TEDSummit 2019
Tshering Tobgay: An urgent call to protect the world's "Third Pole"
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,689,135 views
The Hindu Kush Himalaya region is the world's third-largest repository of ice, after the North and South Poles -- and if current melting rates continue, two-thirds of its glaciers could be gone by the end of this century. What will happen if we let them melt away? Environmentalist and former Prime Minister of Bhutan Tshering Tobgay shares the latest from the "water towers of Asia," making an urgent call to create an intergovernmental agency to protect the glaciers -- and save the nearly two billion people downstream from catastrophic flooding that would destroy land and livelihoods.
Tshering Tobgay - Prime Minister of Bhutan
Acting on his mandate to move Bhutan into the 21st century, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay is transforming his nation -- while maintaining its “Gross National Happiness.” Full bio
Acting on his mandate to move Bhutan into the 21st century, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay is transforming his nation -- while maintaining its “Gross National Happiness.” Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
On the 17th of October, 2009,
0
1531
4667
00:18
President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives
did something unusual.
did something unusual.
1
6222
4468
00:23
He held his cabinet meeting underwater.
2
11811
3563
00:31
He literally took his ministers
scuba diving, as it were,
scuba diving, as it were,
3
19614
4516
00:36
to warn the world
that his country could drown
that his country could drown
4
24154
4479
00:40
unless we control global warming.
5
28657
2322
00:43
Now I don't know whether he got
his message across to the world or not,
his message across to the world or not,
6
31741
3405
00:47
but he certainly caught mine.
7
35170
1759
00:49
I saw a political stunt.
8
37908
1960
00:52
You see, I'm a politician,
9
40901
1676
00:54
and I notice these things.
10
42601
1919
00:57
And let's be honest,
11
45108
1643
00:58
the Maldives are distant
from where I come from --
from where I come from --
12
46775
3975
01:02
my country is Bhutan --
13
50774
1719
01:04
so I didn't lose any sleep
over their impending fate.
over their impending fate.
14
52517
3741
01:09
Barely two months later,
I saw another political stunt.
I saw another political stunt.
15
57375
4263
01:14
This time, the prime minister of Nepal,
16
62234
3864
01:18
he held his cabinet meeting
on Mount Everest.
on Mount Everest.
17
66122
3723
01:23
He took all his ministers all the way up
to the base camp of Everest
to the base camp of Everest
18
71102
5326
01:28
to warn the world
19
76452
1942
01:30
that the Himalayan glaciers were melting.
20
78418
1961
01:33
Now did that worry me?
21
81170
1699
01:34
You bet it did.
22
82893
1246
01:36
I live in the Himalayas.
23
84163
1364
01:39
But did I lose any sleep over his message?
24
87598
2532
01:43
No.
25
91205
1150
01:44
I wasn't ready to let a political stunt
interfere with my beauty sleep.
interfere with my beauty sleep.
26
92748
5831
01:50
(Laughter)
27
98952
1770
01:52
Now fast-forward 10 years.
28
100746
1682
01:55
In February this year,
29
103865
2521
01:58
I saw this report.
30
106410
2280
02:02
This here report basically concludes
31
110163
3991
02:06
that one-third of the ice
on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains
on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains
32
114178
6154
02:12
could melt by the end of the century.
33
120356
2113
02:15
But that's only if,
34
123085
2295
02:17
if we are able to contain global warming
35
125404
3207
02:20
to 1.5 degrees centigrade
over preindustrial levels.
over preindustrial levels.
36
128635
4281
02:24
Otherwise, if we can't,
37
132940
2870
02:27
the glaciers would melt much faster.
38
135834
1983
02:32
1.5 degrees Celsius. "No way," I thought.
39
140766
3383
02:36
Even the Paris Agreement's
ambitious targets
ambitious targets
40
144173
3317
02:39
aimed to limit global warming
to two degrees centigrade.
to two degrees centigrade.
41
147514
3236
02:43
1.5 degrees centigrade is what they call
the best-case scenario.
the best-case scenario.
42
151317
4505
02:49
"Now this can't be true," I thought.
43
157435
2049
02:51
The Hindu Kush Himalaya region
44
159508
2154
02:53
is the world's third-largest
repository of ice,
repository of ice,
45
161686
3826
02:57
after the North and South Poles.
46
165536
1650
02:59
That's why we are also called
the "Third Pole."
the "Third Pole."
47
167210
2571
03:02
There's a lot of ice in the region.
48
170361
2166
03:05
And yes, the glaciers, they are melting.
49
173377
2483
03:08
We know that.
50
176380
1155
03:10
I have been to those in my country.
51
178253
1839
03:12
I've seen them, and yes, they are melting.
52
180116
2101
03:14
They are vulnerable.
53
182241
1557
03:15
"But they can't be that vulnerable,"
I remember thinking.
