TEDSummit 2019
Tshering Tobgay: An urgent call to protect the world's "Third Pole"
策林·托杰: 保护世界的“第三极”迫在眉睫
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,689,135 views
兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区是世界上第三大冰川贮藏地，仅次于南北极。如果现在冰川消融的速度持续下去，在本世纪结束前，该地区三分之二的冰川将不复存在。如果我们对此放任自流会怎样呢？环保主义者和前不丹首相策林·托杰为我们分享了“亚洲水塔”的现状，呼吁建立一个政府间代理机构来保护冰川，以避免该地区下游近 20 亿居民受到能够摧毁土地和生命的灾难性洪水的威胁。
Tshering Tobgay - Prime Minister of Bhutan
Acting on his mandate to move Bhutan into the 21st century, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay is transforming his nation -- while maintaining its “Gross National Happiness.” Full bio
Acting on his mandate to move Bhutan into the 21st century, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay is transforming his nation -- while maintaining its “Gross National Happiness.” Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
On the 17th of October, 2009,
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2009 年 10 月 17 日，
00:18
President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives
did something unusual.
did something unusual.
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马尔代夫总统穆罕默德·纳希德
做出了一个不寻常的举动。
做出了一个不寻常的举动。
00:23
He held his cabinet meeting underwater.
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他在水下召开了内阁会议。
00:31
He literally took his ministers
scuba diving, as it were,
scuba diving, as it were,
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他和与会官员一起进行水肺潜水，
00:36
to warn the world
that his country could drown
that his country could drown
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以警示世人，除非全球变暖得到控制，
00:40
unless we control global warming.
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否则马尔代夫将被海水淹没。
00:43
Now I don't know whether he got
his message across to the world or not,
his message across to the world or not,
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虽然我不知道这一信息
是否被全世界的关注，
是否被全世界的关注，
00:47
but he certainly caught mine.
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但我确实注意到了。
00:49
I saw a political stunt.
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在我看来，这是个政治噱头。
00:52
You see, I'm a politician,
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大家知道我是个政治家，
00:54
and I notice these things.
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因此会注意到这些事情。
00:57
And let's be honest,
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实话实说，
00:58
the Maldives are distant
from where I come from --
from where I come from --
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我来自不丹，
01:02
my country is Bhutan --
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离马尔代夫很远，
01:04
so I didn't lose any sleep
over their impending fate.
over their impending fate.
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其不幸的命运并不会使我寝食难安。
01:09
Barely two months later,
I saw another political stunt.
I saw another political stunt.
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仅在两个月后，
我又看到了另一个政治噱头。
我又看到了另一个政治噱头。
01:14
This time, the prime minister of Nepal,
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这次是尼泊尔首相
01:18
he held his cabinet meeting
on Mount Everest.
on Mount Everest.
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在珠峰上召开了内阁会议。
01:23
He took all his ministers all the way up
to the base camp of Everest
to the base camp of Everest
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他和部长一起登上了珠峰大本营
01:28
to warn the world
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来警示世人
01:30
that the Himalayan glaciers were melting.
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喜马拉雅的冰川正在消融。
01:33
Now did that worry me?
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这次我该担心了吧？
01:34
You bet it did.
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八九不离十吧。
01:36
I live in the Himalayas.
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毕竟我就生活在喜马拉雅山麓。
01:39
But did I lose any sleep over his message?
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但我寝食难安了吗？
01:43
No.
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并没有。
01:44
I wasn't ready to let a political stunt
interfere with my beauty sleep.
interfere with my beauty sleep.
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我才不要让一个政治噱头
搅了我的好梦。
搅了我的好梦。
01:50
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:52
Now fast-forward 10 years.
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现在让我们快进十年。
01:55
In February this year,
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今年二月份时，
01:58
I saw this report.
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我看到了这份报道。
02:02
This here report basically concludes
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其中主要提到了
02:06
that one-third of the ice
on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains
on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains
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兴都库什-喜马拉雅山区
三分之一的冰川
三分之一的冰川
02:12
could melt by the end of the century.
