English-Video.net comment policy

The comment field is common to all languages

Let's write in your language and use "Google Translate" together

Please refer to informative community guidelines on TED.com

TED2010

Bill Gates: Innovating to zero!

比爾蓋茲談能源 : 至零方休的革新 !

Filmed:
4,690,269 views

在TED2010比爾蓋茲揭示他對世界未來能源的願景,描述避免地球生態崩潰所需的"奇蹟",並說明為何他令人訝異的支持新型態的核子反應器。非做到不可的目標是甚麼?在2050年前達到全球性零碳排放。

- Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio

I'm going to talk today今天 about energy能源 and climate氣候.
今天我要談的是關於能量和氣候。
00:16
And that might威力 seem似乎 a bit surprising奇怪 because
這或許有點讓人意外,因為你們也知道
00:20
my full-time全職 work at the Foundation基礎 is mostly大多 about vaccines疫苗 and seeds種子,
我在基金會全職的工作主要關於疫苗和種子,
00:22
about the things that we need to invent發明 and deliver交付
這些急需要發明且散佈的事情
00:27
to help the poorest最窮 two billion十億 live生活 better lives生活.
以幫助20億貧民過更好生活。
00:30
But energy能源 and climate氣候 are extremely非常 important重要 to these people --
但是能源和氣候對這些人也極其重要,
00:35
in fact事實, more important重要 than to anyone任何人 else其他 on the planet行星.
實際上,比對地球其他人來說更重要。
00:40
The climate氣候 getting得到 worse更差 means手段 that many許多 years年份, their crops作物 won't慣於 grow增長:
氣候變得更壞,使得他們的穀物將有很多年無法成長。
00:45
There will be too much rain, not enough足夠 rain,
有時將有太多雨,有時將會雨量不足。
00:50
things will change更改 in ways方法
所有改變的方式
00:53
that their fragile脆弱 environment環境 simply只是 can't support支持.
以他們脆弱環境實在難以支撐。
00:55
And that leads引線 to starvation飢餓, it leads引線 to uncertainty不確定, it leads引線 to unrest動盪.
結果將導致飢餓。 導致不確定的恐慌和動亂。
00:59
So, the climate氣候 changes變化 will be terrible可怕 for them.
因此,氣候變化對於他們是十分可怕的。
01:04
Also, the price價錢 of energy能源 is very important重要 to them.
此外,能源的價格對他們非常重要。
01:08
In fact事實, if you could pick just one thing to lower降低 the price價錢 of,
實際上,如果你僅僅能挑一件東西降低價格,
01:11
to reduce減少 poverty貧窮, by far you would pick energy能源.
以降低貧困,目前能源是最佳選項。
01:14
Now, the price價錢 of energy能源 has come down over time.
現下,能源的價格已經下降好長一段時間。
01:18
Really advanced高級 civilization文明 is based基於 on advances進步 in energy能源.
真的,人類的文明進步是基於能量的進展。
01:22
The coal煤炭 revolution革命 fueled燃料 the Industrial產業 Revolution革命,
煤的革命點燃工業革命,
01:28
and, even in the 1900s we've我們已經 seen看到 a very rapid快速 decline下降 in the price價錢 of electricity電力,
並且,在20世紀我們看見電力的價格迅速下降。
01:32
and that's why we have refrigerators冰箱, air-conditioning空調,
因此我們才能擁有冰箱,空調系統,
01:38
we can make modern現代 materials物料 and do so many許多 things.
並且能製造進步的材料及那麼多東西。
01:41
And so, we're in a wonderful精彩 situation情況 with electricity電力 in the rich豐富 world世界.
也因此,我們處於一個有電力的美好富足世界。
01:45
But, as we make it cheaper便宜 -- and let's go for making製造 it twice兩次 as cheap低廉 --
如果,當我們使它更便宜 --讓我們努力使它兩倍便宜 --
01:52
we need to meet遇到 a new constraint約束,
我們就必須面臨新的限制,
01:59
and that constraint約束 has to do with COCO2.
這限制就是CO2(二氧化碳)。
02:01
COCO2 is warming變暖 the planet行星,
CO2使地球變暖,
02:05
and the equation方程 on COCO2 is actually其實 a very straightforward直截了當 one.
而描述CO2的方程式實際上是非常直觀的。
02:08
If you sum up the COCO2 that gets得到 emitted發射,
如果你把所有排出的CO2加起來,
02:14
that leads引線 to a temperature溫度 increase增加,
那就會導致溫度增加,
02:18
and that temperature溫度 increase增加 leads引線 to some very negative effects效果:
而溫度增加進而導致一些負面效果。
02:21
the effects效果 on the weather天氣; perhaps也許 worse更差, the indirect間接 effects效果,
這效應對天氣有影響,更糟的是或許是其他間接的效應
02:25
in that the natural自然 ecosystems生態系統 can't adjust調整 to these rapid快速 changes變化,
我們的自然生態系統不能適應這些迅速的變化,
02:28
and so you get ecosystem生態系統 collapses崩潰.
生態系統因而崩潰。
02:33
Now, the exact精確 amount of how you map地圖
現在對於精確的數據對應
02:36
from a certain某些 increase增加 of COCO2 to what temperature溫度 will be
例如在CO2的增加量與溫度上昇幅度的對應
02:39
and where the positive feedbacks反饋 are,
以及是否有正向的回饋的存在
02:43
there's some uncertainty不確定 there, but not very much.
有些不確定性但不算太多
02:45
And there's certainly當然 uncertainty不確定 about how bad those effects效果 will be,
當然對於這些效應有多糟的看法,也有不確定性
02:48
but they will be extremely非常 bad.
但方向上一定是相當糟的
02:51
I asked the top最佳 scientists科學家們 on this several一些 times:
我好幾次就這議題問過幾位頂尖的科學家,
02:54
Do we really have to get down to near zero?
我們真的必須將CO2減量至幾近零嗎?
02:56
Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter25美分硬幣?
只降一半或降至四分之一呢?
02:59
And the answer回答 is that until直到 we get near to zero,
而答案是直到我們降至零之前,
03:02
the temperature溫度 will continue繼續 to rise上升.
溫度還是繼續升高。
03:06
And so that's a big challenge挑戰.
所以這是一大挑戰。
03:08
It's very different不同 than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high十二英尺高 truck卡車 trying to get under a ten-foot十英尺 bridge,
這跟如何讓一輛12英尺高的卡車穿過一座10英尺高的橋完全不同,
03:10
and we can just sort分類 of squeeze under."
我們只能用力向下緊壓
03:15
This is something that has to get to zero.
要減量到零,有些事情必須考量。
03:18
Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide二氧化碳 every一切 year,
現在,我們每年排出許多二氧化碳,
03:22
over 26 billion十億 tons.
超過260億公頓。
03:26
For each American美國, it's about 20 tons;
大約是每名美國人20公頓。
03:28
for people in poor較差的 countries國家, it's less than one ton.
對窮國的人們來說,每人不到一公頓。
03:32
It's an average平均 of about five tons for everyone大家 on the planet行星.
地球上每人的平均大約5 公頓。
03:35
And, somehow不知何故, we have to make changes變化