I remember thinking.
54
183822
2912
03:21
But what if they are?
55
189275
1499
03:23
What if our glaciers melt
much more quickly than I anticipate?
much more quickly than I anticipate?
56
191739
3936
03:28
What if our glaciers are much more
vulnerable than previously thought?
vulnerable than previously thought?
57
196320
4624
03:32
And what if, as a result,
the glacial lakes --
the glacial lakes --
58
200968
3471
03:36
now these are lakes
that form when glaciers melt --
that form when glaciers melt --
59
204463
2905
03:39
what if those lakes burst
under the weight of additional water?
under the weight of additional water?
60
207392
3841
03:44
And what if those floods
cascade into other glacial lakes,
cascade into other glacial lakes,
61
212585
2769
03:47
creating even bigger outbursts?
62
215378
2103
03:50
That would create unprecedented
flash floods in my country.
flash floods in my country.
63
218452
3775
03:55
That would wreck my country.
64
223113
2158
03:58
That would wreak havoc in my country.
65
226302
2612
04:00
That would have the potential
to literally destroy our land,
to literally destroy our land,
66
228938
3540
04:04
our livelihood, our way of life.
67
232502
2507
04:10
So that report caught my attention
68
238491
3880
04:14
in ways that political stunts couldn't.
69
242395
3340
04:17
It was put together
70
245759
1189
04:18
by the International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,
Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,
71
246972
4565
04:23
which is based in Nepal.
72
251561
1285
04:25
Scientists and experts have studied
our glaciers for decades,
our glaciers for decades,
73
253600
4715
04:30
and their report kept me awake at night,
agonizing about the bad news
agonizing about the bad news
74
258339
4721
04:35
and what it meant for my country
75
263084
2311
04:37
and my people.
76
265419
1150
04:39
So after several sleepless nights,
77
267750
2223
04:41
I went to Nepal to visit ICIMOD.
78
269997
3173
04:46
I found a team of highly competent
and dedicated scientists there,
and dedicated scientists there,
79
274892
4404
04:51
and here's what they told me.
80
279320
1619
04:53
Number one:
81
281828
1150
04:55
the Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers
have been melting for some time now.
have been melting for some time now.
82
283706
4270
05:01
Take that glacier, for instance.
83
289716
3014
05:05
It's on Mount Everest.
84
293278
1818
05:07
As you can see, this once massive glacier
has already lost much of its ice.
has already lost much of its ice.
85
295120
5484
05:14
Number two:
86
302029
1509
05:15
the glaciers are now melting
much more quickly --
much more quickly --
87
303562
2350
05:17
so quickly, in fact, that at just
1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,
1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,
88
305936
6249
05:24
one-third of the glaciers would melt.
89
312209
2682
05:28
At two degrees centigrade
of global warming,
of global warming,
90
316084
3221
05:31
half the glaciers would disappear.
91
319329
2462
05:33
And if current trends were to continue,
92
321815
3126
05:36
a full two-thirds
of our glaciers would vanish.
of our glaciers would vanish.
93
324965
3469
05:42
Number three:
94
330339
1150
05:44
global warming means that our mountains
receive more rain and less snow ...
receive more rain and less snow ...
95
332295
5174
05:50
and, unlike snowfall, rain melts ice,
96
338779
3702
05:54
which just hurts
the health of our glaciers.
the health of our glaciers.
97
342505
2777
05:58
Number four:
98
346397
1150
06:01
pollution in the region has increased
the amount of black carbon
the amount of black carbon
99
349457
3001
06:04
that's deposited on our glaciers.
100
352482
2160
06:06
Black carbon is like soot.
101
354666
1355
06:08
Black carbon absorbs heat
102
356045
2301
06:10
and just accelerates
the melting of glaciers.
the melting of glaciers.
103
358370
2404
06:14
To summarize,
104
362243
1150
06:16
our glaciers are melting rapidly,
105
364344
2248
06:19
and global warming is making them
melt much more quickly.
melt much more quickly.
106
367775
3476
06:25
But what does this mean?
107
373036
1326
06:27
It means that the 240 million people
108
375539
4771
06:32
who live in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya region --
Himalaya region --
109
380334
2509
06:34
in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India,
China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar
China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar
110
382867
5252
06:40
and my own beloved country, Bhutan --
111
388143
2626
06:42
these people will be directly affected.
112
390793
2166
06:46
When glaciers melt,
113
394932
1943
06:48
when there's more rain and less snow,
114
396899
1917
06:50
there will be huge changes
in the way water behaves.
in the way water behaves.
115
398840
4277
06:55
There will be more extremes:
116
403681
1756
06:58
more intense rain,
more flash floods, more landslides,
more flash floods, more landslides,
117
406800
3166
07:01
more glacial lake outburst floods.
