ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lauren Sallan - Paleobiologist
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens.

Why you should listen

Lauren Sallan uses the vast fossil record of fishes as a deep time database, mining to find out why some species persist and diversify while others die off. She has used these methods to discover the lost, largest, "sixth" mass extinction of vertebrates; the end-Devonian Hangenberg event (359 million years ago), reveal how fish heads changed first during their rise to dominance; test why some species thrive after global disruptions while others flounder; and show how invasions by new predators can shift prey diversity at global scales.

Sallan is the Martin Meyerson Assistant Professor in Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, based in the Department Earth and Environmental Science, and became a TED Fellow in 2017. Her research has been published in Science, PNAS and Current Biology. It has also been featured in the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, Forbes, the New Scientist, the Discovery Channel and the recent popular science book, The Ends of the World by Peter Brannen.


More profile about the speaker
Lauren Sallan | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Lauren Sallan: How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction

劳伦 · 萨兰: 如何在进化过程中胜出,并在生物大灭绝中幸存

Filmed:
1,193,525 views

恭喜大家!你们是活着来到这里的历史幸运儿——也是40亿年来进化过程的顶峰。有99%的物种没有活着看到这一天——它们不是死于火灾,洪水,小行星碰撞,就是灭绝于极热以及自然选择冷酷无情的法则。我们人类怎么会如此幸运,以后也会如此幸运吗? 在这个简短却有趣的演讲里,古生物学家,TED研究员劳伦 · 萨兰和大家分享了她的研究发现,讲述我们的祖先们如何挺过了生物大灭绝,并造就了今日的我们。
- Paleobiologist
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
Congratulations祝贺.
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恭喜大家!
00:14
By being存在 here,
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能够来到这里,
活着听演讲,
00:15
listening, alive,
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00:17
a member会员 of a growing生长 species种类,
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作为一个不断壮大的物种中的一员,
00:19
you are one of history's历史上
greatest最大 winners获奖者 --
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你们是进化史上的大赢家——
00:22
the culmination大成 of a success成功 story故事
four billion十亿 years年份 in the making制造.
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达到了40亿年物种进化的顶峰。
00:27
You are life's人生 one percent百分.
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你们占了物种的1%。
00:30
The losers失败者,
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而那些没能来到这里的失败者,
00:32
the 99 percent百分 of species种类
who have ever lived生活,
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那些曾经活着的99%,
00:34
are dead --
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已经死了——
不是死于火灾,水灾,小行星撞击,
00:36
killed杀害 by fire, flood洪水, asteroids小行星,
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被捕食,就是死于饥寒交迫和高温,
00:39
predation捕食, starvation饥饿, ice, heat
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或被物竞天择这一冷酷无情的法则淘汰。
00:41
and the cold math数学 of natural自然 selection选择.
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00:45
Your ancestors祖先,
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而你们的祖先,
也就是那些早期的鱼类,
00:46
back to the earliest最早 fishes鱼类,
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克服了种种困难存活了下来。
00:47
overcame克服了 all these challenges挑战.
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00:50
You are here because
of golden金色 opportunities机会
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你们今天来到这里实属难得,
而这要归因于物种大灭绝。
00:53
made制作 possible可能 by mass extinction灭绝.
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00:57
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:01
It's true真正.
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千真万确。
这包括你们那些活下来的同伴和亲戚,
01:02
The same相同 is true真正
of your co-winners共同获胜 and relatives亲戚们.
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01:05
The 34,000 kinds of fishes鱼类.
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也就是其它34000 种鱼类。
01:08
How did we all get so lucky幸运?
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为何我们如此幸运?
这种幸运会持续多久?
01:10
Will we continue继续 to win赢得?
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01:13
I am a fish paleobiologist古生物学家
who uses使用 big data数据 --
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我是一个鱼类古生物学家,
我通过大数据 ——
也就是化石记录——
01:17
the fossil化石 record记录 --
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研究物种存活或灭绝的原因。
01:18
to study研究 how some species种类 win赢得
and others其他 lose失去.
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01:22
The living活的 can't tell us;
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那些活着的鱼什么也不能告诉我们,
它们除了活着,什么也不知道。
01:23
they know nothing but winning胜利.
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01:25
So, we must必须 speak说话 with the dead.
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所以,我们必须要从那些
死去的物种身上找答案。
01:27
How do we make dead fishes鱼类 talk?
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但我们如何使死鱼说话呢?
01:30
Museums博物馆 contain包含 multitudes众人
of beautiful美丽 fish fossils化石,
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博物馆里存放着大量美丽的鱼化石,
但将它们和更多难看而又支离破碎的
01:34
but their real真实 beauty美女 emerges出现
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01:36
when combined结合 with the larger
number of ugly丑陋, broken破碎 fossils化石,
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鱼化石相结合,并且被分为
有意义和无意义两个类别后,
它们真正的价值才显现出来。
01:40
and reduced减少 to ones那些 and zeros.
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01:43
I can trawl拖网 a 500-million-year-million年 database数据库
for evolutionary发展的 patterns模式.
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我可以从一个记录着五亿年进化史的
数据库里,打捞出进化模式。
01:48
For example,