不管如何,我們都必須改變
03:39
that will bring帶來 that down to zero.
以減量到零。
03:41
It's been constantly經常 going up.
它一直不斷上升。
03:44
It's only various各個 economic經濟 changes變化 that have even flattened扁平 it at all,
曾有各種各樣的經濟變化使它的趨勢平緩,
03:46
so we have to go from rapidly急速 rising升起
因此我們必須努力從迅速上升的趨勢
03:51
to falling落下, and falling落下 all the way to zero.
開始讓它下降,並且一路下降到零。
03:54
This equation方程 has four factors因素,
這個方程式有四個因子。
03:57
a little bit of multiplication乘法:
及簡單的相乘。
03:59
So, you've got a thing on the left, COCO2, that you want to get to zero,
因此,左式有一因子CO2,你想要它趨於零,
04:01
and that's going to be based基於 on the number of people,
而那必須基於「人口的數量」,
04:04
the services服務 each person's人的 using運用 on average平均,
「平均每人享用的服務」,
04:08
the energy能源 on average平均 for each service服務,
「每種服務的平均的能源」,
04:11
and the COCO2 being存在 put out per unit單元 of energy能源.
及「單位能源排出的CO2」。
04:14
So, let's look at each one of these
現在,讓我們逐一審視
04:18
and see how we can get this down to zero.
並且想想我們如何能把這變成零。
04:20
Probably大概, one of these numbers數字 is going to have to get pretty漂亮 near to zero.
或許,這些數字之一必須讓它趨近於零。
04:24
Now that's back from high school學校 algebra代數,
現在讓我們複習中學的代數,
04:28
but let's take a look.
讓我們瞧瞧。
04:31
First, we've我們已經 got population人口.
首先是人口。
04:33
The world世界 today今天 has 6.8 billion十億 people.
現下,世界有約68億人。
04:35
That's headed當家 up to about nine billion十億.
未來預計增到大約90億。
04:38
Now, if we do a really great job工作 on new vaccines疫苗,
現在,如果我們在新疫苗發展上有不錯的進展,
04:40
health健康 care關心, reproductive生殖 health健康 services服務,
包括醫療保健,生育保健服務
04:44
we could lower降低 that by, perhaps也許, 10 or 15 percent百分,
或許會降低約10~15%
04:46
but there we see an increase增加 of about 1.3.
但目前是增加約1.3%
04:50
The second第二 factor因子 is the services服務 we use.
第2 個因子是我們使用的服務。
04:54
This encompasses包括 everything:
這包含了所有的事情,
04:57
the food餐飲 we eat, clothing服裝, TV電視, heating加熱.
我們吃的食品,衣服,電視,暖氣。
04:59
These are very good things:
這些是非常好的東西,
05:03
getting得到 rid擺脫 of poverty貧窮 means手段 providing提供 these services服務
提供這些服務某種程度表示脫離了貧困
05:06
to almost幾乎 everyone大家 on the planet行星.
如果能遍及地球上所有的人。
05:09
And it's a great thing for this number to go up.
增加這數量其實是好事
05:11
In the rich豐富 world世界, perhaps也許 the top最佳 one billion十億,
在富有的世界,或許前10億人口,
05:15
we probably大概 could cut back and use less,
我們或許能縮減享受以減少用量,
05:17
but every一切 year, this number, on average平均, is going to go up,
但是每年,這平均數目是上升的,
05:19
and so, over all, that will more than double
整體說來,將來會成為兩倍以上
05:23
the services服務 delivered交付 per person.
提供每人所享有的服務量
05:27
Here we have a very basic基本 service服務:
現在我們來談一項非常基本的服務。
05:30
Do you have lighting燈光 in your house to be able能夠 to read your homework家庭作業?
你房子內有照明讓你能做你的家庭作業嗎?
05:32
And, in fact事實, these kids孩子 don't, so they're going out
實際上,很多孩子沒有,因此他們必須到屋外
05:35
and reading their school學校 work under the street lamps燈具.
並且在路燈下研讀他們的功課。
05:37
Now, efficiency效率, E, the energy能源 for each service服務,
再來,講到效率,E,指每種服務所需的能量,
05:42
here finally最後 we have some good news新聞.
總算有一些好消息。
05:46
We have something that's not going up.
某些事情並沒有增加。
05:48
Through通過 various各個 inventions發明 and new ways方法 of doing lighting燈光,
透過各式各樣的發明和製作照明設備的新方法,
05:50
through通過 different不同 types類型 of cars汽車, different不同 ways方法 of building建造 buildings房屋 --
透過不同的汽車類型,建築大樓的不同方法。
05:53
there are a lot of services服務 where you can bring帶來
有許多你所使用的服務
05:58
the energy能源 for that service服務 down quite相當 substantially基本上.
整體而言已大幅降低消耗的能量
06:01
Some individual個人 services服務 even bring帶來 it down by 90 percent百分.
某些項目甚至降了幾乎90%
06:05
There are other services服務 like how we make fertilizer肥料,
但仍有不少項目如肥料製造
06:08
or how we do air空氣 transport運輸,
及空中運輸等
06:11
where the rooms客房 for improvement起色 are far, far less.
能夠改善的空間實在不大
06:13
And so, overall總體 here, if we're optimistic樂觀,
因此概括的看,如果我們是樂觀主義者
06:17
we may可能 get a reduction減少 of a factor因子 of three to even, perhaps也許, a factor因子 of six.
我們有可能降低到三分之一,甚或到六分之一
06:19
But for these first three factors因素 now,
但是現在對這些前3 個因素來說,
06:26
we've我們已經 gone走了 from 26 billion十億 to, at best最好, maybe 13 billion十億 tons,
我們或許充其量從260億降到130億公頓,
06:29
and that just won't慣於 cut it.
且很難再往下降
06:34
So let's look at this fourth第四 factor因子 --
因此讓我們看第4因素 --
06:36
this is going to be a key one --
這將是關鍵的一項 --
06:38
and this is the amount of COCO2 put out per each unit單元 of energy能源.
每消耗單位能量所排出的CO2的數量。
06:40
And so the question is: Can you actually其實 get that to zero?
問題是,你真的能讓它趨於零?
06:46
If you burn燒傷 coal煤炭, no.
燃燒煤,不可能。
06:50
If you burn燒傷 natural自然 gas加油站, no.
燃燒天然氣,不可能。
06:52
Almost幾乎 every一切 way we make electricity電力 today今天,
幾乎我們今天用來發電的任一方法,
06:54
except for the emerging新興 renewables可再生能源 and nuclear, puts看跌期權 out COCO2.
除了新興的再生能源和核能,都會排出CO2。
06:57
And so, what we're going to have to do at a global全球 scale規模,
因此,我們以全球性角度考量將來必須做的,
07:03
is create創建 a new system系統.
是創建一新系統。
07:06
And so, we need energy能源 miracles奇蹟.
我們需要能源奇蹟。
07:09
Now, when I use the term術語 "miracle奇蹟," I don't mean something that's impossible不可能.
我這裡使用奇蹟這個詞,並不意味著不可能發生。
07:11
The microprocessor微處理器 is a miracle奇蹟. The personal個人 computer電腦 is a miracle奇蹟.
