ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Sutherland - Advertising guru
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment.

Why you should listen

From unlikely beginnings as a classics teacher to his current job as Vice Chairman of Ogilvy Group, Rory Sutherland has created his own brand of the Cinderella story. He joined Ogilvy & Mather's planning department in 1988, and became a junior copywriter, working on Microsoft's account in its pre-Windows days. An early fan of the Internet, he was among the first in the traditional ad world to see the potential in these relatively unknown technologies.

An immediate understanding of the possibilities of digital technology and the Internet powered Sutherland's meteoric rise. He continues to provide insight into advertising in the age of the Internet and social media through his blog at Campaign's Brand Republic site, his column "The Wiki Man" at The Spectator and his busy Twitter account.

More profile about the speaker
Rory Sutherland | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxAthens

Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything

Rory Sutherland: 看法決定一切

Filmed:
2,524,934 views

Rory Sutherland認為,人生中的各種境遇不如我們對此境遇的看法重要。在TEDxAthens,他令人信服地闡釋了轉變看法是獲得幸福的關鍵。
- Advertising guru
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
What you have here
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我拿著的
00:18
is an electronic電子 cigarette香煙.
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是一根電子香煙
00:21
It's something that's, since以來 it was invented發明 a year or two ago,
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它自從一兩年前被發明後
00:25
has given特定 me untold數不清 happiness幸福.
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已帶給我不可言喻的快樂
00:27
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:28
A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine尼古丁,
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一小部分原因是尼古丁
00:30
but there's something much bigger than that.
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但還有更重要的原因
00:32
Which哪一個 is ever since以來, in the U.K., they banned取締 smoking抽煙 in public上市 places地方,
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自從英國禁止在公共場所吸煙
00:37
I've never enjoyed享受 a drinks飲料 party派對 ever again.
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我就再也沒有享受過酒會了
00:41
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:42
And the reason原因, I only worked工作 out just the other day,
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我不久前才總結出個原因
00:46
which哪一個 is when you go to a drinks飲料 party派對
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就是當你來到一場酒會
00:48
and you stand up and you hold保持 a glass玻璃 of red wine紅酒
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站在那裡,手拿一杯紅酒
00:50
and you talk endlessly不休 to people,
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口若懸河
00:51
you don't actually其實 want to spend all the time talking.
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你可不願意一直講話
00:54
It's really, really tiring累人.
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那太累了
00:56
Sometimes有時 you just want to stand there silently默默, alone單獨 with your thoughts思念.
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有時候你只是想靜靜地站著想點事情
01:00
Sometimes有時 you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window窗口.
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有時候你只是想站在角落望著窗外
01:04
Now the problem問題 is, when you can't smoke抽煙,
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問題來了——當你不能抽煙的時候
01:07
if you stand and stare out of the window窗口 on your own擁有,
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如果你獨自一人站著並望著窗外
01:11
you're an antisocial反社會的, friendless無依無靠 idiot白痴.
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你就是個沒朋友的社交白癡
01:14
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:15
If you stand and stare out of the window窗口 on your own擁有 with a cigarette香煙,
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如果你獨自站著望向窗外,拿著一根煙
01:19
you're a fucking他媽的 philosopher哲學家.
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你就是個深沉的哲學家
01:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:24
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
01:29
So the power功率 of reframing重新定義 things
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所以說重新定義事物的威力
01:34
cannot不能 be overstated誇大.
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怎麼講都不會太誇大
01:37
What we have is exactly究竟 the same相同 thing, the same相同 activity活動,
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兩個完全一樣的東西、行為
01:41
but one of them makes品牌 you feel great
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其中一種讓你感覺良好
01:43
and the other one, with just a small change更改 of posture姿勢,
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而另一種,只要稍作改變
01:46
makes品牌 you feel terrible可怕.
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就能讓你感覺極差
01:49
And I think one of the problems問題 with classical古典 economics經濟學
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我認為古典經濟學的一個問題
01:51
is it's absolutely絕對 preoccupied斤斤計較 with reality現實.
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在於它過分關注現實
01:54
And reality現實 isn't a particularly尤其 good guide指南 to human人的 happiness幸福.
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但現實並非是通向人類幸福的好指南
01:59
Why, for example,
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比如說
02:01
are pensioners領取養老金 much happier幸福
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為什麼領退休金的老人
02:04
than the young年輕 unemployed失業的?
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比年輕失業者更快樂?
02:06
Both of them, after all, are in exactly究竟 the same相同 stage階段 of life.
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畢竟二者的生活型態完全相同
02:10
You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.
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手上有太多時間,卻沒有多少錢可花
02:13
But pensioners領取養老金 are reportedly據說 very, very happy快樂,
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但是退休老人據稱非常非常快樂
02:16
whereas the unemployed失業的 are extraordinarily異常 unhappy不快樂 and depressed鬱悶.
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而失業者則極度消沉及絕望
02:20
The reason原因, I think, is that the pensioners領取養老金 believe they've他們已經 chosen選擇 to be pensioners領取養老金,
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我認為原因在於,退休老人相信
這身份是自己選擇成為的
02:24
whereas the young年輕 unemployed失業的
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而年輕失業者
02:26
feel it's been thrust推力 upon them.
