大約是從那裡開始的人，
大約是從那裡開始的人，
00:26
don't strongly trust me for information
on the causes of climate change.
on the causes of climate change.
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不太相信我所提供
關於氣候變遷成因的相關資訊。
關於氣候變遷成因的相關資訊。
00:32
Now, I promise to tell the truth tonight,
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我保證今天晚上說的都是真相，
00:34
but just to humor that demographic,
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但單純為了迎合那部分人口，
00:37
I've started this talk with a falsehood.
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我用假話來開場。
【巴黎氣候協定認定…】
【巴黎氣候協定認定…】
00:39
[The Paris Climate Accord
is a product of the recognition
is a product of the recognition
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【巴黎氣候協定認定
氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
這段陳述並不是歐巴馬總統說的，
【巴黎氣候協定認定…】
【巴黎氣候協定認定…】
00:42
that climate change
is a global problem ...]
is a global problem ...]
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事實上是雷根總統説的。
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
00:44
This statement was not made
by President Obama.
by President Obama.
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【巴黎氣候協定認定
氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
00:46
It was made by President Reagan,
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重點不在氣候變遷或巴黎氣候協定，
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
00:48
and it wasn't about climate change
and the Paris Climate Accord.
and the Paris Climate Accord.
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00:51
It was actually
about the Montreal Protocol
about the Montreal Protocol
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重點其實是蒙特婁議定書，
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
00:53
and stratospheric ozone depletion.
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以及平流層的臭氧耗損。
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
【…氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
【巴黎氣候協定認定
氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
氣候變遷是全球問題的產物…】
00:57
Now, I'm sure that many of you aren't
familiar with this environmental problem,
familiar with this environmental problem,
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我相信許多人並不熟悉
這個環境問題，
這個環境問題，
01:01
but you should be,
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但你們應該要知道它，
01:03
because it's a rare
environmental success story.
environmental success story.
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因為它是個罕見的環境成功故事。
01:06
And it's worth revisiting,
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它值得被重新審視，
01:08
because sometimes, we need
to examine the world we've avoided
to examine the world we've avoided
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因為有時我們得要探討
被我們避免的世界，
被我們避免的世界，
01:12
in order to find guidance
for the choices we make today.
for the choices we make today.
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才能為我們現今的選擇找到指南。
01:16
So let's go back to the 1970s,
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讓我們回到七○年代，
01:19
when some questionable choices were made:
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當時做了些蠻可疑的選擇：
01:22
first of all -- hoo --
hairstyles. (Laughs)
hairstyles. (Laughs)
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首先......呼，髮型。（笑聲）
01:27
Second of all, objectively
terrible quantities of hairspray,
terrible quantities of hairspray,
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第二，客觀來說，巨量的噴髮定形劑，
01:31
and third, CFCs, chlorofluorocarbons,
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第三，氯氟烴，簡稱 CFC，
01:36
man-made chemicals that were used
as propellant in aerosol spray cans.
as propellant in aerosol spray cans.
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人造的化學物質，被用來
當氣溶膠噴罐的噴射劑。
當氣溶膠噴罐的噴射劑。
01:41
And see, it turns out
these CFCs were a problem
these CFCs were a problem
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結果發現，CFC 是個問題，
01:44
because they were destroying
the ozone layer.
the ozone layer.
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因為它們會破壞臭氧層。
01:47
Now I'm sure most of you
have heard of the ozone layer,
have heard of the ozone layer,
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我相信大部分人都聽過臭氧層，
但它為什麼重要？
01:50
but why does it matter?
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01:51
Well, quite simply,
the ozone layer is earth's sunscreen,
the ozone layer is earth's sunscreen,
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很簡單，臭氧層是地球的遮陽板，
01:56
and it's really fragile.
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且它很脆弱。
01:58
If you could take all of the ozone,
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大部分的臭氧在我們頭上
十到二十英哩高的地方，
十到二十英哩高的地方，
02:00
which is mostly about
10 to 20 miles up above our heads,
10 to 20 miles up above our heads,
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若你能把所有的臭氧
向下壓到地球的表面，
向下壓到地球的表面，
02:03
and compress it down
to the surface of the earth,
to the surface of the earth,
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02:06
it would form a thin shell
only about two pennies thick,
only about two pennies thick,
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它會形式一層薄薄的殼，
大約只有兩個一分硬幣的厚度，
大約只有兩個一分硬幣的厚度，
02:10
about an eighth of an inch.
