TED2018
Steven Pinker: Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers
史帝芬·平克: 世界是在變好還是變糟？讓數字說話吧
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2017 年真如某些人所說，是「史上最糟的一年」嗎？心理學家史帝芬·平克分析了近期的謀殺、戰爭、貧困、人口等等資料，發現和 30 年前相比，現在在每一方面都做得更好。但進步並非必然的，且並不代表隨時隨地每個人的一切都更好。進步是解決問題，我們應該要將氣候變遷及核戰這類事情視為待解決的問題，而不是等著世界末日來臨。他說：「世界永遠不會完美，追尋這樣的世界很危險。」「但如果我們繼續運用知識來增進人類的繁榮，那麼我們能獲得的改善無限。」
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Many people face the news each morning
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許多人每天早上起床看新聞時，
00:16
with trepidation and dread.
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總帶著不安和恐懼的心情。
00:18
Every day, we read of shootings,
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每天，我們都會獲悉關於槍擊、
00:21
inequality, pollution, dictatorship,
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不平等、污染、獨裁、
00:25
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
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戰爭，以及核武散布的資訊。
00:28
These are some of the reasons
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2016 年之所以被稱為
00:30
that 2016 was called
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
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「史上最糟的一年」背後是有原因的。
00:35
Until 2017 claimed that record --
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直到 2017 年又更勝一籌
搶下這頭銜──
搶下這頭銜──
00:38
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:39
and left many people longing
for earlier decades,
for earlier decades,
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讓許多人渴望能回到早期的年代，
00:42
when the world seemed safer,
cleaner and more equal.
cleaner and more equal.
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回到世界似乎比較安全、
比較乾淨，且比較平等的年代。
比較乾淨，且比較平等的年代。
00:46
But is this a sensible way
to understand the human condition
to understand the human condition
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但在 21 世紀，用這樣的方式
來了解人類的條件，合理嗎？
00:50
in the 21st century?
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00:52
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
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如富蘭克林·皮爾斯·亞當斯所言：
00:54
"Nothing is more responsible
for the good old days
for the good old days
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「對於過去的好日子，
最需要負起責任的，
最需要負起責任的，
00:57
than a bad memory."
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就是不好的記憶。」
00:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:01
You can always fool yourself
into seeing a decline
into seeing a decline
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你總是可以自欺欺人地看到衰落，
01:05
if you compare bleeding
headlines of the present
headlines of the present
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如果你把當前流血的頭條
01:07
with rose-tinted images of the past.
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拿來和過去染上玫瑰色的影像相比。
01:10
What does the trajectory
of the world look like
of the world look like
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世界的軌道看起來會是什麼模樣，
01:13
when we measure well-being over time
using a constant yardstick?
using a constant yardstick?
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如果我們用衡常不變的標準
來測量不同時間的幸福指數？
來測量不同時間的幸福指數？
01:17
Let's compare the most recent
data on the present
data on the present
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讓我們拿最近的現代資料
01:20
with the same measures 30 years ago.
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和 30 年前同樣的測量值做比較。
01:23
Last year, Americans killed each other
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
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去年，美國人自相殘殺的比率
是每十萬人就有 5.3 人，
是每十萬人就有 5.3 人，
01:28
had seven percent
of their citizens in poverty
of their citizens in poverty
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貧窮公民的比率是 7%，
01:31
and emitted 21 million tons
of particulate matter
of particulate matter
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排放了 2100 萬噸的微粒狀物質，
01:35
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 400 萬噸的二氧化硫。
01:38
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
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但 30 年前，謀殺案的比率
為每十萬人有 8.5 人，
為每十萬人有 8.5 人，
01:42
poverty rate was 12 percent
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貧窮比率則是 12%，
01:44
and we emitted 35 million tons
of particulate matter
of particulate matter
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我們排放了 3500 萬噸
微粒狀物質，
微粒狀物質，
01:47
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 2000 萬噸的二氧化硫。
01:51
What about the world as a whole?
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整個世界的狀況又如何？
01:53
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
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去年世上有 12 場戰事未歇，
01:56
60 autocracies,
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60 個獨裁政體，
01:59
10 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
in extreme poverty
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世界有 10% 的赤貧人口，
02:02
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
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和超過一萬件核武。
02:05
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
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但 30 年前，有 23 場戰爭，
02:08
85 autocracies,
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85 個獨裁政體，
02:10
37 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
in extreme poverty
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37% 的赤貧人口，
02:13
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
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和超過六萬件核武。
02:17
True, last year was a terrible year
for terrorism in Western Europe,
for terrorism in Western Europe,
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的確，就西歐的恐怖主義來說，
去年是很糟的一年，
去年是很糟的一年，
02:21
with 238 deaths,
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造成 238 人死亡，
02:24
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
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但 1988 年更糟，有 440 人死亡。
02:28
What's going on?
