TED2018
Stephen Webb: Where are all the aliens?
Stiven Veb (Stephen Webb): Gde su svi vanzemaljci?
Filmed:
Readability: 5
5,111,570 views
Univerzum je neverovatno star, zapanjujuće ogoroman i naseljen bilionama planeta - stoga gde su svi vanzemaljci? Astronom Stiven Veb ima objašnjenje: sami smo u univerzumu. U prosvetljujućem govoru, on detaljno objašnjava značajne barijere koje bi planeta trebalo da probije da bi bila domaćin vanzemaljskoj civilizaciji - i potvrdi lepotu naše potencijalne kosmičke usamljenosti. "Tišina univerzuma viče: 'Mi smo bića kojima se posrećilo'", kaže Veb.
Stephen Webb - Writer, scientist
Stephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species. Full bio
Stephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I saw a UFO once.
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Video sam jednom NLO.
00:15
I was eight or nine,
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Imao sam osam ili devet godina,
00:17
playing in the street with a friend
who was a couple of years older,
who was a couple of years older,
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igrao sam se na ulici sa drugom
koji je bio par godina stariji,
koji je bio par godina stariji,
00:20
and we saw a featureless silver disc
hovering over the houses.
hovering over the houses.
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i videli smo običan srebrni disk
kako lebdi iznad kuća.
kako lebdi iznad kuća.
00:25
We watched it for a few seconds,
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Gledali smo ga par sekundi,
00:27
and then it shot away incredibly quickly.
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a onda je nestao neverovatno brzo.
00:30
Even as a kid,
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Čak i kao dete,
00:31
I got angry it was ignoring
the laws of physics.
the laws of physics.
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iznervirao sam se jer je
ignorisao zakone fizike.
ignorisao zakone fizike.
00:35
We ran inside to tell the grown-ups,
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Utrčali smo unutra da kažemo odraslima,
00:37
and they were skeptical --
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a oni su bili skeptični -
00:39
you'd be skeptical too, right?
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vi biste isto bili skeptični, zar ne?
00:42
I got my own back a few years later:
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Dobio sam svoje nekoliko godina kasnije,
00:43
one of those grown-ups told me,
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jedan od onih odraslih mi je rekao:
00:45
"Last night I saw a flying saucer.
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"Sinoć sam video leteći tanjir.
00:47
I was coming out of the pub
after a few drinks."
after a few drinks."
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Izlazio sam iz paba nakon par pića."
00:49
I stopped him there.
I said, "I can explain that sighting."
I said, "I can explain that sighting."
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Zaustavio sam ga.
Rekao sam: "Mogu ti objasniti to viđenje."
Rekao sam: "Mogu ti objasniti to viđenje."
00:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Psiholozi su pokazali da ne možemo
da verujemo našim mozgovima
da verujemo našim mozgovima
00:53
Psychologists have shown
we can't trust our brains
we can't trust our brains
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00:56
to tell the truth.
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da kažu istinu.
00:57
It's easy to fool ourselves.
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Lako je da se prevarimo.
00:59
I saw something,
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Video sam nešto,
01:01
but what's more likely --
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ali šta je više verovatno -
01:02
that I saw an alien spacecraft,
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da sam video vanzemaljski svemirski brod,
01:04
or that my brain misinterpreted
the data my eyes were giving it?
the data my eyes were giving it?
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ili da je mozak loše protumačio podatke
koje su mu moje oči davale?
koje su mu moje oči davale?
01:10
Ever since though I've wondered:
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Još od tada se pitam:
01:11
Why don't we see
flying saucers flitting around?
flying saucers flitting around?
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"Zašto ne vidimo leteće tanjire
kako lete unaokolo?"
kako lete unaokolo?"
01:14
At the very least,
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Na kraju krajeva,
01:16
why don't we see life
out there in the cosmos?
out there in the cosmos?
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zašto ne vidimo tragove života u kosmosu?
01:18
It's a puzzle,
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To je zagonetka,
01:20
and I've discussed it
with dozens of experts
with dozens of experts
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a diskutovao sam sa desetinama eksperata
01:22
from different disciplines
over the past three decades.
over the past three decades.
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iz različitih disciplina
protekle tri decenije.
protekle tri decenije.
01:25
And there's no consensus.
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I nema kosenzusa.