微處理器是一個奇蹟。 個人電腦是一個奇蹟。
07:15
The Internet互聯網 and its services服務 are a miracle奇蹟.
網際網路及其各項服務是一個奇蹟。
07:20
So, the people here have participated參加 in the creation創建 of many許多 miracles奇蹟.
因此,在場各位已經共同參與創造過很多奇蹟。
07:23
Usually平時, we don't have a deadline截止日期,
通常,我們不設期限,
07:28
where you have to get the miracle奇蹟 by a certain某些 date日期.
不要求你必須在某天讓奇蹟出現。
07:30
Usually平時, you just kind of stand by, and some come along沿, some don't.
通常,你只要努力準備好,有些會發生,有些則沒有。
07:32
This is a case案件 where we actually其實 have to drive駕駛 at full充分 speed速度
但在這件事上我們必須加足馬力
07:36
and get a miracle奇蹟 in a pretty漂亮 tight timeline時間線.
並在緊迫的時限內創造出奇蹟
07:40
Now, I thought, "How could I really capture捕獲 this?
現在,我在想,我如何才能辦得到?
07:45
Is there some kind of natural自然 illustration插圖,
是否有自然的圖示
07:48
some demonstration示範 that would grab people's人們 imagination想像力 here?"
或其他現成的範例可以讓人們想像?
07:50
I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos蚊子,
我回想起一年前我帶一罐蚊子來到這裡
07:55
and somehow不知何故 people enjoyed享受 that.
人們似乎覺得有趣
07:59
(Laughter笑聲)
(笑聲)
08:01
It really got them involved參與 in the idea理念 of,
這確實讓他們了解到
08:03
you know, there are people who live生活 with mosquitos蚊子.
不少人與蚊子生活在一起
08:06
So, with energy能源, all I could come up with is this.
所以,關於能源,我所能想到的就是這個
08:09
I decided決定 that releasing釋放 fireflies螢火蟲
我決定放些螢火蟲
08:14
would be my contribution貢獻 to the environment環境 here this year.
這可能是今年我對環境所做的貢獻
08:17
So here we have some natural自然 fireflies螢火蟲.
所以我們將有一些天然的螢火蟲
08:21
I'm told they don't bite; in fact事實, they might威力 not even leave離開 that jar.
我被告知這不會咬人,事實上,它們可能根本無法離開罐子
08:24
(Laughter笑聲)
(笑聲)
08:27
Now, there's all sorts排序 of gimmicky花哨 solutions解決方案 like that one,
現在有許多花拳繡腿的解決方案就如同剛剛的示範
08:30
but they don't really add up to much.
而它們實際的貢獻不大
08:35
We need solutions解決方案 -- either one or several一些 --
我們需要一個以上的方案
08:37
that have unbelievable難以置信的 scale規模
必須具有不可置信的規模
08:41
and unbelievable難以置信的 reliability可靠性,
以及難以想像的可靠性,
08:45
and, although雖然 there's many許多 directions方向 people are seeking,
雖然人們正追尋很多的方向,
08:47
I really only see five that can achieve實現 the big numbers數字.
我只看見5種方式,可能達到足夠的需求。
08:50
I've left out tide浪潮, geothermal地熱, fusion聚變, biofuels生物燃料.
我已經放棄潮汐、地熱、核融合及生質能
08:54
Those may可能 make some contribution貢獻,
這些當然都能有些貢獻
08:59
and if they can do better than I expect期望, so much the better,
但是必須比我預期的好很多、非常多才會有希望
09:01
but my key point here
我要說的重點是
09:03
is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,
我們將必須持續做這5項
09:05
and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting艱鉅,
我們不能因為氣餒而放棄它們
09:09
because they all have significant重大 challenges挑戰.
也不能因為有各項顯著挑戰而放棄
09:13
Let's look first at the burning燃燒 fossil化石 fuels燃料,
讓我們首先看石化燃料,
09:17
either burning燃燒 coal煤炭 or burning燃燒 natural自然 gas加油站.
無論是燃煤或者燒天然氣。
09:19
What you need to do there, seems似乎 like it might威力 be simple簡單, but it's not,
必需要做的好像很簡單,但是實際很困難,
09:23
and that's to take all the COCO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue煙道,
必須在燃燒後將CO2從煙中取出
09:26
pressurize加壓 it, create創建 a liquid液體, put it somewhere某處,
加壓液化並放置於某處
09:32
and hope希望 it stays入住 there.
並希望能保存在那兒
09:35
Now we have some pilot飛行員 things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent百分 level水平,
我們有一些先端的研究顯示可以做到百分之60到80的水準,
09:37
but getting得到 up to that full充分 percentage百分比, that will be very tricky狡猾,
但是做到全部, 那將非常難,
09:41
and agreeing同意 on where these COCO2 quantities數量 should be put will be hard,
此外選擇這些CO2同意存放的地點也將是艱難的課題,
09:45
but the toughest最艱難的 one here is this long-term長期 issue問題.
但是最困難的是長期的問題。
09:51
Who's誰是 going to be sure?
誰能確定?
09:54
Who's誰是 going to guarantee保證 something that is literally按照字面 billions數十億 of times larger
誰又能對比核廢料或其他廢料多數十億倍的東西
09:56
than any type類型 of waste浪費 you think of in terms條款 of nuclear or other things?
提出保證?
10:00
This is a lot of volume.
這體積十分可觀
10:04
So that's a tough強硬 one.
因此艱困可期
10:07
Next下一個 would be nuclear.
接著談到核能
10:09
It also has three big problems問題:
也有三個大問題。
10:11
Cost成本, particularly尤其 in highly高度 regulated調控 countries國家, is high;
成本花費,特別是在嚴格管制的國家,是相對高的。
10:14
the issue問題 of the safety安全, really feeling感覺 good about nothing could go wrong錯誤,
關於安全的問題,不會出錯聽起來感覺不錯,
10:18
that, even though雖然 you have these human人的 operators運營商,
但仍究有人為操作的問題,
10:22
that the fuel汽油 doesn't get used for weapons武器.
核燃料也不能用於武器
10:25
And then what do you do with the waste浪費?
然後,如何處理廢料?
10:28
And, although雖然 it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns關注 about that.
雖然它不是非常多,但是許多人在意此議題。
10:30
People need to feel good about it.
人們必須感到安心。
10:33
So three very tough強硬 problems問題 that might威力 be solvable可解,
這三個非常棘手的問題可能是能解決的
10:35
and so, should be worked工作 on.
因此,應該持續努力。
10:40
The last three of the five, I've grouped分組 together一起.
這五個中的其他三項,我打算一同討論。
10:42
These are what people often經常 refer參考 to as the renewable可再生 sources來源.
這些是人們經常提到的所謂再生能源。
10:45
And they actually其實 -- although雖然 it's great they don't require要求 fuel汽油 --
他們實際上 -- 雖然它們很偉大,他們不需要燃料 --
10:49
they have some disadvantages缺點.
但仍有一些不利條件。
10:53
One is that the density密度 of energy能源 gathered雲集 in these technologies技術