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在本世纪末之前将完全消融。
02:15
But that's only if,
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但这发生的前提是，
02:17
if we are able to contain global warming
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我们设法将全球变暖控制在
02:20
to 1.5 degrees centigrade
over preindustrial levels.
over preindustrial levels.
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比前工业时期水平高
1.5 摄氏度的范围内。
1.5 摄氏度的范围内。
02:24
Otherwise, if we can't,
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如果我们失败了，
02:27
the glaciers would melt much faster.
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冰川将加速消融。
02:32
1.5 degrees Celsius. "No way," I thought.
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1.5 度，我想，“这不可能。”
02:36
Even the Paris Agreement's
ambitious targets
ambitious targets
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即使是巴黎协定也只是立志
02:39
aimed to limit global warming
to two degrees centigrade.
to two degrees centigrade.
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把全球变暖控制在 2 摄氏度之内。
02:43
1.5 degrees centigrade is what they call
the best-case scenario.
the best-case scenario.
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1.5 度只是个理想状态。
02:49
"Now this can't be true," I thought.
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我想，“这不可能是真的。”
02:51
The Hindu Kush Himalaya region
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兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区
02:53
is the world's third-largest
repository of ice,
repository of ice,
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拥有世界上第三多的冰川，
02:57
after the North and South Poles.
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仅次于南北极。
02:59
That's why we are also called
the "Third Pole."
the "Third Pole."
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因此得名“第三极”。
03:02
There's a lot of ice in the region.
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该地区有大量冰川。
03:05
And yes, the glaciers, they are melting.
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而冰川正在消融。
03:08
We know that.
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这众所周知。
03:10
I have been to those in my country.
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我去过那里。
03:12
I've seen them, and yes, they are melting.
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亲眼所见，这些冰川的确正在消融。
03:14
They are vulnerable.
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它们很脆弱。
03:15
"But they can't be that vulnerable,"
I remember thinking.
I remember thinking.
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“但它们不可能这么脆弱。”
03:21
But what if they are?
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如果真的是这样呢？
03:23
What if our glaciers melt
much more quickly than I anticipate?
much more quickly than I anticipate?
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如果冰川比我预计的消融得更快呢？
03:28
What if our glaciers are much more
vulnerable than previously thought?
vulnerable than previously thought?
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如果冰川比我先前认为
的更不堪一击呢？
的更不堪一击呢？
03:32
And what if, as a result,
the glacial lakes --
the glacial lakes --
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如果那些由冰川融水
03:36
now these are lakes
that form when glaciers melt --
that form when glaciers melt --
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形成的冰川湖
03:39
what if those lakes burst
under the weight of additional water?
under the weight of additional water?
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由于水量过剩而决堤呢？
03:44
And what if those floods
cascade into other glacial lakes,
cascade into other glacial lakes,
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如果洪水涌进其他冰川湖
03:47
creating even bigger outbursts?
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从而导致了更猛烈的决堤呢？
03:50
That would create unprecedented
flash floods in my country.
flash floods in my country.
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在我的国家，这将造成
史无前例的洪灾，
史无前例的洪灾，
03:55
That would wreck my country.
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或将毁坏我的国家。
03:58
That would wreak havoc in my country.
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造成混乱和失序。
04:00
That would have the potential
to literally destroy our land,
to literally destroy our land,
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可能摧毁土地、
04:04
our livelihood, our way of life.
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生命以及生活。
04:10
So that report caught my attention
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所以这个报道不同于别的政治噱头
04:14
in ways that political stunts couldn't.
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引起了我的注意。
04:17
It was put together
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该报道是由
04:18
by the International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,
Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,
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总部设在尼泊尔的
04:23
which is based in Nepal.
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国际山区综合开发中心（ICIMOD）发表的。
04:25
Scientists and experts have studied
our glaciers for decades,
our glaciers for decades,
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科学家们已经对冰川研究了几十年，
04:30
and their report kept me awake at night,
agonizing about the bad news
agonizing about the bad news
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他们的报道使我夜不能寐，
对这个坏消息焦虑不已，
对这个坏消息焦虑不已，
04:35
and what it meant for my country
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不断思考这对我的国家和人们
04:37
and my people.