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卻感覺是被迫失業的
02:29
In England英國 the upper middle中間 classes have actually其實 solved解決了 this problem問題 perfectly完美,
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在英國,上層的中產階級
已完美地解決這個問題
02:33
because they've他們已經 re-branded重新命名 unemployment失業.
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他們重新包裝了失業這回事
02:36
If you're an upper-middle-class上層中產階級 English英語 person,
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如果你屬於英國的上層中產階級
02:38
you call unemployment失業 "a year off."
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你管失業叫「一年假期」
02:41
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:43
And that's because having a son兒子 who's誰是 unemployed失業的 in Manchester曼徹斯特
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因為你兒子要是在曼徹斯特失了業
02:47
is really quite相當 embarrassing尷尬,
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是一件蠻丟臉的事
02:49
but having a son兒子 who's誰是 unemployed失業的 in Thailand泰國
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但如果你兒子是在泰國賦閒
02:52
is really viewed觀看 as quite相當 an accomplishment成就.
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則是一項非凡的成就
02:54
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:56
But actually其實 the power功率 to re-brand重品牌 things --
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事實上,重新包裝事物的威力是--
02:58
to understand理解 that actually其實 our experiences經驗, costs成本, things
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瞭解到我們的經驗、花費、事物
03:03
don't actually其實 much depend依靠 on what they really are,
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並不太取決於它們自身
03:06
but on how we view視圖 them --
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而是取決於我們如何看待它們
03:08
I genuinely真正的 think can't be overstated誇大.
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我確實相信這威力不容小覷
03:10
There's an experiment實驗 I think Daniel丹尼爾 Pink refers to
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我記得Daniel Pink提到過一個實驗
03:13
where you put two dogs小狗 in a box
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你把兩隻狗關在箱子裡
03:16
and the box has an electric電動 floor地板.
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箱子底部通電
03:20
Every一切 now and then an electric電動 shock休克 is applied應用的 to the floor地板,
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不定時的給予電擊
03:25
which哪一個 pains辛勞 the dogs小狗.
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讓狗受到痛苦
03:27
The only difference區別 is one of the dogs小狗 has a small button按鍵 in its half of the box.
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唯一的不同是,其中一隻狗
在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕
03:32
And when it nuzzles鼻擦 the button按鍵, the electric電動 shock休克 stops停止.
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當它用鼻子按那個按鈕
電擊就停止了
03:36
The other dog doesn't have the button按鍵.
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另一隻狗沒有這個按鈕
03:39
It's exposed裸露 to exactly究竟 the same相同 level水平 of pain疼痛 as the dog in the first box,
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它感受到的電擊痛苦與前一隻狗完全相同
03:43
but it has no control控制 over the circumstances情況.
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但它對局面沒有任何掌控
03:46
Generally通常 the first dog can be relatively相對 content內容.
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基本上,第一隻狗相對地滿足
03:50
The second第二 dog lapses失效 into complete完成 depression蕭條.
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第二隻狗則陷入深深的絕望
03:54
The circumstances情況 of our lives生活 may可能 actually其實 matter less to our happiness幸福
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人生境遇對我們幸福的影響力
03:59
than the sense of control控制 we feel over our lives生活.
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比不上我們對人生的控制感
04:03
It's an interesting有趣 question.
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這是個有趣的問題
04:06
We ask the question -- the whole整個 debate辯論 in the Western西 world世界
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整個西方世界都在爭論
04:09
is about the level水平 of taxation稅收.
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稅收水準究竟該怎麼定
04:11
But I think there's another另一個 debate辯論 to be asked,
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但我認為另一個爭論應被提出
04:13
which哪一個 is the level水平 of control控制 we have over our tax money.
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就是我們對稅款的控制程度
04:17
That what costs成本 us 10 pounds英鎊 in one context上下文 can be a curse詛咒.
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在某種情況下花的10英鎊可能是個詛咒
04:21
What costs成本 us 10 pounds英鎊 in a different不同 context上下文 we may可能 actually其實 welcome歡迎.
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而在另一種情況下
花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎
04:27
You know, pay工資 20,000 pounds英鎊 in tax toward health健康
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你知道,花費2萬英鎊稅金投資健康
04:31
and you're merely僅僅 feeling感覺 a mug.
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你會感到自己是個冤大頭
04:33
Pay工資 20,000 pounds英鎊 to endow賦予 a hospital醫院 ward病房
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但花費2萬英鎊去捐贈一間醫院病房
04:37
and you're called a philanthropist慈善家.
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你會被稱作慈善家
04:39
I'm probably大概 in the wrong錯誤 country國家 to talk about willingness願意 to pay工資 tax.
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也許我在這個國家不適合談論納稅的意願
04:43
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
04:45
So I'll give you one in return返回. How you frame things really matters事項.
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所以作為補償
我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要
04:50
Do you call it the bailout救助 of Greece希臘
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到底要稱作對希臘的緊急金援
04:53
or the bailout救助 of a load加載 of stupid banks銀行 which哪一個 lent借給 to Greece希臘?
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還是稱作一堆愚蠢的銀行
笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助?
04:56
Because they are actually其實 the same相同 thing.
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因為這兩種說法實際上是同一回事
04:59
What you call them actually其實 affects影響
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你如何定調一個問題
05:01
how you react應對 to them, viscerally發自內心 and morally道德.
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會影響到你心理以及倫理上的反應
05:05
I think psychological心理 value is great to be absolutely絕對 honest誠實.