其一是這些技術所能蒐集能源的密度
10:55
is dramatically顯著 less than a power功率 plant.
大幅的少於一座電廠。
11:01
This is energy能源 farming農業, so you're talking about many許多 square廣場 miles英里,
這是能源農場,因此談的是好幾平方英里,
11:03
thousands數千 of time more area than you think of as a normal正常 energy能源 plant.
數千倍於你所能想到一個一般電廠的區域。
11:07
Also, these are intermittent斷斷續續的 sources來源.
此外,這些是間歇能源。
11:12
The sun太陽 doesn't shine閃耀 all day, it doesn't shine閃耀 every一切 day,
太陽光並非整天都有,也不是每日都能普照,
11:15
and, likewise同樣, the wind doesn't blow打擊 all the time.
同樣,風也不是颳吹無歇。
11:18
And so, if you depend依靠 on these sources來源,
因此,若你要依賴於這些能源,
11:21
you have to have some way of getting得到 the energy能源
你必須有得到能量的輔助方法
11:23
during those time periods that it's not available可得到.
以彌補無法提供的時段
11:26
So, we've我們已經 got big cost成本 challenges挑戰 here,
因此,我們有高成本的挑戰。
11:29
we have transmission傳輸 challenges挑戰:
我們有輸送的挑戰。
11:32
for example, say this energy能源 source資源 is outside your country國家;
例如,能源來自國外,
11:34
you not only need the technology技術,
你不僅需要技術,
11:37
but you have to deal合同 with the risk風險 of the energy能源 coming未來 from elsewhere別處.
還必須處理來自別處能量的各項風險。
11:39
And, finally最後, this storage存儲 problem問題.
最後,還有能源貯存問題。
11:44
And, to dimensionalize維度化 this, I went through通過 and looked看著 at
為了要評估容量,我仔細審視查閱
11:46
all the types類型 of batteries電池 that get made製作 --
目前各種型態的電池
11:49
for cars汽車, for computers電腦, for phones手機, for flashlights手電筒, for everything --
包括車用,電腦用,電話用,手電筒用及其他各種用途
11:52
and compared相比 that to the amount of electrical電動 energy能源 the world世界 uses使用,
把那與世界使用的電能數量相比,
11:56
and what I found發現 is that all the batteries電池 we make now
我發現目前完成所有的電池
12:01
could store商店 less than 10 minutes分鐘 of all the energy能源.
僅能儲存全世界不到10 分鐘所消耗的能量。
12:05
And so, in fact事實, we need a big breakthrough突破 here,
因此,實際上,我們需要一個大的突破,
12:09
something that's going to be a factor因子 of 100 better
那必須是一個100倍優於
12:12
than the approaches方法 we have now.
我們現有努力的方法。
12:16
It's not impossible不可能, but it's not a very easy簡單 thing.
它並非不可能,但是也絕非是件容易的事。
12:18
Now, this shows節目 up when you try to get the intermittent斷斷續續的 source資源
因此當你努力於得到間歇能源
12:22
to be above以上, say, 20 to 30 percent百分 of what you're using運用.
如上分析,頂多只能達到使用需求的20~30%
12:26
If you're counting數數 on it for 100 percent百分,
如果要100%的依賴它
12:30
you need an incredible難以置信 miracle奇蹟 battery電池.
你必須有奇蹟電池
12:32
Now, how we're going to go forward前鋒 on this -- what's the right approach途徑?
我們繼續談論這課題:正確的方向是什麼?
12:38
Is it a Manhattan曼哈頓 Project項目? What's the thing that can get us there?
它是一項曼哈頓計畫(製造原子彈的計畫)嗎? 能帶我們到達目標的是什麼?
12:41
Well, we need lots of companies公司 working加工 on this, hundreds數以百計.
嗯,我們需要數以百計的公司投入工作
12:45
In each of these five paths路徑, we need at least最小 a hundred people.
在這5 條道路中的每一項,至少需要100 人。
12:50
And a lot of them, you'll你會 look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.
當中的許多人,你會覺得他們看起來瘋了。 那倒不賴。
12:53
And, I think, here in the TEDTED group,
這裡是TED,因此我想
12:57
we have many許多 people who are already已經 pursuing追求 this.
應該有不少人已經投入了吧
13:00
Bill法案 Gross has several一些 companies公司, including包含 one called eSolareSolar公司
葛洛斯(Bill Gross)有幾家公司,其中一家叫eSolar
13:04
that has some great solar太陽能 thermal technologies技術.
有偉大的太陽熱技術。
13:08
Vinod維諾德 Khosla's科斯拉的 investing投資 in dozens許多 of companies公司
維諾德·科斯拉(Vinod Khosla)投資許多公司
13:10
that are doing great things and have interesting有趣 possibilities可能性,
進行許多偉大的事情並已達令人感到興趣的可能性,
13:14
and I'm trying to help back that.
目前我準備協助支持。
13:18
Nathan彌敦道 Myhrvold梅爾沃德 and I actually其實 are backing後盾 a company公司
內森·麥沃爾德(Nathan Myhrvold)和我事實上支持一家公司
13:20
that, perhaps也許 surprisingly出奇, is actually其實 taking服用 the nuclear approach途徑.
或許你會訝異,實際上是採取核能的方向。
13:24
There are some innovations創新 in nuclear: modular模塊化, liquid液體.
在核能界有一些創新,小型模組化反應器,液態反應器。
13:28
And innovation革新 really stopped停止 in this industry行業 quite相當 some ago,
不久前這個領域的創新停滯一段時間,
13:32
so the idea理念 that there's some good ideas思路 laying鋪設 around is not all that surprising奇怪.
所以在此多少有一些好想法不足為奇
13:36
The idea理念 of TerraPowerTerraPower is that, instead代替 of burning燃燒 a part部分 of uranium --
至於Terrapower公司的想法,不是只燃燒鈾的一部分,
13:41
the one percent百分, which哪一個 is the U235 --
約百分之一,也就是是U235(鈾235),
13:47
we decided決定, "Let's burn燒傷 the 99 percent百分, the U238."
我們決定,設法燃燒百分之99,U238(鈾238)。
13:50
It is kind of a crazy idea理念.
這想法有點兒瘋狂。
13:55
In fact事實, people had talked about it for a long time,
實際上,人們已經談論它很久,
13:57
but they could never simulate模擬 properly正確 whether是否 it would work or not,
但他們無法適當的模擬確認是否能做到,
14:00
and so it's through通過 the advent來臨 of modern現代 supercomputers超級計算機
因此藉由現代超級電腦的進步
14:04
that now you can simulate模擬 and see that, yes,
現在你能模擬並且發現這是可行的,
14:07
with the right material's材料的 approach途徑, this looks容貌 like it would work.
只要材料改進方法正確,它將可成功運行。
14:09
And, because you're burning燃燒 that 99 percent百分,
且因為你是燃燒那百分之99,
14:15
you have greatly非常 improved改善 cost成本 profile輪廓.
已經大大改進成本結構。
14:18
You actually其實 burn燒傷 up the waste浪費, and you can actually其實 use as fuel汽油
實際上是消耗掉廢料, 也就是將廢料作為燃料
14:22
all the leftover waste浪費 from today's今天的 reactors反應堆.