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約八分之一英吋。
02:12
And that thin shell does
an amazing amount of work, though.
an amazing amount of work, though.
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不過，那層薄殼起了大大的作用。
02:15
It filters out more than 90 percent
of the harmful UV radiation
of the harmful UV radiation
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它過濾掉超過九成
來自太陽的有害紫外線輻射。
02:21
coming from the sun.
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02:23
And while I'm sure many of you
enjoy that suntan that you get
enjoy that suntan that you get
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雖然我相信許多人很享受
用那剩下的一成來把皮膚曬黑，
02:28
from the remaining 10 percent,
it causes a lot of problems:
it causes a lot of problems:
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但它會造成很多問題：白內障、
02:32
cataracts,
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02:34
damage to crops,
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損害作物、
02:36
damage to immune systems
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損害免疫系統，
02:38
and also skin cancer.
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還有皮膚癌。
02:40
It's not an exaggeration
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說危害臭氧層就是危害人類
一點也不誇張。
一點也不誇張。
02:42
to say that a threat to the ozone layer
is a threat to human safety.
is a threat to human safety.
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02:47
And actually, ironically,
it was human safety
it was human safety
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其實很諷刺的是
一開始發明 CFC 的動機
就是為了人類安全。
就是為了人類安全。
02:50
that motivated the invention
of CFCs in the first place.
of CFCs in the first place.
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02:53
You see, in the early days
of refrigeration,
of refrigeration,
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在冷藏的早期，
02:55
refrigerators used toxic
and flammable chemicals
and flammable chemicals
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冰箱使用有毒且可燃的化學物質，
02:59
like propane and ammonia.
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比如丙烷和氨。
03:01
For good reason,
the refrigeration industry
the refrigeration industry
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有充分的理由，製冷產業
想要找安全的替代方案，
想要找安全的替代方案，
03:03
wanted a safe alternative,
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03:05
and they found that in 1928,
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1928 年，他們找到了，
03:07
when a scientist named Thomas Midgley
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有個名叫托馬斯 · 米基利的科學家
03:10
synthesized the first
commercially viable CFCs.
commercially viable CFCs.
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最先合成出了
能用在商業上的 CFC。
能用在商業上的 CFC。
03:14
And in fact, Midgley famously
inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle
inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle
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事實上，米基利有項
為人所知的事蹟，
為人所知的事蹟，
在一個科學大會上，他吸入
CFC 之後再將它吐向蠟燭，
CFC 之後再將它吐向蠟燭，
03:20
to demonstrate,
at a scientific conference,
at a scientific conference,
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展示 CFC 是安全的且不可燃的。
03:22
that they were safe and nonflammable.
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03:25
And in fact, as a scientist,
I can tell you there is no way
I can tell you there is no way
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事實上，身為科學家，
我可以告訴各位，
我可以告訴各位，
現今你無法靠那種鬼把戲得逞。
03:28
you could get away
with that kind of antic today.
with that kind of antic today.
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03:30
I mean, wow.
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我是指，哇。
03:33
But really, at the time,
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但，說真的，在當時，
03:34
CFCs were a really remarkable invention.
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CFC 是真的很了不起的發明。
03:38
They allowed what we now know
as modern-day refrigeration
as modern-day refrigeration
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CFC 讓我們現在所知的現代冷藏、
03:42
and air-conditioning and other things.
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冷氣空調等成為可能。
03:44
So it wasn't actually until
over 40 years later, in the 1970s,
over 40 years later, in the 1970s,
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所以，一直到四十年後，
到了七○年代，
03:50
when scientists realized that CFCs
would break down high in the atmosphere
would break down high in the atmosphere
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科學家才了解到 CFC
在大氣高空會瓦解,
在大氣高空會瓦解,
03:55
and damage the ozone layer.
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並傷害臭氧層。
03:57
And this finding really set off
a lot of public concern.
a lot of public concern.
