TED2017
Lauren Sallan: How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction
Loren Salan (Lauren Sallan): Kako pobediti u evoluciji i preživeti masovno izumiranje
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Čestitam. Time što ste ovde, živi, jedan ste od pobednika istorije, što je kulminacija priče o uspehu koja je nastajala četiri milijarde godina. Preostalih 99 posto vrsta koje su ikada živele su mrtve - ubila ih je vatra, poplava, asteroidi, predacija, izgladnjivanje, hladnoća, vrućina i hladnokrvni proračun prirodne selekcije. Kako smo imali toliko sreće i hoćemo li nastaviti da pobeđujemo? U ovom kratkom, duhovitom govoru, paleobiolog i član programa TED Fellows, Loren Salan, deli uvide o tome kako je opstanak vaših predaka kroz masovno izumiranje proizveo ono što ste danas.
Lauren Sallan - Paleobiologist
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Congratulations.
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Čestitam.
00:14
By being here,
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Time što ste ovde,
00:15
listening, alive,
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što slušate, što ste živi,
00:17
a member of a growing species,
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pripadnici vrste koja se uvećava,
00:19
you are one of history's
greatest winners --
greatest winners --
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nalazite se među najvećim
pobednicima u istoriji,
pobednicima u istoriji,
00:22
the culmination of a success story
four billion years in the making.
four billion years in the making.
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što je kulminacija priče o uspehu
koja je nastajala četiri milijarde godina.
koja je nastajala četiri milijarde godina.
00:27
You are life's one percent.
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Vi ste privilegovana grupa u prirodi.
00:30
The losers,
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Gubitnici,
00:32
the 99 percent of species
who have ever lived,
who have ever lived,
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99 posto vrsta koje su ikada živele,
00:34
are dead --
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mrtvi su -
00:36
killed by fire, flood, asteroids,
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ubila ih je vatra, poplava, asteroidi,
00:39
predation, starvation, ice, heat
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predacija, izgladnjivanje,
hladnoća, vrućina
hladnoća, vrućina
00:41
and the cold math of natural selection.
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i hladnokrvni proračun prirodne selekcije.
00:45
Your ancestors,
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Vaši preci,
00:46
back to the earliest fishes,
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još od prvih riba,
00:47
overcame all these challenges.
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prevazišli su sve te izazove.
00:50
You are here because
of golden opportunities
of golden opportunities
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Ovde ste zbog zlatnih prilika
00:53
made possible by mass extinction.
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koje je omogućilo masovno izumiranje.
00:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:01
It's true.
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Istina je.
01:02
The same is true
of your co-winners and relatives.
of your co-winners and relatives.
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Ovo važi i za one koji su pobedili
zajedno sa vama i vaše srodnike.
zajedno sa vama i vaše srodnike.
01:05
The 34,000 kinds of fishes.
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Za 34 000 vrsta riba.
01:08
How did we all get so lucky?
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Kako smo imali toliko sreće?
01:10
Will we continue to win?
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Hoćemo li nastaviti da pobeđujemo?
01:13
I am a fish paleobiologist
who uses big data --
who uses big data --
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Ja sam riblji paleobiolog
koji koristi velike podatke,
koji koristi velike podatke,
01:17
the fossil record --
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fosilne ostatke,
01:18
to study how some species win
and others lose.
and others lose.
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radi izučavanja načina na koje neke vrste
pobeđuju, a druge gube.
pobeđuju, a druge gube.
One koje su u životu nam to ne mogu reći;
01:22
The living can't tell us;
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01:23
they know nothing but winning.
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znaju samo za pobeđivanje.
01:25
So, we must speak with the dead.
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Zato moramo da razgovaramo sa mrtvima.
01:27
How do we make dead fishes talk?
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Kako da nateramo mrtve ribe da progovore?
01:30
Museums contain multitudes
of beautiful fish fossils,
of beautiful fish fossils,
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Muzeji sadrže mnoštvo
prelepih fosila riba,
prelepih fosila riba,
01:34
but their real beauty emerges
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ali njihova prava lepota se pojavljuje
01:36
when combined with the larger
number of ugly, broken fossils,
number of ugly, broken fossils,
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u kombinaciji sa većim brojem
ružnih, polomljenih fosila
ružnih, polomljenih fosila
01:40
and reduced to ones and zeros.
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svedenih na jedinice i nule.
01:43
I can trawl a 500-million-year database
for evolutionary patterns.
for evolutionary patterns.
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Mogu izvući bazu podataka za evolucione
obrasce tokom 500 miliona godina.
obrasce tokom 500 miliona godina.
01:48
For example,
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Na primer,
01:49
fish forms can be captured by coordinates
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oblici riba se mogu zabeležiti
pomoću koordinata
pomoću koordinata
01:53
and transformed to reveal
major pathways of change
major pathways of change
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i transformisati tako da otkriju
glavne puteve promena
glavne puteve promena
01:57
and trends through time.
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i trendove kroz vreme.