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比如:
将鱼的形状进行归类,
01:49
fish forms形式 can be captured捕获 by coordinates坐标
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01:53
and transformed改造 to reveal揭示
major重大的 pathways途径 of change更改
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然后重组,就能够揭示跨越时空的
01:57
and trends趋势 through通过 time.
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主要进化途径和规律。
02:00
Here is the story故事
of the winners获奖者 and losers失败者
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化石数据显示,优胜劣汰的故事
02:02
of just one pivotal关键的 event事件
I discovered发现 using运用 fossil化石 data数据.
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和一个生死攸关的事件有关。
02:07
Let's travel旅行 back 360 million百万 years年份 --
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让我们穿越回3.6亿年前——
也就是距最后的恐龙灭绝的时间
再往前推大约六倍的时间,
02:11
six times as long ago
as the last dinosaur恐龙 --
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即古生代,
02:15
to the Devonian泥盆纪 period;
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那是一个奇异的世界。
02:17
a strange奇怪 world世界.
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02:19
Armored装甲 predators大鳄
with razor-edge剃刀边缘 jaws dominated占主导地位
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有着利刃般下颚的身披盔甲的
捕食动物是主宰者,
与它们共存的是那些
鱼翅中长着臂骨的巨型鱼。
02:23
alongside并肩 huge巨大 fishes鱼类
with arm bones骨头 in their fins鳍片.
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02:29
Crab-like蟹类 fishes鱼类 scuttled凿沉
across横过 the sea floor地板.
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这些鱼如同螃蟹一样在海底穿行。
02:33
The few少数 ray-fin射线翅 relatives亲戚们
of salmon三文鱼 and tuna金枪鱼
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而三文鱼金枪鱼的几个亲戚,
那些鳍刺鱼类,
则蜷缩在食物链的底层。
02:36
cowered蜷缩 at the bottom底部 of the food餐饮 chain.
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02:40
The few少数 early sharks鲨鱼
lived生活 offshore海上 in fear恐惧.
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几种早期的鲨鱼为了求生
栖居在近海区域。
02:44
Your few少数 four-legged四条腿 ancestors祖先,
the tetrapods四足动物,
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而你们少数四条腿的祖先,那些四足动物,
02:48
struggled挣扎 in tropical热带 river plains平原.
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在热带河流平原勉强度日。
02:52
Ecosystems生态 were crowded.
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生态系统拥挤不堪,
02:54
There was no escape逃逸,
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逃无可逃,
生机渺茫。
02:56
no opportunity机会 in sight视力.
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02:59
Then the world世界 ended结束.
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然后就是世界末日。
03:00
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
别误会,这可是件好事。
03:02
No, it is a good thing.
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96%的鱼类
03:04
96 percent百分 of all fish species种类 died死亡
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03:08
during the HangenbergHangenberg event事件,
359 million百万 years年份 ago:
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死于3.59亿年前的泥盆纪末生物大灭绝:
那真是一个冰与火的轮回炼狱。
03:13
an interval间隔 of fire and ice.
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03:15
A crowded world世界 was disrupted破坏
and swept风靡 away.
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从前拥挤不堪的世界格局被打破并抹平了。
03:19
Now, you might威力 think
that's the end结束 of the story故事.
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现在,你也许认为故事就这么结束了。
大家伙倒台,小生物逆袭,
03:22
The mighty威武 fell下跌,
the meek温顺 inherited遗传 the earth地球,
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03:24
and here we are.
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于是就有了我们。
03:26
But winning胜利 is not that simple简单.
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但是胜出并没有那么易如反掌。
03:30
The handful少数 of survivors幸存者
came来了 from many许多 groups --
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那些为数不多幸存下来的不同物种——
03:33
all greatly非常 outnumbered寡不敌众 by their own拥有 dead.
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相较于那些死去的同类,数量少得可怜。
03:36
They ranged不等 from top最佳 predator捕食者
to bottom-feeder底部进料器,
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可以将它们从强到弱,
03:39
big to small,
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由大到小,
03:40
marine海洋 to freshwater淡水.
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由海洋生物到淡水生物排列来开。
03:42
The extinction灭绝 was a filter过滤.
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物种大灭绝是一种过滤。
03:44
It merely仅仅 leveled夷为平地 the playing播放 field领域.
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但仅仅是扫平了战场而已。
03:47
What really counted was what survivors幸存者 did
over the next下一个 several一些 million百万 years年份
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而真正起作用的是那些幸存者
在接下来几亿年光阴的所作所为,
03:52
in that devastated满目疮痍 world世界.
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末日后的世界,一片狼藉。
03:56
The former前任的 overlords霸主
should have had an advantage优点.
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从前的大家伙因为有着先天优势,
03:59
They became成为 even larger,
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从而变得更巨大,
04:01
storing存储 energy能源,
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储蓄能量,
04:02
investing投资 in their young年轻,
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并传递给后代,
它们的群体渐渐遍布整个地球,
04:04
spreading传播 across横过 the globe地球,
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以鱼类为食,
04:05
feasting灯红酒绿 on fishes鱼类,
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保留曾经起作用的机能,
并等待它们的时机。
04:07
keeping保持 what had always worked工作,
and biding招标 their time.
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04:10
Yet然而 they merely仅仅 persisted坚持 for a while,
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但它们并没有兴旺多久,
因为没有进化,数量越来越少,
04:13
declining下降 without innovating创新,