想想來自今天核電廠全部的廢料。
14:26
So, instead代替 of worrying令人擔憂 about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.
因此,不必再擔心核廢料問題,而是利用它。 這多棒啊。
14:29
It breathes吐氣 this uranium as it goes along沿, so it's kind of like a candle蠟燭.
它實行時消耗鈾。 就像蠟燭燃燒一樣。
14:34
You can see it's a log日誌 there, often經常 referred簡稱 to as a traveling旅行 wave reactor反應堆.
它就像是根木材,通常稱為推旅波式反應器(Traveling Wave Reactor,TWR)。
14:38
In terms條款 of fuel汽油, this really solves解決了 the problem問題.
就燃料而言,這真的解決了問題。
14:42
I've got a picture圖片 here of a place地點 in Kentucky肯塔基.
我這裡有在美國肯德基州一處的照片。
14:46
This is the leftover, the 99 percent百分,
這就是殘留的百分之99
14:49
where they've他們已經 taken採取 out the part部分 they burn燒傷 now,
在這裡他們已經取出可燃燒的部分(即U235),
14:51
so it's called depleted耗盡 uranium.
因此它被稱為耗乏鈾(U238)。
14:53
That would power功率 the U.S. for hundreds數以百計 of years年份.
這將能提供美國數百年的電力。
14:55
And, simply只是 by filtering濾波 seawater海水 in an inexpensive便宜 process處理,
僅僅需透過一個廉價的海水過濾程序,
14:58
you'd have enough足夠 fuel汽油 for the entire整個 lifetime一生 of the rest休息 of the planet行星.
你將有足夠的燃料提供撐過地球整個壽命的能量。
15:01
So, you know, it's got lots of challenges挑戰 ahead,
因此,你知道,即使它須面對許多挑戰,
15:06
but it is an example of the many許多 hundreds數以百計 and hundreds數以百計 of ideas思路
但這是數百種想法中的一個例子
15:10
that we need to move移動 forward前鋒.
驅使我們向前
15:15
So let's think: How should we measure測量 ourselves我們自己?
現在讓我們想像,我們應該怎樣評量自己?
15:18
What should our report報告 card look like?
我們的工作成績鑑定表該像什麼?
15:21
Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,
現在讓我們看未來的目標應設定在哪裡
15:24
and then look at the intermediate中間.
對於中期目標而言
15:27
For 2050, you've heard聽說 many許多 people talk about this 80 percent百分 reduction減少.
到了2050年,你會聽到很多人談到減量80%的事
15:29
That really is very important重要, that we get there.
到那時,這真的是十分重要的事
15:34
And that 20 percent百分 will be used up by things going on in poor較差的 countries國家,
還有20%則是窮國需要的消耗
15:38
still some agriculture農業,
例如農業的需求
15:42
hopefully希望 we will have cleaned清洗 up forestry林業, cement水泥.
希望到時已經解決林業、水泥等問題
15:44
So, to get to that 80 percent百分,
因此,要到達減量百分之80,
15:48
the developed發達 countries國家, including包含 countries國家 like China中國,
已開發國家,包括像中國這樣的國家,
15:51
will have had to switch開關 their electricity電力 generation altogether.
都須同時改變電力產生的方式
15:55
So, the other grade年級 is: Are we deploying部署 this zero-emission零排放 technology技術,
所以,下個階段,當我們部署這項零排放的技術時,
16:00
have we deployed部署 it in all the developed發達 countries國家
我們在全部已開發國家都利用它
16:06
and we're in the process處理 of getting得到 it elsewhere別處?
並且持續進行在其他國家的部署。
16:08
That's super important重要.
那超級重要的。
16:11
That's a key element元件 of making製造 that report報告 card.
那是我們制定工作成績鑑定表的關鍵要素。
16:13
So, backing後盾 up from there, what should the 2020 report報告 card look like?
從那裡退回來,2020的 工作成績鑑定表應該像什麼?
16:17
Well, again, it should have the two elements分子.
同樣的,它應該有兩個要素。
16:22
We should go through通過 these efficiency效率 measures措施 to start開始 getting得到 reductions減少:
我們應該審視這些效率評估,並開始進行減量。
16:24
The less we emit發射, the less that sum will be of COCO2,
CO2排的越少,空氣的總量也會較少
16:28
and, therefore因此, the less the temperature溫度.
因此,溫度跟著較低。
16:31
But in some ways方法, the grade年級 we get there,
在這階段,就幾方面來說
16:33
doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions減少,
作些無法達到大幅減量的事
16:36
is only equally一樣, or maybe even slightly less, important重要 than the other,
只能持平或微量減少,其重要性較諸其他
16:40
which哪一個 is the piece of innovation革新 on these breakthroughs突破.
只是突破性創新的一小部份
16:44
These breakthroughs突破, we need to move移動 those at full充分 speed速度,
我們所需的突破必須是加足馬力衝刺
16:48
and we can measure測量 that in terms條款 of companies公司,
並能使用各像參數評估如參與公司數
16:51
pilot飛行員 projects項目, regulatory監管 things that have been changed.
先期計畫及已修訂的法規等
16:54
There's a lot of great books圖書 that have been written書面 about this.
有許多經典著作已經提到這個。
16:57
The Al Gore血塊 book, "Our Choice選擇"
高爾的書,「我們的抉擇」
17:00
and the David大衛 McKay麥凱 book, "Sustainable可持續發展 Energy能源 Without沒有 the Hot Air空氣."
以及大衛馬凱的書,「永續能源:免除地獄的業火」
17:03
They really go through通過 it and create創建 a framework骨架
他們加以審視並且建立一種架構
17:06
that this can be discussed討論 broadly寬廣地,
這可以被廣泛地討論,
17:09
because we need broad廣闊 backing後盾 for this.
因為我們需要得到廣泛的支持。
17:11
There's a lot that has to come together一起.
還有很多必須加以整合
17:14
So this is a wish希望.
因此這是一個願望。
17:16
It's a very concrete具體 wish希望 that we invent發明 this technology技術.
我們要發明這項技術,是個非常具體的願望。
17:18
If you gave me only one wish希望 for the next下一個 50 years年份 --
如果你今後50年中只能讓我一個願望成真,
17:22
I could pick who's誰是 president主席,
我能指定誰當總統
17:25
I could pick a vaccine疫苗, which哪一個 is something I love,
我能指定一種疫苗的出現,那是我最愛的事
17:27
or I could pick that this thing
或我能選擇這件事
17:30
that's half the cost成本 with no COCO2 gets得到 invented發明 --
只要一半的花費就能發明無CO2排放的技術
17:32
this is the wish希望 I would pick.
這將是我會選擇的願望
17:36
This is the one with the greatest最大 impact碰撞.
這願望會有最大的影響力
17:38
If we don't get this wish希望,
如果無法完成這願望
17:40
the division between之間 the people who think short term術語 and long term術語 will be terrible可怕,
長期與短期來看人們間差距將變的十分可怕
17:42
between之間 the U.S. and China中國, between之間 poor較差的 countries國家 and rich豐富,
在美國與中國之間,窮國與富國之間
17:46