02:00
Here is the story
of the winners and losers
of the winners and losers
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Evo priče o pobednicima i gubitnicima
02:02
of just one pivotal event
I discovered using fossil data.
I discovered using fossil data.
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samo jednog važnog događaja
koju sam otkrila pomoću fosilnih podataka.
koju sam otkrila pomoću fosilnih podataka.
02:07
Let's travel back 360 million years --
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Vratimo se 360 miliona godina unazad -
02:11
six times as long ago
as the last dinosaur --
as the last dinosaur --
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šest puta više vremena
nego od poslednjeg dinosaurusa -
nego od poslednjeg dinosaurusa -
02:15
to the Devonian period;
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u period devona;
02:17
a strange world.
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čudan svet.
02:19
Armored predators
with razor-edge jaws dominated
with razor-edge jaws dominated
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Dominirali su predatori
naoružani oštrim čeljustima,
naoružani oštrim čeljustima,
02:23
alongside huge fishes
with arm bones in their fins.
with arm bones in their fins.
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zajedno sa ogromnim ribama
sa kostima u perajima.
sa kostima u perajima.
02:29
Crab-like fishes scuttled
across the sea floor.
across the sea floor.
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Ribe nalik na rakove
jurcale su po morskom dnu.
jurcale su po morskom dnu.
02:33
The few ray-fin relatives
of salmon and tuna
of salmon and tuna
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Nekolicina zrakoperki,
rođaka lososa i tune,
rođaka lososa i tune,
02:36
cowered at the bottom of the food chain.
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bilo je pritajeno na dnu lanca ishrane.
02:40
The few early sharks
lived offshore in fear.
lived offshore in fear.
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Nekoliko prvih ajkula
živelo je u strahu udaljeno od obala.
živelo je u strahu udaljeno od obala.
02:44
Your few four-legged ancestors,
the tetrapods,
the tetrapods,
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Nekoliko vaših predaka
sa četiri noge, tetrapoda,
sa četiri noge, tetrapoda,
02:48
struggled in tropical river plains.
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mučilo se u tropskim rečnim dolinama.
02:52
Ecosystems were crowded.
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Ekosistemi su bili skučeni.
02:54
There was no escape,
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Nije bilo izlaza,
02:56
no opportunity in sight.
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niti prilike na vidiku.
02:59
Then the world ended.
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Tada je nastao smak sveta.
03:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:02
No, it is a good thing.
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Ne, to je dobra stvar.
03:04
96 percent of all fish species died
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Devedeset šest posto
svih vrsta riba je umrlo
svih vrsta riba je umrlo
03:08
during the Hangenberg event,
359 million years ago:
359 million years ago:
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tokom Hangenbergovog događaja,
pre 359 miliona godina,
pre 359 miliona godina,
03:13
an interval of fire and ice.
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što je interval vatre i leda.
03:15
A crowded world was disrupted
and swept away.
and swept away.
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Prenatrpan svet je prekinut i zbrisan.
03:19
Now, you might think
that's the end of the story.
that's the end of the story.
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Možda ćete pomisliti da je to kraj priče.
03:22
The mighty fell,
the meek inherited the earth,
the meek inherited the earth,
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Moćnici su pali,
smerni su nasledili zemlju,
smerni su nasledili zemlju,
03:24
and here we are.
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i eto nas ovde.
03:26
But winning is not that simple.
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Ali, pobeđivanje nije tako jednostavno.
03:30
The handful of survivors
came from many groups --
came from many groups --
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Šačica preživelih
potekla je iz više grupa,
potekla je iz više grupa,
a većinom ih je brojalo manje
nego što ih je bilo mrtvih.
nego što ih je bilo mrtvih.
03:33
all greatly outnumbered by their own dead.
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Bilo ih je u rasponu od velikih predatora
do onih koji se hrane na dnu,
do onih koji se hrane na dnu,
03:36
They ranged from top predator
to bottom-feeder,
to bottom-feeder,
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03:39
big to small,
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od velikih do malih,
03:40
marine to freshwater.
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od morskih do slatkovodnih.
03:42
The extinction was a filter.
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Izumiranje je bilo filter.
03:44
It merely leveled the playing field.
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Prosto je izbalansiralo situaciju.
03:47
What really counted was what survivors did
over the next several million years
over the next several million years
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Ono što je zaista bilo bitno
je šta su preživeli radili
je šta su preživeli radili
tokom narednih nekoliko miliona godina
u tom razorenom svetu.
u tom razorenom svetu.
03:52
in that devastated world.
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03:56
The former overlords
should have had an advantage.
should have had an advantage.
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Trebalo bi da su bivši gospodari
imali prednost.
imali prednost.
03:59
They became even larger,
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Postali su još veći,
04:01
storing energy,
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čuvali su energiju,
04:02
investing in their young,
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ulagali u svoje mlade,
04:04
spreading across the globe,
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širili se po planeti,
04:05
feasting on fishes,
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hranili se ribama,
nastavili sa onim
što je uvek funkcionisalo
što je uvek funkcionisalo
04:07
keeping what had always worked,
and biding their time.
and biding their time.