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這項發現真的引發了
大眾的大量關注。
大眾的大量關注。
04:00
It led, ultimately, to the banning
of CFC usage in aerosol spray cans
of CFC usage in aerosol spray cans
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最終，它導致 1978 年
美國及幾個其他國家
美國及幾個其他國家
禁止使用 CFC 來做氣溶膠噴罐。
04:05
in the US and a few
other countries in 1978.
other countries in 1978.
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04:09
Now, the story doesn't end there,
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故事還沒結束，
04:11
because CFCs were used
in much more than just spray cans.
in much more than just spray cans.
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因為除了氣溶膠噴罐，
還有很多東西用到 CFC。
還有很多東西用到 CFC。
04:15
In 1985, scientists discovered
the Antarctic ozone hole,
the Antarctic ozone hole,
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1985 年，科學家發現
南極上空的臭氧有破洞，
南極上空的臭氧有破洞，
04:20
and this was a truly alarming discovery.
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那是個非常有警示性的發現。
04:23
Scientists did not expect this at all.
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科學家完全沒有預期到。
在南極臭氧破洞之前，
04:28
Before the Antarctic ozone hole,
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04:29
scientists expected
maybe a five or 10 percent reduction
maybe a five or 10 percent reduction
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科學家預期臭氧一個世紀
會減少大約 5% 或 10%。
04:33
in ozone over a century.
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04:35
But what they found
over the course of less than a decade
over the course of less than a decade
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但結果他們發現，
在不到十年的時間，
在不到十年的時間，
04:40
was that more than a third of the ozone
had simply vanished,
had simply vanished,
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超過三分之一的臭氧消失了，
04:44
over an area larger
than the size of the US.
than the size of the US.
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等同一個比美國還大的面積。
04:48
And although we now know that CFCs
are the root cause of this ozone hole,
are the root cause of this ozone hole,
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雖然現在我們知道 CFC
是臭氧破洞的原兇，
是臭氧破洞的原兇，
04:52
at the time, the science
was far from settled.
was far from settled.
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在當時科學根本沒有定論。
04:56
Yet despite this uncertainty,
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但，儘管有這不確定性，
04:59
the crisis helped spur nations to act.
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也因為出現這項危機，
各國才採取行動。
各國才採取行動。
05:02
So that quote that I started
this talk with,
this talk with,
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所以我在演說一開始的引言，
05:06
about the Montreal Protocol,
from President Reagan --
from President Reagan --
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引述雷根總統對
蒙特婁議定書的引言──
蒙特婁議定書的引言──
05:09
that was his signing statement
when he signed the Montreal Protocol
when he signed the Montreal Protocol
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那是在美國參議院一致通過之後，
他簽署蒙特婁議定書時的簽署聲明。
05:13
after its unanimous ratification
by the US Senate.
by the US Senate.
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05:17
And this is something
that's truly worth celebrating.
that's truly worth celebrating.
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這是真的很值得慶祝的事。
事實上，昨天是
蒙特婁議定書的三十週年。
蒙特婁議定書的三十週年。
05:19
In fact, yesterday was the 30th
anniversary of the Montreal Protocol.
anniversary of the Montreal Protocol.
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05:24
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
05:30
Because of the protocol,
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因為該議定書，
05:32
ozone-depleting substances
are now declining in our atmosphere,
are now declining in our atmosphere,
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如今大氣中消耗臭氧的物質減少了，
05:36
and we're starting to see the first signs
of healing in the ozone layer.
of healing in the ozone layer.
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我們也開始看到臭氧層
康復的第一個徵兆。
康復的第一個徵兆。
05:41
And furthermore, because many
of those ozone-depleting substances
of those ozone-depleting substances
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此外，因為許多會消耗臭氧的物質
05:45
are also very potent greenhouse gases,
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同時也是非常強力的溫室氣體，
05:47
the Montreal Protocol
has actually delayed global warming
has actually delayed global warming
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蒙特婁議定書其實也將
全球暖化延遲了至少十年。
全球暖化延遲了至少十年。
05:50
by more than a decade.
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05:52
That's just wonderful.