118
409990
2938
07:04
All this will cause
unimaginable destruction
unimaginable destruction
119
412952
4412
07:09
in a region that already has
some of the poorest people on earth.
some of the poorest people on earth.
120
417388
4571
07:15
But it's not just the people
in the immediate region
in the immediate region
121
423971
2826
07:18
who'll be affected.
122
426821
1289
07:20
People living downstream
will also be hit hard.
will also be hit hard.
123
428134
3471
07:25
That's because 10 of their major rivers
124
433619
4699
07:30
originate in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya mountains.
Himalaya mountains.
125
438342
2844
07:34
These rivers provide
critical water for agriculture
critical water for agriculture
126
442031
4533
07:38
and drinking water
127
446588
1454
07:40
to more than 1.6 billion people
living downstream.
living downstream.
128
448066
5004
07:45
That's one in five humans.
129
453094
2484
07:49
That's why the Hindu Kush
Himalaya mountains
Himalaya mountains
130
457149
2105
07:51
are also called
the "water towers of Asia."
the "water towers of Asia."
131
459278
2435
07:55
But when glaciers melt,
132
463815
1404
07:58
when monsoons turn severe,
133
466213
1617
07:59
those rivers will obviously flood,
134
467854
2754
08:03
so there will be deluges
when water is not required
when water is not required
135
471432
2969
08:06
and droughts will be very common,
136
474425
2731
08:09
when water is desperately required.
137
477180
1943
08:11
In short, Asia's water tower
will be broken,
will be broken,
138
479147
5795
08:16
and that will be disastrous
for one-fifth of humanity.
for one-fifth of humanity.
139
484966
6071
08:26
Should the rest of the world care?
140
494765
1642
08:29
Should you, for instance, care?
141
497899
2151
08:32
Remember, I didn't care
when I heard that the Maldives
when I heard that the Maldives
142
500472
3173
08:35
could disappear underwater.
143
503669
1851
08:37
And that is the crux
of the problem, isn't it?
of the problem, isn't it?
144
505544
3126
08:40
We don't care.
145
508694
1579
08:44
We don't care until
we are personally affected.
we are personally affected.
146
512428
2615
08:47
I mean, we know.
We know climate change is real.
We know climate change is real.
147
515729
2691
08:50
We know that we face
drastic and dramatic change.
drastic and dramatic change.
148
518444
2568
08:53
We know that it is coming fast.
149
521036
1490
08:54
Yet most of us
150
522550
1809
08:57
act as if everything were normal.
151
525662
3285
09:02
So we must care,
152
530359
1365
09:04
all of us,
153
532726
1582
09:06
and if you can't care for those who are
affected by the melting of glaciers,
affected by the melting of glaciers,
154
534332
4714
09:11
you should at least care for yourself.
155
539070
1963
09:14
That's because the Hindu Kush
Himalaya mountains --
Himalaya mountains --
156
542193
3073
09:17
the entire region
is like the pulse of the planet.
is like the pulse of the planet.
157
545290
3451
09:22
If the region falls sick,
158
550819
2372
09:25
the entire planet will eventually suffer.
159
553215
2745
09:29
And right now,
160
557164
1150
09:30
with our glaciers melting rapidly,
161
558970
2676
09:33
the region is not just sick --
162
561670
1841
09:35
it is crying out for help.
163
563535
1826
09:39
And how will it affect
the rest of the world?
the rest of the world?
164
567810
2444
09:42
One obvious scenario
is the potential destabilization
is the potential destabilization
165
570278
4386
09:46
caused by tens of millions
of climate refugees,
of climate refugees,
166
574688
3874
09:50
who'll be forced to move
because they have no or little water,
because they have no or little water,
167
578586
3177
09:53
or because their livelihoods
have been destroyed
have been destroyed
168
581787
2961
09:56
by the melting of glaciers.
169
584772
1703
09:59
Another scenario we can't take lightly
170
587391
3725
10:03
is the potential of conflict over water
171
591140
2926
10:07
and the political destabilization
in a region that has three nuclear powers:
in a region that has three nuclear powers:
172
595409
6920
10:14
China, India, Pakistan.
173
602353
4222
10:21
I believe that the situation
in our region is grave enough
in our region is grave enough
174
609175
5264
10:26
to warrant the creation
of a new intergovernmental agency.
of a new intergovernmental agency.
175
614463
4617
10:32
So as a native
from that part of the world,
from that part of the world,
176
620022
3855
10:35
I want to propose here, today,
177
623901
3215
10:39
the establishment
of the Third Pole Council,
of the Third Pole Council,
178
627140
3063
10:43
a high-level,
intergovernmental organization
intergovernmental organization
179
631846
3496
10:47
tasked with the singular responsibility
180
635366
3664
10:51
of protecting the world's
third-largest repository of ice.
third-largest repository of ice.