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怎麼回事？
02:30
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
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1988 年是特別不好的一年嗎？
02:33
Or are these improvements a sign
that the world, for all its struggles,
that the world, for all its struggles,
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或者，這些改善其實是個徵兆，
顯示在所有的困難議題上，
顯示在所有的困難議題上，
02:37
gets better over time?
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世界隨時間變得更好？
02:39
Might we even invoke the admittedly
old-fashioned notion of progress?
old-fashioned notion of progress?
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是不是甚至能承認，我們符合了
「進步」這個老式觀念呢？
「進步」這個老式觀念呢？
02:45
To do so is to court
a certain amount of derision,
a certain amount of derision,
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這麼做，其實會受到相當的嘲笑，
02:49
because I have found
that intellectuals hate progress.
that intellectuals hate progress.
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因為我發現，知識分子討厭進步。
02:53
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:54
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
02:57
And intellectuals who call themselves
progressive really hate progress.
progressive really hate progress.
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自稱進步分子的知識分子
其實很討厭進步。
其實很討厭進步。
03:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:02
Now, it's not that they hate
the fruits of progress, mind you.
the fruits of progress, mind you.
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請注意，這並不是說
他們討厭進步的果實。
他們討厭進步的果實。
03:05
Most academics and pundits
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大部分的學者和權威者在手術時
03:08
would rather have their surgery
with anesthesia than without it.
with anesthesia than without it.
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偏好用麻醉的還是多於不用麻醉的。
03:13
It's the idea of progress
that rankles the chattering class.
that rankles the chattering class.
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是「進步」這個想法
讓這個喋喋不休的階層感到痛苦。
讓這個喋喋不休的階層感到痛苦。
03:17
If you believe that humans
can improve their lot, I have been told,
can improve their lot, I have been told,
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有人告訴我，如果相信
人類可以改善命運，
人類可以改善命運，
03:21
that means that you have a blind faith
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那就表示你的信念盲目，
03:23
and a quasi-religious belief
in the outmoded superstition
in the outmoded superstition
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你對過時的迷信有宗教般的信仰，
03:28
and the false promise
of the myth of the onward march
of the myth of the onward march
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而且你對未來的進展神話
03:31
of inexorable progress.
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懷抱著虛假的希望。
03:34
You are a cheerleader
for vulgar American can-doism,
for vulgar American can-doism,
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你盲從地喝采
美國通俗的「做得到主義」、
美國通俗的「做得到主義」、
03:39
with the rah-rah spirit
of boardroom ideology,
of boardroom ideology,
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會議室的意識形態、
03:42
Silicon Valley
and the Chamber of Commerce.
and the Chamber of Commerce.
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矽谷和商會。
（註：對資本主義信仰者的侮辱說法）
（註：對資本主義信仰者的侮辱說法）
03:45
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
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你是輝格黨歷史的實踐者、
（註：英國歷史上的一個政黨）
（註：英國歷史上的一個政黨）
03:48
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna
and, of course, a Pangloss,
and, of course, a Pangloss,
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天真的樂觀者、樂天派，
當然，也是班格羅斯博士，
當然，也是班格羅斯博士，
03:52
alluding to the Voltaire
character who declared,
character who declared,
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指的是伏爾泰筆下的角色，他宣稱：
03:55
"All is for the best
in the best of all possible worlds."
in the best of all possible worlds."
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「在最好的世界中，一切的發生
都是為了最好的結果。」
都是為了最好的結果。」
03:58
Well, Professor Pangloss,
as it happens, was a pessimist.
as it happens, was a pessimist.
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好巧不巧，班格羅斯博士
是位悲觀主義者。
是位悲觀主義者。
真正的樂觀主義者相信
04:01
A true optimist believes
there can be much better worlds
there can be much better worlds
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有比現今世界好得多的世界存在。
04:04
than the one we have today.
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04:06
But all of this is irrelevant,
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但這些都不相干，
04:07
because the question
of whether progress has taken place
of whether progress has taken place
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因為，是否有進步
04:10
is not a matter of faith
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並不是信念的問題，
04:12
or having an optimistic temperament
or seeing the glass as half full.
or seeing the glass as half full.
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也不是有樂觀性情
或是看到半滿杯子的問題。
或是看到半滿杯子的問題。
04:16
It's a testable hypothesis.
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它是個可試驗的假設。
04:18
For all their differences,
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雖然人的差異很大，
04:20
people largely agree
on what goes into human well-being:
on what goes into human well-being:
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大多數人都同意人類的幸福包括
04:24
life, health, sustenance, prosperity,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
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生命、健康、食物、繁榮、和平、
自由、安全、知識、休閒、快樂。
04:30
leisure, happiness.
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04:32
All of these things can be measured.
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上述這些都是可測量的。
04:34
If they have improved over time,
that, I submit, is progress.
that, I submit, is progress.