and most of all the lives生活 of those two billion十億 will be far worse更差.
20億貧民中的大部分人生活將變得更壞。
17:49
So, what do we have to do?
因此,我們必須做什麼?
17:54
What am I appealing吸引人的 to you to step forward前鋒 and drive駕駛?
我在呼籲你們向前並且推動的是什麼?
17:56
We need to go for more research研究 funding資金.
我們急需更多的研究資金
18:01
When countries國家 get together一起 in places地方 like Copenhagen哥本哈根,
當許多國家聚集在某處如哥本哈根
18:04
they shouldn't不能 just discuss討論 the COCO2.
他們不該只討論CO2。
18:06
They should discuss討論 this innovation革新 agenda議程,
他們應該討論這項創新議程,
18:09
and you'd be stunned目瞪口呆 at the ridiculously可笑 low levels水平 of spending開支
你會訝異願意投入在此的經費是如此低
18:11
on these innovative創新 approaches方法.
即使這些是多麼具創新的方案
18:16
We do need the market市場 incentives獎勵 -- COCO2 tax, cap and trade貿易 --
我們確實需要市場獎勵,CO2稅,限額交易,
18:18
something that gets得到 that price價錢 signal信號 out there.
一些能反映到價格上的機制
18:22
We need to get the message信息 out.
我們需要將訊息傳佈出去
18:25
We need to have this dialogue對話 be a more rational合理的, more understandable可理解 dialogue對話,
我們需要更理性與可理解的對話
18:27
including包含 the steps腳步 that the government政府 takes.
包括政府所採行的步驟
18:30
This is an important重要 wish希望, but it is one I think we can achieve實現.
這是個重要的願望,但這也是我們能做到的。
18:33
Thank you.
謝謝。
18:37
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
18:39
Thank you.
謝謝。
18:50
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Thank you. Thank you.
(克力斯安德森,以下CA):謝謝。 謝謝。
18:52
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
18:54
Thank you. So to understand理解 more about TerraPowerTerraPower, right --
謝謝。如此讓我對泰拉能源公司(Terrapower)多了解一些,沒說錯吧--
18:59
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale規模 of investment投資 this is?
首先,請讓我們大概了解這項投資的規模有多大?
19:05
Bil膽紅素 Gates蓋茨: To actually其實 do the software軟件, buy購買 the supercomputer超級計算機,
(比爾蓋茲,以下BG):實際上超級電腦的軟體
19:10
hire聘請 all the great scientists科學家們, which哪一個 we've我們已經 doneDONE,
及僱用一些偉大的科學家等已經做的
19:14
that's only tens of millions百萬,
只花費約幾千萬美金
19:16
and even once一旦 we test測試 our materials物料 out in a Russian俄語 reactor反應堆
每次對於材料方法在俄羅斯反應器的測試
19:19
to make sure that our materials物料 work properly正確,
以確定是否可行
19:22
then you'll你會 only be up in the hundreds數以百計 of millions百萬.
則需花費約幾億美金
19:26
The tough強硬 thing is building建造 the pilot飛行員 reactor反應堆;
最困難的是建立先期試驗性的反應器
19:28
finding發現 the several一些 billion十億, finding發現 the regulator調節器, the location位置
必須尋求數十億資金、尋求法規支持、還有地點
19:31
that will actually其實 build建立 the first one of these.
才可能建立完成第一座
19:36
Once一旦 you get the first one built內置, if it works作品 as advertised廣告,
一旦建造了第一座,它就成了活廣告
19:38
then it's just clear明確 as day, because the economics經濟學, the energy能源 density密度,
隨著時間將讓大家明白,因為經濟學、能量密度等考量
19:42
are so different不同 than nuclear as we know it.
和我們理解的核能大不相同
19:46
CACA: And so, to understand理解 it right, this involves涉及 building建造 deep into the ground地面
CA:我再確認一下,是不是要有深入地下的建築
19:48
almost幾乎 like a vertical垂直 kind of column of nuclear fuel汽油,
就像垂直的核燃料柱
19:52
of this sort分類 of spent花費 uranium,
裡面充滿鈾廢料
19:56
and then the process處理 starts啟動 at the top最佳 and kind of works作品 down?
整個核反應由上往下進行呢?
19:58
BGBG: That's right. Today今天, you're always refueling加油 the reactor反應堆,
BG︰ 沒錯。 今天,反應器總是需重新裝填核燃料,
20:01
so you have lots of people and lots of controls控制 that can go wrong錯誤:
因此許多人為和許多控制可能出錯,
20:04
that thing where you're opening開盤 it up and moving移動 things in and out,
因為你必須打開它並將一些物質移進移出的。
20:07
that's not good.
我不認為那是好事。
20:10
So, if you have very cheap低廉 fuel汽油 that you can put 60 years年份 in --
因此,如果你有非常便宜的燃料且能放置60 年 --
20:12
just think of it as a log日誌 --
就當它是一根木材 --
20:17
put it down and not have those same相同 complexities複雜性.
把它放下去並沒有那麼複雜。
20:19
And it just sits坐鎮 there and burns燒傷 for the 60 years年份, and then it's doneDONE.
就讓它呆在那裡並且燃燒60 年,一切都解決了。
20:22
CACA: It's a nuclear power功率 plant that is its own擁有 waste浪費 disposal處置 solution.
CA:所以這是一座能自己處置核廢料的核能發電廠。
20:27
BGBG: Yeah. Well, what happens發生 with the waste浪費,
BG︰ 是的。 嗯,關於核廢料的部份
20:31
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste浪費 under this approach途徑 --
就讓它留在那裡 -- 用這種方法產生較少的廢料 --
20:33
then you can actually其實 take that,
而且能取出處理,
20:38
and put it into another另一個 one and burn燒傷 that.
並且把它放進另一個反應器燃燒。
20:40
And we start開始 off actually其實 by taking服用 the waste浪費 that exists存在 today今天,
事實上我們可以由現有的核廢料開始
20:43
that's sitting坐在 in these cooling冷卻 pools or dry caskingcasking by reactors反應堆 --
目前都存在冷卻水槽或乾式儲存護箱內
20:47
that's our fuel汽油 to begin開始 with.
這些是可以開始使用的燃料
20:51
So, the thing that's been a problem問題 from those reactors反應堆
因此,這些曾被視為問題的核反應器
20:53
is actually其實 what gets得到 fed美聯儲 into ours我們的,
可以裝入我們的裝置
20:56
and you're reducing減少 the volume of the waste浪費 quite相當 dramatically顯著
因而大幅降低核廢料的體積
20:58
as you're going through通過 this process處理.
並同時進行發電的程序
21:01
CACA: I mean, you're talking to different不同 people around the world世界
CA:你對全世界不同的人談論這議題
21:03
about the possibilities可能性 here.
及其可能性
21:05
Where is there most interest利益 in actually其實 doing something with this?
哪些地方對於實際進行此計畫最感興趣?
21:07
BGBG: Well, we haven't沒有 picked採摘的 a particular特定 place地點,
BG︰ 嗯,我們沒特別挑什麼地方,
21:10