01:27
Frank Drake began searching
for alien signals back in 1960 --
for alien signals back in 1960 --
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Frenk Drejk je počeo potragu
za vanzemaljskim signalima još 1960. -
za vanzemaljskim signalima još 1960. -
01:32
so far, nothing.
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do sada, ništa.
01:34
And with each passing year,
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A sa svakom godinom koja prođe,
01:35
this nonobservation,
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ovo neposmatranje,
01:37
this lack of evidence
for any alien activity gets more puzzling
for any alien activity gets more puzzling
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nemanje dokaza ikakve vanzemaljske
aktivnosti postaje još više zbunjujuće
aktivnosti postaje još više zbunjujuće
01:42
because we should see them, shouldn't we?
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jer bi trebalo da ih vidimo, zar ne?
01:47
The universe is 13.8 billion years old,
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Univerzum ima 13,8 milijardi godina,
01:50
give or take.
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manje više.
01:52
If we represent the age
of the universe by one year,
of the universe by one year,
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Ako predstavimo starost
univerzuma u jednoj godini,
univerzuma u jednoj godini,
01:55
then our species came into being
about 12 minutes before midnight,
about 12 minutes before midnight,
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onda se naša vrsta stvorila
oko 12 minuta pre ponoći,
oko 12 minuta pre ponoći,
02:00
31st December.
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31. decembra.
02:02
Western civilization
has existed for a few seconds.
has existed for a few seconds.
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Zapadna civilizacija
postoji tek par sekundi.
postoji tek par sekundi.
02:05
Extraterrestrial civilizations
could have started in the summer months.
could have started in the summer months.
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Vanzemaljske civilizacije su se mogle
pokrenuti u letnjim mesecima.
pokrenuti u letnjim mesecima.
02:10
Imagine a summer civilization
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Zamislite letnju civilizaciju
02:13
developing a level of technology
more advanced than ours,
more advanced than ours,
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koja razvija tehnologiju
napredniju od naše,
napredniju od naše,
02:17
but tech based on accepted physics though,
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ali tehnologiju zasnovanu
na fizičkim zakonima,
na fizičkim zakonima,
02:19
I'm not talking wormholes
or warp drives -- whatever --
or warp drives -- whatever --
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Ne govorim o crvotočini ili
svetlosnim pogonima - bilo čemu -
svetlosnim pogonima - bilo čemu -
02:23
just an extrapolation
of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.
of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.
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samo ekstrapolacija
vrste tehnike koju TED slavi.
vrste tehnike koju TED slavi.
02:28
That civilization could program
self-replicating probes
self-replicating probes
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Ta civilizacija bi mogla da isprogramira
samokopirajuće sonde,
samokopirajuće sonde,
02:32
to visit every planetary
system in the galaxy.
system in the galaxy.
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da posete svaki
planetarni sistem u galaksiji.
planetarni sistem u galaksiji.
02:35
If they launched the first probes
just after midnight one August day,
just after midnight one August day,
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Da lansiraju prve sonde
posle ponoći jednog avgustovskog dana,
posle ponoći jednog avgustovskog dana,
02:41
then before breakfast same day,
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pre doručka istog dana,
02:43
they could have colonized the galaxy.
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bi oni mogli kolonizovati galaksiju.
02:46
Intergalactic colonization
isn't much more difficult,
isn't much more difficult,
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Intergalaktička kolonizacija
nije mnogo teža,
nije mnogo teža,
02:49
it just takes longer.
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samo duže traje.
02:51
A civilization from any one
of millions of galaxies
of millions of galaxies
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Civilizacija iz bilo koje
od miliona galaksija
od miliona galaksija
02:54
could have colonized our galaxy.
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je mogla kolonizovati našu.
02:56
Seems far-fetched?
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Izgleda neverovatno?
02:58
Maybe it is,
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Možda jeste,
02:59
but wouldn't aliens engage
in some recognizable activity --
in some recognizable activity --
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zar se ne bi vanzemaljci bavili
nekom prepoznatljivom aktivnošću -
nekom prepoznatljivom aktivnošću -
03:05
put worldlets around a star
to capture free sunlight,
to capture free sunlight,
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stavljanjem malih svetova oko zvezde
da uhvate slobodnu sunčevu svetlost,
da uhvate slobodnu sunčevu svetlost,
03:09
collaborate on a Wikipedia Galactica,
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sarađivanjem na Vikipediji Galaktika,
03:12
or just shout out
to the universe, "We're here"?
to the universe, "We're here"?