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如果它們都隨著時間改善了，
我認為那就是進步。
我認為那就是進步。
04:38
Let's go to the data,
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讓我們看資料，
04:40
beginning with the most
precious thing of all, life.
precious thing of all, life.
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從當中最珍貴的一項開始：生命。
04:43
For most of human history,
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
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人類史上大部分時期
出生時預期的壽命是 30 歲。
出生時預期的壽命是 30 歲。
04:48
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,
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今天全世界超過 70 歲，
04:51
and in the developed parts of the world,
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在世界上已開發的區域，
04:53
more than 80.
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還會超過 80 歲。
04:55
250 years ago, in the richest
countries of the world,
countries of the world,
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250 年前，在世界上最有錢的國家中，
04:58
a third of the children
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
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三分之一的孩子
沒辦法活到 5 歲生日，
沒辦法活到 5 歲生日，
05:02
before the risk was brought
down a hundredfold.
down a hundredfold.
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後來這個風險數字下降了百倍之多。
05:05
Today, that fate befalls
less than six percent of children
less than six percent of children
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現今世界最貧窮的國家
有這種命運的孩子不到 6%。
05:08
in the poorest countries of the world.
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05:11
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse.
of the Apocalypse.
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饑荒是啟示錄中的四騎士之一。
05:15
It could bring devastation
to any part of the world.
to any part of the world.
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它能蹂躪世界上的任何一個區域。
05:18
Today, famine has been banished
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現今，饑荒已經被流放到
05:20
to the most remote
and war-ravaged regions.
and war-ravaged regions.
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最偏遠、被戰爭破壞的地區。
05:23
200 years ago, 90 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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200 年前，世界人口有 90%
05:26
subsisted in extreme poverty.
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過著極度貧窮的生活。
05:29
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
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現今，這樣的人剩下不到 10%。
05:32
For most of human history,
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在人類歷史上大部分時期，
05:34
the powerful states and empires
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強大的國家和帝王
05:36
were pretty much always
at war with each other,
at war with each other,
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總是在彼此交戰，
05:38
and peace was a mere
interlude between wars.
interlude between wars.
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和平僅是戰爭間的插曲。
05:42
Today, they are never
at war with each other.
at war with each other.
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現今，他們都不再打仗了。
05:44
The last great power war
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最後一次大型的權力戰爭
05:46
pitted the United States
against China 65 years ago.
against China 65 years ago.
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是 65 年前美國與中國的戰爭。
05:50
More recently, wars of all kinds
have become fewer and less deadly.
have become fewer and less deadly.
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更近期，各種戰爭都變少了，
也不那麼致命。
也不那麼致命。
05:54
The annual rate of war has fallen from
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
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年戰爭率已經從
50 年代初期的十萬分之 22
50 年代初期的十萬分之 22
05:59
in the early '50s to 1.2 today.
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下降到今天的十萬分之 1.2。
06:03
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
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民主碰到了很明顯的挫敗，
06:05
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
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在委內瑞拉、俄國和土耳其，
06:09
and is threatened by the rise
of authoritarian populism
of authoritarian populism
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且受到東歐及美國
專制民粹主義興起的威脅。
06:12
in Eastern Europe and the United States.
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06:15
Yet the world has never been
more democratic
more democratic
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然而以前的世界未曾像
06:17
than it has been in the past decade,
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過去十年間這麼民主過，
06:19
with two-thirds of the world's people
living in democracies.
living in democracies.
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三分之二的世人活在民主中。
06:24
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy
and the code of vendetta
and the code of vendetta
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只要無政府狀態和仇殺法
被法治所取代，
被法治所取代，
06:28
are replaced by the rule of law.
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謀殺率就會驟降。
06:30
It happened when feudal Europe was brought
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
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在封建的歐洲被
中央集權王國控制時發生過，
中央集權王國控制時發生過，
06:35
so that today a Western European
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所以，現今在西歐
06:37
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered
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被謀殺的機率，只有中世紀祖先
06:39
compared to his medieval ancestors.
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被謀殺之機率的三十五分之一。
06:42
It happened again in colonial New England,
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同樣的情形在新英格蘭殖民時期、
06:44
in the American Wild West
when the sheriffs moved to town,
when the sheriffs moved to town,
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警長進駐小鎮的美國大西部，
06:48
and in Mexico.
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和墨西哥，也都發生過。
06:50
Indeed, we've become safer
in just about every way.
in just about every way.