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04:16
becoming变得 living活的 fossils化石.
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直至成为活化石。
04:18
They were too stuck卡住 in their ways方法
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它们困于自身的局限性里,
04:20
and are now largely大部分 forgotten忘记了.
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直至今日,几乎被遗忘。
04:24
A few少数 of the long-suffering长期遭受苦难 ray-fins射线片,
sharks鲨鱼 and four-legged四条腿 tetrapods四足动物
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一些耐得住考验的鳍刺鱼类,
鲨鱼,和四腿生物的命运
却与那些大家伙背道而驰。
04:29
went the opposite对面 direction方向.
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04:31
They became成为 smaller --
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它们体型变得更小——
04:33
living活的 fast快速,
dying垂死 young年轻,
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长得快,死的早,
04:35
eating little
and reproducing再现 rapidly急速.
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吃得少,繁殖快。
04:37
They tried试着 new foods食品,
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它们尝试新食物,
新环境,
04:39
different不同 homes家园,
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长得奇形怪状。
04:40
strange奇怪 heads
and weird奇怪的 bodies身体.
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04:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:44
And they found发现 opportunity机会, proliferated激增,
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然后它们找到了机会,繁衍生息,
04:47
and won韩元 the future未来
for their 60,000 living活的 species种类,
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并为6万活着的物种赢得了将来,
04:51
including包含 you.
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包括你们。
这就是为何它们看起来如此面熟。
04:52
That's why they look familiar.
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04:54
You know their names.
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你知道它们的名字。
04:57
Winning胜利 is not about random随机 events事件
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胜出不是偶尔事件,
或体能竞赛。
05:00
or an arms武器 race种族.
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相反,是因为幸存者选择了
不同的进化途径。
05:01
Rather, survivors幸存者 went down alternative替代,
evolutionary发展的 pathways途径.
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05:06
Some found发现 incredible难以置信 success成功,
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有的令人难以置信的成功了,
05:08
while others其他 became成为 dead fish walking步行.
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而有的虽生犹死。
05:12
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
05:14
A real真实 scientific科学 term术语.
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这是真正的科学术语。
05:16
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
现在,我在研究
05:18
I am now investigating调查
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05:19
how these pathways途径 to victory胜利 and defeat打败
repeat重复 across横过 time.
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这些胜败之路是如何
在时间的长河里重复上演的。
05:24
My lab实验室 has already已经 compiled编译 thousands数千
upon thousands数千 of dead fishes鱼类,
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我的实验室里堆满了数以万计的鱼骸,
05:28
but many许多 more remain.
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而且还会有所增加。
然而,目前很清楚的是,
05:29
However然而, it is already已经 clear明确
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05:31
that your ancestors'祖先' survival生存
through通过 mass extinction灭绝,
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你们的祖先从生物大灭绝中死里逃生,
而它们在劫后余生的反应,
05:35
and their responses回复 in the aftermath后果
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05:37
made制作 you who you are today今天.
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造就了今日的你们。
05:40
What does this tell us for the future未来?
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这些对未来有什么启示呢?
05:42
As long as a handful少数 of species种类 survive生存,
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那就是,只要有为数不多的物种存活,
05:45
life will recover恢复.
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生命就会繁衍不息。
05:47
The versatile多才多艺 and the lucky幸运
will not just replace更换 what was lost丢失,
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那些幸运、适应力又强的家伙
不但会取代已经没落的物种,
05:51
but win赢得 in new forms形式.
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而且会以新的形态胜出。
05:53
It just might威力 take several一些 million百万 years年份.
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只不过,这要花上几百万年。
05:56
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
(掌声)
05:57
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by Grace Lirong
Reviewed by Jiawei Ni

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lauren Sallan - Paleobiologist
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens.

Why you should listen

Lauren Sallan uses the vast fossil record of fishes as a deep time database, mining to find out why some species persist and diversify while others die off. She has used these methods to discover the lost, largest, "sixth" mass extinction of vertebrates; the end-Devonian Hangenberg event (359 million years ago), reveal how fish heads changed first during their rise to dominance; test why some species thrive after global disruptions while others flounder; and show how invasions by new predators can shift prey diversity at global scales.

Sallan is the Martin Meyerson Assistant Professor in Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, based in the Department Earth and Environmental Science, and became a TED Fellow in 2017. Her research has been published in Science, PNAS and Current Biology. It has also been featured in the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, Forbes, the New Scientist, the Discovery Channel and the recent popular science book, The Ends of the World by Peter Brannen.


More profile about the speaker
Lauren Sallan | Speaker | TED.com