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ili prosto da viknu svima: "Ovde smo"?
03:16
So where is everybody?
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Pa gde su svi?
03:18
It's a puzzle because we do expect
these civilizations to exist, don't we?
these civilizations to exist, don't we?
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Zagonetka je jer mi očekujemo
da ove civilizacije postoje, zar ne?
da ove civilizacije postoje, zar ne?
03:24
After all, there could be
a trillion planets in the galaxy --
a trillion planets in the galaxy --
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Uostalom, može postojati
bilion planeta u galaksiji -
bilion planeta u galaksiji -
03:27
maybe more.
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možda i više.
03:29
You don't need any special knowledge
to consider this question,
to consider this question,
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Ne treba vam nikakvo specijalno znanje
da porazmislite o ovom pitanju,
da porazmislite o ovom pitanju,
03:34
and I've explored it
with lots of people over the years.
with lots of people over the years.
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a ja sam istražio to
sa dosta ljudi tokom godina.
sa dosta ljudi tokom godina.
03:37
And I've found they often
frame their thinking
frame their thinking
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I ustanovio sam da oni često
oblikuju svoje razmišljanje
oblikuju svoje razmišljanje
03:40
in terms of the barriers
that would need to be cleared
that would need to be cleared
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u smislu barijera
koje bi se trebale probiti,
koje bi se trebale probiti,
03:44
if a planet is to host
a communicative civilization.
a communicative civilization.
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ako je planeta ta koja ugošćava
komunikativnu civilizaciju.
komunikativnu civilizaciju.
03:49
And they usually identify
four key barriers.
four key barriers.
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A oni uglavnom identifikuju
četiri ključne barijere.
četiri ključne barijere.
03:52
Habitability --
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Habitabilnost -
03:54
that's the first barrier.
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to je prva barijera.
03:55
We need a terrestrial planet
in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"
in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"
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Treba nam suvozemna planeta
na onaj "idealni" način,
na onaj "idealni" način,
04:00
where water flows as a liquid.
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u kom voda struji kao tečnost.
04:03
They're out there.
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Oni su tamo.
04:04
In 2016, astronomers confirmed
there's a planet in the habitable zone
there's a planet in the habitable zone
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2016. su astronomi potvrdili
da postoji planeta u nastanjivoj zoni
da postoji planeta u nastanjivoj zoni
04:09
of the closest star,
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najbliže zvezde,
04:10
Proxima Centauri --
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Proksima Kentauri -
04:12
so close that Breakthrough Starshot
project plans to send probes there.
project plans to send probes there.
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toliko blizu da Brejktru Staršot projekat
planira da pošalje sonde tamo.
planira da pošalje sonde tamo.
04:17
We'd become a starfaring species.
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Postali bismo vrsta koja putuje svemirom.
04:21
But not all worlds are habitable.
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Ali nisu sve planete nastanjive.
04:23
Some will be too close to a star
and they'll fry,
and they'll fry,
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Neke će biti preblizu sunca i spržiće se,
04:25
some will be too far away
and they'll freeze.
and they'll freeze.
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neke će biti predaleko i zalediće se.
04:28
Abiogenesis --
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Abiogeneza -
04:30
the creation of life from nonlife --
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stvaranje života iz ne-života -
04:31
that's the second barrier.
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to je druga barijera.
04:34
The basic building blocks of life
aren't unique to Earth:
aren't unique to Earth:
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Osnovni elementi života
nisu jedinstveni za Zemlju:
nisu jedinstveni za Zemlju:
04:37
amino acids have been found in comets,
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aminokiseline su pronađene u kometama,
04:40
complex organic molecules
in interstellar dust clouds,
in interstellar dust clouds,
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kompleksni organski molekuli
u međuzvezdanim oblacima prašine,
u međuzvezdanim oblacima prašine,
04:43
water in exoplanetary systems.
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voda u egzoplanetarnim sistemima.
04:47
The ingredients are there,
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Sastojci su tamo,
04:48
we just don't know
how they combine to create life,
how they combine to create life,
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samo ne znamo kako se
kombinuju da bi se stvorio život,
kombinuju da bi se stvorio život,
04:51
and presumably there will be worlds
on which life doesn't start.
on which life doesn't start.