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那真的很好。
05:54
But I think it's worth
asking the question,
asking the question,
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但，我認為有個問題值得去問，
05:59
as we face our current
environmental crisis, global warming,
environmental crisis, global warming,
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面對目前的環境危機
「全球暖化」之際，
「全球暖化」之際，
06:02
what lessons can we learn from Montreal?
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我們能從蒙特婁議定書學到些什麼？
06:05
Are there any? I think there are.
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有嗎？我認為有。
06:08
First, we don't need
absolute certainty to act.
absolute certainty to act.
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首先，我們不需要等到
完全肯定才採取行動。
完全肯定才採取行動。
06:13
When Montreal was signed,
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蒙特婁議定書被簽署時，
06:15
we were less certain then
of the risks from CFCs
of the risks from CFCs
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我們那時對於 CFC
會造成風險的確定程度，
會造成風險的確定程度，
06:19
than we are now of the risks
from greenhouse gas emissions.
from greenhouse gas emissions.
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還不及我們現在對於溫室氣體
排放會造成風險的肯定程度。
排放會造成風險的肯定程度。
06:25
A common tactic that people
who oppose climate action use
who oppose climate action use
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反對為氣候採取行動的人，
最常採用的戰術
最常採用的戰術
06:28
is to completely ignore risk
and focus only on uncertainty.
and focus only on uncertainty.
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就是完全忽略風險，
把焦點放在不確定性上。
把焦點放在不確定性上。
06:33
But so what about uncertainty?
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但，不確定性又怎樣？
06:35
We make decisions in the face
of uncertainty all the time,
of uncertainty all the time,
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我們總在面對不確定性時做決策，
06:39
literally all the time.
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真的總是如此。
06:41
You know, I'll bet those of you
who drove here tonight,
who drove here tonight,
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我敢說，今天晚上開車來這裡的人
06:45
you probably wore your seat belt.
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可能都繫上安全帶。
06:48
And so ask yourself,
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所以，問問自己，
06:50
did you wear your seat belt
because someone told you
because someone told you
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你繫上安全帶是因為有人
06:52
with a hundred percent [certainty]
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百分之百肯定地告訴你，
06:54
that you would get
in a car crash on the way here?
in a car crash on the way here?
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你到這裡的路上會發生車禍嗎？
06:57
Probably not.
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應該不是。
06:59
So that's the first lesson.
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那是第一課。
07:01
Risk management and decision making
always have uncertainty.
always have uncertainty.
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風險管理和決策總是會有不確定性。
07:05
Ignoring risk and focusing
only on uncertainty is a distraction.
only on uncertainty is a distraction.
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忽略風險，只著重不確定性，
是在轉移注意力。
是在轉移注意力。
07:10
In other words, inaction is an action.
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換言之，不採取行動
本身就是一種行動。
本身就是一種行動。
07:16
Second, it takes a village
to raise a healthy environment.
to raise a healthy environment.
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第二，要整村人同心協力
才能建起健康的環境。
才能建起健康的環境。
07:22
The Montreal Protocol wasn't just
put together by industry and governments
put together by industry and governments
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促成蒙特婁議定書的
不只是產業及政府，
不只是產業及政府，
07:26
or environmental advocacy
groups and scientists.
groups and scientists.
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或環境擁護團體和科學家。
07:30
It was put together by all of them.
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是他們全部聯手促成的。
07:32
They all had a seat at the table,
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他們全都參了一腳，
07:35
and they all played
an important role in the solution.
an important role in the solution.
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都在解決方案中承擔重要角色。
07:38
And I think in this regard,
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我認為，現今我們在這點上
確實看到些振奮人心的徵兆。
確實看到些振奮人心的徵兆。
07:39
we're actually seeing
some encouraging signs today.
some encouraging signs today.
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07:41
We see not just environmental groups
concerned about climate change
concerned about climate change
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我們看到，不僅環境團體
關心氣候變遷，
關心氣候變遷，
07:46
but also civic and religious groups,
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還有公民團體和宗教團體，
07:49
the military and businesses.