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的確，幾乎在每個層面上
我們都比以前更安全。
我們都比以前更安全。
06:54
Over the last century,
we've become 96 percent less likely
we've become 96 percent less likely
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在過去一百年，
我們因車禍死亡的機率減少了 96%，
06:58
to be killed in a car crash,
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07:00
88 percent less likely
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
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在人行道上慘死的機率減少了 88%，
07:04
99 percent less likely
to die in a plane crash,
to die in a plane crash,
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因為墜機而死的機率減少了 99%，
07:08
95 percent less likely
to be killed on the job,
to be killed on the job,
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工作時送命的機率減少了 95%，
07:11
89 percent less likely
to be killed by an act of God,
to be killed by an act of God,
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因天災而死的機率減少了 89%，
07:15
such as a drought, flood,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
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天災包括旱災、洪水、
野火、暴風、火山、
野火、暴風、火山、
07:19
landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
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土石流、地震，或隕石墜落，
07:22
presumably not because God
has become less angry with us
has become less angry with us
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這應該不是因為
上帝對我們不那麼生氣了，
上帝對我們不那麼生氣了，
07:25
but because of improvements
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
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而是因為改善了基礎建設的韌性。
07:30
And what about
the quintessential act of God,
the quintessential act of God,
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那麼，典型的上帝作為呢？
07:33
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
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宙斯自己猛力投射的攻擊呢？
07:36
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
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是的，我們被閃電打中而死的
機率也一樣減少了 97%。
機率也一樣減少了 97%。
07:43
Before the 17th century,
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在 17 世紀之前，
07:45
no more than 15 percent of Europeans
could read or write.
could read or write.
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能讀能寫的歐洲人不到 15%。
07:48
Europe and the United States
achieved universal literacy
achieved universal literacy
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歐洲和美國在 20 世紀中期
達成了全體識字的目標，
07:51
by the middle of the 20th century,
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07:53
and the rest of the world is catching up.
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世界其他國家也陸續追了上來。
07:56
Today, more than 90 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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現今，世界上 25 歲以下的人口，
07:59
under the age of 25 can read and write.
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超過 90% 都能讀和寫。
08:03
In the 19th century, Westerners
worked more than 60 hours per week.
worked more than 60 hours per week.
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在 19 世紀，西方人每週
要工作超過 60 小時，
要工作超過 60 小時，
08:07
Today, they work fewer than 40.
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1920
現今則不到 40 小時。
08:10
Thanks to the universal penetration
of running water and electricity
of running water and electricity
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多虧了在已開發世界中
普及的自來水和電力，
08:14
in the developed world
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08:16
and the widespread adoption
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
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以及被廣泛使用的洗衣機、吸塵器、
08:20
refrigerators, dishwashers,
stoves and microwaves,
stoves and microwaves,
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電冰箱、洗碗機、爐子，和微波爐，
08:24
the amount of our lives
that we forfeit to housework
that we forfeit to housework
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我們人生中耗費在家事上的時間，
08:27
has fallen from 60 hours a week
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從每週 60 小時，
08:29
to fewer than 15 hours a week.
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1960
落至不到每週 15 小時。
08:32
Do all of these gains in health,
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
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在健康、財富、安全、
知識，和休閒上的收穫，
知識，和休閒上的收穫，
08:37
make us any happier?
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有讓我們更快樂嗎？
08:39
The answer is yes.
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答案是，有。
08:40
In 86 percent of the world's countries,
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世界上有 86% 的國家
08:42
happiness has increased in recent decades.
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在近數十年間，快樂程度都有增加。
08:45
Well, I hope to have convinced you
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我希望我已經說服了各位，
08:47
that progress is not a matter
of faith or optimism,
of faith or optimism,
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進步並不是信念或樂觀主義的問題，
08:51
but is a fact of human history,
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而是人類歷史上的一件事實，
08:53
indeed the greatest fact in human history.
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可說是人類歷史上最偉大的事實。
08:56
And how has this fact
been covered in the news?
been covered in the news?
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而新聞是怎麼報導這件事實的？
08:59
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:03
A tabulation of positive and negative
emotion words in news stories
emotion words in news stories
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把新聞報導中用到的正面
和負面情緒用字製成表格，
和負面情緒用字製成表格，
09:07
has shown that during the decades
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
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就能看出，在人類變得
更健康、更有錢、更聰明、
更健康、更有錢、更聰明、
09:11
wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,
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更安全，且更快樂的這數十年間，
09:13
the "New York Times"
has become increasingly morose
has become increasingly morose
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《紐約時報》變得越來越陰鬱，
09:18
and the world's broadcasts too
have gotten steadily glummer.
have gotten steadily glummer.
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世界的廣播也都很穩定地
變得越來越悶悶不樂。
變得越來越悶悶不樂。
09:22
Why don't people appreciate progress?
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為什麼大家不賞識進步？
09:25
Part of the answer comes
from our cognitive psychology.
from our cognitive psychology.
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部分答案來自我們的認知心理學。
09:28
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut
called the "availability heuristic."
called the "availability heuristic."
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我們用一種叫做「易得性法則」的
心理捷徑來估計風險。
心理捷徑來估計風險。
09:33
The easier it is to recall
something from memory,
something from memory,
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當我們越容易喚起
記憶中的一樣事物時，
記憶中的一樣事物時，
09:36
the more probable we judge it to be.