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i po svojoj prilici biće planeta
na kojima život ne počinje.
na kojima život ne počinje.
04:55
The development of technological
civilization is a third barrier.
civilization is a third barrier.
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Razvoj tehnološke civilizacije
je treća barijera.
je treća barijera.
05:00
Some say we already share our planet
with alien intelligences.
with alien intelligences.
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Neki kažu da mi već delimo planetu
sa vanzemaljskim inteligencijama.
sa vanzemaljskim inteligencijama.
05:05
A 2011 study showed that elephants
can cooperate to solve problems.
can cooperate to solve problems.
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Studije iz 2011. su pokazale da slonovi
mogu da sarađuju da bi rešili probleme.
mogu da sarađuju da bi rešili probleme.
05:10
A 2010 study showed
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Studije iz 2010. su pokazale
05:12
that an octopus in captivity
can recognize different humans.
can recognize different humans.
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da hobotnica u zatočeništvu
može da prepozna različite ljude.
može da prepozna različite ljude.
05:17
2017 studies show that ravens
can plan for future events --
can plan for future events --
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Studije iz 2017. pokazuju da gavranovi
mogu da planiraju za buduće događaje -
mogu da planiraju za buduće događaje -
05:21
wonderful, clever creatures --
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čudesna, pametna stvorenja -
05:24
but they can't contemplate
the Breakthrough Starshot project,
the Breakthrough Starshot project,
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ali oni ne mogu da razmišljaju
o Brejktru Staršot projektu,
o Brejktru Staršot projektu,
05:27
and if we vanished today,
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a ako mi nestanemo danas,
05:29
they wouldn't go on
to implement Breakthrough Starshot --
to implement Breakthrough Starshot --
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oni ne bi nastavili sa
izvršavanjem Brejktru Staršota -
izvršavanjem Brejktru Staršota -
05:32
why should they?
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zašto bi?
05:33
Evolution doesn't have
space travel as an end goal.
space travel as an end goal.
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Evolucija nema putovanje kroz svemir
kao kranji cilj.
kao kranji cilj.
05:37
There will be worlds where life
doesn't give rise to advanced technology.
doesn't give rise to advanced technology.
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Biće planeta gde život ne dostiže
do napredne tehnologije.
do napredne tehnologije.
05:43
Communication across space --
that's a fourth barrier.
that's a fourth barrier.
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Komunikacija duž svemira -
to je četvrta barijera.
to je četvrta barijera.
05:45
Maybe advanced civilizations
choose to explore inner space
choose to explore inner space
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Možda napredne civilizacije
biraju da istražuju unutrašnji svemir
biraju da istražuju unutrašnji svemir
05:49
rather than outer space,
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radije nego spoljašnji svemir,
05:52
or engineer at small distances
rather than large.
rather than large.
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ili izgrađuju na manjim razdaljinama
više nego na većim.
više nego na većim.
05:56
Or maybe they just don't want
to risk an encounter
to risk an encounter
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Ili možda samo neće
da rizikuju da se susretnu
da rizikuju da se susretnu
05:59
with a potentially more advanced
and hostile neighbor.
and hostile neighbor.
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sa potencijalno naprednijim
i neprijateljski nastrojenim susedom.
i neprijateljski nastrojenim susedom.
06:03
There'll be worlds where,
for whatever reason,
for whatever reason,
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Biće planeta gde, iz kog god razloga,
civilizacije bivaju neme ili ne provode
puno pokušavajući da komuniciraju.
puno pokušavajući da komuniciraju.
06:05
civilizations either stay silent
or don't spend long trying to communicate.
or don't spend long trying to communicate.
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06:12
As for the height of the barriers,
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Što se tiče visine barijera,
06:14
your guess is as good as anyone's.
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vaša pretpostavka je dobra
kao i bilo čija.
kao i bilo čija.
06:18
In my experience,
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Po mom iskustvu,
06:19
when people sit down and do the math,
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kad ljudi sednu i izračunaju,
06:21
they typically conclude there are
thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.
thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.
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obično zaključe da ima
hiljade civilizacija u galaksiji.
hiljade civilizacija u galaksiji.
06:27
But then we're back to the puzzle:
Where is everybody?
Where is everybody?
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Ali onda se vraćamo na zagonetku:
gde su svi?
gde su svi?