181
639054
3395
10:55
A Third Pole Council
182
643720
2128
10:57
would consist of all eight countries
located in the region
located in the region
183
645872
3947
11:01
as member countries,
184
649843
1258
11:03
as equal member countries,
185
651125
2638
11:05
and could also include
representative organizations
representative organizations
186
653787
2746
11:08
and other countries
who have vested interests in the region
who have vested interests in the region
187
656557
3754
11:12
as non-voting members.
188
660335
1556
11:13
But the big idea
189
661915
2054
11:15
is to get all stakeholders together
to work together.
to work together.
190
663993
3563
11:19
To work together to monitor
the health of the glaciers;
the health of the glaciers;
191
667580
4544
11:24
to work together to shape and implement
policies to protect our glaciers,
policies to protect our glaciers,
192
672148
4880
11:29
and, by extension,
193
677052
1751
11:30
to protect the billions of people
who depend on our glaciers.
who depend on our glaciers.
194
678827
5124
11:37
We have to work together,
195
685602
1407
11:40
because thinking globally,
acting locally ...
acting locally ...
196
688783
4571
11:46
does not work.
197
694552
1439
11:48
We've tried that in Bhutan.
198
696015
1475
11:50
We've made immense sacrifices
to act locally ...
to act locally ...
199
698463
4257
11:56
and while individual localized efforts
will continue to be important,
will continue to be important,
200
704705
5126
12:01
they cannot stand up
to the onslaught of climate change.
to the onslaught of climate change.
201
709855
3453
12:05
To stand up to climate change,
we must work together.
we must work together.
202
713677
3730
12:10
We must think globally and act regionally.
203
718272
3659
12:15
Our entire region must come together,
204
723017
3915
12:18
to work together,
205
726956
1542
12:20
to fight climate change together,
206
728522
1962
12:22
to make our voices heard together.
207
730508
2744
12:27
And that includes India and China.
208
735751
4317
12:32
They must step up their game.
209
740836
2065
12:36
They must take the ownership
of the fight to protect our glaciers.
of the fight to protect our glaciers.
210
744197
4682
12:41
And for that, these two countries,
these two powerful giants,
these two powerful giants,
211
749482
3062
12:44
must reduce their own greenhouse gases,
212
752568
2851
12:48
control their pollution,
and lead the fight.
and lead the fight.
213
756646
2829
12:53
Lead the global fight
against climate change.
against climate change.
214
761134
3294
12:57
And all that with a renewed
sense of urgency.
sense of urgency.
215
765950
2936
13:00
Only then -- and that, too, only maybe --
216
768910
3998
13:04
will our region
217
772932
1876
13:06
and other regions
that depend on our glaciers
that depend on our glaciers
218
774832
2436
13:09
have any chance to avoid
major catastrophes.
major catastrophes.
219
777292
4563
13:15
Time is running out.
220
783554
1444
13:18
We must act together, now.
221
786257
3269
13:22
Otherwise, the next time
Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,
Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,
222
790400
6499
13:28
that spectacular backdrop ...
223
796923
2303
13:32
may look quite different.
224
800534
1484
13:37
And if that happens,
225
805316
1150
13:40
if our glaciers melt,
226
808031
2213
13:42
rising sea levels
could well drown the Maldives.
could well drown the Maldives.
227
810268
3405
13:47
And while they can hold
their cabinet meetings underwater
their cabinet meetings underwater
228
815229
4322
13:51
to send an SOS to the world,
229
819575
2651
13:54
their country can keep existing
230
822250
2429
13:56
only if their islands keep existing.
231
824703
4380
14:03
The Maldives are still distant, away.
232
831256
4675
14:09
Their islands are distant
from where I live.
from where I live.
233
837090
3579
14:13
But now, I pay close attention
to what happens out there.
to what happens out there.
234
841927
5571
14:21
Thank you very much.
235
849259
2764
14:24
(Applause)
236
852047
4460
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tshering Tobgay - Prime Minister of BhutanActing on his mandate to move Bhutan into the 21st century, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay is transforming his nation -- while maintaining its “Gross National Happiness.”
Why you should listen
Tshering Tobgay went from civil servant to politician to prime minister -- all the while maintaining his star social media profile in one of Asia’s most progressive emerging states. As the second democratically elected Prime Minister of Bhutan, Tobgay continues to emphasize his country’s core value of happiness.
Bhutan's acclaimed "Gross National Happiness" index prioritizes well-being over financial growth. But Tobgay also seeks to solve Bhutan's great challenges: unemployment, poverty, gaps in education and infrastructure. WIth a foundation of optimism, his administration and the country's young democracy hope to become a paragon of stability in the developing world.
Tshering Tobgay | Speaker | TED.com