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坦白說我認為心理價值非常重要
05:08
One of my great friends朋友, a professor教授 called Nick缺口 Chater遮打,
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我有一位很好的朋友
Nick Chater教授
05:11
who's誰是 the Professor教授 of Decision決策 Sciences科學 in London倫敦,
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在倫敦研究決策科學
05:14
believes相信 that we should spend far less time
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他認為我們應該大大減少
05:17
looking into humanity's人類的 hidden depths深處
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探討人性隱藏深度的時間
05:19
and spend much more time exploring探索 the hidden shallows淺灘.
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而把更多時間用在探索人性隱藏的膚淺上
05:22
I think that's true真正 actually其實.
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我深深以為
05:23
I think impressions印象 have an insane effect影響
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印象能夠強烈地影響
05:26
on what we think and what we do.
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我們的所想所為
05:28
But what we don't have is a really good model模型 of human人的 psychology心理學.
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但我們缺乏一個人類心理學的好模型
05:33
At least最小 pre-Kahneman預卡尼曼 perhaps也許,
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至少可能在卡尼曼之前的年代
05:35
we didn't have a really good model模型 of human人的 psychology心理學
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我們一直都沒有一個比較好的人類心理學模型
05:38
to put alongside並肩 models楷模 of engineering工程, of neoclassical新古典 economics經濟學.
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以與工程學模型和新古典經濟學模型比肩
05:42
So people who believed相信 in psychological心理 solutions解決方案 didn't have a model模型.
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因此那些相信心理學解釋的人們
沒有可用的模型
05:46
We didn't have a framework骨架.
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沒有理論框架可用
05:48
This is what Warren養兔場 Buffett's巴菲特 business商業 partner夥伴 Charlie查理 Munger芒格 calls電話
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這就是巴菲特的生意夥伴查理‧孟格所稱
05:51
"a latticework格子 on which哪一個 to hang your ideas思路."
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“一個用來懸掛你想法的格子框架”
05:53
Engineers工程師, economists經濟學家, classical古典 economists經濟學家
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工程師、經濟學家、古典學派經濟學家
05:57
all had a very, very robust強大的 existing現有 latticework格子
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都有一個非常強有力的現有理論框架
06:00
on which哪一個 practically幾乎 every一切 idea理念 could be hung.
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用來準確定位任何一個相關想法
06:03
We merely僅僅 have a collection採集 of random隨機 individual個人 insights見解
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心理學卻只有一些隨機的個人見解
06:06
without an overall總體 model模型.
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但缺乏整體的理論框架
06:09
And what that means手段 is that in looking at solutions解決方案,
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這就意味當我們尋求解決方案時
06:13
we've我們已經 probably大概 given特定 too much priority優先
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我們太過側重於
06:16
to what I call technical技術 engineering工程 solutions解決方案, Newtonian牛頓 solutions解決方案,
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工程學方面的、牛頓思維的辦法
06:20
and not nearly幾乎 enough足夠 to the psychological心理 ones那些.
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而對心理學方向的關注遠遠不足
06:23
You know my example of the Eurostar歐洲之星.
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你們都知道我那個關於歐洲之星的例子
06:25
Six million百萬 pounds英鎊 spent花費 to reduce減少 the journey旅程 time
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六百億英鎊花在將巴黎與倫敦
06:27
between之間 Paris巴黎 and London倫敦 by about 40 minutes分鐘.
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之間的車程縮短40分鐘
06:31
For 0.01 percent百分 of this money you could have put WiFi無線上網 on the trains火車,
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但只要花這筆錢的1%
你可以讓列車有WiFi網路
06:36
which哪一個 wouldn't不會 have reduced減少 the duration持續時間 of the journey旅程,
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這雖然不會縮短旅程的時間
06:38
but would have improved改善 its enjoyment享受 and its usefullness有用性 far more.
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但會大大增加旅程的樂趣和用途
06:42
For maybe 10 percent百分 of the money,
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用這筆錢的10分之1
06:44
you could have paid支付 all of the world's世界 top最佳 male and female supermodels超級名模
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你就能請到全世界的男女超級名模
06:48
to walk步行 up and down the train培養 handing移交 out free自由 Chateau酒莊 Petrus佩特魯斯 to all the passengers乘客.
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在走道上向所有旅客分發免費的波得路堡葡萄酒
06:53
You'd still have five [million百萬] pounds英鎊 in change更改,
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你還能剩下50億英鎊
06:56
and people would ask for the trains火車 to be slowed放緩 down.
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旅客還可能會要求列車減速
06:59
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:02
Why were we not given特定 the chance機會
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我們為什麼從未嘗試
07:05
to solve解決 that problem問題 psychologically心理?
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從心理學的角度來解決問題?
07:07
I think it's because there's an imbalance失調, an asymmetry不對稱,
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我想這是因為我們對待以下兩種思維方式
是不平衡、不對稱的
07:10
in the way we treat對待 creative創作的, emotionally-driven情感驅動 psychological心理 ideas思路
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一種是創造性的、情緒引導的心理學思維方式
07:14
versus the way we treat對待 rational合理的, numerical數字的, spreadsheet-driven電子表格驅動 ideas思路.