06:32
By definition,
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Po definiciji,
06:33
UFOs -- including the one I saw --
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NLO-i - uključujući i onog
kog sam ja video -
kog sam ja video -
06:35
are unidentified.
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su neidentifikovani.
06:37
We can't simply infer they're spacecraft.
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Ne možemo zaključivati
da je to svemirski brod.
da je to svemirski brod.
06:40
You can still have some fun
playing with the idea aliens are here.
playing with the idea aliens are here.
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Možete se malo zabaviti idejom
da su vanzemaljci ovde.
da su vanzemaljci ovde.
06:45
Some say a summer civilization
did colonize the galaxy
did colonize the galaxy
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Neki kažu da je letnja civilizacija
kolonizovala galaksiju
kolonizovala galaksiju
06:48
and seeded Earth with life ...
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i posejala život na Zemlji...
06:51
others, that we're living
in a cosmic wilderness preserve --
in a cosmic wilderness preserve --
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drugi, da živimo
u kosmičkoj očuvanoj divljini -
u kosmičkoj očuvanoj divljini -
06:54
a zoo.
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u zoološkom vrtu.
06:56
Yet others --
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Međutim drugi -
06:58
that we're living in a simulation.
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da živimo u simulaciji.
07:00
Programmers just haven't
revealed the aliens yet.
revealed the aliens yet.
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Programeri nisu otkrili
vanzemaljce još uvek.
vanzemaljce još uvek.
07:03
Most of my colleagues though
argue that E.T. is out there,
argue that E.T. is out there,
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Većina mojih kolega se prepire o tome
da su vanzemaljci tamo negde,
da su vanzemaljci tamo negde,
07:08
we just need to keep looking,
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samo treba da nastavimo potragu,
07:09
and this makes sense.
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a ovo ima smisla.
07:11
Space is vast.
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Svemir je ogroman.
07:13
Identifying a signal is hard,
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Identifikovati signal je teško,
07:15
and we haven't been looking that long.
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a ne tražimo toliko dugo.
07:19
Without doubt, we should
spend more on the search.
spend more on the search.
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Bez sumnje, treba da
uložimo više na potragu.
uložimo više na potragu.
07:22
It's about understanding
our place in the universe.
our place in the universe.
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Radi se o razumevanju
našeg mesta u univerzumu.
našeg mesta u univerzumu.
07:25
It's too important a question to ignore.
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Previše je važno pitanje
da bi se ignorisalo.
da bi se ignorisalo.
07:29
But there's an obvious answer:
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Ali ima očiglednog odgovora:
07:31
we're alone.
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sami smo.
07:33
It's just us.
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Samo smo mi tu.
07:34
There could be a trillion
planets in the galaxy.
planets in the galaxy.
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Može postojati bilion planeta u galaksiji.
07:38
Is it plausible we're the only creatures
capable of contemplating this question?
capable of contemplating this question?
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Da li je moguće da smo jedina stvorenja
sposobna da razmišljaju o ovom pitanju?
sposobna da razmišljaju o ovom pitanju?
07:43
Well, yes, because in this context,
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Pa, da, jer u ovom kontekstu,
07:46
we don't know whether
a trillion is a big number.
a trillion is a big number.
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ne znamo da li je bilion velik broj.
07:50
In 2000, Peter Ward and Don Brownlee
proposed the Rare Earth idea.
proposed the Rare Earth idea.
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Piter Vord i Don Braunli su 2000.
predložili ideju "retke Zemlje".
predložili ideju "retke Zemlje".
07:55
Remember those four barriers
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Sećate se one četiri barijere
07:57
that people use to estimate
the number of civilizations?
the number of civilizations?
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koje ljudi koriste da odrede
broj civilizacija?
broj civilizacija?
08:01
Ward and Brownlee said
there might be more.
there might be more.
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Vord i Braunli su rekli
da ih može biti više.
da ih može biti više.
08:03
Let's look at one possible barrier.
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Pogledajmo jednu moguću barijeru.
08:05
It's a recent suggestion by David Waltham,
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To je skorašnji predlog Dejvida Volthema,
08:08
a geophysicist.
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geofizičara.
08:10
This is my very simplified version
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Ovo je veoma pojednostavljena verzija
08:12
of Dave's much more
sophisticated argument.
sophisticated argument.