and there's all these interesting有趣 disclosure洩露 rules規則 about anything that's called "nuclear,"
關於核能的任何事情總是有人表示興趣
21:13
so we've我們已經 got a lot of interest利益,
有不少人向我們表達興趣
21:21
that people from the company公司 have been in Russia俄國, India印度, China中國 --
例如來自俄羅斯、印度、中國等國公司的人們
21:23
I've been back seeing眼看 the secretary秘書 of energy能源 here,
我曾遇過能源部長,
21:27
talking about how this fits適合 into the energy能源 agenda議程.
並討論如何將此置入能量議程。
21:29
So I'm optimistic樂觀. You know, the French法國 and Japanese日本 have doneDONE some work.
因此我很樂觀。 你知道法國和日本已經完成了一些工作。
21:33
This is a variant變種 on something that has been doneDONE.
他們所完成的與這提的並不相同
21:36
It's an important重要 advance提前, but it's like a fast快速 reactor反應堆,
那是很重要的進展,但那像是個快滋生反應器(fast reactor)
21:40
and a lot of countries國家 have built內置 them,
有不少國家參與建造
21:44
so anybody任何人 who's誰是 doneDONE a fast快速 reactor反應堆 is a candidate候選人 to be where the first one gets得到 built內置.
所以任何有快滋生反應器的地方,將會是我們考量第一座電廠的候選場址
21:46
CACA: So, in your mind心神, timescale時間表 and likelihood可能性
CA:因此,在你的頭腦裡,時間規模和各項可能
21:51
of actually其實 taking服用 something like this live生活?
在這輩子能夠完成到什麼狀況呢?
21:56
BGBG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale高規模, electro-generation電代 things
BG:嗯,我們需要建立一個大規模、發電系統
21:59
that's very cheap低廉,
且必須非常便宜,
22:04
we have 20 years年份 to invent發明 and then 20 years年份 to deploy部署.
我們只有20 年來發明並用20 年來部署。
22:06
That's sort分類 of the deadline截止日期 that the environmental環境的 models楷模
這期限來自環境模型的推演
22:10
have shown顯示 us that we have to meet遇到.
而我們必須去正視且遵循
22:15
And, you know, TerraPowerTerraPower, if things go well -- which哪一個 is wishing希望 for a lot --
你知道嗎,如果一切順利,我們期許泰拉能源公司
22:17
could easily容易 meet遇到 that.
可以輕易達成目標。
22:22
And there are, fortunately幸好 now, dozens許多 of companies公司 --
幸運的是現在有數十家公司
22:24
we need it to be hundreds數以百計 --
而我們需要的是數百家
22:27
who, likewise同樣, if their science科學 goes well,
同樣的,如果他們科技發展一切順利
22:29
if the funding資金 for their pilot飛行員 plants植物 goes well,
如果他們建立先期試驗電廠集資順利
22:31
that they can compete競爭 for this.
他們就能有競爭力
22:34
And it's best最好 if multiple succeed成功,
當然如果有多重方法成功那更好
22:36
because then you could use a mix混合 of these things.
那我們就可以妥為混用這些技術
22:38
We certainly當然 need one to succeed成功.
我們就是需要一項解決技術的成功
22:41
CACA: In terms條款 of big-scale大尺度 possible可能 game遊戲 changes變化,
CA:若考量大規模的競爭環境變化
22:43
is this the biggest最大 that you're aware知道的 of out there?
這是您所知道最具優勢的方案嗎?
22:46
BGBG: An energy能源 breakthrough突破 is the most important重要 thing.
BG:能源技術突破是最重要的事情。
22:49
It would have been, even without the environmental環境的 constraint約束,
就算不考慮環境侷限也該如此
22:53
but the environmental環境的 constraint約束 just makes品牌 it so much greater更大.
而因為環境侷限讓他顯得更偉大
22:55
In the nuclear space空間, there are other innovators創新.
在核能領域,仍有其他創新者
23:00
You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,
我們對他們的不了解可能和我們對這的了解一樣多
23:03
but the modular模塊化 people, that's a different不同 approach途徑.
對於提倡小型模組化反應器的人來說,那是另一種處理方式
23:06
There's a liquid-type液體型 reactor反應堆, which哪一個 seems似乎 a little hard,
還有液態反應器感覺上很困難
23:09
but maybe they say that about us.
但也許他們看我們也是一樣的想法
23:13
And so, there are different不同 ones那些,
確實有其他方案
23:15
but the beauty美女 of this is a molecule分子 of uranium
但是美妙之處都在於鈾分子
23:18
has a million百萬 times as much energy能源 as a molecule分子 of, say, coal煤炭,
具有其他分子如煤炭,百萬倍以上的能量
23:21
and so -- if you can deal合同 with the negatives底片,
因此如果能夠處理好負面效應
23:25
which哪一個 are essentially實質上 the radiation輻射 --
通常指輻射
23:28
the footprint腳印 and cost成本, the potential潛在,
碳足跡、成本、發展潛力
23:31
in terms條款 of effect影響 on land土地 and various各個 things,
包含對陸地與其他事務的效應
23:34
is almost幾乎 in a class of its own擁有.
那都可視為是相同等級的方案
23:36
CACA: If this doesn't work, then what?
CA:如果不成功,該怎麼辦?
23:40
Do we have to start開始 taking服用 emergency measures措施
是否要啟動緊急機制
23:44
to try and keep the temperature溫度 of the earth地球 stable穩定?
以試圖保持地球溫度的穩定?
23:48
BGBG: If you get into that situation情況,
BG:如果到了那種狀況
23:51
it's like if you've been over-eating過度進食, and you're about to have a heart attack攻擊:
就好像你已過度飲食,心臟病就要發作了
23:53
Then where do you go? You may可能 need heart surgery手術 or something.
你要怎麼辦呢?可能要動心臟手術或其他處理。
23:58
There is a line of research研究 on what's called geoengineering地球工程,
有一系列研究稱為大地工程
24:02
which哪一個 are various各個 techniques技術 that would delay延遲 the heating加熱
那是延遲暖化的各種技術
24:06
to buy購買 us 20 or 30 years年份 to get our act法案 together一起.
以爭取增加20或者30 年的緩衝時間整合我們的行動。
24:09
Now, that's just an insurance保險 policy政策.
現下,那只是一項保險政策。
24:12
You hope希望 you don't need to do that.
你會希望不要用到
24:14
Some people say you shouldn't不能 even work on the insurance保險 policy政策
有些人會說你不應該投入進行保險政策
24:16
because it might威力 make you lazy,
因為它可能使你偷懶,
24:18
that you'll你會 keep eating because you know heart surgery手術 will be there to save保存 you.
它會使你一直吃,因為你知道有心臟手術將會救你。
24:20
I'm not sure that's wise明智的, given特定 the importance重要性 of the problem問題,
我不能確信是否明智,如果考量問題的重要性,
24:24
but there's now the geoengineering地球工程 discussion討論
現在有關於大地工程的討論
24:27
about -- should that be in the back pocket口袋 in case案件 things happen發生 faster更快,
談論是要將此技術置於後口袋,以免變化快於預期?
24:31