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意味着什么。
04:39
So after several sleepless nights,
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因此在数个不能成眠的夜晚之后，
04:41
I went to Nepal to visit ICIMOD.
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我去拜访了国际山区综合开发中心。
04:46
I found a team of highly competent
and dedicated scientists there,
and dedicated scientists there,
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我遇到了一支由高水平的具有
奉献精神的科学家组成的队伍，
奉献精神的科学家组成的队伍，
04:51
and here's what they told me.
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他们告诉我。
04:53
Number one:
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首先：
04:55
the Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers
have been melting for some time now.
have been melting for some time now.
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兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区
的冰川现在正在消融。
的冰川现在正在消融。
05:01
Take that glacier, for instance.
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比方说，
05:05
It's on Mount Everest.
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珠峰上的冰川。
05:07
As you can see, this once massive glacier
has already lost much of its ice.
has already lost much of its ice.
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虽然曾经体量很大，
但现在却大大缩减了。
但现在却大大缩减了。
05:14
Number two:
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其次：
05:15
the glaciers are now melting
much more quickly --
much more quickly --
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现在冰川消融得更快了，
05:17
so quickly, in fact, that at just
1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,
1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,
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以至于如果气温上升 1.5 度
05:24
one-third of the glaciers would melt.
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三分之一的冰川将会消失。
05:28
At two degrees centigrade
of global warming,
of global warming,
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气温上升 2 度，
05:31
half the glaciers would disappear.
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一半的冰川将不复存在。
05:33
And if current trends were to continue,
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如果该趋势持续下去，
05:36
a full two-thirds
of our glaciers would vanish.
of our glaciers would vanish.
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三分之二的冰川将不见踪影。
05:42
Number three:
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第三：
05:44
global warming means that our mountains
receive more rain and less snow ...
receive more rain and less snow ...
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全球变暖还意味着山区降雨更多，
降雪却更少。
降雪却更少。
05:50
and, unlike snowfall, rain melts ice,
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不同于降雪，雨水会融化冰，
05:54
which just hurts
the health of our glaciers.
the health of our glaciers.
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进一步危及冰川。
05:58
Number four:
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第四：
06:01
pollution in the region has increased
the amount of black carbon
the amount of black carbon
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该地区的污染使得黑碳排放增加，
06:04
that's deposited on our glaciers.
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这些黑碳会沉积在冰川表面。
06:06
Black carbon is like soot.
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和煤烟类似。
06:08
Black carbon absorbs heat
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黑碳可以吸收热量
06:10
and just accelerates
the melting of glaciers.
the melting of glaciers.
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从而加速冰川消融。
06:14
To summarize,
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总结一下，
06:16
our glaciers are melting rapidly,
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冰川正在迅速消融，
06:19
and global warming is making them
melt much more quickly.
melt much more quickly.
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全球变暖则加速了这一过程。
06:25
But what does this mean?
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这意味着什么呢？
06:27
It means that the 240 million people
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这表明住在兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区的
06:32
who live in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya region --
Himalaya region --
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2 亿 4 千万人，
06:34
in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India,
China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar
China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar
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也就是居住在阿富汗、巴基斯坦、
中国、印度、尼泊尔、孟加拉国、缅甸
中国、印度、尼泊尔、孟加拉国、缅甸
06:40
and my own beloved country, Bhutan --
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以及我亲爱的祖国
——不丹的人们——
——不丹的人们——
06:42
these people will be directly affected.
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将受到直接影响。
06:46
When glaciers melt,
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当冰川消融，
06:48
when there's more rain and less snow,
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降雨增加，降雪减少，
06:50
there will be huge changes
in the way water behaves.
in the way water behaves.