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軍方和企業。
07:52
So wherever you find yourself
on that spectrum,
on that spectrum,
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所以，不論你在光譜上的哪個位置，
07:55
we need you at the table,
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我們也需要你參與，
因為，如果我們要解決全球暖化，
會需要各層級都採取行動，
會需要各層級都採取行動，
07:57
because if we're going
to solve global warming,
to solve global warming,
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07:59
it's going to take actions at all levels,
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08:01
from the individual to the international
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從個人層級到國際層級，
08:04
and everything in between.
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以及中間的每個層級。
08:08
Third lesson:
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第三課：
08:10
don't let the perfect
be the enemy of the good.
be the enemy of the good.
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不要讓「完美」成為「好」的敵人。
08:14
While Montreal has become the brake pedal
for stopping ozone depletion,
for stopping ozone depletion,
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雖然蒙特婁議定書已成
阻止臭氧消耗的煞車踏板，
阻止臭氧消耗的煞車踏板，
08:19
at its beginning, it was more
just like a tap on the brakes.
just like a tap on the brakes.
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一開始，它更像
只是輕輕點了一下煞車。
只是輕輕點了一下煞車。
08:24
It was actually the later
amendments to the protocol
amendments to the protocol
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實際上要等議定書被修訂之後
才真正做出決策，
才真正做出決策，
08:27
that really marked the decision
to hit the brakes on ozone depletion.
to hit the brakes on ozone depletion.
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要一腳踩到底，煞住臭氧的消耗。
08:33
So to those who despair
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所以，若你感到灰心，
08:34
that the Paris Climate Accord
didn't go far enough
didn't go far enough
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覺得巴黎氣候協定做得不夠，
08:37
or that your limited actions on their own
won't solve global warming,
won't solve global warming,
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或是光靠你有限的行動，
無法解決全球暖化，
無法解決全球暖化，
08:42
I say don't let the perfect
be the enemy of the good.
be the enemy of the good.
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我會說，別讓
「完美」成為「好」的敵人。
「完美」成為「好」的敵人。
08:48
And finally, I think it helps us
to contemplate the world we've avoided.
to contemplate the world we've avoided.
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最後，我認為仔細思忖被我們
避開的世界會有幫助。
避開的世界會有幫助。
08:54
Indeed, the world we have avoided
by enacting the Montreal Protocol
by enacting the Montreal Protocol
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的確，我們制定蒙特婁
議定書而避免的世界
議定書而避免的世界
09:00
is one of catastrophic changes
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是個災難巨變的世界，
09:02
to our environment
and to human well-being.
and to human well-being.
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不論是在環境面上或人類幸福面上。
09:05
By the 2030s, we'll be avoiding millions
of new skin cancer cases per year
of new skin cancer cases per year
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到 2030 年代，
我們每年能避免數百萬個
新的皮膚癌案例，
新的皮膚癌案例，
09:12
with a number that would only grow.
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這個數字只會不斷上升。
09:15
If I'm lucky, I'll live long enough
to see the end of this animation
to see the end of this animation
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如果我很幸運，我會活得夠久
可以看到這段動畫的結尾，
可以看到這段動畫的結尾，
09:19
and to see the ozone hole
restored to its natural state.
restored to its natural state.
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看到臭氧破洞
被復原到自然的狀態。
被復原到自然的狀態。
09:24
So as we write the story
for earth's climate future
for earth's climate future
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當我們為地球的氣候未來
寫這個世紀以及之後的故事時，
寫這個世紀以及之後的故事時，
09:27
for this century and beyond,
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09:29
we need to ask ourselves,
what will our actions be
what will our actions be
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得要自問：我們要採取什麼行動，
09:32
so that someone can stand on this stage
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才能讓三十年、
五十年，或一百年後，
五十年，或一百年後，
09:35
in 30 or 50 or a hundred years
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能夠有人站在這個舞台上，
09:39
to celebrate the world
that they've avoided.
that they've avoided.
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慶祝他們避免掉災難的世界。
09:43
Thank you.
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謝謝。
09:44
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Davis - Research scientistSean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere.
Why you should listen
Sean Davis studies long-term change in the chemical composition and circulation of the stratosphere, with an emphasis on human-caused perturbations to the Earth’s protective ozone layer and their impact on climate at the surface. He is a research scientist at the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory’s Chemical Sciences Division.
Sean Davis | Speaker | TED.com