or this innovation革新 goes a lot slower比較慢 than we expect期望?
或是該減慢這項創新
24:35
CACA: Climate氣候 skeptics懷疑論者: If you had a sentence句子 or two to say to them,
CA:對於氣候懷疑論者,你有什麼話要對他們說,
24:40
how might威力 you persuade說服 them that they're wrong錯誤?
你如何說服他們說他們錯了?
24:45
BGBG: Well, unfortunately不幸, the skeptics懷疑論者 come in different不同 camps營地.
BG:嗯,令人遺憾,那些懷疑者來自不同的陣營。
24:50
The ones那些 who make scientific科學 arguments參數 are very few少數.
他們很少提出科學的論點。
24:54
Are they saying that there's negative feedback反饋 effects效果
他們有提到必須考量雲層抵銷
24:58
that have to do with clouds that offset抵消 things?
的負回饋效應嗎?
25:01
There are very, very few少數 things that they can even say
他們所能談的不多
25:03
there's a chance機會 in a million百萬 of those things.
這兒有成千上萬的例子
25:06
The main主要 problem問題 we have here, it's kind of like AIDS艾滋病.
現在主要的問題就像愛滋病
25:09
You make the mistake錯誤 now, and you pay工資 for it a lot later後來.
現在做錯誤的決定,未來要付出更多
25:12
And so, when you have all sorts排序 of urgent緊急 problems問題,
所以當你有些急迫的問題
25:16
the idea理念 of taking服用 pain疼痛 now that has to do with a gain獲得 later後來,
記得寧可現在嚐栽種之苦,未來才有收穫--
25:20
and a somewhat有些 uncertain不確定 pain疼痛 thing --
更何況未來還有不可知的痛苦等著
25:23
in fact事實, the IPCCIPCC report報告, that's not necessarily一定 the worst最差 case案件,
實際上,IPPC報告所提,還不一定是最壞情況,
25:26
and there are people in the rich豐富 world世界 who look at IPCCIPCC
在富有的世界有人看IPPC報告
25:32
and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal合同."
會覺得還好啊,那有什麼大不了。
25:34
The fact事實 is it's that uncertain不確定 part部分 that should move移動 us towards this.
事實上還有不確定的部份驅使著我們朝這方向前進
25:38
But my dream夢想 here is that, if you can make it economic經濟,
但我的夢想是,是否能使它更經濟,
25:42
and meet遇到 the COCO2 constraints限制,
並且符合CO2 限制,
25:45
then the skeptics懷疑論者 say, "OK,
然後那些懷疑論者會說:「好吧,
25:47
I don't care關心 that it doesn't put out COCO2,
我不在乎它是否排CO2,
25:49
I kind of wish希望 it did put out COCO2,
我還希望能排出點CO2呢,
25:51
but I guess猜測 I'll accept接受 it because it's cheaper便宜 than what's come before."
但是我猜我會接受它,因為這比以前來的便宜。」
25:53
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
25:57
CACA: And so, that would be your response響應 to the Bjorn比約恩 Lomborg隆伯格 argument論據,
CA:我想那也是你對藍博(Bjorn Lomborg)論點的回應
26:01
that basically基本上 if you spend all this energy能源 trying to solve解決 the COCO2 problem問題,
那論點基本上是指如果所有資源都拿去解決CO2問題
26:05
it's going to take away all your other goals目標
那將排擠其他所有目標
26:09
of trying to rid擺脫 the world世界 of poverty貧窮 and malaria瘧疾 and so forth向前,
例如遠離貧窮與瘧疾等其他議題
26:11
it's a stupid waste浪費 of the Earth's地球 resources資源 to put money towards that
把錢放在CO2上是地球資源愚蠢的浪費
26:14
when there are better things we can do.
有更重要的事要做
26:18
BGBG: Well, the actual實際 spending開支 on the R&D piece --
BG:嗯,實際在研發上的花費 --
26:20
say the U.S. should spend 10 billion十億 a year more than it is right now --
我必須說美國每年應該投入比現在多100億 --
26:23
it's not that dramatic戲劇性.
這不誇張。
26:27
It shouldn't不能 take away from other things.
它不應該排擠其他事情。
26:29
The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable合理 people can disagree不同意,
如果你要花費一筆大錢,當然人們是不同意的
26:31
is when you have something that's non-economic非經濟 and you're trying to fund基金 that --
尤其是集資的目的是花在不經濟的議題上
26:34
that, to me, mostly大多 is a waste浪費.
而那些大多對我來說是浪費
26:37
Unless除非 you're very close and you're just funding資金 the learning學習 curve曲線
除非你十分封閉且只資助學習曲線
26:40
and it's going to get very cheap低廉,
而未來會變很便宜的
26:43
I believe we should try more things that have a potential潛在
我相信我們應嘗試各項有潛力的事
26:45
to be far less expensive昂貴.
以讓能源價格大幅降低
26:49
If the trade-off交易 you get into is, "Let's make energy能源 super expensive昂貴,"
如果你參與的交易,是要讓能源更貴
26:51
then the rich豐富 can afford給予 that.
那只有富人能享有。
26:56
I mean, all of us here could pay工資 five times as much for our energy能源
我的意思是,在場各位都能對於我們的能源付五倍的錢
26:58
and not change更改 our lifestyle生活方式.
而不需改變我們的生活模式。
27:01
The disaster災害 is for that two billion十億.
受害的是最窮的20億人。
27:03
And even Lomborg隆伯格 has changed.
就算蘭博也已經改變。
27:05
His shtick特殊才能 now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting得到 more discussed討論?"
他現在的重點在於為何不多加討論研發
27:07
He's still, because of his earlier stuff東東,
因為他早期關心的題材,
27:12
still associated相關 with the skeptic懷疑論者 camp,
仍然與懷疑論陣營有關,
27:14
but he's realized實現 that's a pretty漂亮 lonely孤獨 camp,
不過他意識到那是一個相當孤獨的陣營,
27:16
and so, he's making製造 the R&D point.
所以他現在專注於研發議題
27:19
And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate適當.
順著這脈絡,我想這樣說是適當的
27:22
The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded資助.
關於研發這塊,它所獲得的資金真是少的誇張。
27:27
CACA: Well Bill法案, I suspect疑似 I speak說話 on the behalf代表 of most people here
CA:好的比爾,我懷疑我是在幫在場的人請命
27:30
to say I really hope希望 your wish希望 comes true真正. Thank you so much.
老實說,我真的希望你的願望實現。 非常感謝。
27:33
BGBG: Thank you.
BG:謝謝。
27:36
(Applause掌聲)
(掌聲)
27:38
Translated by ChiChang Liu
Reviewed by Chia-Feng Yang

▲Back to top

About the speaker:

Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.

Why you should listen

Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.

In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.

Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com