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水的运作将发生重大变化。
06:55
There will be more extremes:
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那会出现更多的极端情况：
06:58
more intense rain,
more flash floods, more landslides,
more flash floods, more landslides,
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这会带来更密集的降雨，
更频繁的暴洪和塌方，
更频繁的暴洪和塌方，
07:01
more glacial lake outburst floods.
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导致更多冰川湖泊决堤。
07:04
All this will cause
unimaginable destruction
unimaginable destruction
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在这个已经有世界上部分
最贫穷的人口的地区，
最贫穷的人口的地区，
07:09
in a region that already has
some of the poorest people on earth.
some of the poorest people on earth.
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其破坏力不可估量。
07:15
But it's not just the people
in the immediate region
in the immediate region
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但不仅仅是上述地区的居民
07:18
who'll be affected.
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会受到影响。
07:20
People living downstream
will also be hit hard.
will also be hit hard.
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生活在下游的居民也将会受到影响。
07:25
That's because 10 of their major rivers
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因为有 10 条主要河流
07:30
originate in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya mountains.
Himalaya mountains.
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都发源于兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区。
07:34
These rivers provide
critical water for agriculture
critical water for agriculture
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这些河流为生活在下游
07:38
and drinking water
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的 16 亿居民带来了宝贵的
07:40
to more than 1.6 billion people
living downstream.
living downstream.
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农业用水和饮用水。
07:45
That's one in five humans.
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该地区拥有世界上 1/5 的人口。
07:49
That's why the Hindu Kush
Himalaya mountains
Himalaya mountains
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这就是为什么兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区
07:51
are also called
the "water towers of Asia."
the "water towers of Asia."
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也被誉为“亚洲水塔”的原因。
07:55
But when glaciers melt,
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但倘若冰川消融，
07:58
when monsoons turn severe,
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降雨量显著增加，
07:59
those rivers will obviously flood,
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造成河流泛滥，
08:03
so there will be deluges
when water is not required
when water is not required
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带来不合时宜的暴雨。
08:06
and droughts will be very common,
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在雨水少的季节，
08:09
when water is desperately required.
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又产生经常性的旱灾。
08:11
In short, Asia's water tower
will be broken,
will be broken,
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总之，亚洲水塔的崩坏
08:16
and that will be disastrous
for one-fifth of humanity.
for one-fifth of humanity.
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会为世界 1/5 的人口
带来灾难性的后果。
带来灾难性的后果。
08:26
Should the rest of the world care?
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世界上的其他人应该关心吗？
08:29
Should you, for instance, care?
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你应该关心吗？
08:32
Remember, I didn't care
when I heard that the Maldives
when I heard that the Maldives
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还记得吗，在听到马尔代夫
即将消失的不幸时
即将消失的不幸时
08:35
could disappear underwater.
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我漠不关心。
08:37
And that is the crux
of the problem, isn't it?
of the problem, isn't it?
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但这正是问题的关键，不是吗？
08:40
We don't care.
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除非我们个人受到了影响，
08:44
We don't care until
we are personally affected.
we are personally affected.
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否则我们从不关心。
08:47
I mean, we know.
We know climate change is real.
We know climate change is real.
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我是说，我们都知道，
都了解全球变暖是真实的。
都了解全球变暖是真实的。
08:50
We know that we face
drastic and dramatic change.
drastic and dramatic change.
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明白我们将经历翻天覆地的改变。
08:53
We know that it is coming fast.
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懂得这一天很快就会到来。
08:54
Yet most of us
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然而我们大多数人
08:57
act as if everything were normal.
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表现得好像什么都没发生一样。
09:02
So we must care,
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但我们所有人，
09:04
all of us,
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必须关心，
09:06
and if you can't care for those who are
affected by the melting of glaciers,
affected by the melting of glaciers,
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即使你不关心那些正在
遭受冰川消融之害的人们，
遭受冰川消融之害的人们，
09:11
you should at least care for yourself.
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你至少应该关心自己。
09:14
That's because the Hindu Kush
Himalaya mountains --
Himalaya mountains --
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因为兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区
09:17
the entire region
is like the pulse of the planet.
is like the pulse of the planet.