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另一種理性的、數據的、報表引導的思維方式
07:20
If you're a creative創作的 person, I think quite相當 rightly正當地,
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如果你是一個創造性的人
07:22
you have to share分享 all your ideas思路 for approval贊同
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你必須將自己的想法分享給
07:24
with people much more rational合理的 than you.
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更理性的人,獲得他們的批准
07:26
You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit成本效益 analysis分析,
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你必須給出一個成本收益分析
07:30
a feasibility可行性 study研究, an ROI投資回報率 study研究 and so forth向前.
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一個可行性研究
投資回報率分析之類的東西
07:33
And I think that's probably大概 right.
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這也許沒有錯
07:35
But this does not apply應用 the other way around.
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但當情況反過來時卻是行不通的
07:38
People who have an existing現有 framework骨架,
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那些已有理論框架
07:40
an economic經濟 framework骨架, an engineering工程 framework骨架,
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經濟學框架、工程學框架
07:43
feel that actually其實 logic邏輯 is its own擁有 answer回答.
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認為邏輯是自身的答案
07:46
What they don't say is, "Well the numbers數字 all seem似乎 to add up,
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他們不會說:“數字看來是沒錯
07:49
but before I present當下 this idea理念, I'll go and show顯示 it to some really crazy people
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但我要在報告這個想法之前
我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人
07:52
to see if they can come up with something better."
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看他們能不能有更好的想法。”
07:55
And so we, artificially人為 I think, prioritize優先
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所以我們人為地
07:58
what I'd call mechanistic機械 ideas思路 over psychological心理 ideas思路.
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將機械化思維置於心理學思維之上
08:02
An example of a great psychological心理 idea理念:
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這裡有個關於心理學解決方案的絕佳例子:
08:05
The single best最好 improvement起色 in passenger乘客 satisfaction滿意 on the London倫敦 Underground地下 per pound spent花費
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倫敦地鐵花錢在改善乘客滿意度上最好的措施
08:10
came來了 when they didn't add any extra額外 trains火車 nor也不 change更改 the frequency頻率 of the trains火車,
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並不是增加列車數量
或者改變行班間距
08:15
they put dot matrix矩陣 display顯示 board on the platforms平台.
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而是在月臺上放置了顯示營幕
08:18
Because the nature性質 of a wait
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由於等待的特性
08:21
is not just dependent依賴的 on its numerical數字的 quality質量, its duration持續時間,
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並不完全取決於等待時間的長度
08:24
but on the level水平 of uncertainty不確定 you experience經驗 during that wait.
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而是取決於你等待時所感受不確定性的程度
08:27
Waiting等候 seven minutes分鐘 for a train培養 with a countdown倒數 clock時鐘
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在計時器的倒計時中等待7分鐘
08:30
is less frustrating洩氣 and irritating刺激性
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其間的沮喪和煩躁遠低於
08:32
than waiting等候 four minutes分鐘, knuckle-biting關節咬
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只等了四分鐘,但咬著手指不斷逼問
08:34
going, "When's當的 this train培養 going to damn該死的 well arrive到達?"
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這該死的車什麼時候才來?
08:38
Here's這裡的 a beautiful美麗 example of a psychological心理 solution deployed部署 in Korea韓國.
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韓國也有個很棒的心理學解決方案
08:41
Red traffic交通 lights燈火 have a countdown倒數 delay延遲.
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紅燈時有倒數計時
08:44
It's proven證明 to reduce減少 the accident事故 rate in experiments實驗.
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這在實驗中被證實能夠降低事故發生率
08:47
Why? Because road rage憤怒, impatience不耐煩 and general一般 irritation刺激
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為什麼?因為交通上的憤怒、不耐和焦躁
08:50
are massively大規模 reduced減少 when you can actually其實 see the time you have to wait.
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在你能清楚看到剩下的等待時間時
被大大降低
08:55
In China中國, not really understanding理解 the principle原理 behind背後 this,
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在中國,不知為何
08:58
they applied應用的 the same相同 principle原理 to green綠色 traffic交通 lights燈火.
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他們在綠燈的時候運用同樣方法
09:01
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:04
Which哪一個 isn't a great idea理念.
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這可不是個好主意
09:07
You're 200 yards away, you realize實現 you've got five seconds to go, you floor地板 it.
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你離路口還有200碼遠
看到綠燈還剩5秒,就直接衝過去
09:11
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:13
The Koreans韓國人, very assiduously刻苦鑽研, did test測試 both.
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韓國人很嚴謹的測試了兩種情況
09:17
The accident事故 rate goes down when you apply應用 this to red traffic交通 lights燈火;
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給紅燈倒計時,事故率降低
09:20
it goes up when you apply應用 it to green綠色 traffic交通 lights燈火.
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而給綠燈倒計時,事故率則上升
09:23
This is all I'm asking for really in human人的 decision決定 making製造,
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我呼籲人們在做決策時
09:26
is the consideration考慮 of these three things.
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考慮這三個方面
(投影:技術、心理、經濟)
09:28
I'm not asking for the complete完成 primacy首位 of one over the other.
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它們的重要性不分先後
09:31
I'm merely僅僅 saying that when you solve解決 problems問題,
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我只是希望當你解決問題時
09:33
you should look at all three of these equally一樣
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同等重要地考慮以下這三個要素
09:35
and you should seek尋求 as far as possible可能
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你應盡可能地
09:38
to find solutions解決方案 which哪一個 sit in the sweet spot in the middle中間.