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2000
我們就越可能判斷它容易發生。
09:39
The other part of the answer
comes from the nature of journalism,
comes from the nature of journalism,
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另一部分答案來自新聞業的天性，
09:42
captured in this satirical headline
from "The Onion,"
from "The Onion,"
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在這來自《洋蔥報》的
諷刺頭條中就可以看出來：
諷刺頭條中就可以看出來：
09:46
"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
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「CNN 開晨間會議來決定
今天讀者應該要對什麼感到慌張。」
09:48
What Viewers Should
Panic About For Rest of Day."
Panic About For Rest of Day."
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09:50
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:52
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
09:57
News is about stuff that happens,
not stuff that doesn't happen.
not stuff that doesn't happen.
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新聞的重點是已發生的事情，
而非沒發生的事情。
而非沒發生的事情。
10:01
You never see a journalist who says,
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你永遠不會看到一個新聞記者說：
10:03
"I'm reporting live from a country
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
188
591400
4216
「我正在一個已經和平了
40 年的國家做實況報導。」
40 年的國家做實況報導。」
10:07
or a city that has not
been attacked by terrorists.
been attacked by terrorists.
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也不會去報導沒有
被恐怖分子攻擊的城市。
被恐怖分子攻擊的城市。
10:10
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
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此外，壞事的發生可能很快速，
10:13
but good things aren't built in a day.
191
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2416
但好事不是一天就能建造起來的。
10:15
The papers could have run the headline,
192
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1896
如果報紙用了這頭條：
10:17
"137,000 people escaped
from extreme poverty yesterday"
from extreme poverty yesterday"
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「昨天 137,000 人脫離赤貧」，
10:22
every day for the last 25 years.
194
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不可能在接下來 25 年
天天都用這頭條。
天天都用這頭條。
10:24
That's one and a quarter billion people
leaving poverty behind,
leaving poverty behind,
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4216
那相當於 12.5 億人脫離貧窮，
10:29
but you never read about it.
196
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2016
但你從來沒有讀過這種報導。
10:31
Also, the news capitalizes
on our morbid interest
on our morbid interest
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此外，新聞要利用我們想看
事情能怎麼出錯的病態心理，
事情能怎麼出錯的病態心理，
10:34
in what can go wrong,
198
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10:35
captured in the programming policy,
"If it bleeds, it leads."
"If it bleeds, it leads."
199
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4336
「見到血，才能見頭條」
這條節目製作政策很一針見血。
這條節目製作政策很一針見血。
10:40
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases
with the nature of news,
with the nature of news,
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如果把我們的認知偏見
和新聞的天性結合起來，
和新聞的天性結合起來，
10:43
you can see why the world
has been coming to an end
has been coming to an end
201
631960
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你就能了解為什麼
長年以來都一直在說
長年以來都一直在說
10:46
for a very long time indeed.
202
634680
1960
好像世界末日即將來臨一樣了。
10:50
Let me address
some questions about progress
some questions about progress
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2096
無疑地，許多人應該都有一些
10:52
that no doubt have occurred
to many of you.
to many of you.
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關於進步的問題想問，
就讓我來談談。
就讓我來談談。
10:56
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic
205
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首先，用悲觀的方式
10:59
to safeguard against complacency,
206
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2416
來避免自滿，來揭發不當行為，
11:01
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
207
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來向當權著說出真相，不好嗎？
11:04
Well, not exactly.
208
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1976
嗯，不見得。
11:06
It's good to be accurate.
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1976
精確是好事。
11:08
Of course we should be aware
of suffering and danger
of suffering and danger
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當然，我們應該要在
苦難和危險發生時
苦難和危險發生時
11:10
wherever they occur,
211
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意識到它們的存在，
11:12
but we should also be aware
of how they can be reduced,
of how they can be reduced,
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但我們也應該要意識到
如何能減低它們，
如何能減低它們，
11:15
because there are dangers
to indiscriminate pessimism.
to indiscriminate pessimism.
213
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3496
因為不分皂白的悲觀主義是危險的。
11:18
One of them is fatalism.
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其中一種危險就是宿命論。
11:20
If all our efforts at improving the world
215
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若我們投入改善世界的所有努力
11:22
have been in vain,
216
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都是白費的，
11:23
why throw good money after bad?
217
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1856
為何要再砸錢填補無底洞？
11:25
The poor will always be with you.
218
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1572
貧窮永遠會與你同在。
11:28
And since the world will end soon --
219
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2296
既然世界末日很快就會來臨──
11:30
if climate change doesn't kill us all,
220
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1856
若我們沒有都死於氣候變遷，
11:32
then runaway artificial
intelligence will --
intelligence will --
221
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我們還是會死於失控的人工智能──
11:34
a natural response is
to enjoy life while we can,
to enjoy life while we can,
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自然的反應就是，
趁還可以時盡量享受人生，
趁還可以時盡量享受人生，
11:38
eat, drink and be merry,
for tomorrow we die.
for tomorrow we die.