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Dejvidovog mnogo
sofisticiranijeg argumenta.
sofisticiranijeg argumenta.
08:16
We are able to be here now
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Mi smo u mogćnosti da budemo ovde sada
08:18
because Earth's previous
inhabitants enjoyed
inhabitants enjoyed
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jer su prethodni Zemljini
stanovnici uživali
stanovnici uživali
08:20
four billion years of good weather --
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u 4 milijarde godina lepog vremena -
08:23
ups and downs but more or less clement.
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usponi i padovi ali manje više blago.
08:26
But long-term climate
stability is strange,
stability is strange,
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Ali dugoročna klimatska
stabilnost je čudna,
stabilnost je čudna,
08:29
if only because astronomical influences
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zbog toga što astronomski uticaji
08:31
can push a planet
towards freezing or frying.
towards freezing or frying.
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mogu pogurati planetu
ka zamrzavanju ili prženju.
ka zamrzavanju ili prženju.
08:36
There's a hint our moon has helped,
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Ima nagoveštaja da je Mesec pomogao,
08:38
and that's interesting
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a to je interesantno,
08:40
because the prevailing theory is
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jer je preovlađujuća teorija
08:42
that the moon came into being when Theia,
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da se mesec pojavio kad se Tea,
08:44
a body the size of Mars,
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telo veličine Marsa,
08:46
crashed into a newly formed Earth.
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sudarila sa novoformiranom Zemljom.
08:49
The outcome of that crash could have been
a quite different Earth-Moon system.
a quite different Earth-Moon system.
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Ishod tog sudara mogao je da bude
dosta drugačiji za sistem Zemlje i Meseca.
dosta drugačiji za sistem Zemlje i Meseca.
08:54
We ended up with a large moon
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Završili smo sa velikim mesecom,
08:56
and that permitted Earth
to have both a stable axial tilt
to have both a stable axial tilt
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a to je dopustilo Zemlji da ima oba,
stabilni nagib ose
stabilni nagib ose
09:00
and a slow rotation rate.
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i sporu brzinu rotacije.
09:03
Both factors influence climate
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Oba faktora utiču na klimu,
09:05
and the suggestion is that they've helped
moderate climate change.
moderate climate change.
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a predlog je da su ti faktori pomogli
u ublažavanju klimatskih promena.
u ublažavanju klimatskih promena.
09:09
Great for us, right?
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Odlično za nas, zar ne?
09:11
But Waltham showed that if the moon
were just a few miles bigger,
were just a few miles bigger,
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Ali Volthem je pokazao
da, u slučaju da je mesec veći,
da, u slučaju da je mesec veći,
09:15
things would be different.
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stvari bi bile drugačije.
09:16
Earth's spin axis
would now wander chaotically.
would now wander chaotically.
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Zemljina rotaciona osa
bi onda lutala haotično.
bi onda lutala haotično.
09:20
There'd be episodes
of rapid climate change --
of rapid climate change --
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Bilo bi epizoda brzih klimatskih promena -
09:23
not good for complex life.
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loše za kompleksni život.
09:25
The moon is just the right size:
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Mesec je baš prave veličine:
09:27
big but not too big.
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velik, ali ne prevelik.
09:30
A "Goldilocks" moon around
a "Goldilocks" planet --
a "Goldilocks" planet --
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"Idealni" Mesec oko "idealne" planete -
09:33
a barrier perhaps.
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možda je to barijera.
09:35
You can imagine more barriers.
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Možete zamisliti još barijera.
09:37
For instance,
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Na primer,
09:38
simple cells came into being
billions of years ago ...
billions of years ago ...
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jednoćelijski organizmi su se ostvarili
pre milijardu godina...
pre milijardu godina...
09:42
but perhaps the development
of complex life
of complex life
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ali možda je za razvoj kompleksnog života
09:45
needed a series of unlikely events.
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potreban niz neizvesnih događaja.
09:48
Once life on Earth
had access to multicellularity
had access to multicellularity
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Čim je život na Zemlji pristupio
višećelijskim organizmima,
višećelijskim organizmima,
09:51
and sophisticated genetic structures,
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sofisticiranim genetskim strukturama,
09:53
and sex,
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i seksu,
09:54
new opportunities opened up:
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nove mogućnosti su se otvorile:
09:56
animals became possible.
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životinje su postale moguće.