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i ubijali vreme.
04:10
Yet they merely persisted for a while,
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Ipak, samo su istrajali neko vreme,
04:13
declining without innovating,
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propadajući bez inovativnosti,
04:16
becoming living fossils.
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postavši živi fosili.
04:18
They were too stuck in their ways
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Suviše su se ukopali u svoje načine
04:20
and are now largely forgotten.
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i sada su većim delom zaboravljeni.
04:24
A few of the long-suffering ray-fins,
sharks and four-legged tetrapods
sharks and four-legged tetrapods
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Nekoliko zrakoperki
koje su se dugo mučile,
koje su se dugo mučile,
ajkula i četvoronožnih tetrapoda
krenulo je u suprotnom pravcu.
krenulo je u suprotnom pravcu.
04:29
went the opposite direction.
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04:31
They became smaller --
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Postali su manji -
04:33
living fast,
dying young,
dying young,
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živeli su brzo, umirali mladi,
04:35
eating little
and reproducing rapidly.
and reproducing rapidly.
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jeli malo i brzo se razmnožavali.
04:37
They tried new foods,
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Isprobavali su novu hranu,
04:39
different homes,
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različita staništa,
04:40
strange heads
and weird bodies.
and weird bodies.
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neobične glave i čudna tela.
04:43
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:44
And they found opportunity, proliferated,
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Pronašli su priliku, razmnožili se
04:47
and won the future
for their 60,000 living species,
for their 60,000 living species,
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i izborili se za budućnost
za svojih 60 000 živih vrsta,
za svojih 60 000 živih vrsta,
04:51
including you.
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ukljućujući vas.
04:52
That's why they look familiar.
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Zato izgledaju poznato.
04:54
You know their names.
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Znate njihova imena.
04:57
Winning is not about random events
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Pobeđivanje nema veze
sa nasumičnim događajima
sa nasumičnim događajima
05:00
or an arms race.
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ili trkom u naoružanju.
05:01
Rather, survivors went down alternative,
evolutionary pathways.
evolutionary pathways.
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Umesto toga, preživeli su krenuli
alternativnim evolucionim stazama.
alternativnim evolucionim stazama.
05:06
Some found incredible success,
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Neki su došli do neverovatnog uspeha,
05:08
while others became dead fish walking.
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dok su drugi postali mrtva riba koja hoda.
05:12
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:14
A real scientific term.
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To je pravi naučni termin.
05:16
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:18
I am now investigating
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Trenutno istražujem
05:19
how these pathways to victory and defeat
repeat across time.
repeat across time.
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kako se te staze pobede i poraza
ponavljaju tokom vremena.
ponavljaju tokom vremena.
05:24
My lab has already compiled thousands
upon thousands of dead fishes,
upon thousands of dead fishes,
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Moja laboratorija je već prikupila
hiljade mrtvih riba,
hiljade mrtvih riba,
05:28
but many more remain.
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ali mnogo ih je još ostalo.
05:29
However, it is already clear
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Međutim, već je jasno
05:31
that your ancestors' survival
through mass extinction,
through mass extinction,
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da je opstanak vaših predaka
kroz masovno izumiranje
kroz masovno izumiranje
05:35
and their responses in the aftermath
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i njihov posledični odgovor
05:37
made you who you are today.
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proizveo ono što ste danas.
05:40
What does this tell us for the future?
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Šta nam ovo poručuje vezano za budućnost?
05:42
As long as a handful of species survive,
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Dok god nekolicina vrsta preživi,
05:45
life will recover.
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život će se oporaviti.
05:47
The versatile and the lucky
will not just replace what was lost,
will not just replace what was lost,
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Prilagodljivi i srećni neće samo zameniti
ono što je izgubljeno,
ono što je izgubljeno,
05:51
but win in new forms.
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već će pobediti u novom obliku.
05:53
It just might take several million years.
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Samo će za to možda trebati
nekoliko miliona godina.
nekoliko miliona godina.
05:56
Thank you.
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Hvala.
05:57
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lauren Sallan - PaleobiologistTED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens.
Why you should listen
Lauren Sallan uses the vast fossil record of fishes as a deep time database, mining to find out why some species persist and diversify while others die off. She has used these methods to discover the lost, largest, "sixth" mass extinction of vertebrates; the end-Devonian Hangenberg event (359 million years ago), reveal how fish heads changed first during their rise to dominance; test why some species thrive after global disruptions while others flounder; and show how invasions by new predators can shift prey diversity at global scales.
Sallan is the Martin Meyerson Assistant Professor in Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, based in the Department Earth and Environmental Science, and became a TED Fellow in 2017. Her research has been published in Science, PNAS and Current Biology. It has also been featured in the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, Forbes, the New Scientist, the Discovery Channel and the recent popular science book, The Ends of the World by Peter Brannen.
Lauren Sallan | Speaker | TED.com