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去找尋匯聚三者的完美解決方案
09:41
If you actually其實 look at a great business商業,
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如果你實際去評估一家好公司
09:43
you'll你會 nearly幾乎 always see all of these three things coming未來 into play.
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你幾乎都會看到這三個方面的作為
09:46
Really, really successful成功 businesses企業 --
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貨真價實的成功企業
09:49
Google谷歌 is great, great technological技術性 success成功,
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Google是成功的科技公司
09:51
but it's also based基於 on a very good psychological心理 insight眼光:
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但它同時反映出非常好的心理學洞見
09:54
People believe something that only does one thing
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人們相信專注於一種業務的公司
09:58
is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else其他.
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在此種業務上要比多樣化的公司做得更出色
10:02
It's an innate先天 thing called goal目標 dilution稀釋.
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這種固有的信念叫做目標稀釋
10:05
AyeletAyelet FishbachFishbach has written書面 a paper about this.
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阿耶萊-費斯巴赫寫了一篇關於這件事的論文
10:07
Everybody每個人 else其他 at the time of Google谷歌, more or less,
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Google出現時的其他同業公司
10:10
was trying to be a portal門戶.
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都在努力成為入口網站
10:11
Yes, there's a search搜索 function功能,
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的確,他們有搜索功能
10:12
but you also have weather天氣, sports體育 scores分數, bits of news新聞.
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但也有天氣預報、體育賽事比分、一點新聞報導
10:16
Google谷歌 understood了解 that if you're just a search搜索 engine發動機,
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Google明白如果你僅僅是一個搜尋引擎
10:19
people assume承擔 you're a very, very good search搜索 engine發動機.
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人們會假定你是非常好的搜尋引擎
10:22
All of you know this actually其實
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你們所有人
10:24
from when you go in to buy購買 a television電視.
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在買電視的時候都深刻體會到這點
10:26
And in the shabbier破舊 end結束 of the row of flat平面 screen屏幕 TVs電視
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在那排平板電視最後的破爛角落裡
10:29
you can see are these rather despised鄙視 things called combined結合 TV電視 and DVDDVD players玩家.
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有一種備受冷落的機器叫電視與DVD組合播放機
10:34
And we have no knowledge知識 whatsoever任何 of the quality質量 of those things,
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你對這種東西的品質一無所知
10:37
but we look at a combined結合 TV電視 and DVDDVD player播放機 and we go, "UckUCK.
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但我們眼看這電視與DVD播放器的組合
就會觀感很差
10:41
It's probably大概 a bit of a crap擲骰子 telly電視中 and a bit rubbish垃圾 as a DVDDVD player播放機."
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覺得這可能是爛電視和爛DVD播放機的組合吧
10:46
So we walk步行 out of the shops商店 with one of each.
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所以我們走出商店時會分別買這兩種機器
10:48
Google谷歌 is as much a psychological心理 success成功 as it is a technological技術性 one.
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Google在心理學方面的成功和
技術上的成功同樣重要
10:53
I propose提出 that we can use psychology心理學 to solve解決 problems問題
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我提議我們可以用心理學來解決
10:56
that we didn't even realize實現 were problems問題 at all.
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那些我們甚至不認為是問題的問題
10:59
This is my suggestion建議 for getting得到 people to finish their course課程 of antibiotics抗生素.
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我有個幫助人們完成抗生素療程的建議
11:02
Don't give them 24 white白色 pills.
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不要給他們24顆白色藥片
11:05
Give them 18 white白色 pills and six blue藍色 ones那些
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給他們18顆白色藥片和6顆藍色藥片
11:07
and tell them to take the white白色 pills first and then take the blue藍色 ones那些.
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告訴他們先吃白的,再吃藍的
11:11
It's called chunking分塊.
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這叫做組塊化
11:13
The likelihood可能性 that people will get to the end結束 is much greater更大
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人們堅持到最後的可能性大大增加
11:16
when there is a milestone里程碑 somewhere某處 in the middle中間.
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因為中途有個里程碑
11:19
One of the great mistakes錯誤, I think, of economics經濟學
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我想經濟學一個顯著的錯誤
11:22
is it fails失敗 to understand理解 that what something is,
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就是沒有認知到某個事項
11:24
whether是否 it's retirement退休, unemployment失業, cost成本,
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無論是退休、失業,還是花費
11:28
is a function功能, not only of its amount, but also its meaning含義.
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都不僅是作用或是數據
更具有心理意義
11:33
This is a toll收費 crossing路口 in Britain英國.
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在英國有個收費站
11:36
Quite相當 often經常 queues隊列 happen發生 at the tolls過路費.
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通常在收費站都要排隊
11:39
Sometimes有時 you get very, very severe嚴重 queues隊列.
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有時候甚至大排長龍
11:41
You could apply應用 the same相同 principle原理 actually其實, if you like,
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如果你願意,可以採取
11:43
to the security安全 lanes車道 in airports機場.
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與機場安檢同樣的方法
11:45
What would happen發生 if you could actually其實 pay工資 twice兩次 as much money to cross交叉 the bridge,
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要是你要繳納兩倍的過橋費才能快速通過
11:49
but go through通過 a lane車道 that's an express表現 lane車道?
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那會發生什麼情況?
11:51
It's not an unreasonable不合理 thing to do. It's an economically經濟 efficient高效 thing to do.