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去吃喝玩樂，因為我們活不過明天。
11:42
The other danger of thoughtless
pessimism is radicalism.
pessimism is radicalism.
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輕率的悲觀主義會帶來的
另一種危險就是激進主義。
另一種危險就是激進主義。
11:46
If our institutions are all failing
and beyond hope for reform,
and beyond hope for reform,
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如果我們的制度全都沒有用，
且也沒有改革的希望，
且也沒有改革的希望，
11:50
a natural response
is to seek to smash the machine,
is to seek to smash the machine,
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自然的反應就是要
想辦法砸爛這台機器，
想辦法砸爛這台機器，
11:53
drain the swamp,
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1216
把不好的給根除，
11:55
burn the empire to the ground,
228
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1776
把整個帝國燒毀，
11:56
on the hope that whatever
rises out of the ashes
rises out of the ashes
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希望不論從灰燼中重生的是什麼，
12:00
is bound to be better
than what we have now.
than what we have now.
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都能夠比我們的現況更好。
12:03
Well, if there is
such a thing as progress,
such a thing as progress,
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2056
嗯，如果有「進步」這回事，
12:06
what causes it?
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是什麼造成進步的？
12:07
Progress is not some mystical force
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
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進步不是能把我們抬得更高的
神秘力量或辯證法；
神秘力量或辯證法；
12:12
It's not a mysterious arc of history
bending toward justice.
bending toward justice.
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進步不是歷史的神秘弧形，
朝向正義的方向彎曲；
朝向正義的方向彎曲；
12:16
It's the result of human efforts
governed by an idea,
governed by an idea,
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而是由想法支配人類努力的結果，
12:19
an idea that we associate
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
236
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這想法和 18 世紀啟蒙運動有關，
12:23
namely that if we apply reason and science
237
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4336
也就是，如果我們運用
增進人類福祉的理性和科學，
12:28
that enhance human well-being,
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12:30
we can gradually succeed.
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我們可以逐漸成功。
12:32
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
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3456
進步是必然的嗎？當然不是。
12:36
Progress does not mean
that everything becomes better
that everything becomes better
241
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進步並不表示隨時隨地
12:39
for everyone everywhere all the time.
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任何人的一切都會變更好。
12:42
That would be a miracle,
and progress is not a miracle
and progress is not a miracle
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那叫做奇蹟，而進步並不是奇蹟，
12:45
but problem-solving.
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而是解決問題。
12:47
Problems are inevitable
245
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問題是無可避免的，
12:49
and solutions create new problems
which have to be solved in their turn.
which have to be solved in their turn.
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3680
而解決方案會創造出新的問題來，
接著又要解決這些問題。
接著又要解決這些問題。
12:53
The unsolved problems
facing the world today are gargantuan,
facing the world today are gargantuan,
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現今世界面對巨大的問題，
12:57
including the risks of climate change
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2776
包括氣候變遷的風險，
13:00
and nuclear war,
249
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1616
以及核戰，
13:01
but we must see them
as problems to be solved,
as problems to be solved,
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但我們必須視它們為
有待解決的問題，
有待解決的問題，
13:04
not apocalypses in waiting,
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而不是等著即將到來的世界末日，
13:06
and aggressively pursue solutions
252
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並要很進取地去尋找解決方案，
13:09
like Deep Decarbonization
for climate change
for climate change
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就像針對氣候變遷要深度減碳；
13:12
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
254
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2200
針對核戰要全球零核。
13:15
Finally, does the Enlightenment
go against human nature?
go against human nature?
255
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3896
最後，啟蒙運動是否有違人類天性？
13:19
This is an acute question for me,
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對我來說，這是個尖銳的問題，
13:22
because I'm a prominent advocate
of the existence of human nature,
of the existence of human nature,
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3416
因為我是人性存在的主要倡導者，
13:25
with all its shortcomings
and perversities.
and perversities.
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3416
即使這天性有各種缺陷和任性。
13:28
In my book "The Blank Slate,"
259
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在我的書《空白的石板》中，
13:30
I argued that the human prospect
is more tragic than utopian
is more tragic than utopian
260
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4136
我主張人類的前景
比烏托邦要更悲劇些，
比烏托邦要更悲劇些，
13:34
and that we are not stardust,
we are not golden
we are not golden
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且我們並非星塵，我們不是黃金的，
13:37
and there's no way
we are getting back to the garden.
we are getting back to the garden.
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所以我們不可能回到花園。
（註：一首歌的歌詞）
（註：一首歌的歌詞）
13:39
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:42
But my worldview has lightened up
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但在《空白的石板》出版後的
13:44
in the 15 years since
"The Blank Slate" was published.