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就好像是整个地球的脉搏。
09:22
If the region falls sick,
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如果这个地区病入膏肓，
09:25
the entire planet will eventually suffer.
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整个地球都不会好过。
09:29
And right now,
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现在，
09:30
with our glaciers melting rapidly,
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这个冰川正在迅速消融的地方，
09:33
the region is not just sick --
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这个还有药可医的地区，
09:35
it is crying out for help.
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正在祈求着帮助。
09:39
And how will it affect
the rest of the world?
the rest of the world?
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它会对世界上其他地方
造成什么样的影响呢？
造成什么样的影响呢？
09:42
One obvious scenario
is the potential destabilization
is the potential destabilization
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一个明显的可能情景就是潜在的不稳定
09:46
caused by tens of millions
of climate refugees,
of climate refugees,
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将会带来成百上千万的气候难民。
09:50
who'll be forced to move
because they have no or little water,
because they have no or little water,
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冰川消融造成的水资源短缺
09:53
or because their livelihoods
have been destroyed
have been destroyed
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或者生计被毁，
09:56
by the melting of glaciers.
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使得他们不得不离开故土。
09:59
Another scenario we can't take lightly
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另一个不能忽视的情况
10:03
is the potential of conflict over water
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是三个拥有核武器的国家，
10:07
and the political destabilization
in a region that has three nuclear powers:
in a region that has three nuclear powers:
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可能会因冰川消融形成潜在
的水资源冲突和政治动荡：
的水资源冲突和政治动荡：
10:14
China, India, Pakistan.
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它们是中国、印度和巴基斯坦。
10:21
I believe that the situation
in our region is grave enough
in our region is grave enough
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我相信既然我们这个地区
的情况已经如此糟糕，
的情况已经如此糟糕，
10:26
to warrant the creation
of a new intergovernmental agency.
of a new intergovernmental agency.
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一个政府间代理机构
的创立势在必行。
的创立势在必行。
10:32
So as a native
from that part of the world,
from that part of the world,
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作为该地区的一份子，
10:35
I want to propose here, today,
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今天在这里，我想提出倡议，
10:39
the establishment
of the Third Pole Council,
of the Third Pole Council,
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建立一个“第三极委员会”，
10:43
a high-level,
intergovernmental organization
intergovernmental organization
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以这个政府间的高级别合作机构
10:47
tasked with the singular responsibility
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来肩负保护世界第三大冰川容量的
10:51
of protecting the world's
third-largest repository of ice.
third-largest repository of ice.
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这个重大责任。
10:55
A Third Pole Council
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该“第三极委员会”
10:57
would consist of all eight countries
located in the region
located in the region
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将会吸纳该地区的所有八个国家
11:01
as member countries,
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作为成员国，
11:03
as equal member countries,
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地位平等的成员国，
11:05
and could also include
representative organizations
representative organizations
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并接受在该地区有相关切身利益的国家
11:08
and other countries
who have vested interests in the region
who have vested interests in the region
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和代表性组织
11:12
as non-voting members.
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作为无表决权成员。
11:13
But the big idea
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但大的理念
11:15
is to get all stakeholders together
to work together.
to work together.
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是让所有利益相关团体共同协作，
11:19
To work together to monitor
the health of the glaciers;
the health of the glaciers;
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关注冰川现状
11:24
to work together to shape and implement
policies to protect our glaciers,
policies to protect our glaciers,
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制定和贯彻保护冰川的政策，
11:29
and, by extension,
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跟进一步，
11:30
to protect the billions of people
who depend on our glaciers.
who depend on our glaciers.
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保护那些赖以生存的几十亿人民。
11:37
We have to work together,
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我们必须共同努力，
11:40
because thinking globally,
acting locally ...
acting locally ...
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因为全球思考，地方行动
11:46
does not work.
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只会收效甚微。
11:48
We've tried that in Bhutan.
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在不丹已经有过类似的尝试
11:50
We've made immense sacrifices
to act locally ...
to act locally ...