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這可不是無理要求
而是一個經濟上高效率的做法
11:55
Time means手段 more to some people than others其他.
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時間的價值對某些人比其他人更高
11:57
If you're waiting等候 trying to get to a job工作 interview訪問,
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如果你要去參加求職面試
12:00
you'd patently公然 pay工資 a couple一對 of pounds英鎊 more to go through通過 the fast快速 lane車道.
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你顯然願意花多幾英鎊走快速通道
12:04
If you're on the way to visit訪問 your mother母親 in-law姻親,
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如果你是要去見岳母
12:07
you'd probably大概 prefer比較喜歡 to stay on the left.
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你可能更願意走普通車道
12:11
The only problem問題 is if you introduce介紹 this economically經濟 efficient高效 solution,
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實施這項經濟高效措施的唯一麻煩就是
12:15
people hate討厭 it.
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人們厭惡它
12:17
Because they think you're deliberately故意 creating創建 delays延遲 at the bridge
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他們會以為你將故意製造橋上的擁堵
12:20
in order訂購 to maximize最大化 your revenue收入,
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來增加收入
12:21
and "Why on earth地球 should I pay工資 to subsidize資助 your imcompetenceimcompetence?"
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他們會想“為什麼我要掏錢為你的無能買單?”
12:25
On the other hand, change更改 the frame slightly
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然而,若稍稍改變做法
12:27
and create創建 charitable慈善 yield產量 management管理,
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增加所得的慈善管理
12:30
so the extra額外 money you get goes not to the bridge company公司, it goes to charity慈善機構,
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不讓增收的錢款歸入路橋公司
而作慈善用途
12:35
and the mental心理 willingness願意 to pay工資 completely全然 changes變化.
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人們的付款意願將會截然不同
12:38
You have a relatively相對 economically經濟 efficient高效 solution,
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你擁有了一個經濟上相對高效的解決方案
12:42
but one that actually其實 meets符合 with public上市 approval贊同
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同時也會被公眾接納
12:44
and even a small degree of affection感情,
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甚至還受到一點點的喜愛
12:46
rather than being存在 seen看到 as bastardy私生子.
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而不是被視為卑鄙無恥
12:49
So where economists經濟學家 make the fundamental基本的 mistake錯誤
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所以,經濟學家基本上的錯誤在於
12:52
is they think that money is money.
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他們認為錢就是錢
12:55
Actually其實 my pain疼痛 experienced有經驗的 in paying付款 five pounds英鎊
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實際上我付5英鎊時的痛苦
13:00
is not just proportionate均衡 to the amount,
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與金額大小沒有直接關係
13:02
but where I think that money is going.
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而是在我所認定之錢的用途
13:04
And I think understanding理解 that could revolutionize革命化 tax policy政策.
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我相信理解這點將會對稅收政策帶來革命
13:07
It could revolutionize革命化 the public上市 services服務.
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它會對公共服務帶來革命
13:10
It could really change更改 things quite相當 significantly顯著.
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它將會顯著的改變現狀
13:12
Here's這裡的 a guy you all need to study研究.
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你們需要這個人研究一下
(投影:路德維希‧馮‧米塞斯是我的英雄)
13:15
He's an Austrian school學校 economist經濟學家
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他是奧地利學派的一位經濟學家
13:16
who was first active活性 in the first half of the 20th century世紀 in Vienna維也納.
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20世紀上半葉在維也納嶄露頭角
13:22
What was interesting有趣 about the Austrian school學校
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奧地利學派的特點在於
13:24
is they actually其實 grew成長 up alongside並肩 Freud弗洛伊德.
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它是與佛洛伊德共同成長的
13:27
And so they're predominantly主要 interested有興趣 in psychology心理學.
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所以他們十分仰賴心理學
13:29
They believed相信 that there was a discipline學科 called praxeology人類行為學,
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他們認為有行為學這門學說
13:34
which哪一個 is a prior discipline學科 to the study研究 of economics經濟學.
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要高於經濟學
13:36
Praxeology人類行為學 is the study研究 of human人的 choice選擇, action行動 and decision決定 making製造.
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行為學研究人類如何選擇、行動和決策
13:41
I think they're right.
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我認為他們是對的
13:43
I think the danger危險 we have in today's今天的 world世界
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現今世界的危險在於
13:45
is we have the study研究 of economics經濟學
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我們現有的經濟學
13:47
considers考慮 itself本身 to be a prior discipline學科 to the study研究 of human人的 psychology心理學.
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認為自身比人類心理學更重要
13:51
But as Charlie查理 Munger芒格 says, "If economics經濟學 isn't behavioral行為的,
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但正如查理‧孟格所言:“如果經濟不具備行為學的特質
13:54
I don't know what the hell地獄 is."
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我則不知道它是什麼東西。”
13:56
Von Mises米塞斯, interestingly有趣, believes相信 economics經濟學 is just a subset子集 of psychology心理學.
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有意思的是,馮‧米塞斯認為
經濟學只是心理學的分支
14:03
I think he just refers to economics經濟學 as
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他認為經濟學只是
14:05
"the study研究 of human人的 praxeology人類行為學 under conditions條件 of scarcity缺乏."