"The Blank Slate" was published.
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15 年間，我的世界觀亮了起來。
13:47
My acquaintance with
the statistics of human progress,
the statistics of human progress,
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我最先熟悉的
人類進步相關統計數字，
人類進步相關統計數字，
13:50
starting with violence
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是暴力相關的數字，
13:51
but now encompassing
every other aspect of our well-being,
every other aspect of our well-being,
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但現在包含了我們
幸福的每一個面向，
幸福的每一個面向，
13:55
has fortified my belief
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這加強了我的信念，
13:57
that in understanding
our tribulations and woes,
our tribulations and woes,
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相信在了解我們的動亂與不幸上，
14:00
human nature is the problem,
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問題其實是人類天性，
14:02
but human nature, channeled
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
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但透過啟蒙標準與制度做為管道，
人類天性也同樣是解決方案。
14:06
is also the solution.
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14:09
Admittedly, it's not easy
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
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顯然，很難把我自己
透過資料而導出的醒悟，
透過資料而導出的醒悟，
14:14
with humanity at large.
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複製到人類總體上。
14:16
Some intellectuals have responded
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所以，知識分子對我的書
14:18
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"
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《現在的啟蒙》反應是非常憤怒，
14:21
saying first how dare he claim
that intellectuals hate progress,
that intellectuals hate progress,
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首先，說他怎麼有膽子
聲稱知識分子討厭進步，
聲稱知識分子討厭進步，
14:25
and second, how dare he claim
that there has been progress.
that there has been progress.
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再來，他怎麼有膽子聲稱有進步。
14:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:32
With others, the idea of progress
just leaves them cold.
just leaves them cold.
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對於其他人，進步的想法
只讓他們心寒。
只讓他們心寒。
14:35
Saving the lives of billions,
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拯救數十億人的性命，
14:37
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
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消滅疾病，提供食物給飢餓的人，
14:40
teaching kids to read?
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教孩子識字？
14:42
Boring.
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無聊。
14:44
At the same time, the most common response
I have received from readers is gratitude,
I have received from readers is gratitude,
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同時，我從讀者得到的回應中，
最常見的是感激，
最常見的是感激，
14:49
gratitude for changing
their view of the world
their view of the world
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感激我改變了他們的世界觀，
14:51
from a numb and helpless fatalism
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從一種麻木和無助的宿命論，
14:54
to something more constructive,
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變得更有建設性，
14:55
even heroic.
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甚至更英勇。
14:57
I believe that the ideals
of the Enlightenment
of the Enlightenment
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我相信，啟蒙的理想
14:59
can be cast a stirring narrative,
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能被用很激動人心的方式描述，
15:01
and I hope that people
with greater artistic flare
with greater artistic flare
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我希望比我更有藝術氣息
15:04
and rhetorical power than I
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和修辭能力的人，
15:06
can tell it better and spread it further.
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能說得更好，傳播得更遠更廣。
15:09
It goes something like this.
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類似這樣。
15:12
We are born into a pitiless universe,
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我們出生在無情的世界，
15:14
facing steep odds
against life-enabling order
against life-enabling order
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面臨著對生命有利的秩序的嚴重衝擊，
15:18
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
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並且一直處於崩潰的危險之中。
15:21
We were shaped by a process
that is ruthlessly competitive.
that is ruthlessly competitive.
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形塑我們的過程，
是個無情競爭的過程。
是個無情競爭的過程。
15:25
We are made from crooked timber,
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我們是用歪曲的木材製成的，
15:27
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
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容易產生幻想，以自我為中心，
15:30
and at times astounding stupidity.
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有時甚至還驚人的愚蠢。
15:33
Yet human nature has also
been blessed with resources
been blessed with resources
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然而，人類天性也因資源而得福，
15:36
that open a space
for a kind of redemption.
for a kind of redemption.
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這些資源打開了某種救贖用的空間。
15:39
We are endowed with the power
to combine ideas recursively,
to combine ideas recursively,
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我們被賦予不斷遞回式地
將想法結合的力量，
將想法結合的力量，
15:42
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
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對我們的想法有所想法的力量。
15:45
We have an instinct for language,
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我們對於語言具有直覺，
15:47
allowing us to share the fruits
of our ingenuity and experience.
of our ingenuity and experience.
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讓我們能分享我們
心靈手巧和經驗的果實。
心靈手巧和經驗的果實。
15:51
We are deepened
with the capacity for sympathy,
with the capacity for sympathy,
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我們還有更深一層的能力，
會同情、憐惜、想像、同理、憐憫。
15:54
for pity, imagination,
compassion, commiseration.
compassion, commiseration.
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15:59
These endowments have found ways
to magnify their own power.
to magnify their own power.