09:58
But maybe it's the fate of many planets
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Ali možda je to sudbina mnogih planeta,
10:01
for life to settle
at the level of simple cells.
at the level of simple cells.
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da se život nastani na stepenu
jednoćelijskih organizama.
jednoćelijskih organizama.
10:06
Purely for the purposes of illustration,
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Čisto radi ilustracije,
10:09
let me suggest four more barriers
to add to the four
to add to the four
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dozovlite mi da predložim
četiri dodatne barijere na one četiri,
četiri dodatne barijere na one četiri,
10:12
that people said blocked the path
to communicative civilization.
to communicative civilization.
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za koje ljudi kažu da blokiraju put
ka komunikativnoj civilizaciji.
ka komunikativnoj civilizaciji.
10:17
Again, purely for the purposes
of illustration,
of illustration,
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Ponovo, čisto radi ilustracije,
pretpostavimo šanse jedan naprema hiljadu
za prevazilaženje svake od barijera.
za prevazilaženje svake od barijera.
10:21
suppose there's a one-in-a-thousand chance
of making it across each of the barriers.
of making it across each of the barriers.
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10:25
Of course there might be
different ways of navigating the barriers,
different ways of navigating the barriers,
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Naravno, možda postoje
drugačiji načini upravljanja barijerama,
drugačiji načini upravljanja barijerama,
10:28
and some chances will be better
than one in a thousand.
than one in a thousand.
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i neke će šanse biti bolje
od jedan naprema hiljadu.
od jedan naprema hiljadu.
10:31
Equally, there might be more barriers
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Podjednako, može biti još barijera,
10:33
and some chances
might be one in a million.
might be one in a million.
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a neke su šanse možda i jedan u milion.
10:35
Let's just see
what happens in this picture.
what happens in this picture.
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Da vidimo šta se dešava u ovom slučaju.
10:39
If the galaxy contains a trillion planets,
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Ako galaksija sadrži bilion planeta,
10:41
how many will host a civilization
capable of contemplating like us
capable of contemplating like us
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koliko njih će ugostiti civilizaciju
sposobnu da razmišlja poput nas,
sposobnu da razmišlja poput nas,
10:47
projects such as Breakthrough Starshot?
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projekte kao što je Brejktru Staršot?
10:50
Habitability --
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Habitabilnost -
10:51
right sort of planet
around the right sort of star --
around the right sort of star --
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prava vrsta planete
oko prave vrste zvezde -
oko prave vrste zvezde -
10:54
the trillion becomes a billion.
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bilion postaje milijarda.
10:56
Stability --
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Stabilnost -
10:58
a climate that stays benign for eons --
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klima koja ostaje benigna eonima -
11:01
the billion becomes a million.
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milijarda postaje milion.
11:03
Life must start --
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Život mora početi -
11:05
the million becomes a thousand.
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milion postaje hiljadu.
11:07
Complex life forms must arise --
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Kompleksni oblici života
moraju izniknuti -
moraju izniknuti -
11:10
the thousand becomes one.
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hiljadu postaje jedan.
Prefinjeno korišćenje alatki
se mora razviti -
se mora razviti -
11:12
Sophisticated tool use must develop --
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11:14
that's one planet in a thousand galaxies.
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to je jedna planeta u hiljadu galaksija.
11:17
To understand the universe,
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Da bi razumeli univerzum,
11:19
they'll have to develop the techniques
of science and mathematics --
of science and mathematics --
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moraće da razviju tehnike
nauke i matematike -
nauke i matematike -
11:22
that's one planet in a million galaxies.
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to je jedna planeta u milion galaksija.
11:24
To reach the stars,
they'll have to be social creatures,
they'll have to be social creatures,
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Da bi doprli do zvezda,
moraće da budu socijalna bića,
moraće da budu socijalna bića,
11:27
capable of discussing
abstract concepts with each other
abstract concepts with each other
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u stanju da diskutuju o apstraktnim
konceptima među sobom
konceptima među sobom
11:29
using complex grammar --
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koristeći kompleksnu gramatiku -
11:31
one planet in a billion galaxies.
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jedna planeta u milijardu galaksija.
11:35
And they have to avoid disaster --
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I moraju da izbegavaju nepogode -
11:36
not just self-inflicted
but from the skies, too.
but from the skies, too.
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ne samo koje su sami sebi naneli,
nego i one sa neba takođe.
nego i one sa neba takođe.