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“在稀有條件下的人類行為學研究”
14:08
But von Mises米塞斯, among其中 many許多 other things,
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馮‧米塞斯在諸多貢獻中
14:11
I think uses使用 an analogy比喻 which哪一個 is probably大概 the best最好 justification理由 and explanation說明
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最重要的是他運用了最佳的類比來說明
14:17
for the value of marketing營銷, the value of perceived感知 value
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行銷的價值和感知價值
14:20
and the fact事實 that we should actually其實 treat對待 it as being存在 absolutely絕對 equivalent當量
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事實上我們應絕對平等的對待感知價值
14:24
to any other kind of value.
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一如其他種類的價值
14:26
We tend趨向 to, all of us -- even those of us who work in marketing營銷 --
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我們所有人,甚至是從事行銷的人
14:28
to think of value in two ways方法.
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都傾向於把價值分為兩種
14:30
There's the real真實 value,
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一種是真實價值
14:31
which哪一個 is when you make something in a factory and provide提供 a service服務,
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就是在工廠製造商品或提供服務
14:33
and then there's a kind of dubious可疑 value,
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另一種是不確定的價值
14:35
which哪一個 you create創建 by changing改變 the way people look at things.
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來自於改變人們對事物的觀感
14:38
Von Mises米塞斯 completely全然 rejected拒絕 this distinction分別.
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馮‧米塞斯完全反對這種分野
14:41
And he used this following以下 analogy比喻.
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他用的是以下的類比
14:42
He referred簡稱 actually其實 to strange奇怪 economists經濟學家 called the French法國 Physiocrats重農學派,
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他提到一個叫做法國重農主義的古怪經濟學派
14:48
who believed相信 that the only true真正 value was what you extracted提取 from the land土地.
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他們相信只有土地的產出物才有真正的價值
14:52
So if you're a shepherd牧羊人 or a quarryman採石工人 or a farmer農民,
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所以如果你是牧羊人、礦工或農民
14:54
you created創建 true真正 value.
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你才創造真正的價值
14:56
If however然而, you bought some wool羊毛 from the shepherd牧羊人
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但如果有人從牧羊人手中買下羊毛
14:59
and charged帶電 a premium額外費用 for converting轉換 it into a hat帽子,
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做成帽子,賺取更高利潤
15:02
you weren't actually其實 creating創建 value,
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就不是創造價值
15:04
you were exploiting利用 the shepherd牧羊人.
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而是在剝削牧羊人
15:06
Now von Mises米塞斯 said that modern現代 economists經濟學家 make exactly究竟 the same相同 mistake錯誤
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馮‧米塞斯提出現代經濟學(與重農主義者)
15:10
with regard看待 to advertising廣告 and marketing營銷.
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在對待廣告和行銷上犯了一模一樣的錯誤
15:12
He says, if you run a restaurant餐廳,
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他說,如果你經營一家餐館
15:15
there is no healthy健康 distinction分別 to be made製作
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你沒辦法去嚴格區分
15:17
between之間 the value you create創建 by cooking烹飪 the food餐飲
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烹飪食物所創造的價值
15:19
and the value you create創建 by sweeping籠統的 the floor地板.
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和打掃地板的價值
15:21
One of them creates創建, perhaps也許, the primary product產品 --
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前一項創造了主要產品
15:25
the thing we think we're paying付款 for --
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消費者認為花錢購買的是菜肴
15:26
the other one creates創建 a context上下文
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另一項則創造了環境
15:28
within which哪一個 we can enjoy請享用 and appreciate欣賞 that product產品.
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消費者在這個環境中享用產品
15:31
And the idea理念 that one of them should actually其實 have priority優先 over the other
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若認為一項比另一項更重要
15:34
is fundamentally從根本上 wrong錯誤.
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是個根本性的錯誤
15:36
Try this quick thought experiment實驗.
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讓我們來做個快速的思維實驗
15:37
Imagine想像 a restaurant餐廳 that serves供應 Michelin-starred米其林星級 food餐飲,
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想像一家餐廳
提供米其林星級水準的食物
15:40
but actually其實 where the restaurant餐廳 smells氣味 of sewage污水
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但餐廳裡惡臭彌漫
15:43
and there's human人的 feces on the floor地板.
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地板上屎尿橫流
15:47
The best最好 thing you can do there to create創建 value
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你在這家餐廳創造價值的最好方法
15:49
is not actually其實 to improve提高 the food餐飲 still further進一步,
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不是去更進一步提升菜餚品質
15:52
it's to get rid擺脫 of the smell and clean清潔 up the floor地板.
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而是去除異味,清潔地板
15:56
And it's vital重要 we understand理解 this.
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理解這點至關重要
15:59
If that seems似乎 like some strange奇怪, abstruse thing,
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如果這看起來古怪、荒謬
16:02
in the U.K., the post崗位 office辦公室 had a 98 percent百分 success成功 rate
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英國郵政有98%的成功投遞率
16:06
at delivering交付 first-class頭等 mail郵件 the next下一個 day.
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讓平信隔天送達
16:09
They decided決定 this wasn't good enough足夠
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他們認為這還不夠好
16:11
and they wanted to get it up to 99.
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1962
想要把結果提升到99%
16:13
The effort功夫 to do that almost幾乎 broke打破 the organization組織.
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為了做這樣的事差點毀了整個組織
16:17
If at the same相同 time you'd gone走了 and asked people,
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如果你同時去問民眾
16:20
"What percentage百分比 of first-class頭等 mail郵件 arrives到達 the next下一個 day?"