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這些才能已經找到
放大本身力量的方式。
放大本身力量的方式。
16:03
The scope of language has been augmented
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語言的範圍已經被擴增，
16:05
by the written, printed
and electronic word.
and electronic word.
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靠的是書寫、列印，和電子文字。
16:09
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
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我們的同情圈已經被擴展，
16:11
by history, journalism
and the narrative arts.
and the narrative arts.
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靠的是歷史、新聞，和敘事性藝術。
16:15
And our puny rational faculties
have been multiplied
have been multiplied
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我們微不足道的理性機能已經倍增，
16:18
by the norms and institutions of reason,
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靠的是理性的標準和制度、
16:20
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
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需要智力的好奇心、公開辯論、
16:24
skepticism of authority and dogma
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對於權威及污名的懷疑態度，
16:26
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
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和通過面對現實
來驗證觀點的舉證責任。
來驗證觀點的舉證責任。
16:29
by confronting them against reality.
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16:32
As the spiral of recursive improvement
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隨著遞迴式改善的螺旋勢頭
越來越強勁，
越來越強勁，
16:34
gathers momentum,
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16:36
we eke out victories
against the forces that grind us down,
against the forces that grind us down,
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在對抗壓榨我們的力量時，
我們的勝算增加了，
我們的勝算增加了，
16:40
not least the darker parts
of our own nature.
of our own nature.
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特別是我們自身天性中
較黑暗的部分。
較黑暗的部分。
16:43
We penetrate the mysteries
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
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我們看透了宇宙的神秘，
包括生命和心智。
包括生命和心智。
16:48
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
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我們活得更久，
受得苦難更少，學習得更多，
受得苦難更少，學習得更多，
16:52
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
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變得更聰明，享受更多小小的樂趣，
16:54
and rich experiences.
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以及豐富的經驗。
16:57
Fewer of us are killed,
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
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被他人殺害、攻擊、奴役、利用，
17:01
or oppressed by the others.
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或迫害的人數變少了。
17:03
From a few oases, the territories
with peace and prosperity are growing
with peace and prosperity are growing
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4496
和平繁榮的領域在變大，
從只有幾個綠洲，
從只有幾個綠洲，
17:08
and could someday encompass the globe.
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到有一天會貫穿全球。
17:11
Much suffering remains
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許多的苦難和極大的危險仍然存在，
17:13
and tremendous peril,
336
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17:15
but ideas on how to reduce them
have been voiced,
have been voiced,
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已經有人提出如何減少它們的想法，
17:18
and an infinite number of others
are yet to be conceived.
are yet to be conceived.
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3895
還有無數的想法還沒被構想出來。
17:22
We will never have a perfect world,
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我們永遠不會有一個完美的世界，
17:24
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
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2256
去尋找這樣的世界是很危險的。
17:26
But there's no limit
to the betterments we can attain
to the betterments we can attain
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但如果我們繼續運用知識
來增進人類的繁榮，
來增進人類的繁榮，
17:29
if we continue to apply knowledge
to enhance human flourishing.
to enhance human flourishing.
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那麼我們能獲得的改善無限。
17:34
This heroic story
is not just another myth.
is not just another myth.
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這英勇的故事並不是另一個神話。
17:37
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
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神話是虛構的，這個故事是真實的，
17:41
true to the best of our knowledge,
which is the only truth we can have.
which is the only truth we can have.
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就我們所知是真實的，而我們的所知
就是我們唯一能擁有的真相。
就是我們唯一能擁有的真相。
17:44
As we learn more,
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隨著我們越學越多，
17:46
we can show which parts of the story
continue to be true and which ones false,
continue to be true and which ones false,
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我們能夠顯示出故事中
哪些部分仍然真實，哪些虛假，
17:50
as any of them might be
and any could become.
and any could become.
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任何部分都有可能是真是假，
也可能變真或成空。
也可能變真或成空。
17:54
And this story belongs not to any tribe
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這個故事不屬於任何種族，
17:56
but to all of humanity,
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而是屬於全人類的，
17:58
to any sentient creature
with the power of reason
with the power of reason
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屬於任何具有理性力量、感知能力，
18:02
and the urge to persist in its being,
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以及有強烈慾望想要活下來的生物，
18:05
for it requires only the convictions
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因為只需要相信
18:07
that life is better than death,
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生命比死亡更好，
18:09
health is better than sickness,
355
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健康比生病更好，
18:11
abundance is better than want,
356
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豐足比缺乏更好，
18:13
freedom is better than coercion,
357
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自由比脅迫更好，
18:16
happiness is better than suffering
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幸福比受苦更好，
18:18
and knowledge is better
than ignorance and superstition.
than ignorance and superstition.
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知識比無知和迷信更好。
18:22
Thank you.
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謝謝。
18:23
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - PsychologistSteven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.
Why you should listen
Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.
To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.
In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature, The Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com