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我们为地方行动做出了很大的牺牲，
11:56
and while individual localized efforts
will continue to be important,
will continue to be important,
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然而尽管个体地方化的努力很重要，
12:01
they cannot stand up
to the onslaught of climate change.
to the onslaught of climate change.
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但他们个体的力量却无法
与全球气候变暖抗衡。
与全球气候变暖抗衡。
12:05
To stand up to climate change,
we must work together.
we must work together.
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因此，为应对气候变暖，
我们必须共同努力。
我们必须共同努力。
12:10
We must think globally and act regionally.
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必须全球思考，区域行动。
12:15
Our entire region must come together,
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整个地区都必须携起手来，
12:18
to work together,
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共同努力，
12:20
to fight climate change together,
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共同抵御气候变暖，
12:22
to make our voices heard together.
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让世界听到我们的诉求。
12:27
And that includes India and China.
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中国和印度
12:32
They must step up their game.
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也需要参与进来。
12:36
They must take the ownership
of the fight to protect our glaciers.
of the fight to protect our glaciers.
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他们必须共同保护冰川。
12:41
And for that, these two countries,
these two powerful giants,
these two powerful giants,
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与此同时，这两大国家
12:44
must reduce their own greenhouse gases,
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也必须减少温室气体排放，
12:48
control their pollution,
and lead the fight.
and lead the fight.
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控制污染，起带头作用。
12:53
Lead the global fight
against climate change.
against climate change.
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领导全球对抗气候变暖的斗争。
12:57
And all that with a renewed
sense of urgency.
sense of urgency.
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这件事迫在眉睫。
13:00
Only then -- and that, too, only maybe --
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只有这样，
13:04
will our region
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这个区域
13:06
and other regions
that depend on our glaciers
that depend on our glaciers
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和依赖于冰川的其他区域
13:09
have any chance to avoid
major catastrophes.
major catastrophes.
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才有可能避免重大灾难。
13:15
Time is running out.
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时间有限。
13:18
We must act together, now.
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现在亟待行动。
13:22
Otherwise, the next time
Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,
Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,
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否则，下次尼泊尔在珠峰召开的内阁会议
13:28
that spectacular backdrop ...
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其背景
13:32
may look quite different.
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将会大不相同。
13:37
And if that happens,
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如果这真的发生了，
13:40
if our glaciers melt,
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冰川消融
13:42
rising sea levels
could well drown the Maldives.
could well drown the Maldives.
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造成的海平面上升将淹没马尔代夫，
13:47
And while they can hold
their cabinet meetings underwater
their cabinet meetings underwater
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而只有当马尔代夫还继续存在，
13:51
to send an SOS to the world,
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他们在水下召开的
13:54
their country can keep existing
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向全世界呼救的内阁会议
13:56
only if their islands keep existing.
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才得以发生。
14:03
The Maldives are still distant, away.
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马尔代夫依旧很远。
14:09
Their islands are distant
from where I live.
from where I live.
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依旧和不丹远隔重洋。
14:13
But now, I pay close attention
to what happens out there.
to what happens out there.
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但现在我却在密切关注那里发生了什么。
14:21
Thank you very much.
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谢谢大家。
14:24
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tshering Tobgay - Prime Minister of BhutanActing on his mandate to move Bhutan into the 21st century, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay is transforming his nation -- while maintaining its “Gross National Happiness.”
Why you should listen
Tshering Tobgay went from civil servant to politician to prime minister -- all the while maintaining his star social media profile in one of Asia’s most progressive emerging states. As the second democratically elected Prime Minister of Bhutan, Tobgay continues to emphasize his country’s core value of happiness.
Bhutan's acclaimed "Gross National Happiness" index prioritizes well-being over financial growth. But Tobgay also seeks to solve Bhutan's great challenges: unemployment, poverty, gaps in education and infrastructure. WIth a foundation of optimism, his administration and the country's young democracy hope to become a paragon of stability in the developing world.
Tshering Tobgay | Speaker | TED.com