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“平信隔天寄到的比率有多少?”
16:24
the average平均 answer回答, or the modal語氣 answer回答 would have been 50 to 60 percent百分.
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一般典型的回答是50%-60%
16:28
Now if your perception知覺 is much worse更差 than your reality現實,
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如果公眾感知遠遠低於實際情況
16:31
what on earth地球 are you doing trying to change更改 the reality現實?
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你為什麼還要去改變實際情況?
16:34
That's like trying to improve提高 the food餐飲 in a restaurant餐廳 that stinks.
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這就像試著在臭餐廳裡提升食物品質
16:38
What you need to do
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你需要做的
16:40
is first of all tell people
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首先是去告訴民眾
16:42
that 98 percent百分 of mail郵件 gets得到 there the next下一個 day, first-class頭等 mail郵件.
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平信隔天到達的比率已達到98%
16:46
That's pretty漂亮 good.
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這已經很不錯了
16:48
I would argue爭論, in Britain英國 there's a much better frame of reference參考,
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不過我認為
在英國還有更好用的說法
16:51
which哪一個 is to tell people
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就是告訴民眾
16:52
that more first-class頭等 mail郵件 arrives到達 the next下一個 day
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英國平信的隔日送達率
16:54
in the U.K. than in Germany德國.
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超過德國
16:56
Because generally通常 in Britain英國 if you want to make us happy快樂 about something,
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因為一般來說
你如果想要英國人高興
16:59
just tell us we do it better than the Germans德國.
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就告訴他們我們做得比德國好
17:01
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
17:03
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌)
17:05
Choose選擇 your frame of reference參考 and the perceived感知 value
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選則你的說法和感知價值
17:10
and therefore因此 the actual實際 value is completely全然 tranformedtranformed.
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事物的真實價值就會完全改變
17:13
It has to be said of the Germans德國
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我們得承認德國人
17:15
that the Germans德國 and the French法國 are doing a brilliant輝煌 job工作
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1967
與法國人一起讓歐洲團結
17:17
of creating創建 a united聯合的 Europe歐洲.
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非常了不起
17:19
The only thing they don't expect期望 is they're uniting團結 Europe歐洲
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他們唯一沒有料到的是
這個團結的歐洲
17:21
through通過 a shared共享 mild溫和 hatred of the French法國 and Germans德國.
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都對法國人和德國人有些輕微憎恨
17:24
But I'm British英國的, that's the way we like it.
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但我是英國人
我喜歡這樣的結果
17:27
What you also notice注意 is that in any case案件 our perception知覺 is leaky洩漏.
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你也要注意我們的感知是有漏洞的
17:32
We can't tell the difference區別 between之間 the quality質量 of the food餐飲
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我們無法區分食物品質
17:35
and the environment環境 in which哪一個 we consume消耗 it.
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和相應的就餐環境
17:37
All of you will have seen看到 this phenomenon現象
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你們應該都觀察到一個現象
17:39
if you have your car汽車 washed or valetedvaleted.
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只要洗過車或讓人泊過車
17:41
When you drive駕駛 away, your car汽車 feels感覺 as if it drives驅動器 better.
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當你開走時,會感覺車子更好開了
17:45
And the reason原因 for this,
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而這個原因
17:47
unless除非 my car汽車 valet代客 mysteriously神秘 is changing改變 the oil
352
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2781
除非是洗車員偷偷地更換了機油
17:50
and performing執行 work which哪一個 I'm not paying付款 him for and I'm unaware不知道 of,
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或者在我不知情的前提下免費為我的車做了什麼
17:53
is because perception知覺 is in any case案件 leaky洩漏.
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是因為感知總是有漏洞的
17:55
Analgesics止痛藥 that are branded品牌 are more effective有效 at reducing減少 pain疼痛
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有品牌的止痛藥的止痛效果
17:59
than analgesics止痛藥 that are not branded品牌.
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比沒品牌的要好
18:02
I don't just mean through通過 reported報導 pain疼痛 reduction減少,
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我的論據並不是患者自己說疼痛減輕
18:04
actual實際 measured測量 pain疼痛 reduction減少.
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1998
而是實際測量的疼痛減輕
18:06
And so perception知覺 actually其實 is leaky洩漏 in any case案件.
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所以說,感知總是有漏洞的
18:10
So if you do something that's perceptually感知 bad in one respect尊重,
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如果你做了一件事
從某一方面會被感知是壞事
18:14
you can damage損傷 the other.
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另方面也會受到損害
18:16
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝
18:17
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Karen SONG
Reviewed by Gina Wang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Sutherland - Advertising guru
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment.

Why you should listen

From unlikely beginnings as a classics teacher to his current job as Vice Chairman of Ogilvy Group, Rory Sutherland has created his own brand of the Cinderella story. He joined Ogilvy & Mather's planning department in 1988, and became a junior copywriter, working on Microsoft's account in its pre-Windows days. An early fan of the Internet, he was among the first in the traditional ad world to see the potential in these relatively unknown technologies.

An immediate understanding of the possibilities of digital technology and the Internet powered Sutherland's meteoric rise. He continues to provide insight into advertising in the age of the Internet and social media through his blog at Campaign's Brand Republic site, his column "The Wiki Man" at The Spectator and his busy Twitter account.

More profile about the speaker
Rory Sutherland | Speaker | TED.com