11:40
That planet around Proxima Centauri,
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Ona planeta oko Proksima Kentauri,
11:43
last year it got blasted by a flare.
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prošle godine ju je bljesak razneo.
11:47
One planet in a trillion galaxies,
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Jedna planeta u bilion galaksija,
11:49
just as in the visible universe.
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baš kao u vidljivom univerzumu.
11:54
I think we're alone.
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Ja mislim da smo sami.
11:57
Those colleagues of mine
who agree we're alone
who agree we're alone
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Te moje kolege koje se slažu da smo sami,
11:59
often see a barrier ahead --
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često vide barijeru unapred -
12:02
bioterror,
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bioteror,
12:04
global warming, war.
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globalno zagrevanje, rat.
12:06
A universe that's silent
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Univerzum koji je nem,
12:09
because technology itself
forms the barrier
forms the barrier
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jer sama tehnologija formira barijeru
12:12
to the development
of a truly advanced civilization.
of a truly advanced civilization.
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razvitku zaista napredne civilizacije.
12:16
Depressing, right?
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Obeshrabrujuće, zar ne?
12:19
I'm arguing the exact opposite.
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Ja argumentujem potpuno suprotno.
Odrastao sam gledajući "Star Trek"
i "Zabranjenu planetu",
i "Zabranjenu planetu",
12:22
I grew up watching "Star Trek"
and "Forbidden Planet,"
and "Forbidden Planet,"
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12:25
and I saw a UFO once,
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i video sam NLO jednom,
12:26
so this idea of cosmic loneliness
I certainly find slightly wistful.
I certainly find slightly wistful.
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stoga ideju kosmičke usamljenosti
smatram pomalo sumornom.
smatram pomalo sumornom.
12:34
But for me,
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Ali za mene,
12:36
the silence of the universe is shouting,
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tišina univerzuma viče:
12:38
"We're the creatures who got lucky."
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"Mi smo bića kojim se posrećilo."
12:40
All barriers are behind us.
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Sve barijere su iza nas.
12:42
We're the only species
that's cleared them --
that's cleared them --
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Jedina smo vrsta koja ih je probila -
12:45
the only species capable
of determining its own destiny.
of determining its own destiny.
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jedina vrsta sposobna
da odredi sopstvenu sudbinu.
da odredi sopstvenu sudbinu.
12:49
And if we learn to appreciate
how special our planet is,
how special our planet is,
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I ako naučimo da cenimo
koliko je posebna naša planeta,
koliko je posebna naša planeta,
12:53
how important it is to look after our home
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koliko je važno da pazimo našu kuću,
12:56
and to find others,
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i da nađemo ostale,
12:57
how incredibly fortunate we all are
simply to be aware of the universe,
simply to be aware of the universe,
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koliki smo svi mi neverovatni srećnici
da prosto budemo svesni univerzuma,
da prosto budemo svesni univerzuma,
13:02
humanity might survive for a while.
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čovečanstvo možda preživi još neko vreme.
13:05
And all those amazing things
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I sve te zapanjujuće stvari
13:06
we dreamed aliens
might have done in the past,
might have done in the past,
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koje smo sanjali da su vanzemaljci
možda uradili u prošlosti,
možda uradili u prošlosti,
13:09
that could be our future.
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bi mogle biti naša budućnost.
13:11
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
13:12
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stephen Webb - Writer, scientistStephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species.
Why you should listen
An early preoccupation with science fiction ended up influencing most of Stephen Webb's professional activity. It instilled in him a deep love of science and the scientific endeavor, which in turn led him to complete a PhD in theoretical particle physics. Isaac Asimov's story "The Fun They Had," about computerized homeschooling, prompted him to consider how digital technology might deepen students' learning, which in turn led to posts in a variety of UK universities.
And it was in the pages of a science fiction magazine that he first encountered the Fermi paradox, which kindled a lifelong fascination with the problem of why we see no signs of extraterrestrial intelligence -- and led to his book Where Is Everybody, which explores the question in detail. Webb hopes to pass on his love of science through his outreach work, and he is the author of a number of popular science books. He is working on New Light Through Old Windows, an anthology of classic science fiction tales; each tale appears alongside a commentary detailing the latest scientific thinking relating to the story's theme.
Stephen Webb | Speaker | TED.com